Welcome to the 10 th Annual Real Estate Symposium for The Lake of the Ozarks October 5th, 2017 Osage National Golf Resort
Economic and Real Estate Market Outlook October, 2017 Steve Snook, Senior Business Consultant RE/MAX Mid-States and Dixie Region
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Existing Home Sales 7,500,000 7,000,000 6,500,000 6,000,000 5,500,000 5,000,000 4,500,000 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000
New Home Sales 1,400Thousand units 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0
20 Young Adults Living with Parents % of those aged 25 to 34 15 10 5 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Jan 5 2012 Mar 22 2012 Jun 7 2012 Aug 23 2012 Nov 8 2012 Jan 24 2013 Apr 11 2013 Jun 27 2013 Sep 12 2013 Nov 28 2013 Feb 13 2014 May 1 2014 Jul 17 2014 Oct 2 2014 Dec 18 2014 Mar 5 2015 May 21 2015 Aug 6 2015 Oct 22 2015 Jan 7 2016 Mar 24 2016 Jun 9 2016 Aug 25 2016 Nov 10 2016 Jan 26 2017 Apr 13 2017 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 Mortgage Rates 30-year Fixed Rate
Jan 01 2016 Jan 25 2016 Feb 16 2016 Mar 09 2016 Mar 31 2016 Apr 22 2016 May 16 2016 Jun 07 2016 Jun 29 2016 Jul 21 2016 Aug 12 2016 Sep 05 2016 Sep 27 2016 Oct 19 2016 Nov 10 2016 Dec 02 2016 Dec 26 2016 Jan 17 2017 Feb 08 2017 Mar 02 2017 Mar 24 2017 Apr 17 2017 May 09 2017 2500 2400 2300 2200 2100 2000 1900 1800 Stock Market: S&P 500 Index
2011 - Jan 2011 - May 2011 - Sep 2012 - Jan 2012 - May 2012 - Sep 2013 - Jan 2013 - May 2013 - Sep 2014 - Jan 2014 - May 2014 - Sep 2015 - Jan 2015 - May 2015 - Sep 2016 - Jan 2016 - May 2016 - Sep 2017 - Jan Inventory of Homes Low Months Supply 10 8 6 4 2 0 Low Supply over the past 5 year Home price grew by 41% 4 times faster than income
2011 - May 2011 - Jul 2011 - Sep 2011 - Nov 2012 - Jan 2012 - Mar 2012 - May 2012 - Jul 2012 - Sep 2012 - Nov 2013 - Jan 2013 - Mar 2013 - May 2013 - Jul 2013 - Sep 2013 - Nov 2014 - Jan 2014 - Mar 2014 - May 2014 - Jul 2014 - Sep 2014 - Nov 2015 - Jan 2015 - Mar 2015 - May 2015 - Jul 2015 - Sep 2015 - Nov 2016 - Jan 2016 - Mar 2016 - May 2016 - Jul 2016 - Sep 2016 - Nov 2017 - Jan 2017 - Mar 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Median Days on Market 34 days vs 47 days one year ago
2011 - May 2011 - Aug 2011 - Nov 2012 - Feb 2012 - May 2012 - Aug 2012 - Nov 2013 - Feb 2013 - May 2013 - Aug 2013 - Nov 2014 - Feb 2014 - May 2014 - Aug 2014 - Nov 2015 - Feb 2015 - May 2015 - Aug 2015 - Nov 2016 - Feb 2016 - May 2016 - Aug 2016 - Nov 2017 - Feb Months to Sell a Newly Built Home 10 8 6 4 2 0
2008 - Oct 2009 - Feb 2009 - Jun 2009 - Oct 2010 - Feb 2010 - Jun 2010 - Oct 2011 - Feb 2011 - Jun 2011 - Oct 2012 - Feb 2012 - Jun 2012 - Oct 2013 - Feb 2013 - Jun 2013 - Oct 2014 - Feb 2014 - Jun 2014 - Oct 2015 - Feb 2015 - Jun 2015 - Oct 2016 - Feb 2016 - Jun 2016 - Oct 2017 - Feb 1500 1300 1100 900 700 500 300 100-100 Single-family Housing Starts (Cannot Ramp Up because of Lots, Labor, Lending, Lumber) Thousand units
350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 Median Home Price: New vs. Existing
1990 - Q1 1991 - Q1 1992 - Q1 1993 - Q1 1994 - Q1 1995 - Q1 1996 - Q1 1997 - Q1 1998 - Q1 1999 - Q1 2000 - Q1 2001 - Q1 2002 - Q1 2003 - Q1 2004 - Q1 2005 - Q1 2006 - Q1 2007 - Q1 2008 - Q1 2009 - Q1 2010 - Q1 2011 - Q1 2012 - Q1 2013 - Q1 2014 - Q1 2015 - Q1 2016 - Q1 2017 - Q1 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 Homeowners Equity in Real Estate $ billion
12.0 Borrowers Not Defaulting 10.0 8.0 6.0 All Mortgages FHA Mortgages 4.0 2.0 0.0 Veterans Affairs Mortgages 2005 20052006200620072007200820082009200920102010201120112012201220132013201420142015201520162016 - Q1 - Q3 - Q1 - Q3 - Q1 - Q3 - Q1 - Q3 - Q1 - Q3 - Q1 - Q3 - Q1 - Q3 - Q1 - Q3 - Q1 - Q3 - Q1 - Q3 - Q1 - Q3 - Q1 - Q3
1965 - Q1 1967 - Q1 1969 - Q1 1971 - Q1 1973 - Q1 1975 - Q1 1977 - Q1 1979 - Q1 1981 - Q1 1983 - Q1 1985 - Q1 1987 - Q1 1989 - Q1 1991 - Q1 1993 - Q1 1995 - Q1 1997 - Q1 1999 - Q1 2001 - Q1 2003 - Q1 2005 - Q1 2007 - Q1 2009 - Q1 2011 - Q1 2013 - Q1 2015 - Q1 2017 - Q1 70 68 66 64 62 60 Homeownership Rate Still Near 50-year Lows
Homeownership Rate and Home Price 70 60 50 West Northeast South Midwest $400,000 $200,000 West Northeast South Midwest $0
Home Price Growth Expectations REALTORS Consumers NY Fed Survey Economists WSJ Panelists Consumers Fannie Mae Consumers NAR HOME Survey 4.0% 5.1% 4.1% 53% prices will rise 51% prices will rise Next 12 months Next 12 months Next 12 months 8% prices will fall 7% price will fall
GDP Growth Rates 5 4 3 2 1 0 Reagan GHW Bush Clinton GW Bush Obama Trump Q1 Trump Q2
2001 - Jan 2001 - Sep 2002 - May 2003 - Jan 2003 - Sep 2004 - May 2005 - Jan 2005 - Sep 2006 - May 2007 - Jan 2007 - Sep 2008 - May 2009 - Jan 2009 - Sep 2010 - May 2011 - Jan 2011 - Sep 2012 - May 2013 - Jan 2013 - Sep 2014 - May 2015 - Jan 2015 - Sep 2016 - May 2017 - Jan 6500 6000 5500 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 In thousands Total Job Openings
2001 - Jan 2001 - Aug 2002 - Mar 2002 - Oct 2003 - May 2003 - Dec 2004 - Jul 2005 - Feb 2005 - Sep 2006 - Apr 2006 - Nov 2007 - Jun 2008 - Jan 2008 - Aug 2009 - Mar 2009 - Oct 2010 - May 2010 - Dec 2011 - Jul 2012 - Feb 2012 - Sep 2013 - Apr 2013 - Nov 2014 - Jun 2015 - Jan 2015 - Aug 2016 - Mar 2016 - Oct 700 600 500 400 300 200 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Filings In thousands
2000 - Jan 2000 - Jul 2001 - Jan 2001 - Jul 2002 - Jan 2002 - Jul 2003 - Jan 2003 - Jul 2004 - Jan 2004 - Jul 2005 - Jan 2005 - Jul 2006 - Jan 2006 - Jul 2007 - Jan 2007 - Jul 2008 - Jan 2008 - Jul 2009 - Jan 2009 - Jul 2010 - Jan 2010 - Jul 2011 - Jan 2011 - Jul 2012 - Jan 2012 - Jul 2013 - Jan 2013 - Jul 2014 - Jan 2014 - Jul 2015 - Jan 2015 - Jul 2016 - Jan 2016 - Jul 2017 - Jan 150,000 In thousands Jobs (8M lost 16 M gained) 145,000 140,000 135,000 130,000 125,000 120,000
Jobs by Sector Net Change over past 12 months (in thousands) Information Mining & Logging Federal Govt Manufacturing Wholesale Real Estate & Leasing Retail Sales Education Financial & Insurance State & Local Govt Construction Administrative Service Hospitality Professional & Tech Service Health Care -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
80000 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 Retiree Population Projection (in thousands)
Economic Forecast 2015 2016 2017 Forecast 2018 Forecast GDP Growth 2.6% 1.6% 2.2% 2.4% Job Growth +2.6 million +2.0 million +2.1 million +2.4 million CPI Inflation 0.3% 1.3% 2.3% 2.2%
Housing Forecast 2015 2016 2017 Forecast 2018 Forecast New Home Sales Existing Home Sales Median Price Growth 500,000 560,000 620,000 670,000 5.3 million 5.4 million 5.6 million 5.8 million + 6.8% +5.1% +5.0% +3.5% 30-year Rate 3.9% 3.6% 4.3% 5.0%
Watch List o Natural Disasters Flood Insurance (To keep or not to keep) o Tax Law Changes - Mortgage Interest Deduction and More o International Relations Doing business with other countries o Supply of labor and raw materials We ve been here before
More Things to Watch o Immigration Issues o Health Care Costs o Natural Resource Depletion o Race Relations o Technology vs. People o Home Grown Terrorism and
So what can we do? Get involved locally Support effective leadership Don t complain do something See the world for what it can be
A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty. Winston Churchill
It s Personal When asked to choose between two statements, most homeowners (52 percent) view their home more as an important financial investment, but almost as many (48 percent) view their home more as an important reflection of self and emblem of who they are personally.
Thank You!
The Lake of the Ozarks Real Estate Market Jason Whittle & Jeff Krantz
Total Transactions All Property Types Through 3 rd Quarter of each Year 3000 2500 2000 1874 2050 2151 2456 1500 1340 1378 1000 500 0 Total Sales 2009 2010 2014 2015 2016 2017 14% Increase 2016 to 2017, 5% Increase 2015 to 2016, 9.4% Increase since 2014 to 2015 83% Increase since 2009 (market low in # of Sales)
Total Volume All Property Types 600,000,000 Through 3 rd Quarter of each Year 500,000,000 506,000,000 400,000,000 348,000,000 389,000,000 407,000,000 300,000,000 250,000,000 247,000,000 200,000,000 100,000,000 0 Total Sales 2009 2010 2014 2015 2016 2017 24.3% increase from 2016 2017, 4.7 increase from 2015 2016, 11.6% increase from 2014 2015. 105% increase since 2010 ( market low in volume)
Median Price Residential Homes 200,000 180,000 160,000 140,000 139,000 Through 3 rd Quarter each Year 168,000 171,000 164,000 161,000 155,000 184000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 Total Sales 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 7.6% increase from 2016 2017 32.4% increase since 2011
$110.00 Price Per Sqft Residential Homes Through 3 rd Quarter of each year. $[VALUE] $105.00 $100.00 $95.00 $101.00 $102 $99.00 $97.00 $96.00 $92.00 $90.00 $85.00 $80.00 Price per sqft 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 5.9% increase from 2016 to 2017 17.4% increase since 2012
Inventory Includes all New Listings that came on the market through 3 rd Quarter of Each Year 8000 7000 6000 5000 5474 7105 New Listings 6188 6150 6006 5988 4000 3000 New Listings 2000 1000 0 2009 2010 2014 2015 2016 2017
Market Absorption Rates: through 3 rd Quarter of each year 7105 New Listings 1378 Total Sales 1 Sale out of every 5.15 Listings 6188 New Listings 1874 Total Sales 1 Sale out of every 3.3 Listings 6150 New Listings 2050 Total Sales 1 Sale out of every 3 Listings 6006 New Listings 2151 Total Sales 1 Sale out of every 2.79 Listings 5988 New Listings 2456 Total Sales 1 Sale out of every 2.44
Today s Current Inventory 1320 Residential Homes & Villas 449 Condominiums 36 Farms 1221 Lots 290 Commercial
The Make Up of the Lake Market 8% 2% 2% 1% 2017 Sales through 3rd Quarter 28% 30% 30% Waterfront Res Offwater Res Condominum Lots & Lands Commercial Villa Farms
Total Lake of the Ozarks Sales by Month 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEPT OCT NOV DEC 2015 132 142 195 250 263 301 276 244 250 268 171 178 2016 118 156 237 259 280 291 244 281 289 276 216 214 2017 144 131 281 259 317 363 285 356 316
Fourth Quarter % of Sales per Year 2016 24.7% 2015 23.1% 2014 23.4% The myth of slow Winter Time Sales at the lake has been BUSTED!
Residential Waterfront Market through the 3 rd Quarter Year # Sales Volume (millions) Average Sold Price (thousands) 2009 378 $117.1 $309.7 2010 387 $116.9 $302 2014 562 $168.2 $299.3 2015 593 $184.4 $311 2016 548 $177.9 $324.6 2017 732 $247.5 $337.2
Residential Waterfront Market through 3 rd Quarter Residential Waterfront Foreclosure Sales Sales % of Sales 2011 40 9.5% 2017 21 2.9%
Residential Off-Water Market through 3 rd Quarter Year # Sales Volume (millions) Average Sold Price (thousands) 2009 447 $51.9 $116.1 2010 479 $53.2 $111 2014 595 $73.3 $123.1 2015 626 $79.9 $127.7 2016 686 $90.2 $131.5 2017 742 $109.9 $148.1
Residential Off-Water Market through 3 rd Quarter Residential Off-Water Foreclosure Sales Sales % of Sales 2011 173 39% 2017 61 8.2%
Condominium Market through 3 rd Quarter Year # Sales Volume (millions) Average Sold Price (thousands) 2009 330 $56.1 $170.1 2010 336 $54.7 $162.7 2014 443 $73.5 $166 2015 524 $83 $158.3 2016 559 $87.5 $156.6 2017 677 $106.8 $157.8
Commercial Market through 3 rd Quarter Year # Sales Volume (millions) Average Sold Price (thousands) 2009 23 $5.7 $248 2010 22 $8.1 $369 2014 51 $10.5 $206 2015 55 $12.2 $222 2016 61 $17 $279 2017 42 $12.2 $290
Questions?
Developer Panel: Sam Adler Fred Dehner
Sam Adler Development Director for The Staenberg Group (TSG) with primary responsibility and oversight for new development and/or redevelopment activities across the portfolio. Sam also leads Third Party brokerage activities for some of TSG s national retail and restaurant clients. Sam brings more than 8 years of experience in multiple facets of the real estate industry including leasing, development, project management, third party brokerage and land acquisition. Prior to joining TSG, Sam managed all leasing activities for a 6 million square foot portfolio at THF Realty. A graduate of the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University, Sam double majored in Finance and Real Estate. He is a member of the International Council of Shopping Centers, and a licensed Salesperson in the State of Missouri.
Fred Dehner General Manager, Tan-Tar-A Resort, began work at the resort as an intern in 1988. In 1994, he returned to Tan-Tar-A, serving in various management positions. He was promoted to General Manager in 2003. From the St. Louis area, Dehner attended the University of Missouri-Columbia, graduating in 1988 with a Degree in Hotel/Restaurant Management.
Real Estate Predictions 2018
So, Lets see how I did on my first attempt at our Predictions last year? My first Prediction for 2017 was: I Predict that 2017 will be another positive year in the real estate market at the lake with steady 4% - 6% gains in number of sales and slightly larger 6% - 8% gains in volume. Volume increasing more than sales is the only part of this prediction that was even close! With gains of 14% in sales and 24% in volume I would say I missed the mark big time! Grade???
My second Prediction was: I predict that 2017 will be another year of the incredible low interest rates with not more than slight ½ to 1 point fluctuations. Interest rates in 2017 have stayed consistently under 4.5% within a point of the 2016 low of mid to high 3.5% to 4% in 2016. Grade???
My third prediction was: Condo sales in 2016 have been flat compared to 2015 in both number of sales and volume. 2017 will show an increase in the number of condo sales and a greater increase in the sales volume. I also predict new condominium project developments once again being announced for construction. Condo sales increased 21% and 22% in volume over 2016. There are also new projects on the horizon such as The Condo s at Lakeside, a brand new project in planning off of Passover Rd in Osage Beach as well as several projects that are now being finished & renewed such as The Cypress at the Lake and West Palms on the Lake. Grade???
My fourth prediction was: Continued growth in the Commercial Market at the Lake. We may not experience the 31% increase we did in 2016 but a 20% increase is likely in 2017. Unfortunately our Commercial market declined as compared to 2016 by 31% in sales and 28% in volume. Grade??? - I don t want to know!!!
My final prediction was: We will see a continued improvement in our Off-Water Residential Market. We are continuing to grow as a full time community and the 10% gain we saw this year isn t done, I predict another strong 8-10% gain in this market in 2017. 8% increase in sales was right on, but I didn t anticipate a 22% increase in Volume! Grade???
Predictions for
1. Again in 2018 Interest rates will remain stable with only slight gains of.5% to 1% possible which will continue to bolster consumer confidence. 2. Condo sales will again see large gains due to the new units entering the market and healthy resale market continuing. Number of sales will increase 10% - 12% and volume increases will again be over 15%. 3. Large gains compared to 2017 will also come in the waterfront luxury market sales over $500,000, both in number of sales and in volume. I predict a double digit increases of 10% or more in this sector due to new inventory and increases in average sale prices.
Our Speakers Today Steve Snook, RE/MAX MidStates Jason Whittle, RE/MAX Lake of the Ozarks Fred Dehner, Driftwood Acquisitions Sam Adler, Osage Commons Special Thanks to Tarah Kenney, Phoebe Long, George Bogema, and Osage National!
Thank You to our Sponsor Ed Lowther 573-302-2364
Thank You Remember, the 2017 Symposium Information can be found on our Website: www.lakeretrends.com