Changing Lanes: Identifying the Future of Airport Ground Access ACI NA Winter Board & CEO Forum Presented by Jim Jarvis, Ricondo Associates Prepared by Craig Leiner February 4 th, 2016 Orlando, Florida
Identify the future that has already happened - Peter F. Drucker
Discussion Outline Perspective before Precision Trends and Patterns Preparing for the Future
How much has happened in these 50 years a period more remarkable than any, I will continue to say, in the annals of mankind. -Benjamin Disraeli, 1873
1900 1950 1960 2016
1961
Navigating the next revolution Revolution Year Advances 1 1784 Steam, bifocals, mechanical production equipment, photosynthesis, chronometer 2 1870 Division of labor, electricity, mass production, aspirin, periodic table, telephone 3 1969 Electronics, IT, automated production, graphical user interface? 4 Cyber-physical systems, shared economy, robotics Adapted from: World Economic Forum, Davos 2016
Who s driving you now?
Does your car have any idea why my car pulled it over?
Discussion Outline Perspective before Precision Trends and Patterns Demographic Technology Preparing for the Future
The Demographics of Travel Generations: Millennials, Boomers The Graying of North America
Millennials Multi-taskers Connected Tech savvy Work-life alignment Less than 70 percent of 16- to 24-year-olds have a driver s license Boomers Love working Forever young Tech savvy More than 25% are on a diet
The Business Traveler Category Sky Warrior Self-Emp. Avg. Business Joe/Jane Cost-Cautious Global Go-Getter The Millennial Overlay Attributes Loyalty program 34% 6 trips/year Productivity 23% 5.5 trips/year Fare-sensitive 21% 5 trips/year Low fees/low fares 14% 4 trips/year Elite status, lounges 8% 5 trips/year Second highest number of international trips; more diverse; book closer to trip; frequent changes 5 trips/year
Millennial Spending on Business Flights To Grow 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 45 Silent Baby Boomer 50% 40% 30% 20% 35 46 54 49 Gen X Millennial igen Other 10% 0% 2013 2020 2025 2030 2035
The Graying of North America In 2025 there will be 70 million beneficiaries of Social Security and Medicare, about 60 percent more than in 2007 Getting policies right for the aging population: Physical, sensory, cognitive challenges Accommodations for service animals Irregular operations Baggage Wayfinding
100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 Number of person 65+ 1900 to 2060 (millions) 25 45 98 10 0 3 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060
Canadians in Context By 2050 one in four expected to be 65 or over 30 25 25% 20 15 10 5 0 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 Source: Statistics Canada
11 Technologies to Transform Transportation Robotics and automation Automated vehicles On-demand ride services (TNCs) Advanced analytics and machine learning Hyperloop Innovative concepts for protecting peds, and bicyclists The Internet of Things Additive manufacturing (3D printing) Materials science in infrastructure Unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) Wireless power transfer Adapted from Volpe Center, Cambridge, MA
Robotics ABB Aeroenvironment Cognex Deere Google GM Krones Lincoln Elec. Mitsubishi Northrup Rockwell Siemens Toshiba
Automation Probability of automation by occupation Skilled trades Caring Leisure Service Managers Directors Professionals Decreasing median pay
The State of Global Youth Unemployment
I ll pause for a moment so you can let this information sink in.
Discussion Outline Perspective before Precision Trends and Patterns Preparing for the Future
Identify the future that has already happened Exploit changes that have already occurred and use them as opportunities Develop a method for perceiving and analyzing these changes Look systematically at changes in society, demographics, science and technology - Peter F. Drucker
"You have to learn the rules of the game and then you have to play better than anyone else."
To learn the rules of the game create your own innovation lab A diversified work group, crossing disciplines, departments, generations, and ethnicities to perceive and analyze changes Invest in accurate and reliable data and analytics Air passenger surveys Market research ACI ASQ
Have your work group consider facilities, operations, regulations, technology Parking Garages Taxi and Limo Pools Rental Car Centers Curb Management Vehicle/Ped Interactions Airport Regulations Insurance Liability Privacy Cyber security
Resources Newsletters Priceonomics blog Wired Magazine Government Technology Benedict s Weekly (mobile computing) Web sites Santa Fe Institute http://samoa.santafe.edu/ And books Innovation and Entrepreneurship - Peter Drucker Where Good Ideas Come From - Steve Johnson Creative Intelligence - Bruce Nussbaum Capitalism, Socialism, and Democracy - Joseph Schumpeter
The characteristic of the innovator is the ability to envisage as a system what to others are unrelated, separate elements. Thank you