The Atmosphere and its Effect on GNSS Systems 14 to 16 April 2008 Santiago, Chile

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Description of a Real-Time Algorithm for Detecting Ionospheric Depletions for SBAS and the Statistics of Depletions in South America During the Peak of the Current Solar Cycle The Atmosphere and its Effect on GNSS Systems 14 to 16 April 2008 Santiago, Chile Dr. M. Bakry El-Arini Dr. Robert Conker, Ing. Roland O. Lejeune (MITRE), Ing. Patricia Doherty, Ing. César Valladares (Boston College, Boston, MA, USA) 125 of 301

Overview Background Purpose Scope Description of the proposed algorithm Results with two movies Summary 126 of 301

Background 1 of 2 Equatorial regions (mag. Equator ±20 ) exhibit large Total Electron Content (TEC) values and gradients normally occurring during the afternoon and evening, as well as large TEC depletions in the post-sunset periods These depletions can be large in absolute value of TEC, while small in geographic east-west extent, and are frequently associated with the onset of plumes of irregularities that produce scintillation effects The scintillation effects associated with depletions can cause Satellite-Based Augmentation System (SBAS) ground and airborne receivers to lose lock on the GPS signal 127 of 301

Background 2 of 2 Depletions represent a potentially difficult problem for SBAS systems since they can develop in narrow regions, and therefore may not always be detectable by the ground system if the separation between the reference stations is large, especially in the east-west direction Risk mitigation techniques will therefore need to be implemented in order to insure the integrity of the SBAS broadcast information This may affect the availability and continuity of service for such systems. 128 of 301

Purpose Describe an empirical real-time algorithm for detecting depletions Calculate statistics of depletion width and depth 129 of 301

Scope 1 of 2 The algorithm, which is still preliminary, could be used in an SBAS airborne receiver and also SBAS ground system It identifies those lines of sight between SBAS receivers and GPS satellites that are affected by depletions 130 of 301 For the SBAS Ground System The location, duration, and depth of depletions can be determined in real-time The SBAS ground system could conceptually use this information to raise the error bounds at the appropriate ionospheric grid points (IGPs) in order to protect user aircraft using ionospheric pierce points (IPPs) located in grid cells affected by depletions

Scope 2 of 2 Since this algorithm is preliminary, questions on misdetection and false alarm probabilities of detecting depletions in real-time as well as operational concerns must be addressed before an operational implementation could be considered This is beyond the scope of this paper 131 of 301

MITRE s Algorithm Parameters (Ref. Conker et al.) Without a sliding window With a sliding window Depletion 132 of 301 if f '( t) γ = 0.28m/min, start depletion, 1 if currently in a depletion and 2 0 f '( t) < γ 2 = 0.2m/min and f ''( t) < γ 3 = 0.008m / min, or 2 2 ( f '( t)) ( f ''( t)) w1 w2 2 < ε1 = 0.1m / min and < ε 2 = 0.008m / min, or w1 w2 f '( t), f '( t 1),... f '( t n) cannot be calculated

Vertical TEC Data Used in the Analysis and Locations of Sites (Provided by Boston College) Two years of TEC data from 10 sites in the western part of South America is provided by Boston College January 1, 2001 to December 31, 2002 Time interval = 30 seconds 133 of 301

Summary of Results 134 of 301

Examples of Detecting A Single Depletion and Three Depletions PRN 26 at Iquitos, Peru, March 4, 2001 PRN 8 at Iquique, Chile, November 13, 2001 135 of 301

Number of Line of Sights per Station Which Have Depletions Over Two Years Number of LOSs have Depletions over 2 Years 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 Bogota Iquitos Pucallpa Ancon Cuzco Arequipa Iquique Copiapo Santiago Antuco 136 of 301

Location and Frequency of Depletions for Two Years of Data 137 of 301

Statistics of Depletion Width and Depth Over Two Years of Data Depletion Width (Minutes) Depletion Depth (meters) Depletion Depth (TECU) Mean 31.14 4.29 26.38 Standard Deviation 14.96 2.44 15.02 50 th Percentile 27.55 3.7 22.73 95 th Percentile 58.48 9.11 56.03 99 th Percentile 84.6 12.69 78.05 99.9 th Percentile 107.57 18.62 114.52 138 of 301

Vertical Ionospheric Delay (meters) PRN 6, 9, 29 on March 19, 2002 139 of 301

Example 1 Using Data from 10 Sites in the Western Side of South America, March 19, 2002 140 of 301

Example 2 Using Data from 12 Sites in Brazil on February 17, 2002 (Data Provided by INPE, Brazil and Processed by JPL) 141 of 301

Summary of Results Using this algorithm, the location, duration, and depth statistics of depletions in the western side of South America were calculated over a 2-year period (2000-2002) during the peak of the current solar cycle Recorded data from 10 sites approximately located on the same longitude was used for the analysis Preliminary results show that most depletions occur in small areas around 10 degrees North and also between 5 and 15 degrees South magnetic latitudes, which are located in the northern and southern anomalies 142 of 301 Median values for the duration and depth of the depletions have been estimated to be 27.55 minutes and 22.73 vertical TEC Units (3.70 meters of vertical delay at L1 GPS frequency), respectively

Future Work Apply similar algorithm in a single-frequency SBAS airborne receiver using code-minus-carrier (CMC) Estimate miss detection and false alarm probabilities for the ground and airborne receivers Estimate the impact of occurrence of depletions on availability of SBAS in the Equatorial Region Note: There is no guarantee of useable APV availability in South America using L1 (single frequency), even with this algorithm 143 of 301

Acknowledgements The FAA Satellite Program Office for sponsoring the work Boston College for providing the data in the western side of South America INPE, Brazil for providing the data in Brazil JPL, Pasadena, California for processing Brazilian data 144 of 301