Dr. Gene Leon IMF Senior Resident Representative, Jamaica May 2, 2013 1
We can and should do better Embrace unbounded imagination Uphold credibility as the handmaiden of ability Adopt a holistic approach Can KIDS be a transformative vision? 2
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Take a hard look at where we are - assess initial conditions Don t get stuck in glue denial is probably the greatest impediment to growth Summon the fire to transform need emotion (passion), confidence, and discipline 4
GDP per capita 600 500 400 300 200 base= 1995 base= 1980 1000 900 800 100 0 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Trinidad and Tobago St. Lucia Chile Singapore 0 5
12.0 Average Real GDP Growth (%) 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0-2.0-4.0-6.0 Barbados Trinidad & Tobago St. Lucia 6
50.0 Current Account (% of GDP) 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0-10.0-20.0-30.0-40.0 Barbados Trinidad & Tobago St. Lucia 7
Caribbean: Public Debt-to-GDP, 2011 (Percent) Haiti Dominican Republic Trinidad and Tobago St. Vincent and the Grenadines St Lucia Dominica Average Barbados Grenada Jamaica St Kitts and Nevis 0 50 100 150 200 Source: IMF staff calculations. 8
Average Overall Public Sector Balance (% of GDP) 10 5 0-5 -10 Barbados St. Lucia Trinidad & Tobago 9
Singapore 1 Chile 37 St Lucia Ghana 53 St Lucia performed best in 64 Trinidad and Tobago 69 Barbados 88 0 20 40 60 80 100 10
Paying Taxes Starting a Business 120 100 80 60 40 20 St Lucia 0performed best in Dealing with Construction Permits Protecting Investors Getting Electricity Singapore St Lucia Trinidad and Tobago 11
Resolving Insolvency Registering Property 200 150 100 50 0 Getting Credit Enforcing Contract Trading Across Borders Singapore St Lucia Trinidad and Tobago 12
100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Corruption Perception Index Barbados Chile Ghana Singapore St Lucia Trinidad and Tobago 13
1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 Human Development Index Ghana St Lucia Trinidad and Tobago Barbados Chile Singapore 14
Halving poverty requires rapid sustained economic growth and a reduction in inequality Focusing social spending on reducing poverty and hunger, and for investing in human capital Strengthening social institutions to ensure transparency, efficiency, and accountability Increasing investment in infrastructure Implementing early warning systems to reduce vulnerability to natural disasters 15
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Requires: Unbounded Imagination Unlimited exploration Departure from current paradigm 18
Address core areas of development Consider resource and financial constraints Develop clear prioritization relative to objectives Pay attention to sequencing Stay the course 19
In general, we are net importers of: Capital Skills Technology Energy Can we be net exporters? 20
Transform Exchange Create Extinguish Transfer 21
Build consensus for implementation Government Political Parties Private Sector Civil Society Thought Leaders 22
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Ability takes us 50 percent of the way, the last 50 percent is our choices Choices build or break credibility Some choices are more critical than others Not all choices are equal (critical) 24
Embrace good governance Transparency Accountability Responsibility Communication 25
Governance covers: Economic policies and regulatory framework Adherence to the rule of law Anti-corruption policies that promote trust and build integrity 26
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Social Development Global External Environment Macro Economic & Financial Stability Regulatory Environment Institutional Building 28
Promotes a functional view to economic development Fosters linkages Reduces self-serving behaviors 29
Beliefs Results Potential Action 30
Physical Capital Human Capital Technology Aggregate Production Function REAL GDP Natural Resources Social Infrastructure 31
Natural Resources Gas, Oil, Gold Qatar Saudi Arabia South Africa Services Logistics, Financial Panama Cayman Industry Manufacturing Brazil Germany 32
Physical Capital Human Capital Technology Aggregate Production Function REAL GDP Natural Resources Social Infrastructure 33
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Knowledge Accumulation Innovation Diagnostics Strategies 35
Develop a value-chain around a backbone o Infinite supply of knowledge o vs unlimited supplies of labour (Lewis) o o o Creation of high value-added industries Can afford higher than subsistence wage Many modalities of implementation o No natural comparative disadvantage to limit boundaries KIDS 36
Avoid thinking there are limits to small physical size or critical mass (economic space) o Forge linkages across networks (CoPs) Maintain competitive advantage o Embrace dynamic change o Invest in R&D forward looking vision o CAPSICUM [Caribbean Association for Plant Science, Industry, Commerce and Use in Medicine] KIDS 37
Archive our cumulated experience in a regional database Share benefits of sourcing, data entry, and classification Utilize the accumulated experience of our richly talented diaspora Broaden with successful endeavors from the global village KIDS 38
Promote success factors constant in human existence: o Leverage information into value-added products o o o Create a locus of knowledge excellence Leverage educational establishments as complementary knowledge centers Establish knowledge tourism KIDS 39
Develop a knowledge locus able to craft specific strategic solutions Consult to foreign corporations on success factors relating to opportunities in the region or elsewhere Develop sub-field specialties at the regional level Become a net exporter of knowledge capital KIDS 40
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Community of Practice A group of people who share a concern or a passion for something they do and learn how to do it better as they interact regularly (Etienne Wenger) (e.g., RATS; Farmers) 42
Domain: Passion and interest of the members drives their need to learn Community of Practice Community: Relationships and collective learning bind members together over time Practice: A shared repertoire of resources influences members work 43
Knowledge Transfer Standardize best practices, create consistency Organize and manage a body of knowledge for members use Knowledge Application Develop a particular capability Build and apply intellectual capital to solve challenges Knowledge Diffusion Create a breakthrough of ideas, knowledge and practices Cross boundaries, and capture emerging approaches 44
Lower cost Reduce Risk Collect, vet and store information and best practices Drivers Key Activities Queensland Police Service Technology Reward Index and store Publish to database Improved outcomes Efficiencies 45
Technical Excellence Thought Leadership Drivers Key Activities Enlist key experts Build intellectual capital Synthesize and apply knowledge Library Threaded discussion Technology Reward Professional assistance Creative inspiration Greater adoption and diffusion * Fujitsu Akisai Cloud Initiative 46
Technical leadership Face-to-face forums Teleconference Social media discussions Drivers Technology Key Activities Reward Create new breakthroughs Foster adoption of new approaches Competitive edge Anguilla Commercial Online Registration Network Entrepreneurship Resources and Skills 47
Can we develop dynamic and sustainable new paradigms? Yes! Need bold leadership and vision But buy-in and concerted and collective national responsibility are essential 48
Emotion Proactive Responsibility Passion Integrity Holistic Imagination KIDS Uncertainty Confidence Transformative High Value-Added Discipline Vision Timing Create Credibility Adulthood Change Safety Net Governance
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