Risk - A Drilling Contractor s Perspectives Anton Dibowitz, Vice President Marketing Paris, September 20 th 2011
The Cliff Notes The next barrels of oil are more challenging: More complex wells (deeper, HPHT, highly deviated, managed pressure) In more challenging locations (harsh environment, remote / frontier area) Under increased regulatory oversight (politically challenging areas, local content issues) After Macondo, everything has changed or has it? Changed perceptions/ attitudes towards risk Challenges to knock-for-knock indemnities Reactions and responses Managing risk QHSE focus Client base, geographic diversification, contract timing Asset integrity, personnel competence, management systems 2
3 The bigger finds are in deeper water
Deepwater brings technical challenges Challenges More remote locations Extreme pressures and temperatures Bigger wells, heavier loads Extended reach, highly deviated, longer horizontals More challenging reservoirs, more complexity 3km 324m 4
Major deepwater regions all have challenges Trend towards more complex and challenging resource plays 5
Selected deepwater finds 2011 Mauritania Sierra Leone French Guiana Tanzania Ghana Sao Tome & Principe Mozambique Democratic Republic of Congo 6 Significant finds in frontier plays
Arctic Drilling: Great Promise / Great Challenge Arctic developments to date have been in the least severe ice regimes Industry is moving to basins where water is deeper and ice environments are more severe Limited open water season creates challenges. Example Canadian Beaufort Sea Shelf (20-50m WD): 85 day season Shelf Edge (50-70m WD): 70 day season Slope (70-1200m WD): 50 day season Same season relief well (SSRW) capability (required in Canada, USA, Norway and Greenland) Alternatives to traditional relief wells will have to be found Ice flow severity by location 7
8 Access challenges
9 Infrastructure challenges
Political Instability Challenges Security concerns Protection of crews and assets Stunted development of local support, infrastructure, competence Tend to be areas of: High corruption: bureaucracy often implemented to compensate High cost: unattractive economics Contract issues War Risk, Force Majuere 10
Regulatory Challenges Access to emerging markets 11 75% of world known conventional resources are closed to international oil companies (Andy Gould, SLB) Restricted access from citizens groups and lobbyists Oil companies move further offshore, more remote, harsher environments Local Content Often high on the political agenda, regardless of practicality. Brazil: Crew, assets, pace Angola: Crew, local partners Nigeria: Asset ownership, currency Indonesia: Assets ownership China / Vietnam: NOC rig ownership Other Regulatory Issues Nigeria : Petroleum Industry Bill UK: Tax increases US GoM: Permitting process
Operators perception on risk 12
Post Macondo: Big picture Public perception of risks has changed Regulatory environment has changed If risk management has failed yet again, are there grounds for challenging the fundamental approach to risk and risk management? If management has failed yet again, are there grounds for challenging the fundamental approach being taken to management and control? Magne Ognedal, Director General PSA Operators expectations have changed Increased focus on higher specification assets Increased technical acceptance / inspection Focus on training and personnel competency Re-examination of contractual risk allocation 13
What are the operators saying? Question: How will oil services companies be exposed to risk from contracts (going forward)? Nothing has changed? 14
What are the operators doing? There has been a long standing agreement on allocation of risks between contractors and operators Risk goes with reward contractor is responsible its rig & crew, operator responsible for its well. BP / Transocean challenges this split Significant implications if indemnity provisions are negated by court Attitudes of some operators appear to already have changed Changed perception of risk? Opportunism? Regular business cycle give and take? Prudent / established contractors will just walk away Some contractor may take on liabilities they can t cover In the long run operators will end up bearing the risk anyway. 15
Post Macondo : Creating positives from tragedy The blow-out was ultimately stopped Any complacency that may have existed is gone Proactive responses from operators and contractors Increased focus / cooperation on blow-out response and capping systems US GoM: Marine Well Containment Company North Sea / Worldwide: Subsea Well Response Project 16
How are drilling contractors reacting? Numerous joint industry task forces (API, OGP) Revised IADC Guidelines (HSE Case for MODU s, DW Well Control) Redundancy (7 ram stacks, Dual BOP s) 17 Post Macondo orders favor established contractors
Evolving where we focus our QHSE efforts Source: Peter Sharpe EVP Shell, Shell Global Solutions International 18
Worldwide operations 6 units -3 Semis -2 Jack-up -1 Drillship 6 units - 2 Drillships - 2 Semi-tenders - 2 Jack-ups 10 units North America -2 Semis -1 Jack-up -1 Semi-tender Central & South America - 3 Semis - 1 Drillship - 2 Jack-ups - 2 Semis - 3 Drillships Newbuilds 14 units - 1 HE jack-ups - 4 BE jack-ups -3 Tender rigs -1 semi-tender 24 units - 2 Semis - 4 Semi-tenders - 9 Tender rigs - 8 Jack-ups 19 Worldwide operations diversifies risk
Floating Rig Availability Unit Customer 1Q 2011 2012 2013 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2014 2Q 3Q 4Q 2015 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q West Leo - Newbuild West Capricorn - Newbuild West Polaris Exxon US$560,000 US$618,000 West Navigator 1, 4 Shell US$610,000 West Aquarius Exxon US$525,000 West Auriga - Newbuild West Hercules 3 Husky US$515,000 US$495,000 US$490,000 West Vela - Newbuild West Tellus - Newbuild West Gemini Total US$445,000 US$445,000 West Alpha 1, 4 BG Consortium US$503,000 US$477,500 US$477,500 West Capella Total US$542,000 West Sirius BP US$474,000 West Phoenix 1, 4 Total US$547,000 US$445,000 West Taurus 2, 3 Petrobras US$650,000 West Eminence 2, 3 Petrobras US$618,500 West Venture 1, 4 Statoil US$440,000 07.2017 West Orion 2, 3 Petrobras US$618,500 07.2016 West Pegasus PEMEX Newbuild Transit US$465,000 08.2016 Contract Option Yard plus transit period 20 Staggered contract rollover dates spreads risk
Customer base 21 Worldwide Prime client operations base reduces diversifies risk risk
Reducing risk by Setting the Standard Asset Integrity Focus on modern high specification assets Asset management to maintain competitive cost structure with sustainable integrity Consistent worldwide management systems / performance Minimum operational standards Verification of operational change / deviations from agreed standards Technical specification and maintenance philosophies Experience and best practice transfer Personnel training and competence Attract top class talent Position specific training and competence assurance Demonstration of training, competence, and reporting 22
Setting the Standard in Drilling Being our customers' most important partner in making oil and gas available through combination of: Competence High integrity assets Consistent and effective performance Delivering wells safely, efficiently and cost-effectively 23