ICES advice on fishing opportunities in 2019 Herring stocks Eskild Kirkegaard, ICES ACOM Chair Pelagic AC, 5th July 2018
Rules for advice on fishing opportunities The advice rules applied by ICES in developing advice on fishing opportunities depends on: - management strategies agreed by relevant management bodies and - the information and knowledge available for the stock
EU Multi Annual Plans (MPAs) Advice on: status of stock and exploitation for all stocks advice and advice on fishing opportunities for stocks for which TACs are set. EU Multi Annual Plans (MPAs)
Type of advice depends on whether a stock is considered a target stock in the MAP or not, and whether F ranges are defined for the stock. a) Target stocks with F ranges and not shared with third party. Advice to be based on F range. b) Target stocks with no range defined or shared with third party. Advice to be based agreed management plan, ICES MSY or ICES PA. c) Non-target stocks with TAC and shared with third party. Advice to be based on agreed management plans, ICES MSY or ICES PA. d) Non-target stocks with TAC and not shared with third party. Advice to be based on ICES PA. e) Non-target stocks with no TAC. No advice on fishing opportunities. EU Multi Annual Plans (MPAs)
Basis for advice Stocks HERRING: North Sea Western Baltic, Skagerrak, Kattegat Celtic Sea Irish Sea 6a and 7b,c Basis for catch advice ICES MSY ICES MSY ICES MSY ICES MSY ICES MSY Comments Range not defined. Shared EU - Norway Range defined. Shared EU Norway Range not defined Range not defined Range not defined
ICES MSY approach more caution below B lim Maximize long term average yield Safeguard against low SSB Stay within precautionary boundaries F MSY B trigger F MSY B lim Category 1 and 2 stocks SSB at start of advisory year
Herring in Subdivisions 20 24 (Western Baltic Spring Spawning Herring)
Western Baltic spring spawning herring (subdivisions 20-24) ICES advises that when the MSY approach is applied, there should be zero catch in 2019. Figure 1 Herring in subdivisions 20 24, spring spawners. Commercial catches, recruitment, fishing mortality, and spawning SSB below B lim F above F MSY Recruitment has been low since the mid-2000s Recruitment 2016 & 2017 lowest in the time series Catch (2017) = 46 340 ( ~ 99.6% directed fishery; discarding negligible) Mixing with North Sea herring in Division 3a and eastern part of Subarea 4
Western Baltic spring spawning herring (subdivisions 20-24) Catch prediction - assumptions Variable Value Notes F ages 3 6 (2018) 0.30 Catch constraint SSB (2018) 104 169 Catch constraint R age 0 (2018) 1 368 458 Geometric mean 2012 2016 R age 0 (2019) 1 368 458 Geometric mean 2012 2016 Total catch (2018) 38 354 Agreed EU Norway catch options (EU Norway, 2016), including an assumed 46% transfer (22 276 t) of the C-fleet TAC to the North Sea (in tonnes). Utilization of the TAC in 2018 of 100% for the F-fleet, 54% for the C-fleet, 46% for the D-fleet, and a small catch of western Baltic spring-spawning herring in the A-fleet (based on the average of 2015-2017, see table 8 for definition of fleets). Ratios between the North Sea and western Baltic herring stocks in Division 3.a and Subarea 4 are based on the average proportions in the 2015 2017 catches.
Basis Total catch (2019) F 3-6 (2019) SSB* (2019) SSB* (2020) % SSB change ** % advice change *** ICES advice basis MSY approach: zero catch 0 0 97 975 117 962 20% -100% Other scenarios MAP (2018)^: F = F MSY SSB 2018 /MSY B trigger 26 849 0.22 95 790 93 555-2.3% -22% MAP (2018)^: F = F MSY lower (SSB 2018 /MSY B trigger ) 19 289 0.15 96 445 100 319 4.0% -44% MAP (2018)^: F = F MSY upper (SSB 2018 /MSY B trigger ) 32 149 0.26 95 309 88 869-6.8% -7.1% F MSY 37 118 0.31 94 840 84 275-11.1% 7.2% F = F pa 41 178 0.35 94 418 80 704-14.5% 19.0% F = F lim 50 711 0.45 93 433 72 478-22% 46% SSB (2020) = B lim ^^ 0 0 97 975 117 962 20% -100% SSB (2020) = B pa^^ 0 0 97 975 117 962 20% -100% SSB (2020) = MSY B trigger^^ 0 0 97 975 117 962 20% -100% F = F 2018 35 869 0.30 94 959 85 373-10.1% 3.6% MAP (2016)^^^: F = F MSY SSB y-1 / MSY MAP B trigger 36 391 0.30 94 910 85 158-10.3% 5.1% MAP (2016)^^^: F = F MSY.lower SSB y-1 / MSY MAP B trigger 27 188 0.22 95 760 93 262-2.6% -21% MAP (2016)^^^: F = F MSY.upper SSB y-1 / MSY MAP B trigger 44906 0.39 94 067 77 788-17.3% 30% F = 0 {SSB 2021 = 147 941} ^^^^ 0 0 97 975 117 962 20% -100% F = 0.05 {SSB 2021 = 134 648} ^^^^ 6 540 0.05 97 462 111 782 14.7% -81% F = 0.1 {SSB 2021 = 122 673} ^^^^ 12 776 0.1 96 951 105 941 9.3% -63% F = 0.15 {SSB 2021 = 111 881} ^^^^ 18 724 0.15 96 443 100 422 4.1% -46%
This stock was benchmarked in 2018. The new assessment shows a better retrospective pattern. The historic perception of SSB and recruitment have been revised downwards in this process. 2017 assessment 2018 assessment
Western Baltic spring spawning herring (subdivisions 20-24) Revised Reference Points Reference point Old Value New Value MSY B trigger 110 000 150 000 F MSY 0.32 0.31 B lim 90 000 120 000 B pa 110 000 150 000 F lim 0.52 0.45 F pa 0.45 0.35
North Sea Herring (3a, 4 and 7d) Autumn spawners
North Sea Herring (3a, 4 and 7d) Catches by statistical rectangle in 2017
North Sea Herring (3a, 4 and 7d) ICES advises that when the MSY approach is applied, catches in 2019 should be no more than 311 572 tonnes, which includes 291 040 tonnes for the A-fleet. Fishing mortality below F MSY since 1996. Recruitment has been relatively low since 2002, with the two lowest year classes falling within the recent four of the last 30 years. Spawning biomass above MSY B trigger since 1998. Catch in 2017 = 498 662 t. (99% directed fishery, 1% bycatch
North Sea Herring (3a, 4 and 7d) North Sea herring fisheries Area where NSAS are caught Fleet Fishery NSAS 2017 catches (tonnes) North Sea fisheries (Subarea 4, Division 7.d) A Directed herring fisheries 484085 B Bycatches of herring 6976 Division 3.a C Directed herring fisheries 7404 D Bycatches of herring 196
North Sea Herring (3a, 4 and 7d) Catch forecast The 2017 assessment predicted a reduction in stock size in 2018 and 2019 due to the weak 2014 year class. Confirmed by the 2018 assessment. The intermediate year (2018) assumptions: Variable Value Notes F ages (wr) 2 6 (2018) 0.38 Catch constraint. SSB (2018) 1403772 Calculated based on catch constraint (in tonnes). R age (wr) 0 (2018) 35689956 Estimated by assessment model (in thousands). R age (wr) 0 (2019) 32695655 Weighted mean over 2008 2017 (in thousands). Total catch (2018) 639102 Agreed catch options, including a 46% transfer (22 276 t) of C-fleet TAC to the A-fleet in the North Sea (in tonnes). F by fleet and total Catches by fleet F ages F ages F ages F ages SSB F ages F ages Catches Catches CatchesCfleefleet CatchesD- (wr) 2 6 (wr) 0 1 (wr) 0 1 (wr) 0 1 2018 (wr) 2 6 (wr) 0 1 A-fleet B-fleet A-fleet B-fleet C-fleet D-fleet 0.38 0.025 0.005 0.005 0.38 0.036 619750 9669 7845 1838 1403772
North Sea Herring (3a, 4 and 7d) Catch forecast A management strategy has not been agreed for 2019, and the advice is based on the ICES MSY approach. F for ages 0 1 is maintained to the 0.05 target. The C-fleet and D-fleet catches to zero, consistent with the zero catch advised for WBSS. ICES currently has no method for fleet-based MSY advice and other catch distribution scenarios could be provided on request from clients.
2 6 0 1 0 1 0 1 2 6 0 1 A-fleet **** %TAC change Basis A-fleet F ages (wr) B-fleet F ages (wr) North Sea Herring (3a, 4 and 7d) F values by fleet and total C-fleet F ages (wr) D-fleet F ages (wr) F ages (wr) F ages (wr) Catches by fleet Biomass* % A-fleet B-fleet C-fleet # D-fleet # Total stock catch SSB 2019 %SSB SSB 2020 ** change *** MSY approach^^ 0.22 0.049 0 0 0.216 0.05 291040 20532 0 0 311572 1162495 1156221-17.2-51.5-39.8 Other scenarios EU Norway Management strategy 0.195 0.049 0 0 0.195 0.050 266494 20532 0 0 287026 1178944 1185543-16 -55.6-44.6 F = F MSY 0.259 0.049 0 0 0.260 0.050 341513 20532 0 0 362045 1128363 1097826-19.6-43.1-30.1 F = 0 0 0 0 0 0 0. 0 0 0 0 0 1351984 1556967-3.7-100.0-100 No change in A- fleet TAC A-fleet TAC reduction of 15% A-fleet TAC increase of 15% 0.53 0.049 0 0 0.531 0.052 600588 20532 0 0 621120 946334 835271-32.6 0 19.9 0.43 0.049 0 0 0.427 0.051 510500 20532 0 0 531032 1010956 919895-28.0-15 2.5 0.65 0.049 0 0 0.649 0.052 690676 20532 0 0 711208 880268 757094-37.3 15 37.3 F = F 2018 0.38 0.049 0 0 0.381 0.051 467438 20532 0 0 487971 1041340 962774-25.8-22.2-5.8 F pa 0.3 0.049 0 0 0.300 0.051 385008 20532 0 0 405540 1098610 1049500-21.7-35.9-21.7 F lim 0.34 0.049 0 0 0.340 0.051 426477 20532 0 0 447010 1069944 1005090-23.8-29.0-13.7 SSB 2019 = B pa 0.61 0.049 0 0 0.613 0.052 663976 20532 0 0 684508 900000 779623-35.9 10.6 32.2 SSB 2019 = B lim 0.81 0.049 0 0 0.810 0.053 797571 20532 0 0 818104 800000 671967-43 32.8 58 * For autumn-spawning stocks, the SSB is determined at spawning time and is influenced by fisheries between 1 January and spawning. ** Assuming same catch option in 2020 as in 2019. *** SSB (2019) relative to SSB (2018). **** A-fleet catches (2019) relative to TAC 2018 for the A-fleet (600 588 tonnes). ^ Advice value 2019 relative to advice value 2018, using catches for all fleets. ^^ Following the MSY advise rule FMSY SSB2019/MSY Btrigger (ICES, 2016). ^^^ MSY Btrigger cannot be reached in 2019. # The catch for C and D fleets are set to zero because of the zero catch advice given for 2019 for the Western Baltic spring-spawning herring stock. Advice change ^
North Sea Herring (3a, 4 and 7d) 2018 assessment 2017 assessment Benchmarked in 2018. Natural mortality updated - multispecies assessment model. Assessment methodology updated. More precise stock estimates and reduced assessment bias. New natural mortality resulted in a rescaling of SSB and F. The reference points were updated accordingly.
Natural mortality North Sea Herring (3a, 4 and 7d)
North Sea Herring (3a, 4 and 7d) Reference points Framework Reference point 2018 assessment 2017 assessment MSY B trigger 1 400 000 1 500 000 t MSY approach F MSY 0.26 0.33 B lim 800 000 800 000 t Precautionary approach B pa 900 000 1 000 000 t F lim 0.34 0.39 F pa 0.30 0.34
North Sea Herring (3a, 4 and 7d) EU Norway request for advice on management strategy For North Sea autumn-spawning herring ICES is asked to: 1. Tabulate the long-term yield, long term SSB, inter annual TAC variability and risk of SSB falling below Blim for the range of combinations of Btrigger and Ftarget values evaluated. 2. Estimate the combination of Ftarget and Btrigger that maximises yield given the rules set out in five sets defined in the table attached. The five sets are A, B, A+C, A+D and B+D. 3. Evaluate the performance of the four sets of rules with corresponding pairs of Ftarget and Btrigger and the additional fishing pressure scenarios of 0.9*Ftarget, Ftarget, 1.1*Ftarget, FMSY lower and FMSY upper. (5 pairs, 5 sets = 25 scenarios).
Herring in 7.a South of 52 30 N and 7.gh,jk (Irish Sea, Celtic Sea and Southwest of Ireland)
Herring in 7.a South of 52 30 N and 7.gh,jk (Irish Sea, Celtic Sea and Southwest of Ireland) ICES advises that when the MSY approach is applied, catches in 2019 should be no more than 4 742 tonnes. SSB has been decreasing significantly since its peak in 2011, and is now below MSY B trigger at Blim. F has increased since 2008 and has been above F MSY since 2015. Recruitment has been below average since 2013. Catch in 2017 = 10 767 t. (100% pelagic trawl)
Herring in 7.a South of 52 30 N and 7.gh,jk (Irish Sea, Celtic Sea and Southwest of Ireland) Catch scenarios assume catch in 2018 = 10887 t Recruitment 2018/2019 = Based on stock-recruitment relationship SSB(2018) = 36 139t < MSY B trigger (54 000 t) F MSY = 0.26 Basis Total catch (2019) F 2 5 (2019) SSB (2019) * % SSB change ** SSB (2020) * % TAC change *** % Advice change ^ ICES advice basis MSY approach: F MSY SSB 2018 /MSY B trigger 4742 0.17 39558 9.5 41070 53 12.9 Other scenarios F MSY 7000 0.26 38395 6.2 39607 31 29 F = 0 0 0 41887 15.9 50670 100 100 F pa 7241 0.27 38269 5.9 39451 29 33 F lim 11264 0.45 36088 0.141 36864 11.2 107 SSB (2019) = B lim 14847 0.635 34020 5.9 34584 47 173 SSB (2019) = B pa ^^ SSB (2019) = MSY B trigger ^^ F = F 2018 11055 0.44 36205 0.183 36998 9.2 103
Inter-benchmarked in 2018. The survey estimates were revised, the range of age classes in the survey was reduced, and assumptions regarding selectivity at older ages were revised. These changes improved diagnostics and reduced retrospective patterns, although there was little change in the perception of current stock status
1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 Mean weight (kg) Celtic Sea herring 0,35 0,3 0,25 0,2 0,15 0,1 0,05 Mean Weights in the Catch 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 Year
Herring in Division 7.a North of 52º 30 (Irish Sea)
Herring in Division 7.a North of 52º 30 (Irish Sea) ICES advises that when the MSY approach is applied, catches in 2019 should be no more than 6896 tonnes. SSB has been above MSY B trigger since 2007. F has decreased since 2003 and has been below F MSY since 2007. There has been stronger recruitment since 2006. Recruitment in 2017 is low. Catch in 2017 = 3 896 t. (100% pelagic trawl)
Herring in Division 7.a North of 52º 30 (Irish Sea) Assume that catch for 2018 = TAC constraint = 7 016 t Recruitment 2017/2018 = 2006-2015 geometric mean. SSB(2018) =22 404 t > MSY B trigger (11 831 t) F MSY = 0.266 Basis Total catch (2019) F total (2019) SSB * (2019) % SSB change ** SSB (2020) *^ % TAC change *** % Advice change ^^ ICES advice basis MSY approach: F MSY 6896 0.266 21760 2.9 22110 1.71 1.71 Other scenarios F = 0 0 0 26736 19.3 32181 100 100 F pa 7358 0.286 21428 4.4 21508 4.9 4.9 F lim 9791 0.397 19682 12.2 18485 40 40 SSB (2019) = B lim 25887 1.5 8500 62 12404 269 269 SSB (2019) = B pa 20935 1.05 11831 47 15317 198 198 SSB (2019) = MSY B trigger 20935 1.05 11831 47 15317 198 198
Herring in Division 7.a North of 52º 30 (Irish Sea) Benchmarked in 2017 New acoustic survey included in assessment. Revised perception -significant upwards revisions of the SSB and recruitment -downward revision of fishing mortality. 2018 assessment consistent with 2017.
Herring in Divisions 6.a and 7.b,c (West of Scotland, West of Ireland)
Herring in Divisions 6.a and 7.b,c (West of Scotland, West of Ireland) ICES advises that when the ICES MSY approach is applied, there should be zero catch in 2019. ICES recommends that a stock recovery plan is implemented for these combined stocks. Represents two stocks (divisions 6.a(N) and 6.a(S), and divisions 7.b c) assessed as one. SSB has been declining since 2004 and is estimated to have been below B lim since 2013. F has been below F MSY since the late 1990s. Recruitment has been at unprecedented low levels since 2013. Catch in 2017 = 6 428 t.
Herring in Divisions 6.a and 7.b,c (West of Scotland, West of Ireland) Catch options ICES in 2016 provided advice on a scientific monitoring fishery = 4840 t Assume agreed scientific monitoring TAC of 5800t B lim = 250 000 t Basis Total catch (2019) F total (2019) SSB * (2019) SSB ** (2020) % SSB change *** % TAC change ^ ICES advice basis MSY approach: zero catch 0 0 89089 89394-2.7-100 Other scenarios 2018 Monitoring TAC 5800 0.073 85558 81473-6.5 0 Advice for scientific monitoring (ICES, 2016 ) 4840 0.061 86147 82120-5.9-16.6 Proposed rebuilding plan: lower of F 2019 = SSB 2018 /MSY B trigger *F MSY or 2879 0.036 87344 83441-4.6-50 F 2019 = F catch : 5800 tonnes F MSY 12262 0.16 81552 77133-10.9 111 F pa 13685 0.18 80660 76180-11.9 136 F lim 21748 0.3 75521 70798-17.5 275 SSB (2020) = B lim^ SSB (2020) = B pa = MSY B trigger^^^ F 2019 = F 2018 5100 0.064 85988 81945-6.0-12.1 % Advice change ^^
Herring in Divisions 6.a and 7.b,c (West of Scotland, West of Ireland) The 2017 and the 2018 assessment have resulted in a historical downward revision of the stock size. Uncertainties affecting the quality are a lack of information on recruitment and the abundance of fish of younger ages, sensitivity to assumptions of future recruitment and age-dependent catchabilities, and the model s apparent overestimation of the abundance of older fish in the stock relative to that observed in the Malin shelf acoustic survey and catches since 2013.
Herring in Divisions 6.a and 7.b,c (West of Scotland, West of Ireland) A rebuilding plan, which contains provisions for a monitoring TAC whilst the combined stocks remain below Blim, was evaluated by ICES in 2017, and found not to be precautionary. A key aim of the plan is to provide for sampling opportunities for continuation of the assessment input catch-at-age information and sample collection for stock discrimination research, whilst ensuring that the stock can be rebuilt. A revised version of the rebuilding plan was submitted to the European Commission in 2018 but has not been evaluated by ICES.
Heering - recruitment 3 2,5 2 1,5 1 0,5 0 Herring, relative recruitment Celtic Sea, Irish Sea, 6a, 7b,c, North Sea and Western Baltic 3 2,5 2 1,5 1 0,5 0 Herring, reletive recruitment Celtic Sea, 6a, 7b,c, North Sea and Western Baltic North Sea 6a 7b,c Celtic Sea Irish Sea Western Baltic North Sea 6a 7b,c Celtic Sea Western Baltic
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