EFSA Scientific Colloquium XV on Emerging Risks in Food, 12 Oct 2010, Parma Methods for the identification of emerging risks: an overview. Rafael Popper PREST - Manchester Institute of Innovation Research Rafael.Popper@manchester.ac.uk University of Manchester, UK 1
Outline On methods What for? Horizon Scanning Risk analysis (identification/assessment/management) Foresight Which framework? Which method(s)? Does the Geo-R&D Context influences selection? How many methods? How to contribute to the (post)indentification process? How to combine them? What methodology? On identification of emerging risks & (missed) opportunities Identification strategy Scanning strategy, Filtering strategy, Knowledge sources, etc. Identification methodology Scanning frameworks, Methods, etc. Post-identification strategy Interconnecting, Assessing, Managing, Responding, Communicating, etc. Questions? 2
On methods
On methods: What for? Horizon Scanning The systematic examination of potential threats, opportunities and likely future developments which are at the margins of current thinking and planning. Futures research (foresight) may explore novel and unexpected issues, as well as persistent problems or trends (Defra, 2002). Risk analysis a systematic and strategic process of identification, assessment and (sometimes) management of uncertain issues (e.g. hazards and developments), which may potentially develop into threats or (missed) opportunities, depending on their perceived probability of occurrence and type of impacts (Popper, 2010). NEW Foresight an open and collective process of purposeful, future-oriented exploration, involving deliberation between heterogeneous actors in science and technology arenas, with a view to formulating shared visions and strategies that take better account of future opportunities and threats (Keenan and Popper, 2007). 4
Why foresight? Foresight is increasingly becoming a key and systematic instrument for the development and implementation of research and science, technology and innovation (STI) policy But, what type of foresight? 5
SMART Foresight: Key phases S Scoping (Pre- Foresight) Transforming Mobilising (Renewal) (Recruitment) t) Realising Anticipating (Action) (Generation) 6
SMART Foresight: Key features Scoping Mobilising Anticipating Realising Transforming Aspirations Aim Objectives Resources Scale & Domain Methodology Etc. Engagement Recruiting experts Steering Group Champions Facilitators Users Etc. Possible Futures Generating visions Scenarios Roadmaps Trends/drivers Key technologies Etc. Commitment Recommendation s Strategies Decisions Actions Plans Etc. Intelligence Renewal Evaluation Learning Impact assessment Dissemination Etc. 7
On methods: Which framework? Classification of methods By their nature Qualitative Quantitative Semi-quantitative By their knowledge source Based on creativity and insight Based on interaction and participation Based on expertise and interdisciplinary Based on evidence and information By their potential contributions to The Horizon Scanning process The Risk Analysis process The Foresight process 8
On methods: Which method(s)? Qualitative Quantitative Semi-quantitative Methods providing meaning to events and perceptions. Such interpretations tend to be based on subjectivity or creativity often difficult to corroborate. 1. Backcasting 2. Brainstorming 3. Citizens panels 4. Conferences/workshops 5. Essays /Scenario writing 6. Expert panels 7. Genius forecasting 8. Interviews 9. Literature review 10. Morphological analysis 11. Relevance trees /logic charts 12. Role play / Acting 13. Scanning 14. Scenario /Scenario workshops 15. Science fictioning (SF) 16. Simulation gaming 17. Surveys 18. SWOT analysis 19. Weak signals /Wildcards Methods measuring variables and apply statistical analyses on quantitative data. 20. Benchmarking 21. Bibliometrics 22. Indicators / time series analysis 23. Modelling 24. Patent analysis 25. Trend extrapolation / impact analysis By their nature? Methods which apply mathematical principles to quantify subjectivity, rational judgements and viewpoints of experts and commentators (i.e. weighting opinions) 26. Cross-impact / structural analysis 27. Delphi 28. Key / Critical technologies 29. Multi-criteria analysis 30. Polling / Voting 31. Quantitative scenarios / SMIC 32. Roadmapping 33. Stakeholder analysis Source: R. Popper (2008) 9
On methods: Which method(s)? Popper (2008) Is the selection influenced by the intrinsic nature of methods? Yes, very high
On methods: Which method(s)? By their knowledge source? Creativity The only real valuable thing is intuition Imagination is more important than knowledge. Knowledge is limited. Imagination encircles the world (Albert Einstein, 1929) Expertise If an elderly but distinguished scientist says that something is possible, he is almost certainly right, but if he says that it is impossible, he is very probably wrong (Arthur Clarke,1962) Interaction the world is ruled by those who show up (Anonymus) Evidence There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics (Benjamin Disraeli, 1924.
On methods: Which method(s)? Is the selection influenced by the capabilities of th methods? Yes, highly Popper (2008) On average, foresight studies use from 5 to 6 methods
On methods: Mind the process! Potential contribution of qualitative methods Source: Popper (2008) Methods /Activities ii Pre-Foresight Recruitment Foresight Phases Generation Action Renewal Type of method 1 Backcasting 2 Brainstorming 3 Citizens Panels 4 Conferences/Workshops 5 Essays/Scenario Writing 6 Expert Panels 7 Genius Forecasting 8 Interviews 9 Literature Review (LR) 10 Morphological Analysis Qualitative 11 Relevance Trees/Logic Charts 12 Role play/acting 13 Scanning 14 Scenarios/Scenario i Workshops 15 Science Fictioning (SF) 16 Simulation Gaming 17 Surveys 18 SWOT Analysis 19 Weak Signals/Wild Cards Legend of symbols: little/no contribution [], some contribution [], significant contribution [], major contribution [] 13
On methods: Mind the process! Potential contribution of quantitative and semi-quantitative methods 20 Benchmarking Methods / Activities Pre-Foresight Recruitment Foresight Phases Generation Action Renewal Type of method 21 Bibliometrics 22 Indicators/Time Series Analysis (TSA) Quantitative 23 Modelling 24 Patent Analysis 25 Trend Extrapolation/Impact p Analysis 26 Cross-impact/Structural Analysis (SA) 27 Delphi 28 Key/Critical Technologies 29 Multi-criteria it i Analysis Semi- 30 Polling/Voting Quantitative 31 Quantitative Scenarios/SMIC 32 Roadmapping 33 Stakeholders Analysis/MACTOR Legend of symbols: little/no contribution [], some contribution [], significant contribution [], major contribution [] Note: the tables (above) provide an impressionistic view of the contribution that 33 methods might make to each phase of the foresight process. The potential contribution is represented with bullets. For example: Backcasting may have little/no contribution [] in the Pre-Foresight, Recruitment and Renewal Phases, whereas significant contribution [] in the Generation and Action Phases 14 Source: Popper (2008)
On methods: Combining methods Frequency of Popper (2008) combinations L (or blank)= below 19% M = 20-39% H = 40-59% VH = above 60% 15
On methods: Combining methods Frequency of Popper (2008) combinations L (or blank)= below 19% M = 20-39% H = 40-59% VH = above 60% Popper (2008) 16
On methods: Combining methods Frequency of Popper (2008) combinations L (or blank)= below 19% M = 20-39% H = 40-59% VH = above 60% Popper (2008) Popper (2008) 17
On methods: Geo-R&D context 18 quantitative semi-quantitative qualitative
On identification of emerging risks & (missed) opportunities
Identification Scope Top-Down I nwar rd-loo oking Horizon Scanning Strategy 1 ILTD Horizon Scanning Strategy 3 ILBU Horizon Scanning Strategy 2 OLTD Horizon Scanning Strategy 4 OLBU Outwa ard-lo ookin ng Bottom-Up
Identification Sources (1/3) 2009 Space (primarily Inward-Looking) Outward-Looking & IL: 2010 Space interviews Etc. interviews social networks blogs scientific journals
Identification Sources (2/3) Knowledge sources prospective estrategic n senselogi ical critical intuit tive commo social children networks workshops? research science fiction? projects media blogs surveys expert workshops books journal articles interviews other sources unfamili ar familiar knowledgeabl e expert
Identification Sources (3/3) Introducing SNA and systemic analyses into our Mapping Foresight work In a way, research in Social Sciences is the binder of all research topics in the foresight exercises. This is quite the opposite with research within Humanities, which have the least salient links to other research topics in the exercise. A Natural sciences A04 Chemical Science (key broker) A06 Biological Science B Engineering & Technology B02 Industrial Biotechnology & Food Sciences B04 Manufacturing Engineering B09 Environmental Engineering (key broker) B10 Materials Engineering g B11 Biomedical Engineering B12 Electrical and Electronic Engineering B13 Communications Technologies (key broker) C Medical sciences C01 Medicine General C05 Pharmacology & Pharmaceutical Sciences C12 Public Health & Health Services (key broker) D Agricultural sciences D01 Crop and Pasture Production (key broker) E E01 E02 E03 E04 E05 Social sciences Education Economics Commerce, management, tourism & services Policy and Political Science (key broker) Studies in human society 23
Health (392 projects scanned 2007-2010) 6.1 billion FP7 (11%) Coo (19%) Biotechnology, generic tools and medical technologies for human health Translating research for human health Optimising the delivery of health care to European citizens 47, 12% 58, 15% 53, 14% 32, 8% Other actions High-throughput research 234, 59% 35, 9% Detection, diagnosis and monitoring Prediction of suitability, safety and efficacy of therapies 90, 24% 76, 19% 33, 8% 3 4 2 1 Innovative therapeutic approaches and interventions Integration of biological data and processes: large-scale data gathering, systems biology Research on the brain and related diseases, human development and ageing Transnational research on infectious diseases Transnational research on other major diseases: cancer, cardiovascular disease, diabetes/obesity, rare diseases, other chronic diseases Translation of clinical outcome into clinical practice, including better use of medicines Quality, efficiency and solidarity of health care systems Enhanced health promotion and disease prevention 36 WI-WE 14 Wild Cards 22 Weak Signals 5 Horizontal cooperation and support actions SIC A on Optimising the delivery of health care to European citizens Coordination and Support actions Responding to EU policy needs Specific International C ooperation Actions (SIC A)
KBBE (139 projects scanned 2007-2010) 1.9 billion FP7 (4%) Coo (6%) Sustainable production and management of biological resources from land, forest and aquatic environments Fork to farm: Food (including seafood), health and well-being 14; 12% Life sciences, biotechnology and biochemistry for sustainable non-food products and processes 38; 31% 69; 57% Enabling research 1 Increased sustainability of all production systems (agriculture, fisheries and aquaculture) Optimised animal health production and welfare across agriculture, fisheries and aquaculture 11, 8% 10, 7% 29, 22% 2 Socio-economic research and support to policies Consumers Nutrition 9, 6% 9, 6% 16 WI-WE 24, 17% 10 Wild Cards 6 Weak Signals 5 5 4 3 Food processing Food quality and safety Environmental impacts and total food chain Novel sources of biomass and bioproducts Marine and fresh-water biotechnology (blue biotechnology) Industrial biotechnology: Novel high added-value bioproducts and bioprocesses Biorefinery Environmental biotechnology Emerging trends in biotechnology
Interpretations are really important McArthur's Universal Corrective Map of the World South North We are her e
Identification methodology Identification Framework Assessment We S = Situation-bounded Wi S4 emerging / new issues Impact Probability Uncertainty Importance level of unce ertainty We We We n interp pretatio discontinuation Wi S1 Wi S3 re-emerging issues issues Wi S2 asse essment continuation issues past future
Identification: using workshops Step 1: ready historic/past issues
Identification: using workshops Step 2: steady issues generated by Your Team
Identification: using workshops Step 3: go! brainstorming on: Unexpected drivers synergies solutions to Grand Challenges your own work / expertise
Identification: using workshops Workshop Outcomes iknow outcomes wild situations Wild features / factors Interpretations Impacts Actors Actions* (Weak) Signals actions & recommendations Policy Business Research
Post-identification: interconnecting Issue Management System
Post-identification: interconnecting Identification of emerging issues top top top Wi-We Wi We keywords keywords keywords
Filters: European Grand Challenges
Filters: European Grand Challenges
interdisciplinary and interactive early warning system interconnecting knowledge (convergence-interdisciplinary) new research questions new research agendas impact on Grand Challenges identification of problems identification of solutions relevance to EU research sense-making pattern recognition emerging issues informing policy possible futures prototype
R P R. Popper (2010)
Post-identification: Communication strategy Policy Brief ID Links to FP7 Author(s) Contributor(s) Manifestation Strategic attention Type of impact Inspired by iknow workshops iknow interviews iknow delphi iknow scanning iknow Community Related to Links to ERA Impacts in Europe infrastructures peoples lives regulation & legislation defence & security government & politics environment & ecosystems science & technology Keywords Short description Surprising features Page 1 of 4
Exploiting iknow Policy Briefs Imaginary Call Thematic area(s) Research topic Objective Expected impact Importance for Europe Page 4 of 4
Thank you! Any questions? Rafael Popper rafael.popper@manchester.ac.uk 40