UK UPSTREAM OIL & GAS SECTOR REPORT 2012/13 Executive Summary and Table of Contents Focused, cutting edge information on the UK Upstream oil and gas industry. Providing detailed and robust analysis of the offshore oil & gas sector and its major supply chains, the UK Upstream 2012/13 report contains over 100 pages of critical analysis with over 80 graphs and tables, designed to enable confident decision-making and give your organisation the insight to succeed on the UKCS. The report is supplied with a detachable A0 size, high quality map that illustrates offshore blocks, key projects and other energy infrastructure on the UKCS. Price: 650 plus VAT for Members ( 1,250 plus VAT for non-members) For further information contact: Dr Phil Goddard, Director of Consultancy Tel: +44 (0)207 091 8612 email: phil.goddard@the-eic.com
Executive Summary Overview While buoyant Brent prices have mitigated the impact of fiscal instability and tax increases on the UKCS since 2010, this effect cannot be relied upon forever given the notoriously unstable nature of oil prices. Fortunately changes to allowances and new decommissioning proposals will drive more exploration and create more opportunities for independent and major companies to increase their presence on the UKCS. A record breaking 27th licensing round in the final quarter of 2012 and a positive forecast for Brent oil prices, provide the foundaions for a resurgence in upstream acivity on the UKCS. Supply Chain Activity There are three main reasons why independent operators activity on the UKCS is increasing, the maturity of assets, the economics of $100 Brent Crude and liquidity in the asset swap market. Between 2007 and 2012 over 140 companies are identified as having been awarded one of 365 major contracts. It is widely anticipated that Southeast Asian companies will take a larger slice of the UKCS project spend in the future as they become more knowledgeable of the bidding process and their competition. The report uses proprietary contract statistics to illustrate the dominant tier 1 contractors and the dynamics of the supply chain on the UKCS. A focus on independents and an indication of contract award success for the top ten largest contractors on the UKCS, across the full spectrum of upstream contracts from 2007 to 2012 is featured. Focused analysis of the most active players in the UKCS supply chain, Technip, Subsea 7 and Aker solutions is also provided. Investment and Fiscal Environment Annual oil and gas investment on the UKCS excluding development costs increased from 6 billion in 2010, to 8.5 billion in 2011. New field allowances and government proposals to provide greater certainty on decommissioning tax relief, as well as a period of sustained high oil prices, have boosted oil and gas investment in 2012. Higher capital expenditure, committed and planned will have a long-term impact on projections for future project realisation. Despite positive investment trends and a healthy project forecast, capital efficiency on the UKCS has been steadily decreasing. Unit operating costs for oil have increased dramatically since 2005, rising from 3.50/bbl, to 11.10/bbl in 2012. The report includes an investment forecast for major sectors of the Upstream offshore industry on the UKCS from 2012-2017. The investment focus of major operators are described alongside an overview of the current tax regime encompassing the changes made in budget 2011. The impacts of new field allowances and the UK Governments latest decommissioning tax relief proposals on the UKCS projects outlook are fully evaluated. Oil Prices Current trends in oil prices provide a strong indication that a fundamental shift in the base price of oil has taken place over the last five years. This change is attributable to a range of geopolitical and financial factors which have influenced global supply and demand dynamics. Sluggish economic growth and the Eurozone crisis has restricted further increases in Brent prices during 2012, Brent prices averaged $108.5/bbl in the second quarter of 2012, down 8% on the previous quarter. The report provides integrated analysis of oil and gas price movements and a five year pricing forecast exmining the fundmental drivers of oil prices and how they are likely to affect investment descisions on the UKCS in the short term. EIC Consult - UK Upstream Energy Report 2012/13
Project Opportunities A total of 80% of the projects which received approval from DECC in 2012 have a subsea element in the Field Development Plan.A total of 26 projects, both offshore and onshore, were approved by DECC in 2012, 24 offshore projects and two onshore projects, located in the North Sea, Irish Sea and West of Shetlands areas. Projects eligible for the extension of the small field allowance, the new deepwater West of Shetland, shallow water gas field and brownfield allowances are detailed. A UK Upstream offshore projects index features comprehensive tables which provide key details on over 178 active and planned projects on the UKCS, worth a total of $95 billion of investment. The report also provides an overview of subsea prospects and project activity on the UKCS. Reserves, Exploration and Production Around 50% of UKCS undiscovered resources are predicted to be in the Central North Sea, with 21% in the West of Shetland area. Drilling activity in the UK during the first three quarters of 2012 has exceed the same period as 2011 and is just 6% off the total number of wells drilled in 2011. The number of exploratory wells that will be drilled in 2012 is expected to comfortably exceed the number drilled in 2011. The report contains key information on the UK s remaining oil and gas reserves for each area of the UKCS. Oil and gas production trends and forecasts through to 2016 are featured. Exploration, appraisal and development drilling trends are included and a full breakdown of awards in the 27th licensing round by operator and type of license is provided. Rig Market The UK North Sea rig market is tight into 2013. Despite standard units providing the backbone of the UK s semi-submersible fleet with few high-spec rigs, overall North Sea semi-submersible utilisation has already reached 89% for 2013 and 68% in 2014. It is likely that day rates will continue to climb as a result. Based on existing UK North Sea contracts, semi-submersible day rates for rigs capable of drilling in depths of 1,500 metres or above are expected to climb 19% over a two year period from October 2012, to an average of $306,000 in Q3 2014. The report features a detailed forecast for day rates for semi-submersible and jack up rigs on the UKCS, including an appendix with day rates,contract lengths, location and operator of every rig currently active on the UKCS. Trends in UKCS rig activity and utilisation on the UKCS are analysed and a comprehensive breakdown of the different types of rigs contracted by active operators on the UKCS is provided. Existing Infrastructure and Decommissioning The UKCS is currently home to over 600 offshore installations including 280 platforms, 340 subsea installations, 15 FPSOs and over 15,000km of pipelines. The main platform operators in the UKCS are also the main operators using subsea installations. There are currently 28 different operators of platforms and 39 different operators of subsea installations and the majority of infrastructure is owned and operated by a few major oil companies. However, as field production deteriorates there is expected to be an increase in independents operating infrastructure on the UKCS, as highlighted by Perenco s acquisition of some of BP s infrastructure in the SNS. To date only 7% of the infrastructure on the UKCS has been decommissioned. In 2011, cessation of production (COP) predictions for 24 fields in the UKCS were amended by five years or more against the figure for the same fields in 2010, with 18 extended. Such an environment could potentially delay decommissioning by 10-15 years in many infrastructure systems. The report charts infrastructure installation on the UKCS focusing on subsea and platform developments. FPSO s active on the UKCS are listed alongside platform operators for every sea on the UKCS. An informed outlook for decommissioning opportunities and the timescale the sector is likely to follow are included.
An indicative contents and list of tables and graphs featured in the report is displayed below. Please note that the contents are subject to change and EIC Consult reserves the right to alter this information. Contents Exploration Reserves and Production UK Oil Reserves and Production UK Natural Gas Reserves and Production Production Forecast Exploration and Appraisal Activity Drilling Activity Discoveries and Drilling Success Licences The 27th Seaward Licensing Round Outlook Investment and Fiscal Environment Current Investment Projects and Investment Forecast Operating Costs on the UKCS Oil and Gas Prices Oil Price Forecast Impact on North Sea Activity UK Tax and Fiscal Environment Tax Fiscal Instability on the UKCS Decommissioning Tax Relief Proposals July 2012 The Decommissioning Relief Deed Field Allowances Outlook Projects and Opportunity Field Allowances Projects Subsea Field Approvals in 2012 Projects Index Supply Chain Activity Impact of Independents on the Supply Chain Independents in the 27th Licencing Round Analyses and Comment The Major Supply Chain Players Technip Subsea 7 Aker Solutions Analysis of Contractor Activity in Large UKCS Projects Southeast Asian Contractors Fast-Tracking Rig Market Day Rates on the UKC Rig Contracts and Market Outlook Existing infrastructure and Decommissioning Existing Infrastructure FPSOs Pipelines Decommissioning UK Guidelines and Obligations Decommissioning Timing Decommissioning Opportunities Appendix Active Rigs on the UKCS: Index and Key Stats Tables Graphs and Figures Graphs 1. Oil Proved Reserves and Production 1980-2011 2. Oil Production and Crude Oil Prices 1965-2011 3. Natural Gas Proven Reserves and Production 1980 2011 4. UKCS Oil Production Forecast 2012-2017 5. Gas Production Forecast 2012-2017 6. Estimates of Undiscovered Recoverable Oil Resources on the UKCS as at end 2011 by Geological Area 7. Estimates of Undiscovered Recoverable Gas Resources on the UKCS as at end 2011 by Geological Area. 8. UK Offshore Exploration Drilling 2000-2012 9. Offshore Appraisal Drilling 10. Offshore Development Drilling 11. Exploration and Significant Discovery Wells 12. Drilling Success Ratio 13. Total Number of Blocks Applied for, Awarded, Applications and Licences Awarded 14. 27th Licensing Round Awards 15. Expenditure on the UKCS 2008-2012 16. Operator Capital Expenditure Start Up Years 2013-2017 17. Upstream Project Sector Value Forecast 2013-2017 18. Upstream Projects Forecast 2013-2017 EIC Consult - UK Upstream Energy Report 2012/13
19. Operating costs on the UKCS per Boe 2012-2017 20. International Oil Prices and Production Costs in the North Sea 21. Brent and WTI Oil Prices 1990-2012 22. Global Natural Gas Prices 23. Quarterly Global Oil Demand Growth 2011-2012 24. Oil Demand Growth 2011 25. Non-OECD and EU Oil Consumption 2000-2011 26. Global Oil Production and Consumption 2000-2012 27. Global GDP Forecasts 28. OPEC Oil Producers Average Spot prices 2011 and 2012 Breakeven Oil Prices 29. Oil Price Forecast 2012-2017 30. Dollar and Pound Exchange Rates 2007-2012 31. UKCS Oil and Gas Tax Revenue 2000-2011. 32. Capital Expenditure on the UKCS 2002-2012. 33. Estimated Tax Gains following Decommissioning Certainty. 34. Subsea Projects on the UKCS 35. Project Stage of UKCS Subsea Developments 36. Subsea Projects on the UKCS by Field Type 37. UK Offshore and Onshore Approvals 2012 38. Offshore Oil, Condensate and Gas Field Approval 39. Offshore Oil, Condensate and Gas Incremental Field Approval 40. Upstream Project Value on the UKCS 41. Number of Upstream Projects on the UKCS by Type 42. Independent Projects on the UKCS 43. Independents Activity in the 27th Licensing Round 44. Breakdown of Major Contract Types in the UK Upstream Sector (2007 to 2012) 45. Distribution of Major Awards by Contractor in the UK Upstream Sector 2007-2012 46. Breakdown of SURF/Pipeline Major Awards by Contractor in the UK Upstream Sector 2007-2012 47. Breakdown of EPC Awards by Contractor in the UK Upstream Sector 2007-2012 48. Breakdown of O&M/Term Awards by Contractor in the UK Upstream Sector (2007 to 2012) 49. Award Success Spectrum for the top 10 Contractors in the UK Upstream Sector (2007 to 2012) 50. Contractor Success Ratio in Large UKCS Projects (minimum of three known bids) 51. Rig Contracted Months for Semi-submersible and Jack-up Rigs in the UK North Sea 52. Day Rates for Semi-submersible and Jack-up Rigs in the UK North Sea 53. UK North Sea Contracted Rig Day Rates Forecast October 2012 October 2014 54. Operator Contracted Months by Rig Type in the UK North Sea 55. Total Platforms by Area on the UKCS 56. Installation Dates of Platforms & Subsea Infrastructure Currently in Situ 57. Type of Platform and Installation Dates 58. Platform & Subsea Installations Currently in Place with Associated Hydrocarbon Type 59. Top 10 Subsea Operators on the UKCS 60. Top 10 Pipeline Operators on the UKCS Tables 1. Oil and Gas Proven and Probable Reserve Locations 2. UKCS Licence Types 3. Brownfield Allowance Qualifying Fields 4. Small Field Allowance Qualifying Fields 5. Deepwater West of Shetland Allowance Qualifying Fields 6. Shallow Water Gas Qualifying Fields 7. Offshore Oil Fields Approved 2012 8. Offshore Gas Fields Approved 2012 9. Offshore Condensate fields approved 10. Redevelopment Projects on the UKCS 11. Enhanced Recovery Projects on the UKCS 12. Decommissioning Projects on the UKCS 13. Exploration projects in the UK 14. Field Development Projects 15. Recent Technip Upstream Contract Awards in the UK North Sea (with values where known). 16. Recent Subsea 7 Upstream Contract Awards in the UK North Sea (with values where known) 17. Recent Aker Solutions Acquisitions 18. Fields which entered Production in 2011/2012 19. Platform Types Used on the UKCS 20. UKCS Platform Operators by Region 21. FPSO s Operating in the UKCS 22. Decommissioning Projects and Activity Figures 1. UK North Sea operating rig contract timetable from October 2012.