The Global Financial Crisis and Its Impact on China and East Asia Lawrence J. Lau, Ph. D. President and Ralph and Claire Landau Professor of Economics The Chinese University of Hong Kong and Kwoh-Ting Li Professor in Economic Development, Emeritus, Stanford University KPMG Global Board Meeting Hong Kong, 9 June 29 Phone: (852) 269-86; Fax: (852) 263-523 Email: LAWRENCELAU@CUHK.EDU.HK; WebPages: HTTP://WWW.CUHK.EDU.HK/VC
Case-Shiller U.S. Home Price Index, US$- Euro Exchange Rate & the S&P 5 Index 25 2 Comparison of Case-Shiller Home Price Index, S&P 5 Index and the Exchange Rate of U.S. Dollar (2Q1=1) Case-Shiller Home Price Index USD per Euro Index S&P 5 Index 15 1 5 Lawrence J. Lau, The Chinese University of Hong Kong 2 Jan- Apr- Jul- Oct- Jan-1 Apr-1 Jul-1 Oct-1 Jan-2 Apr-2 Jul-2 Oct-2 Jan-3 Apr-3 Jul-3 Oct-3 Jan-4 Apr-4 Jul-4 Oct-4 Jan-5 Apr-5 Jul-5 Oct-5 Jan-6 Apr-6 Jul-6 Oct-6 Jan-7 Apr-7 Jul-7 Oct-7 Jan-8 Apr-8 Jul-8 Oct-8 Jan-9 Apr-9 Month 2Q1=1
U.S. Unemployment Rate Seasonally Adjusted 1. Monthly Rates of U.S. Unemployment, seasonally adjusted 9.5 9. 8.5 8. 7.5 7. 6.5 6. 5.5 5. 4.5 4. 3.5 3. 2.5 2. Lawrence J. Lau, The Chinese University of Hong Kong 3 Jan-94 Apr-94 Jul-94 Oct-94 Jan-95 Apr-95 Jul-95 Oct-95 Jan-96 Apr-96 Jul-96 Oct-96 Jan-97 Apr-97 Jul-97 Oct-97 Jan-98 Apr-98 Jul-98 Oct-98 Jan-99 Apr-99 Jul-99 Oct-99 Jan- Apr- Jul- Oct- Jan-1 Apr-1 Jul-1 Oct-1 Jan-2 Apr-2 Jul-2 Oct-2 Jan-3 Apr-3 Jul-3 Oct-3 Jan-4 Apr-4 Jul-4 Oct-4 Jan-5 Apr-5 Jul-5 Oct-5 Jan-6 Apr-6 Jul-6 Oct-6 Jan-7 Apr-7 Jul-7 Oct-7 Jan-8 Apr-8 Jul-8 Oct-8 Jan-9 Apr-9 Percent Month
Exchange Rates of Selected East Asian Economies (1/2/27=1) 17 Exchange Rate Index (1/2/27=1) of Selected Countries/Regions 16 15 14 Japanese Yen Chinese Yuan Hong Kong Dollar Indian Rupee Indonesia Rupiah Malaysia Ringgit Philippine Peso Singapore Dollar Korean Won New Taiwan Dollar Thai Baht 13 12 11 1 9 8 7 1/2/7 1/16/7 1/3/7 2/13/7 2/27/7 3/13/7 3/27/7 4/1/7 4/24/7 5/8/7 5/22/7 6/5/7 6/19/7 7/3/7 7/17/7 7/31/7 8/14/7 8/28/7 9/11/7 9/25/7 1/9/7 1/23/7 11/6/7 11/2/7 12/4/7 12/18/7 1/1/8 1/15/8 1/29/8 2/12/8 2/26/8 3/11/8 3/25/8 4/8/8 4/22/8 5/6/8 5/2/8 6/3/8 6/17/8 7/1/8 7/15/8 7/29/8 8/12/8 8/26/8 9/9/8 9/23/8 1/7/8 1/21/8 11/4/8 11/18/8 12/2/8 12/16/8 12/3/8 1/13/9 1/27/9 2/1/9 2/24/9 3/1/9 3/24/9 4/7/9 4/21/9 Lawrence J. Lau, The Chinese University of Hong Kong 4 Day
Exchange Rates of Selected East Asian Economies (7/2/28=1) 16 15 14 13 Japanese Yen Chinese Yuan Hong Kong Dollar Indian Rupee Indonesia Rupiah Malaysia Ringgit Philippine Peso Singapore Dollar Korean Won New Taiwan Dollar Thai Baht Exchange Rate Index (7/2/28=1) of Selected Countries/Regions 12 11 1 9 8 4/15/9 4/22/9 Lawrence J. Lau, The Chinese University of Hong Kong 5 7/2/8 7/9/8 7/16/8 7/23/8 7/3/8 8/6/8 8/13/8 8/2/8 8/27/8 9/3/8 9/1/8 9/17/8 9/24/8 1/1/8 1/8/8 1/15/8 1/22/8 1/29/8 11/5/8 11/12/8 11/19/8 11/26/8 12/3/8 12/1/8 12/17/8 12/24/8 12/31/8 1/7/9 1/14/9 1/21/9 1/28/9 2/4/9 2/11/9 2/18/9 2/25/9 3/4/9 3/11/9 3/18/9 3/25/9 4/1/9 4/8/9 Day
Stock Market Indexes of Selected East Asian Economies (1/2/27=1) 3 Stock Market Index (1/2/27=1) of Selected Countries/Economies China Hong Kong 25 Indonesia Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Taiwan 2 Thailand Japan India 15 1 5 Lawrence J. Lau, The Chinese University of Hong Kong 6 1/2/7 1/16/7 1/3/7 2/13/7 2/27/7 3/13/7 3/27/7 4/1/7 4/24/7 5/8/7 5/22/7 6/5/7 6/19/7 7/3/7 7/17/7 7/31/7 8/14/7 8/28/7 9/11/7 9/25/7 1/9/7 1/23/7 11/6/7 11/2/7 12/4/7 12/18/7 1/1/8 1/15/8 1/29/8 2/12/8 2/26/8 3/11/8 3/25/8 4/8/8 4/22/8 5/6/8 5/2/8 6/3/8 6/17/8 7/1/8 7/15/8 7/29/8 8/12/8 8/26/8 9/9/8 9/23/8 1/7/8 1/21/8 11/4/8 11/18/8 12/2/8 12/16/8 12/3/8 1/13/9 1/27/9 2/1/9 2/24/9 3/1/9 3/24/9 4/7/9 4/21/9 Day
Stock Market Indexes of Selected East Asian Economies (7/2/28=1) 13 Stock Market Index (7/2/28=1) of Selected Countries/Economies 12 11 1 China Hong Kong Indonesia Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Taiwan Thailand Japan India 9 8 7 6 5 4 Lawrence J. Lau, The Chinese University of Hong Kong 7 7/2/8 7/9/8 7/16/8 7/23/8 7/3/8 8/6/8 8/13/8 8/2/8 8/27/8 9/3/8 9/1/8 9/17/8 9/24/8 1/1/8 1/8/8 1/15/8 1/22/8 1/29/8 11/5/8 11/12/8 11/19/8 11/26/8 12/3/8 12/1/8 12/17/8 12/24/8 12/31/8 1/7/9 1/14/9 1/21/9 1/28/9 2/4/9 2/11/9 2/18/9 2/25/9 3/4/9 3/11/9 3/18/9 3/25/9 4/1/9 4/8/9 4/15/9 4/22/9 Day
Quarterly Rates of Growth of Exports of Goods: Selected East Asian Economies 5 Figure 3.2: Year-over-Year Quarterly Rates of Growth of Exports of Goods in US$ (Percent) 4 3 2 1-1 Annualized Percent per annum Q1 1997 Q2 1997 Q3 1997 Q4 1997 Q1 1998 Q2 1998 Q3 1998 Q4 1998 Q1 1999 Q2 1999 Q3 1999 Q4 1999 Q1 2 Q2 2 Q3 2 Q4 2 Q1 21 Q2 21 Q3 21 Q4 21 Q1 22 Q2 22 Q3 22 Q4 22 Q1 23 Q2 23 Q3 23 Q4 23 Q1 24 Q2 24 Q3 24 Q4 24 Q1 25 Q2 25 Q3 25 Q4 25 Q1 26 Q2 26 Q3 26 Q4 26 Q1 27 Q2 27 Q3 27 Q4 27 Q1 28 Q2 28 Q3 28 Q4 28 Q1 29-2 -3-4 Lawrence J. Lau, The Chinese University of Hong Kong 8 Quarter China,P.R.:Hong Kong India Indonesia Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand China,P.R.: Mainland Japan Taiwan Prov.of China
Quarterly Rates of Growth of Imports of Goods: Selected East Asian Economies 8 Figure 3.3: Year-over-Year Quarterly Rates of Growth of Imports of Goods in US$ (Percent) 6 4 2 Annualized Percent per annum Q1 1997 Q2 1997 Q3 1997 Q4 1997 Q1 1998 Q2 1998 Q3 1998 Q4 1998 Q1 1999 Q2 1999 Q3 1999 Q4 1999 Q1 2 Q2 2 Q3 2 Q4 2 Q1 21 Q2 21 Q3 21 Q4 21 Q1 22 Q2 22 Q3 22 Q4 22 Q1 23 Q2 23 Q3 23 Q4 23 Q1 24 Q2 24 Q3 24 Q4 24 Q1 25 Q2 25 Q3 25 Q4 25 Q1 26 Q2 26 Q3 26 Q4 26 Q1 27 Q2 27 Q3 27 Q4 27 Q1 28 Q2 28 Q3 28 Q4 28 Q1 29-2 -4-6 Lawrence J. Lau, The Chinese University of Hong Kong 9 Quarter China,P.R.:Hong Kong India Indonesia Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand China,P.R.: Mainland Japan Taiwan Prov.of China
Quarterly Rates of Growth of Real GDP, Y-o-Y: Selected East Asian Economies 2 Figure 3.1: Quarterly Rates of Growth of Real GDP, Year-over-Year, Selected East Asian Economies 15 1 5-5 Annualized Rates in Percent Q1 1994 Q2 1994 Q3 1994 Q4 1994 Q1 1995 Q2 1995 Q3 1995 Q4 1995 Q1 1996 Q2 1996 Q3 1996 Q4 1996 Q1 1997 Q2 1997 Q3 1997 Q4 1997 Q1 1998 Q2 1998 Q3 1998 Q4 1998 Q1 1999 Q2 1999 Q3 1999 Q4 1999 Q1 2 Q2 2 Q3 2 Q4 2 Q1 21 Q2 21 Q3 21 Q4 21 Q1 22 Q2 22 Q3 22 Q4 22 Q1 23 Q2 23 Q3 23 Q4 23 Q1 24 Q2 24 Q3 24 Q4 24 Q1 25 Q2 25 Q3 25 Q4 25 Q1 26 Q2 26 Q3 26 Q4 26 Q1 27 Q2 27 Q3 27 Q4 27 Q1 28 Q2 28 Q3 28 Q4 28 Q1 29-1 -15 China,P.R.:Hong Kong India Indonesia Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand China,P.R.: Mainland Japan Taiwan Prov.of China Lawrence J. Lau, The Chinese University of Hong Kong 1-2 Quarter
East Asian Share of World GDP, 196-present 26 East Asian Share of World GDP, 196-present 24 22 2 18 16 14 12 1 Lawrence J. Lau, The Chinese University of Hong Kong 11 Year 196 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 197 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 198 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 199 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 Percent
Savings Rates of Selected Asian Economies (1952-28) 6 5 China, Mainland Hong Kong India Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Taiwan Thailand Savings Rates of Selected Asian Economies 4 3 2 1 Lawrence J. Lau, The Chinese University of Hong Kong 12 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 196 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 197 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 198 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 199 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 Year Percent
Savings Rates of Selected Asian Economies (198-28) 6 55 5 45 China, Mainland India Japan Malaysia Singapore Thailand Savings Rates of Selected Asian Economies Hong Kong Indonesia Korea Philippines Taiwan Percent 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 198 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 Lawrence J. Lau, The Chinese University of Hong Kong 13 1987 1988 1989 199 1991 1992 1993 1994 Year 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
The Rising Ratio of East Asian Trade in Total World Trade, 196-present 3 East Asian Share of Total World Trade, 196-present 25 2 15 1 5 196 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 197 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 198 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 199 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 Percent Share of World Exports Share of World Imports Share of Total World Trade Lawrence J. Lau, The Chinese University of Hong Kong 14 Year
The Share of East Asian Exports Destined for East Asia 53 The Share of East Asian Exports Destined for East Asia 51 49 47 45 43 41 39 37 35 Jan-98 Apr-98 Jul-98 Oct-98 Jan-99 Apr-99 Jul-99 Oct-99 Jan- Apr- Jul- Oct- Jan-1 Apr-1 Jul-1 Oct-1 Jan-2 Apr-2 Jul-2 Oct-2 Jan-3 Apr-3 Jul-3 Oct-3 Jan-4 Apr-4 Jul-4 Oct-4 Jan-5 Apr-5 Jul-5 Oct-5 Jan-6 Apr-6 Jul-6 Oct-6 Jan-7 Apr-7 Jul-7 Oct-7 Jan-8 Apr-8 Jul-8 Oct-8 Lawrence J. Lau, The Chinese University of Hong Kong 15 Month %
The Share of East Asian Imports Originated from East Asia The Share of East Asian Imports Originated from East Asia 59 57 55 53 51 49 47 45 Lawrence J. Lau, The Chinese University of Hong Kong 16 Jan-98 Apr-98 Jul-98 Oct-98 Jan-99 Apr-99 Jul-99 Oct-99 Jan- Apr- Jul- Oct- Jan-1 Apr-1 Jul-1 Oct-1 Jan-2 Apr-2 Jul-2 Oct-2 Jan-3 Apr-3 Jul-3 Oct-3 Jan-4 Apr-4 Jul-4 Oct-4 Jan-5 Apr-5 Jul-5 Oct-5 Jan-6 Apr-6 Jul-6 Oct-6 Jan-7 Apr-7 Jul-7 Oct-7 Jan-8 Apr-8 Jul-8 Oct-8 Month %
Total Foreign Exchange Reserves minus Gold, Selected Countries and Regions 2, Total Foreign Exchange Reserves minus Gold 1,8 1,6 1,4 China, Mainland Japan Russia Africa Taiwan Prov. Of China 1,2 1, 8 6 4 2 Lawrence J. Lau, The Chinese University of Hong Kong 17 M1 1985 M7 1985 M1 1986 M7 1986 M1 1987 M7 1987 M1 1988 M7 1988 M1 1989 M7 1989 M1 199 M7 199 M1 1991 M7 1991 M1 1992 M7 1992 M1 1993 M7 1993 M1 1994 M7 1994 M1 1995 M7 1995 M1 1996 M7 1996 M1 1997 M7 1997 M1 1998 M7 1998 M1 1999 M7 1999 M1 2 M7 2 M1 21 M7 21 M1 22 M7 22 M1 23 M7 23 M1 24 M7 24 M1 25 M7 25 M1 26 M7 26 M1 27 M7 27 M1 28 M7 28 M1 29 Year USD billions
Major Foreign Central Banks Holdings of U.S. Treasury Securities 8 Major Foreign Holders of U.S. Treasury Securities 7 6 China, Mainland Japan Russia United Kingdom Brazil 5 4 3 2 1 Mar-9 Lawrence J. Lau, The Chinese University of Hong Kong 18 Mar- Jun- Sep- Dec- Mar-1 Jun-1 Sep-1 Dec-1 Mar-2 Jun-2 Sep-2 Dec-2 Mar-3 Jun-3 Sep-3 Dec-3 Mar-4 Jun-4 Sep-4 Dec-4 Mar-5 Jun-5 Sep-5 Dec-5 Mar-6 Jun-6 Sep-6 Dec-6 Mar-7 Jun-7 Sep-7 Dec-7 Mar-8 Jun-8 Sep-8 Dec-8 Month USD billions
Real Chinese GDP in US$ Since 1952 (28 Prices) Chinese Real GDP, in 28 prices 5, 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 196 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 197 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 198 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 199 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 Billions US$ Lawrence J. Lau, The Chinese University of Hong Kong 19 Year
Real Chinese GDP per Capita in US$ Since 1952 (28 Prices) 3,5 Chinese Real GDP per Capita, in 28 prices 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 Lawrence J. Lau, The Chinese University of Hong Kong 2 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 196 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 197 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 198 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 199 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 US$ Year
China s Share of World GDP, 196-present China's GDP as a Percentage of World GDP 6.5 6. 5.5 5. 4.5 4. 3.5 3. 2.5 2. 1.5 1..5. Lawrence J. Lau, The Chinese University of Hong Kong 21 196 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 197 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 198 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 199 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 Percent Year
The Distribution of Chinese GDP by Sector The Distribution of GDP by Sector 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 196 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 197 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 198 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 199 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 Year Lawrence J. Lau, The Chinese University of Hong Kong 22 Primary Sector Secondary Sector Tertiary Sector
The Distribution of Chinese Employment by Sector The Distribution of Employment by Sector 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % 27 1952 1957 1962 1965 197 1975 1978 1979 198 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 199 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 Lawrence J. Lau, The Chinese Year University of Hong Kong 23 Primary Sector Secondary Sector Tertiary Sector
The Ratio of Chinese Trade in Total World Trade, 195-present The Ratio of Chinese Trade to World Trade 1 9 8 The ratio of Chinese Exports to World Exports The ratio of Chinese Imports to World Imports The ratio of Chinese Total Trade to World Total Trade 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Lawrence J. Lau, The Chinese University of Hong Kong 24 195 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 196 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 197 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 198 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 199 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 Month Percent
The Ratio of Chinese Trade in Total East Asian Trade, 1952-present 35 The Ratio of Chinese Trade to East Asian Trade The Ratio of Chinese Exports to East Asian Exports 3 The Ratio of Chinese Imports to East Asian Imports The Ratio of Chinese Total Trade to East Asian Total Trade 25 2 15 1 5 Lawrence J. Lau, The Chinese University of Hong Kong 25 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 196 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 197 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 198 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 199 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 Month Percent
Chinese Monthly Exports, Imports and Trade Balance, US$ 15 The Level of Exports, Imports and Trade Balance of Goods at the End of the Month, in U.S. Dollars 14 13 12 11 1 9 8 7 6 Exports, fob Imports, cif Trade Balance 5 4 3 2 1-1 Lawrence J. Lau, The Chinese University of Hong Kong 26 Jan-92 Apr-92 Jul-92 Oct-92 Jan-93 Apr-93 Jul-93 Oct-93 Jan-94 Apr-94 Jul-94 Oct-94 Jan-95 Apr-95 Jul-95 Oct-95 Jan-96 Apr-96 Jul-96 Oct-96 Jan-97 Apr-97 Jul-97 Oct-97 Jan-98 Apr-98 Jul-98 Oct-98 Jan-99 Apr-99 Jul-99 Oct-99 Jan- Apr- Jul- Oct- Jan-1 Apr-1 Jul-1 Oct-1 Jan-2 Apr-2 Jul-2 Oct-2 Jan-3 Apr-3 Jul-3 Oct-3 Jan-4 Apr-4 Jul-4 Oct-4 Jan-5 Apr-5 Jul-5 Oct-5 Jan-6 Apr-6 Jul-6 Oct-6 Jan-7 Apr-7 Jul-7 Oct-7 Jan-8 Apr-8 Jul-8 Oct-8 Jan-9 USD billions Month
Case-Shiller U.S. Home Price Index and the Chinese Trade Surplus Case-Shiller Home Price Index (2Q1=1) and Chinese Trade Surplus 5 25 45 Case-Shiller Home Price Index 4 2 Chinese Trade Surplus 35 3 15 25 2 15 1 5 Jan- Apr- Jul- Oct- Jan-1 Apr-1 Jul-1 Oct-1 Jan-2 Apr-2 Jul-2 Oct-2 Jan-3 Apr-3 Jul-3 Oct-3 Jan-4 Apr-4 Jul-4 Oct-4 Jan-5 Apr-5 Jul-5 Oct-5 Jan-6 Apr-6 Jul-6 Oct-6 Jan-7 Apr-7 Jul-7 Oct-7 Jan-8 Apr-8 Jul-8 Oct-8 Jan-9 USD billions -5 Lawrence J. Lau, The Chinese University of Hong Kong 27 Month 2Q1=1 1 5-5 -1
Growth in U.S. Mortgage Originations: from John Kiff and Paul Mills (27) Lawrence J. Lau, The Chinese University of Hong Kong 28
Sub-Prime and Alt-A Mortgage Loans as a Percent of Total Mortgage Loans Sub-Prime and Alt-A Mortgage Loans as a Percent of Total Mortgage Loans 35 3 Sub-Prime Alt-A 25 2 Percent 15 1 5 Lawrence J. Lau, The Chinese University of Hong Kong 29 23 24 25 Year 26 27
Chinese Trade Surplus and Change in Its Foreign Exchange Reserves, US$ billions 8 Chinese Trade Surplus and Change in Its Foreign Exchange Reserves 7 Trade Surplus 6 Changes in Foreign Exchange Reserves 5 4 3 2 1 Jan-92 Jul-92 Jan-93 Jul-93 Jan-94 Jul-94 Jan-95 Jul-95 Jan-96 Jul-96 Jan-97 Jul-97 Jan-98 Jul-98 Jan-99 Jul-99 Jan- Jul- Jan-1 Jul-1 Jan-2 Jul-2 Jan-3 Jul-3 Jan-4 Jul-4 Jan-5 Jul-5 Jan-6 Jul-6 Jan-7 Jul-7 Jan-8 Jul-8 Jan-9-1 -2-3 -4 Lawrence J. Lau, The Chinese University of Hong Kong 3 Month USD billions
Chinese Trade Surplus and Change in Its Foreign Exchange Reserves, US$ billions 8 Chinese Trade Surplus and Change in Its Foreign Exchange Reserves, US$ billions 7 6 5 Trade Surplus Changes in Foreign Exchange Reserves 4 3 2 1 Jan-9 Jan- Apr- Jul- Oct- Jan-1 Apr-1 Jul-1 Oct-1 Jan-2 Apr-2 Jul-2 Oct-2 Jan-3 Apr-3 Jul-3 Oct-3 Jan-4 Apr-4 Jul-4 Oct-4 Jan-5 Apr-5 Jul-5 Oct-5 Jan-6 Apr-6 Jul-6 Oct-6 Jan-7 Apr-7 Jul-7 Oct-7 Jan-8 Apr-8 Jul-8 Oct-8-1 -2-3 -4 Lawrence J. Lau, The Chinese University of Hong Kong 31 Month USD billions
The Nominal and Real World Prices of Oil (28 prices) 13 Nominal and Real Price of Oil 12 Nominal Price of Oil 11 1 Real Price of Oil, in 28M1 price 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Lawrence J. Lau, The Chinese University of Hong Kong 32 Jan-74 Jul-74 Jan-75 Jul-75 Jan-76 Jul-76 Jan-77 Jul-77 Jan-78 Jul-78 Jan-79 Jul-79 Jan-8 Jul-8 Jan-81 Jul-81 Jan-82 Jul-82 Jan-83 Jul-83 Jan-84 Jul-84 Jan-85 Jul-85 Jan-86 Jul-86 Jan-87 Jul-87 Jan-88 Jul-88 Jan-89 Jul-89 Jan-9 Jul-9 Jan-91 Jul-91 Jan-92 Jul-92 Jan-93 Jul-93 Jan-94 Jul-94 Jan-95 Jul-95 Jan-96 Jul-96 Jan-97 Jul-97 Jan-98 Jul-98 Jan-99 Jul-99 Jan- Jul- Jan-1 Jul-1 Jan-2 Jul-2 Jan-3 Jul-3 Jan-4 Jul-4 Jan-5 Jul-5 Jan-6 Jul-6 Jan-7 Jul-7 Jan-8 Jul-8 Jan-9 U.S. Dollars per Barrel Month
Quarterly Rates of Growth of Chinese Real GDP, Y-o-Y 25% Quarterly Rates of Growth of Real GDP (YoY) 2% GDPQ1 GDPQ2 GDPQ3 GDPQ4 15% 1% 5% % 1983q1 1983q3 1984q1 1984q3 1985q1 1985q3 1986q1 1986q3 1987q1 1987q3 1988q1 1988q3 1989q1 1989q3 199q1 199q3 1991q1 1991q3 1992q1 1992q3 1993q1 1993q3 1994q1 1994q3 1995q1 1995q3 1996q1 1996q3 1997q1 1997q3 1998q1 1998q3 1999q1 1999q3 2q1 2q3 21q1 21q3 22q1 22q3 23q1 23q3 24q1 24q3 25q1 25q3 26q1 26q3 27q1 27q3 28q1 28q3 29q1-5% Lawrence J. Lau, The Chinese University of Hong Kong 33 Quarter Percent per annum
Monthly Rates of Growth of Chinese Fixed Assets Investment, Y-o-Y 6 Rates of Growth of Fixed Investment since 2, Year-over-Year 5 4 3 2 1 Lawrence J. Lau, The Chinese University of Hong Kong 34 Jan- Apr- Jul- Oct- Jan-1 Apr-1 Jul-1 Oct-1 Jan-2 Apr-2 Jul-2 Oct-2 Jan-3 Apr-3 Jul-3 Oct-3 Jan-4 Apr-4 Jul-4 Oct-4 Jan-5 Apr-5 Jul-5 Oct-5 Jan-6 Apr-6 Jul-6 Oct-6 Jan-7 Apr-7 Jul-7 Oct-7 Jan-8 Apr-8 Jul-8 Oct-8 Jan-9 Apr-9 Month Percent
Monthly Rates of Growth of Chinese Real Retail Sales, Y-o-Y 25 Rates of Growth of Real Retail Sales since 2, Year-over-Year 2 15 1 5 Apr-9 Lawrence J. Lau, The Chinese University of Hong Kong 35 Jan- Apr- Jul- Oct- Jan-1 Apr-1 Jul-1 Oct-1 Jan-2 Apr-2 Jul-2 Oct-2 Jan-3 Apr-3 Jul-3 Oct-3 Jan-4 Apr-4 Jul-4 Oct-4 Jan-5 Apr-5 Jul-5 Oct-5 Jan-6 Apr-6 Jul-6 Oct-6 Jan-7 Apr-7 Jul-7 Oct-7 Jan-8 Apr-8 Jul-8 Oct-8 Jan-9 Percent Month
Quarterly Rates of Growth of Selected Chinese Provincial GDPs, Year-over-Year Quarterly Rates of Growth of Provincial GDP, Year-over-Year 18 13 Percent 8 3-2 The Weighted Average Rates of Growth The National Real Rates of Growth Tianjin Inner Mongolia Shanghai Zhejiang Guangdong Guizhou Lawrence J. Lau, The Chinese University of Hong Kong 36 28Q1 28Q2 28Q3 28Q4 29Q1 Quarter
Monthly Rates of Change of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), Y-o-Y 5 Monthly Rates of Change of Consumer Price Index and Its Components Since 1994, Y-o-Y CPI 4 CPI: Food CPI: Clothing 3 CPI: Transport & Telecome 2 1 Jan-94 Apr-94 Jul-94 Oct-94 Jan-95 Apr-95 Jul-95 Oct-95 Jan-96 Apr-96 Jul-96 Oct-96 Jan-97 Apr-97 Jul-97 Oct-97 Jan-98 Apr-98 Jul-98 Oct-98 Jan-99 Apr-99 Jul-99 Oct-99 Jan- Apr- Jul- Oct- Jan-1 Apr-1 Jul-1 Oct-1 Jan-2 Apr-2 Jul-2 Oct-2 Jan-3 Apr-3 Jul-3 Oct-3 Jan-4 Apr-4 Jul-4 Oct-4 Jan-5 Apr-5 Jul-5 Oct-5 Jan-6 Apr-6 Jul-6 Oct-6 Jan-7 Apr-7 Jul-7 Oct-7 Jan-8 Apr-8 Jul-8 Oct-8 Jan-9 Percent per annum Lawrence J. Lau, The Chinese University of Hong Kong 37-1
Chinese Foreign Exchange Reserves and the Yuan/US$ Exchange Rate The Level of Foreign Exchange Reserves and Exchange Rate (Yuan per US Dollar) at the End of the Month 8.4 8.3 8.2 2, 1,8 8.1 8. 7.9 7.8 7.7 7.6 7.5 7.4 7.3 1,6 1,4 Foreign Reserves 1,2 Foreign Exchange Rate 1, 8 6 4 2 Lawrence J. Lau, The Chinese University of Hong Kong 38 Jan-99 Apr-99 Jul-99 Oct-99 Jan- Apr- Jul- Oct- Jan-1 Apr-1 Jul-1 Oct-1 Jan-2 Apr-2 Jul-2 Oct-2 Jan-3 Apr-3 Jul-3 Oct-3 Jan-4 Apr-4 Jul-4 Oct-4 Jan-5 Apr-5 Jul-5 Oct-5 Jan-6 Apr-6 Jul-6 Oct-6 Jan-7 Apr-7 Jul-7 Oct-7 Jan-8 Apr-8 Jul-8 Oct-8 Jan-9 Month Billions US$ 7.2 7.1 7. 6.9 6.8 6.7 6.6
The Nominal and Real Yuan/US$ Exchange Rates 9. The Nominal and Real Exchange Rates (1994 prices), Yuan/US$ 8.5 8. 7.5 7. 6.5 The Nominal Exchange Rate, Yuan/US$ The Real Exchange Rate, Yuan/US$ 6. 5.5 5. Jan-94 Apr-94 Jul-94 Oct-94 Jan-95 Apr-95 Jul-95 Oct-95 Jan-96 Apr-96 Jul-96 Oct-96 Jan-97 Apr-97 Jul-97 Oct-97 Jan-98 Apr-98 Jul-98 Oct-98 Jan-99 Apr-99 Jul-99 Oct-99 Jan- Apr- Jul- Oct- Jan-1 Apr-1 Jul-1 Oct-1 Jan-2 Apr-2 Jul-2 Oct-2 Jan-3 Apr-3 Jul-3 Oct-3 Jan-4 Apr-4 Jul-4 Oct-4 Jan-5 Apr-5 Jul-5 Oct-5 Jan-6 Apr-6 Jul-6 Oct-6 Jan-7 Apr-7 Jul-7 Oct-7 Jan-8 Apr-8 Jul-8 Oct-8 Jan-9 Yuan per U.S. Dollar Lawrence J. Lau, The Chinese University of Hong Kong 39