National Honor Society Ah, memories... Congratulations! Let me congratulate you on the distinguished record that has led to this recognition... As I usually say each year to entering freshman at the University, the good news is that you are probably part of the academically strongest class in your schools history...the bad news is that next year's class will be even better... You cannot slow down! Just out of curiosity's sake: How many of you are planning on careers in science or engineering? How many in a profession like medicine or law? How many undecided? I'm interested because of another hat I wear... National Science Board Education and Human Resources Committee... Serious concern: America is losing out in the "brain" race... Let me explain... When I graduated from college... Space race with the Russians... First to the moon... Some were even looking beyond... Rover Project: nuclear rockets for Mars mission We fully expected to have a base on Mars by this time! What happened? America became disenchanted with science and technology... Maybe the war in Vietnam... Maybe the concern about the environment... The best of our students stopped going into science... Despite the fact that so many of you say you will go on... only about 3% of you will major in science or engineering! (Compared to 50% in most other nations...) But something even more serious happened... We seemed to forget for a time about the importance of quality...of excellence...in what we did. Example: When I was Dean, a GM executive... Claimed that Japanese would never beat us...
We could put a car on the showroom floor... Only problem was that people don't by cars by the pound... They buy junk by the pound! At a time when the rest of the world was picking up the pace... America was sitting back and resting on its laurels... We stopped demanding the best...in our schools...in our industry...in our achievements... The Challenge of Transition Important transition: Agriculture --> Industrial --> Knowledge-based economy Intellectual capital -- brain-power Today: strong signs that technology is in vogue again Economic competitiveness National Security The Information Age EXAMPLE 1: Demand for engineers and scientists Through good times and bad, mobs of recruiters still crowd our placement center. 80% of all job interviews at UM for engineers Starting salaries: $30 K + Many offers for each graduate All national studies indicate shortage of engineers EXAMPLE 2: Demand for admission to engineering programs For past decade, student interest has grown steadily At UM we are forced to limit admissions EXAMPLE 3: Reawakening of public interest in science New magazines and TV programs -- "golly-gee-whiz-bang" style of science Media attention to areas like robotics, computers NYT article John Naisbett Impact of personal computer -- telecommunications Even the counterculture types of the 60s have now traded in organic gardening of lettuce for Apples -- rather, Macintoshes! But, if we look beneath the hype, we see danger signs!! Clouds on the Horizon WARNING SIGN 1: America is slipping No question that US has lost lead in many areas Industrial productivity and heavy manufacturing
Steel, autos,... Energy (particularly nuclear) Electronics Also serious signs that lead is slipping rapidly in Computers Aerospace WARNING SIGN 2: S&E Manpower Shortage US faces a S&E manpower crisis of unprecedented proportions Some examples: Per capita production of US engineers lowest among industrialized nations: US: 72,000 (3%) Japan: 85,000 (21%) USSR: 300,000 (35%) President of Sony: "In US you produce 4 lawyers for every engineer. In Japan, we graduate 4 engineers for every lawyer!" But things are going to get MUCH rougher: NSF Study Demand for S&E likely to go up Population is growing S&E share of workforce is growing Industry is becoming more scientific Most experts predict growth in S&E jobs Supply will probably fall off dramatically Traditional source of S&E college students is declining 25%-30% falloff in HS graduates by 1992 Assuming that same fraction (4.8%) choose to enter S&E, and assuming constant demand (very conservative), there will be a cumulative shortfall of 700,000 by 2010! WARNING SIGN 3: THE IMPACT OF TECHNOLOGY We really haven't appreciated impact of technology. Example: Technology doubles every 5 years in some fields! Graduates are obsolete by the time they graduate! Graduates must factor change into their career objectives. Change is a permanent feature of our environment However now employees will have to change areas frequently. Indeed, on the average, every 3 years.
Continuing education will be an absolute necessity. Example: IMPACT OF THE COMPUTER Computer is a "lever" for the mind Now improves both the productivity and intellectual span CAD, CAM, CIM, CEP --> CAE Obvious implications Integrate ("saturate") curriculum Take advantage of enhanced productivity Unlease student's creativity Not so obvious, but more profound implications Computer has changed engineering practice No longer: design-analysis-production-manufacturing... Now one engineer spans all Hence we demand a generalist -- not a specialist Computer has provided powerful analysis tools Instead, can explore many designs -- let computer do dog work Reemphasizes creativity over analysis -- science back to art Right to left side of brain Example: "Creation station" WARNING SIGN 4: Technological Illiteracy Claim: We are rapidly becoming a nation of illiterates... in science and technology, no longer able to comprehend or cope with the technology that is governing our lives. Public's knowledge and understanding of science has not kept pace with technology Some examples: How many of you recognize the follow terms expert systems, polymeric composites, lattice guage theory, recursive procedures, CAE, CIP, FMS, CCC,... Modern tools of professional CAD, CAM, CAE Modern workstations Expert Systems and Knowledge Engineering Examine education system: Incredible that students can graduate from high school without a solid education in science & math -- or can complete college without such coursework.
80% of hs graduates --> 1 course in physical science Another example: K-12 education in physics In US, one year for a few... In Europe, teaching of physics as a separate subject begins as early as 6th grade (also in USSR) Student planning on majoring in physics will have had 6 years -- more than 500 class hours Non-science major will have had 3 years Face it, gang: We are condemning an entire generation to a lifelong estrangement from the very technology that will inevitably govern their lives. Already see danger signs: misunderstanding of science Pop or psuedo-science: astrology, health fads, parapsychology Nonsense surrounding nuclear power, genetic engineering, hazardous waste disposal, smoking Possible Responses Need for a reawakening of interest Background National leadership Slipping behind Why are we losing leadership Have our colleges and universities lost the ability to provide the quality of education in science and technology necessary for world leadership? I think not. The enormous number of foreign students attending American universities from those very nations that are passing us in science and technology give evidence to this. Perhaps it is due to short-sighted government policies. To be sure, the federal government seems to have lost it enthusiasm for the support of science and technology, while this state has certainly lost its capacity to support higher education -- at least at the level that built distiniguished universities such as Michigan. But this still doesn't explain the situation. Key Factor Rather I would suggest a more fundamental factor. I believe that for the past decade or more the best of our students have bypassed careers in science (or perhaps have been persuaded to pbypass these careers) in favor of other professions such as business, law, medicine, and so on.
The simple fact of the matter is that unlike the 1950s when the best of our students chose careers in science and engineering, over the past decade few have done so. But, whatever the reason, it is certainly true that this nation needs a reawakening of interest in science and engineering among our best students. Now there is a real challenge for you! Because if our nation is to get its act together again, it will be because students like you demand it! If our schools are ever to improve, it will be because you simply will demand the best of your teachers! If we are to regain our scientific leadership, it will be because many of you make the commitment to seek the rigous education required of scientists and engineers. Wouldn't it be great if many of you decided that you simply were not going to stand for mediocrity! That you were going to go for the gold...for the best in the achievements of your schools, your teachers, your friends, you nation! Ah, well, don't let me lay too much on you!!!