STEMming the tide: is the skills gap getting bigger?

STEMming the tide: is the skills gap getting bigger? Nicola Turner, MBE Head of Skills September 2017

What I will cover Universities as suppliers of skills Spotlight on STEM & Digital Skills Poor grad outcomes vs high employer demand Degree Apprenticeships how will they affect traditional UG provision?

Suppliers of skills

What are the policy influences? HE&R Act 2017 - Greater competition STEM courses are expensive to run - High cost funding TEF - Grad outcomes gaining influence on TEF results with introduction of LEO from next year, and reduction in weighting of NSS score Productivity - Skills gaps in key occupations, many in STEM. Will Brexit worsen these? Regional economies hit hard by skills shortages. Grad level and technician level skills are what the hourglass economy demands. Skills gaps create new products Degree apprenticeships (levy), T levels

Degrees create a strong economic return The transition from an elite to a mass system of higher education brings with it an expectation of a strong economic return too Jo Johnson s speech to UUK Sept 2017 20% of UK economic growth is from graduate skills accumulation (NIESR) 43.5% UK workforce has a degree Highest productivity returns from STEM graduates

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Action is needed to address current trends UK productivity lags behind other developed economies 200,000 180,000 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 Number of employees who worked fewer hours than usual because they attended a training course away from their workplace and employers are are investing investing less in less training training = Source GDP chart= ONS, International Comparisons of Productivity, 2014.

20% of productivity gap due to skills (ONS) Employer Skills Survey 2015 1:4 jobs is skills shortage vacancy By 2022, two million more jobs will require higher level skills. Vacancy analysis shows STEM shortages twice national average.

Supply and demand 316,690 first degrees awarded HESA 2016 128,000 UK grads from 2016 were in professional level jobs by January 2017 441,000 new professional level jobs established in UK

Engineering Skills horizon scanning Britain will need at least 182,000 people with engineering skills each year until 2022 (Engineering Times) Major infrastructure projects are driving demand, plus need to close existing skills gaps in new entrants and existing workforce. Automation and digitalisation is changing many occupations inside Engineering away from hammer and spanner to laptops and data analysis (Alstom) 43% of all 2016 grads are employed in industries that did not exist 50 years ago Some of the most serious skills gaps are at Masters level Surveying and Town Planning top the list 675 students did Eng masters in 2016 (not incl MEng)

Spotlight on digital skills Digital Growth -The turnover of the UK digital tech industries was estimated at 170 billion in 2015. This is a growth rate of 22% (or 30 billion) in five years. Regional clusters drew in 68% of total investment in UK digital tech strengths in Edinburgh, Cambridge, Bristol & Bath, Oxford, Manchester, Sheffield GVA of tech worker is 2X higher than non-tech ( 103k: 50k) There are now 1.64 million digital tech jobs in the UK, and the digital sector is creating jobs 2X as fast than the non-digital sector. UK needs 1.2 million more skilled tech workers by 2022 Sources: Tech City Report 2016 and Digital skills for the UK Economy January 2016

Sources: Tech City Report 2016 & Forging Futures Report 2014; Tech Partnership Fact Sheet 2016; Digital skills for the UK Economy January 2016; OECD Skills for a Digital World 2016 Shortage of digital skills is a problem beyond digital sector There are now 1.64 million digital tech jobs in the UK, and the digital sector is creating jobs 2X as fast than the non-digital sector. UK needs 1.2 million more skilled tech workers by 2022 93% of tech companies experienced a skills shortage which affected their business in 2016. Costing UK 63bn a year in lost GDP. Urgent skills needs today include cyber security, big data, cloud computing. Tomorrow s skills? Automation, globalisation, new technologies Pressing need for digital skills beyond just the digital and tech sector

Industrial Strategy STEM skills barriers and shortages Problems start in schools (gender, maths, careers info, inspiring science e.g. practical work) Currently 14,000 teachers short UGs specialising too early in degree - flex and breadth not valued, module selection can be limited More inter-disciplinary options needed to meet employer skills gaps and future needs Shortage of technicians at sub degree level

Key challenges: Graduate unemployment by subject Source: HEFCE http://blog.hefce.ac.uk/author/professor-sir-nigel-shadbolt/

Evidence base Independent Shadbolt & Wakeham Reviews 2016 confirm cross cutting issues for graduate employability, many of which are well-known, but persist because they are not being solved Employers are looking for work-ready graduates Work experience is invaluable Industry is changing at a rapid rate. This presents a dilemma for universities and colleges if they try to keep up with industry demands. Graduates need to upskill and adapt to a changing jobs market. Their degree will only get them so far in a career that may span 50 years. Greater collaboration between industry and higher education will help

Government Strategy T Levels Technical Education Act Institutes of Technology Industrial Strategy - Green Paper Strategy National Colleges 15 Routes (Sainsbury) Apprenticeship

Degree Apprenticeships 88 of 130 Unis in England are delivering Degree Apprenticeships Grad occupations with the worst skills shortages are a close match for the first 19 Degree Apprenticeships on the market E.g. Construction, Engineering, Digital and Technology Degree Apprenticeships Digital and Technology Solutions second most popular with employers and apprentices in 2016

Aston University: case study https://vimeo.com/tinkertaylor/review/220032435/6fe68c9083

Degree Apprenticeships ready for delivery Sector Apprenticeship standard Level Aerospace Aerospace Engineer, Aerospace Software Development Engineer 6 Automotive Control /Technical Support Engineer, Electrical /Electronic Technical Support Engineer, Manufacturing Engineer, Product Design and Development Engineer Building and Construction Construction Site Management*, Management Quantity Surveying and Commercial Management* 6 Conveyancing and probate Licensed Conveyancer 6 Defence Systems Engineering Masters Level 7 Digital Industries Digital and Technology Solutions Professional 6 Electronic Systems Embedded Electronic Systems Design and Development Engineer 6 Energy and Utilities Power Engineer 7 Financial Services Relationship Manager (Banking), Senior Compliance / Risk Specialist 6 Law Chartered Legal Executive 6 Law Solicitor 7 Leadership & Management Chartered Manager Degree Apprenticeship 6 Media and Communication Broadcast Technology* 6 Nuclear Nuclear Scientist and Nuclear Engineer 6 Surveying Chartered Surveyor 6 TV Production & Broadcasting Outside Broadcasting Engineer 7 Note: only those Apprenticeships with a Standard, or a Framework, that clearly states the attainment of a Degree are listed above. Frameworks are indicated with an asterisk. 6

AGR Demand Survey Q7. Which of the following degree apprenticeships that are approved for delivery are you offering or do you plan to offer? Q117. In which of the following sectors is the degree apprenticeship(s) you are planning on delivering? Digital and Technology Chartered Manager Degree Solicitor Chartered Surveyor Electrical/ Electronic Systems Engineering Relationship Manager Aerospace Engineer Manufacturing Engineer Product Design and Senior Compliance/ Risk Chartered Legal Executive Aerospace Software Embedded Electronic Nuclear Scientist and 15.6% 15.6% 8.9% 6.7% 6.7% 4.4% 4.4% 4.4% 4.4% 4.4% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 28.9% 40.0% Digital industries and IT Construction Financial services, banking Sales and marketing Legal services Public sector Fashion and tailoring Science and research Environmental health and Housing and property Base = 45 11.1% 11.1% 8.9% 8.9% 6.7% 6.7% 6.7% 4.4% 4.4% 4.4% 4.4% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 26.7% 24.4% 24.4% 22.2% 20.0%

What I have covered Universities as suppliers of skills Spotlight on STEM & Digital Skills Poor grad outcomes vs high employer demand Degree Apprenticeships how will they affect traditional UG provision?

HEFCE support for STEM skills Funding 2016-17 High cost subjects 672m Very high cost 24m STEM Teaching Capital 200m 2015-16 73 HEIs +FECs Evidence Base Wakeham Review into employability of STEM graduates Shadbolt review - Computer Science employability National initiatives and programmes Sigma maths and stats support CETL Engineering Conversion Courses - 1.7m 1500 grads Institute of Coding 20m Degree Apprenticeships 8.5m Development Fund HEIs and FECs using fund to develop infrastructure, map curricula, employer engagement

Walking in your shoes tell me what you think Is it ok that Universities are seen as suppliers of skills? Are STEM grads really turning their backs on STEM careers? How much should employers influence education? Should Engineering departments be concerned about grad outcomes? Degree Apprenticeships what kind of students will thrive on this kind of path?

Thank you for listening Any questions? n.turner@hefce.ac.uk @NicTurner2013