National Subsea Research Initiative Subsea Storage Workshop - Aberdeen NSRI the focal point for Research and Development for the UK subsea industry Peter Blake; NSRI Chairman 2016
Agenda AM Scene setting: Economics and context State of the Art Issues / challenges arising PM Workshop Concept Selection Construction Operations
National Subsea Research Initiative Subsea Storage overview, economic challenge and meeting objective NSRI the focal point for Research and Development for the UK subsea industry Peter Blake; NSRI Chairman 2016
Overview Reminder of hackathon economics study 2015 New work in progress data Conclusive remarks
6 Economics study : Size of Prize Assumption $60/ bbl Methodology Economic viability measure determined from operators profitability discount index, post tax (discounted at 10%) > 0.3; Production profiles of small pools drawn from DECC and averaged Industry norms used to determine CAPEX; OPEX and Decom costs Deterministic and probabilistic approaches taken
7 Economics study : Size of Prize Results The smallest size of pool that becomes economic is 11.MBoe. (existing technology) If a cost (C&O) reduction of 25% can be achieved, all things remaining constant, that become 9.1MBoe. (new technology, efficiency measures) For a cost reduction of 50% then that becomes 5.8MBoe. (disruptive technology) This corresponds to opening up approximately 150 of the pools, $19Billion of CAPEX & $16Billion of OPEX and recovers 1.06Billion barrels.
Overview Reminder of hackathon economics study 2015 New Work in Progress data Conclusive remarks
Draft data from mapping exercise The following slides are compiled by the OGA as part of their contribution to assisting in MER and the small pools initiative. This is work in progress and maybe subject to Change Our objective is to be able to demonstrate to the supply chain the opportunity it s size in value and geographically such that we can fit technology solutions such as storage tanks to real prospects
2015 Undeveloped Discoveries Summary Number of Undeveloped Discoveries = 363 P50 Recoverable Resources (mmboe) <3 = 129 wells 3 15 = 171 wells 3-100 = 225 wells >100 = 4 wells No data = 5 wells 10 Subsea Storage overview, economic challenge and meeting objective
Area Map 11 Subsea Storage overview, economic challenge and meeting objective
Frequency 2015 DATA Undeveloped Discoveries P50 Distribution 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 0-3 4-6 7-9 10-12 13-15 >15 Ranges of P50 Recoverable Resources (mmboe) 12 Subsea Storage overview, economic challenge and meeting objective
Distance (km) to Infrastructure 2014 DATA Pipeline 300 Distance to Pipeline 250 200 150 100 50 CNS MF NNS SNS WoS MB WxB 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 P50 Recoverable (mmboe) 13 Subsea Storage overview, economic challenge and meeting objective
Distance (km) to Infrastructure Pipeline Focused Graph 15 Distance to Pipeline 10 CNS MF NNS 5 SNS WoS MB WxB 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 P50 Recoverable (mmboe) Subsea 14 Storage overview, economic challenge and meeting objective
P50 Recoverabl Resource (mmboe) Beacon is included in EC Resources by area: Changing small pools to pools.. 1,000 Total P50 (3 to 100mmboe) recoverable by Area 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 SNS CNS NNS WOS ISB EC MF LAND 100 0 Total P50 rec 3 to 100 (mmboe) 15 Subsea Storage overview, economic challenge and meeting objective
Distance (km) to Infrastructure Pipeline 300 Distance to Pipeline 250 200 150 100 50 CNS MF NNS SNS WoS MB WxB 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 P50 Recoverable (mmboe) 16 Subsea Storage overview, economic challenge and meeting objective
Overview Reminder of hackathon economics study 2015 New Work in Progress data Conclusive remarks
Conclusive Remarks The scope for stand alone facilities is not as big as was anticipated Changing small pools definition to 3 100 mmboe effectively doubles the size from ~1200 to ~2600 mmboe although the concentration is in the range 3-50mmBoe
Conclusive Remarks Very Coarse economics Oil price $40 /bbl Lifting costs (best case) $15/bbl (assumes tank soln comparable) Pre tax profit margin say 20% 40 (0.2 x 40) 13 = $17/bbl Capex for development of Pool size $ 10mmboe 170 million 25mmBoe 425 million 50mmBoe 850 million
Conclusive Remarks Very Coarse economics Looking at it another way Conventional subsea tie back flowline typically $3million / KM Can subsea storage be competitive These aspects should be kept in mind this afternoon: its technology at a price;
Further work NSRI remains committed to identifying the size of the prize, communicating that and ensuring technology developers efforts are targeted to a specific, market application. Enjoy your day