Running the Commercialization Rapids with New Technology

Running the Commercialization Rapids with New Technology Margaret Lewis Software Strategy CPG Commercial Paul Teich Business Strategy CPG Server/Workstation AMD

Session Outline Why Model Technology Adoption? Technology Adoption Waterfall Riding the Commercialization Rapids A Few Examples Server and Client Computers Internet Mapping Current Technology Trends 64-bit Computing Multi-core Processors Virtualization What Have We Learned?

Why Model Technology Adoption? Create a visual representation of market trends Useful for evaluating adoption over a span of time Gain insights from past adoption cycles Lessons from both successes and failures Track the progress of emerging technology Respond to changes in adoption patterns Identify changing marketing dynamics Make corrections to keep on course

Technology Adoption Waterfall Riding the Commercialization Rapids Innovators Early Adopters Early Majority Commercial Consumer Late Majority General model that is widely applicable Must cross over at each segment Not all technologies ride the rapids to become mainstream Commercialization

Technology Adoption Waterfall Innovators Early Adopters Early Majority Commercial Consumer Late Majority Groundbreakers who help to open up a new line of technology Visionaries who are ahead- of-the the-curve in their attitudes and behaviors Pragmatists who are more process-oriented oriented but willing to invest in new technology Skeptics who have a more negative attitude toward technology Commercialization

Technology Adoption Waterfall Innovators Enthusiasts willing to try new technology Provide valuable first experiences Early Adopters Can be convinced to try new technology Supply initial success stories Early Majority Need references and guidance to try new technology Want safety measures to guard against failure Late Majority Extremely cautious in trying new technology Need proof points to accept product s value

Technology Adoption Waterfall Innovators 5% Early Adopters 15% Early Majority 35% Commercial Consumer Late Majority 45% Commercialization Commercial Research Technical Computing General Business Laggard Consumer Trailblazer Prosumer General Consumer Laggard

A Few Examples - Computers - Servers Innovators Early Adopters Early Majority Late Majority 1943 ENIAC 1951 UNIVAC 1952 IBM 701 1964 IBM 360 1970s UNIVAC 1971 IBM 370 1988 IBM AS/400 2005 IBM zseries 1990 2001 1970 UNIX 1994 IBM RS/6000 HP rx PC 1972 2003 Clusters 1981 DOS HP 3000 Commercial 1991 Windows x64 1985 Windows 1986-87 LINUX 2005 1980-85 IBM PC/RT HP Integrity HP PC HP Spectrum IBM PC Sun SPARC Compaq PC Dell PC 1998 IBM pseries 2005 2005 Blades 2005 Consumer Sun HP 9000 SPARC 2002-2005 IBM pseries 1993 Windows NT Apple xseries 1994 Compaq ProLiant Commercialization 2000 Sun x86 2003 Windows Server 2005 HP ProLiant IBM e series

A Few Examples - Computers - Servers First uses of computers by innovators ENIAC - ballistics firing tables UNIVAC - predict 1952 presidential election IBM is major driver to commercial acceptance New technologies can opt to start at the top IBM Power and Itanium systems Not all technologies survived the waterfall Examples: UNIVAC Operating systems offer major inflection points UNIX a driver from early adopter to early majority Windows a major influence in driving to late majority

A Few Examples - Computers - Clients Innovators Early Adopters Early Majority Late Majority 1973 1975 HP-35 Altair Calculator 1977 1980-85 Tandy Osborne, Compaq Commodore Portable Apple II HP, IBM, Dell PCs 1983 TRS80 IV Commodore 64 1983 Lisa 1984 Macintosh 1991 Apple PowerBook 1998 Apple imac Consumer Commercial 1981 DOS 1.0 1985 Windows 1.0 1990 Windows 3.0 1992-1995 IBM Thinkpad Compaq Presario Dell Dimension HP Pavilion 2005 Mac Mini 1979 Cell Phone Windows 95 Windows XP HP Pavillion Alienware Aurora Compaq Presario Voodoo Rage 1993 Apple Newton 1994 Digital Cell 1996 Phone PalmPilot MSFT Pocket PC 1999 Blackberry 2001 Apple ipod Commercialization

A Few Examples - Computers - Clients Innovators were engineers and scientists Initial use was as a hobbyist (DIY) or engineering tool Form factor has always been a driving force Apple continues move to commercialization with niche market and/or special focus products The influence of a standard operating system (Windows) and open hardware platform (x86) enabled adoption by broader audience Commercialization is based on continued evolution of client in terms of Form factor Specialized functions

A Few Examples - Internet Innovators 1969 - DARPANET 1972 - ARPANET 4 hosts 23 host Early Adopters Early Majority Late Majority 1983 - TPC/IP becomes protocol Commercial 1984 - Domain Name Serve introduced 1990 - ARPANET decommissioned 1991 - Gopher search and retrieval tool 1991 - World Wide Web is launched 1993 - Mosaic graphical browser Commercial providers can sell to individuals 1994 - Netscape 1.0 1995 - First wireless Internet demo 4 million hosts 1996 - MSFT Internet Explorer Consumer 500 hosts 25 million users Feb. 2005 there are 814 million users or 12.7% of world population Commercialization

A Few Examples - Internet How do you count commercialization - worldwide or developed countries? 12.7% worldwide - but near domination in developed countries Microsoft Explorer - dominant design emerges Driving acceptance to late majority in developed countries For worldwide commercialization - internet access needs to get even easier 50 x 15 effort by AMD is an example

Emerging Technology - 64-bit Computing Innovators Early Adopters 1992 DEC Alpha SGI R4000 (MIPS) 1995-1997 UltraSPARC HP PA-RISC IBM Power 2001 Itanium Commercial 2004 Itanium2 2003 AMD64 2004 EM64T Early Majority 2002-2005 IBM pseries Apple xseries Late Majority Consumer Commercialization

Emerging Technology - 64-bit Computing Logical evolution in computing Innovators pushing against 32-bit memory limitations Technical applications, Gaming systems, Graphics, Database 64-bit hardware began to appear in 1990 s RISC successful in pushing to early majority Took 10 years for x86-based processors to catch up Entering the era of pervasive 64-bit computing Windows x64 major inflection point AMD and Intel shipping 64-bit hardware as mainstream Adoption based on running a 64-bit OS How well platform runs OS can be differentiating factor

Emerging Technology - Multi-Core Innovators Early Adopters 2004 IBM Power Sun SPARC 2005 Itanium 2005 2005 AMD Opteron AMD Athlon64 Early Majority Late Majority Commercialization

Emerging Technology - Multi-Core Multi-core RISC, EPIC, and x86-based processors are emerging at the same time x86-based processors are not the lagging follower Early in the adoption cycle Initial acceptance is critical to good adoption Performance and software licensing major concerns Multi-core promises to improve performance and efficiency of multi-threaded environments RISC systems grew up running a multi-threaded application X86-based systems have learned to expertly juggle multiple single applications

Emerging Technology - Virtualization Innovators Early Adopters 1958 Altos - First Virtual Memory machine 1960 s IBM virtual machine systems 1997-1999 Connectix and VMware intro x86 products 2004 Zen Open Source Hypervisor Early Majority 1996 Sun introduces 2001 static partitioning VMware ESX 2002 Solaris Containers 2003 MSFT buys Connectix Late Majority Commercialization

Emerging Technology - Virtualization Innovators used virtualization to solve resource utilization issues of mainframe environment IBM made virtual machine standard for their mainframes Sun made partitioning a core component of SPARC/Solaris As x86-based servers move to commercialization, virtualization technology has began to emerge Matching feature set of mainframe and RISC Striving for better resource utilization Microsoft purchased Connectix to integrate virtualization directly into Windows Following mainframe/risc approach of tight coupling of OS and hypervisor or resource manager

Call To Action Can you speed-up the waterfall? Yes, Internet adoption showcases what happens when right inflection points hit at the same time Are there exceptions to the flow? Yes, recently, mass market as tech driver - certain client devices poised for acceptance outside of flow Will early adopters continue to strongly influence general technology direction? True in case of 64-bit - already moving from early adopters to early majority For virtualization - need to see how fast we will move from early adopters to early majority Dual core will be a case to track

Additional Resources Web Resources: 50 x 15: http://50x15.amd.com/home/default.aspx Internet statistics: http://www.internetworldstats.com/stats.htm Crossing the Chasm: Marketing and Selling High- Tech Products to Mainstream Customers by Geoffrey A. Moore Diffusion of Innovation Theory http://www.ciadvertising.org/studies/student/98_fall/the ory/hornor/paper1.html