Institute for Climate Change and Sustainable Development, University of Malta Transport and Climate Change in London Dr Robin Hickman Bartlett School of Planning r.hickman@ucl.ac.uk
Key Issues and Questions How do we respond to the climate change problem? Application in transport: what low carbon transport futures are possible for cities? Use of scenario analysis and backcasting? What policy interventions are available? How can these be effectively packaged? Developing narratives and quantifying likely impacts does this help? What are the optimal policy trajectories can we achieve deep reductions in transport CO2 emissions? CASE STUDIES: London, Oxfordshire, Delhi, Jinan, Auckland what are the optimal policy trajectories how much does context matter?
The Context Cities have become the centres of humanity. Over the last 10 years, much concern over sustainability footprint particularly the environmental (CO2) footprint. Huge difficulties in reducing CO2 emissions from transport in all contexts in absolute terms in the developed world, and against BAU projection in the emerging cities. A small group of pioneering city leaders are signing up to progressive targets leaving the international negotiations behind. Some progressive policy measures and packages are being implemented but all, as yet, ad-hoc in nature little understanding of how approaches should differ by context, how best practice might transfer.
Main Arguments A large gap between the policy makers and the carowning public (or those aspiring to car use). Almost a hyperreality in transport: the advertising of the car as a sought after product and the aspiration to own and use a car v. the reality of the impacts in environmental, safety, urban fabric and even economic terms a mass communication, consumption and materialisation: a heavily-mediated real (Baudrillard, 1981). We draw on scenario analysis and futures thinking (from Thomas More s Utopia onwards, to Herman Kahn, Pierre Wack and Peter Schwartz..) to consider alternative possibilities at the city scale.
World Bank data, 2010, MtCO2
Scenario Analysis Helping to: make effective strategic choices in view of uncertain trends, and understand the potential for achieving a break against dominant trends.
Uncertainty Uncertainty: the driver for analysis Lack of sure knowledge of past, present, future or hypothetical events (Downs, 1957) Difference between the amount of information required to perform a task and the information possessed (Galbraith, 1977). Courtney (2001) residual uncertainty:
Leaving the Opera in the Year 2000, Albert Robida (1848-1926)
Backcasting Baseline and projection Alternative scenario(s) of the future Policy measures and packages available Appraisal, costing, optimum pathways
Backcasting The major distinguishing characteristic is: A concern, not with what futures are likely to happen, but with how desirable futures can be attained. It is thus explicitly normative, involving working backwards from a particular desirable end-point to the present in order to determine the physical suitability of that future and what policy measures would be required to reach that point. Robinson, J.B. (1990) Futures under glass: A recipe for people who hate to predict. Futures, 22(8): 820-842.
[The Difficulty with Futures Analysis] "If there is such a thing as growing human knowledge, then we cannot anticipate today what we shall know only tomorrow no scientific predictor - whether a human scientist or a calculating machine - can possibly predict, by scientific methods, its own future results." Popper, K.R. (1957) The Poverty of Historicism, Routledge and Kegan Paul: London.
VIBAT LONDON Visioning and Backcasting for London (UrbanBuzz, TfL, 2007-09)
VIBAT London Objective: a 60% reduction in CO2 emissions in the transport sector in London by 2025 and 80% by 2050 A range of policy packages Level of application Target achieved/ achievable?
London: The Baseline (Transport Only)
TC-SIM London Local Version 03 Web Version 03 tcsim.html www.vibat.org/vibat_ldn/tcsim3/tcsim.html tcsim topgear
Discuss and Optimise the Strategy
Discuss and Optimise the Strategy
Progressive Transport Planning Practice in London? CENTRAL LONDON
THE COMPACT CENTRAL AREA 150 years of investment in public transport and an effective growth boundary Alexandra Gomes
CONGESTION CHARGING
BEST PRACTICE IN PUBLIC TRANSPORT DESIGN, e.g. King s Cross St Pancras and Western Concourse
OYSTER CARD: Some progressive and innovative projects are developed to be copied around the world (and now contactless)
INNOVATIONS IN STREETSCAPE DESIGN, e.g. High Street Kensington
EXHIBITION ROAD
PUBLIC REALM AND PEDESTRIAN ENVIRONMENT, e.g. Hungerford Bridge, South Bank, Millenium Bridge
CANARY WHARF: INTEGRATED DEVELOPMENT AND TRANSPORT But the development type is not always well steered? Who gains from the public investment in transport?
THE CYCLING ENVIRONMENT? We can do much better
LOW EMISSION VEHICLES? There is no effective roll out to the mass market and no mechanism to do this
EAST LONDON?
Emerging Findings Like Truman Burbank: We accept the reality of the world with which we are presented? The Truman Show, 1998, Peter Weir
Emerging Findings www.vibat.org Ambitious strategic policy ambitions (CO2) not likely to be delivered (on current progress) lots of conjecture, little change of spending profiles? Emerging set of useful methodologies scenario analysis, backcasting, MCA might help progress the debate. Wide range of policy packages available many, if not all, require successful application to achieve ambitious CO2 reduction targets. Appraisal - not just CO2; wider MCA quality of life aspects. Moving beyond the scenarios: we need to understand potential for changed behaviours (adaptive capacity), and to invest very differently in transport infrastructure, vehicle emission technologies and behavioural change initiatives. Participatory elements critical people need to be able to choose their future travel lifestyles, ideally consistent with policy goals.
Key Reading Åkerman, J. and Höjer, M. (2006) How much transport can the climate stand? Sweden on a sustainable path in 2050. Energy Policy, 34: 1944-1957. Banister, D., Stead, D., Steen, P. Åkerman, J., Dreborg, K., Nijkamp, P.and Schleicher-Tappeser, R. (2000) European Transport Policy and Sustainable Mobility. London: Spon. Banister, D. (2008) The sustainable mobility paradigm. Transport Policy, 15(2): 73-80. Bows, A. and Anderson, K. L. (2007) Policy clash: Can projected aviation growth be reconciled with the UK Government's 60% carbon reduction policy? Transport Policy, 14(2): 103-110. Dreborg, K. H. (1996) Essence of backcasting. Futures, 28: 813-828. Gilbert, R. and Perl, A. (2010) Transport Revolutions: Moving People and Freight without Oil. London: Earthscan. Hickman, R. and Banister, D. (2014) Transport, Climate Change and the City. Abingdon, Routledge. Hickman, R. and Banister, D. (2010) Transport and climate change: simulating the options for carbon reduction in London. Transport Policy, 17(2): 110-125. Newman, P. and Kenworthy, J. R. (1999) Sustainability and Cities: Overcoming Automobile Dependence. Washington, D.C.: Island Press. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) (2000) EST! Environmentally Sustainable Transport. Futures, Strategies and Best Practice. Synthesis Report. Paris: OECD. Popper, K.R. (1957) The Poverty of Historicism, Routledge and Kegan Paul: London. Robinson, J.B. (1990) Futures under glass: A recipe for people who hate to predict. Futures, 22(8): 820-842. Schwartz, P. (1996) The Art of the Long View: Paths to Strategic Insight for Yourself and Your Company. New York: Doubleday. Sperling, D. and Gordon, D. (2009) Two Billion Cars. Driving Towards Sustainability. Oxford University Press. Stern, N. (2009) A Blueprint for a Safer Planet. London: Random House.