POPULATION PROJECTIONS FOR DIVISIONS AND DISTRICTS OF BIHAR

POPULATION PROJECTIONS FOR DIVISIONS AND DISTRICTS OF BIHAR 2006-2026 PANKAJ SINHA AND KAUSHLENDRA KUMAR Introduction While India is the second most populous country in the world, Bihar is the 3rd most populous state of India. According to 2001 Census the population of Bihar has been enumerated to be approximately 83 million (47 million males and 36 million females). For the purpose of administration Bihar has been divided into 9 Divisions and 37 districts. Bihar is a predominantly agricultural state with 70 percent of its population residing in rural areas. The state, however, has only 2.8 percent of India s total land area, and thus has a density of 880 persons per square km. Considering only population size, 13 countries including India as a whole, have populations larger than that of Bihar. Bihar is really a population giant and what is happening to the population of this state has a significant impact on not only the population of the country but also on global population. The importance to have a demographic study at the district level, has been growing because, in planning for the country s economic development planner, the programme administrator tries to build its programme for smaller areas like divisions or districts. Each of these areas may have its own special characteristics regarding the availability of natural resources, climatic and geographic conditions to population growth. In fact, the problems in each area or at least in some of them may be different and require separate consideration. Moreover, a regional plan permits more easily an identification of national goals in terms of local action. Population projections for the country as a whole as well as for the states have been worked by the Expert Committee. But no official projections are available at the district level. Pankaj Sinha, Statistical Investigator Grade I, Directorate of Census Operations, Bihar, Patna, Kaushlendra Kumar, Assistant Professor, Department of Extra Mural Studies And Distance Education, International Institute for Population Sciences, Mumbai - 400 088. 54 The Journal of Family Welfare

Population projection for smaller areas or districts are needed for planning in several of the social and economic development programmes such as schools, food, water supply, hospitals, housing, transport and roads, communication, power, recreational space and amenities etc. Therefore, the present study has been carried out to provide estimates of future population at division and district levels in Bihar. In the present study an attempt has been made to project population by sex and place of residence for the period 2006-2026 using the well-known Ratio Method utilizing the future estimates of population of Bihar as given by the Expert Committee on Population Projection. 1 Methodology Sources of data The following data sources have been used for the present study: 1) 1991 and 2001 Censuses of Bihar, (Table 1) 2) Expert Committee Population Projection for India and States 2001-2026, 3) Sample Registration System Reports for the years 1981, 1991 and 2001, and 4) District Census Handbooks of 1991, and 2001 of different districts of Bihar. 2 TABLE 1 Basic demographic indicators of Bihar for the period 1981-2001 Indicators 1981 1991 2001 CBR (Crude Birth Rate)* 39.1 30.7 31.2 CDR (Crude Death Rate )* 13.9 9.8 8.2 IMR (Infant Mortality Rate)* 117.8 69 61 TFR (Total Fertility Rate)** 5.7 4.4 4.3 Sex Ratio** 946 907 919 Expectancy of Life at Birth* Male 54.2 60.6 65.6 Female 51.5 58.1 62.1 Age-Group* 0-14 41.04 40.6 39.1 15-59 53.42 53.6 54.5 60+ 5.54 5.8 6.4 Indicators 1981 1991 2001 Urban 0-14 39.15 38.7 34.1 15-59 56.93 56.9 59.9 60+ 3.92 4.4 6 Rural 0-14 41.27 40.8 39.7 15-59 52.99 53.2 53.8 60+ 5.74 6.0 6.5 * Based on SRS Reports of 1981, 1991, 2001, respectively ** Bbased on Census Reports of 1981, 1991, 2001, respectively The following were assumptions made: (a) Population change in the divisions and districts are in the same direction; and (b) The ratio of the population of a district to population of the corresponding division observed in the latest decade will change linearly and continue in the next subsequent five years. Reconstitution of Districts The districts are reconstituted on the basis of jurisdiction finalized in 2001 census. For example Patna district had 28 Blocks in the 1971 Census. But in 1981 Census it breaks up in two districts namely Patna and Nalanda, respectively, having 16 and 12 C.D. Blocks. The villages which are the part of those 12 C.D. Blocks of the new district Nalanda created during 1981 census are identified and the population of these villages as per jurisdiction finalized in 2001 Census have been added to make the total population of the Blocks in 1971, 1981, 1991 and 2001 Census, respectively. To further clarify, suppose one Block of the newly created district Nalanda is composed of 57 villages in 2001 Census. Only those 57 villages are identified and their populations in 1971, 1981, 1991, and 2001 census is obtained through District Census Handbook (DCH) and added to get the exact population of the particular Block in different Censuses. Vol. 55, No. 2, December 2009 55

Techniques of Projection Population projection can be done by any one of the several methods depending upon the wide variety of local situation represented and the difference in the type of data available. For the sake of convenience, the methods can be classified into three broad categories: (A) Mathematical Method (B) Component Method (C) Miscellaneous Methods like Ratio Method, Urban Rural Growth Difference Method etc. In general, the Component Method is more logical and Bihar state population projection (2001-2026) has been worked out using this method by the Expert Committee. But in view of the wide variations in the growth rate of smaller areas like districts, this method is not preferred. The problem of small area projection differs from national projections because of the role of migration. The mobility of the population within the national borders is less restricted than across the borders. The contribution of internal migration to population growth is much larger for small areas such as districts than for the state as a whole. A similar situation prevails when we compare movement of people within a state and outside. The former is subject to greater error than the latter. Moreover, in the case of internal migration, even the Census data do not show the time of movements, the intermediate movements etc, of the people and the data are defective for many reasons. As the failure to take account for migration with non-availability of reliable and appropriate data would lead to totally unrealistic results, the Component Method could not be adopted. The Ratio Method which is comparatively better in such circumstances has been used. Ratio Method Ratio Method is one of the most commonly used methods for making projections for small area because it makes no demand individually on the vital statistics, such as birth rates and death rates or migration rates which are normally inadequate in most developing countries. The method was originally developed by Hagood and Seigel 3 who applied this method for projecting the population of regions of the United States. Ratio Method depends heavily on the regularity of past trends and is logical as the estimate of population obtained are correlated with estimates of future population of the state. Thus, it takes into account, to some extent, the factors of growth viz. fertility, mortality, and migration. Further, it can also be applied to estimate population by sex. The Ratio Method does not by itself provide population projections. Its function is solely to provide sets of ratios which when multiplied by a given projection, indicate the population in the constituent parts of the area. This method involves the calculation of ratio of the local area population to that of a larger area and the study of the trend of these ratios over time for projecting them into the future. The projected ratios are applied to the population projections available for the larger area to get total projected population of the sub-area. For example, let P t be the total population of a country at time t and P i t be the total population of ith area (state, District).The Ratio R i t is defined as follows 4 : R i t = P i t / P t The method used here for projecting total population of each division and district of Bihar from 2006 to 2026 is the Ratio Method. The Ratio Method specifically assumes the availability of a population projection of Bihar as available in the Expert Committee Projection for the period 2001-2026. 56 The Journal of Family Welfare

The procedure adopted is as follows: First, the ratio of population (Ri) of each division to the total population of the state and the ratio of each district to the total population of its division have been computed for Census from 1991 to 2001 (Table 3). TABLE 3 A Projected percentage distribution of total population of Divisions of Bihar, 2006-2026 Division of Bihar Percentage distribution of population Bihar Bhagalpur 4.86 4.86 4.86 4.86 4.86 Darbhanga 12.42 12.45 12.46 12.47 12.47 Kosi 5.84 5.90 5.92 5.93 5.94 Magadh 10.83 10.93 10.98 11.00 11.01 Munger 9.13 9.16 9.17 9.18 9.18 Patna 16.42 15.93 15.69 15.58 15.52 Purnia 10.41 10.55 10.63 10.66 10.68 Saran 9.78 9.77 9.77 9.77 9.77 Tirhut 20.32 20.46 20.52 20.55 20.57 As the trends in ratios during the period immediately prior to 2001 would be of greater value for the purpose of projection than trends in the remote past, all the ratios of change in the ratios have been worked out with reference to 2001 Census ratios. The rates of change so determined were assumed to apply in the computations to the initial projection year 2001.The formula for projecting ratios for 2006, 2011, 2016, 2021, 2026 is as follows. 5 P 2006= P 2001 (1 + R o.t) where t = 5. Here Ro is the rate of change in the initial projection year. The same process has been repeated to get the ratios for every five years. After calculating the ratios, the estimates of future population of area i at any time t say, Pit is found by multiplying the estimated future ratio Rit by estimated future population of the larger area P i t as follows 6 : P i t = R i t*pt For the errors in projections by Ratio Method, which arises due to errors in projection of total population and the errors occurring in the estimation of ratio at a future date, an adjustment has been made in ratios or the estimates of population of various areas and the ratios have been prorated. The final estimate has been made using the following formula 6 : P i t = P i t *Pt/ P i t Finally, population projections of each division have been obtained from 2001 to 2026 by applying these projected ratios for divisions to projection of the total population of Bihar worked out by the Expert Committee for these years. Projections of the population of each district have been obtained by applying the districts ratios to the total projected population of division for these years. The results are shown in Table 4B. TABLE 4 A Projected percentage distribution of total population of Districts, 2006-2026 Divisions & Districts Percentage distribution of population Bhagalpur 60.33 60.44 60.50 60.53 60.54 Banka 39.67 39.56 39.50 39.47 39.46 Darbhanga 33.00 33.22 33.33 33.38 33.41 Madhubani 35.10 34.99 34.93 34.90 34.89 Samastipur 31.90 31.80 31.74 31.72 31.71 Madhepura 31.91 31.85 31.82 31.81 31.80 Saharsa 31.96 32.13 32.21 32.25 32.27 Supaul 36.13 36.02 35.97 35.94 35.93 Aurangabad 22.85 22.85 22.85 22.85 22.85 Gaya 39.36 39.33 39.31 39.30 39.30 Jehanabad 17.07 17.01 16.98 16.97 16.96 Nawada 20.72 20.81 20.86 20.88 20.89 Jamui 19.05 19.23 19.33 19.38 19.40 Khagaria 17.19 17.25 17.27 17.29 17.29 Munger 14.74 14.53 14.42 14.37 14.34 Lakhisarai 10.54 10.46 10.42 10.40 10.39 Sheikhpura 6.93 6.89 6.87 6.86 6.85 Begusarai 31.55 31.64 31.69 31.71 31.72 Vol. 55, No. 2, December 2009 57

Divisions & Districts Percentage distribution of population Bhojpur 15.38 15.32 15.28 15.27 15.26 Buxar 9.76 9.79 9.81 9.82 9.82 Kaimur 9.05 9.12 9.15 9.17 9.18 Patna 33.02 33.23 33.33 33.38 33.41 Rohtas 16.96 16.97 16.98 16.98 16.98 Nalanda 15.84 15.57 15.44 15.38 15.35 Araria 25.79 25.82 25.84 25.85 25.85 Katihar 28.28 28.17 28.11 28.08 28.07 Kishanganj 15.36 15.32 15.30 15.29 15.28 Purnia 30.57 30.69 30.75 30.78 30.80 Gopalganj 26.56 26.59 26.60 26.60 26.61 Saran 33.34 33.29 33.26 33.24 33.24 Siwan 40.09 40.13 40.14 40.15 40.16 East Champaran 23.68 23.68 23.69 23.69 23.69 Muzaffarpur 22.27 22.16 22.10 22.07 22.05 Sheohar 3.18 3.23 3.25 3.26 3.26 Sitamarhi 16.36 16.49 16.55 16.58 16.60 Vaishali 16.16 16.07 16.02 16.00 15.99 West Champaran 18.35 18.38 18.40 18.40 18.41 Method Used for Population Projection by Sex Projection for sex distribution of subnational population is very complex not only due to non-availability of reliable data on fertility and mortality but also due to greater role of migration influencing population. However, once ratio is projected one can get the proportionate distribution of population of state divisionwise and district-wise, respectively. It may be possible that the projected distribution may not add to unity and, therefore, they have to be adjusted. The method and assumptions used in projecting sex-wise district population is also obtained by the same procedure, i.e. projecting the total population of the division and district. The final results are utilized as a basis for the projection at the next projection date by the same procedure. The population projection by sex for each district is shown in Table 5B & 6B for male and female population, respectively. TABLE 5 A Projected percentage distribution of male population of Districts of Bihar, 2006-2026 Percentage Distribution of Population Divisions & Districts Bhagalpur 53.13 53.04 53.00 52.97 52.96 Banka 52.22 52.12 52.07 52.04 52.03 Darbhanga 52.22 52.20 52.19 52.18 52.18 Madhubani 51.36 51.29 51.25 51.24 51.23 Samastipur 51.84 51.83 51.82 51.82 51.82 Madhepura 51.80 51.60 51.49 51.44 51.42 Saharsa 51.98 51.80 51.71 51.66 51.64 Supaul 51.85 51.74 51.68 51.65 51.64 Aurangabad 51.46 51.33 51.27 51.24 51.22 Gaya 51.38 51.27 51.22 51.19 51.17 Jehanabad 51.70 51.64 51.61 51.59 51.58 Nawada 51.26 51.19 51.16 51.14 51.14 Jamui 51.92 51.81 51.76 51.73 51.72 Khagaria 52.81 52.68 52.62 52.59 52.57 Munger 53.17 53.06 53.00 52.97 52.95 Lakhisarai 51.50 51.22 51.08 51.01 50.97 Sheikhpura 51.84 51.68 51.61 51.57 51.55 Begusarai 52.11 52.01 51.97 51.94 51.93 Bhojpur 52.62 52.63 52.64 52.64 52.64 Buxar 52.44 52.34 52.28 52.26 52.24 Kaimur 52.31 52.19 52.12 52.09 52.08 Patna 53.32 53.28 53.26 53.25 53.24 Rohtas 52.16 52.06 52.00 51.98 51.97 Nalanda 52.03 51.92 51.87 51.84 51.83 Araria 52.17 52.12 52.10 52.09 52.08 Katihar 51.98 51.92 51.88 51.87 51.86 Kishanganj 51.61 51.60 51.59 51.58 51.58 Purnia 52.06 51.97 51.93 51.91 51.90 Gopalganj 49.55 49.33 49.23 49.17 49.15 Saran 50.84 50.82 50.81 50.81 50.81 Siwan 49.05 48.96 48.92 48.90 48.89 East Champaran 52.52 52.42 52.37 52.35 52.33 Muzaffarpur 51.86 51.75 51.70 51.67 51.65 Sheohar 52.91 52.84 52.80 52.78 52.78 Sitamarhi 52.72 52.66 52.63 52.61 52.60 Vaishali 52.08 52.08 52.08 52.08 52.08 West Champaran 52.27 52.10 52.02 51.97 51.95 58 The Journal of Family Welfare

TABLE 6A Projected Percentage Distribution of Female Population of Districts of Bihar, 2006-2026 Divisions & Districts Percentage distribution of population Bhagalpur 46.87 46.96 47.00 47.03 47.04 Banka 47.78 47.88 47.93 47.96 47.97 Darbhanga 47.78 47.80 47.81 47.82 47.82 Madhubani 48.64 48.71 48.75 48.76 48.77 Samastipur 48.16 48.17 48.18 48.18 48.18 Madhepura 48.20 48.40 48.51 48.56 48.58 Saharsa 48.02 48.20 48.29 48.34 48.36 Supaul 48.15 48.26 48.32 48.35 48.36 Aurangabad 48.54 48.67 48.73 48.76 48.78 Gaya 48.62 48.73 48.78 48.81 48.83 Jehanabad 48.30 48.36 48.39 48.41 48.42 Nawada 48.74 48.81 48.84 48.86 48.86 Jamui 48.08 48.19 48.24 48.27 48.28 Khagaria 47.19 47.32 47.38 47.41 47.43 Munger 46.83 46.94 47.00 47.03 47.05 Lakhisarai 48.50 48.78 48.92 48.99 49.03 Sheikhpura 48.16 48.32 48.39 48.43 48.45 Begusarai 47.89 47.99 48.03 48.06 48.07 Bhojpur 47.38 47.37 47.36 47.36 47.36 Buxar 47.56 47.66 47.72 47.74 47.76 Kaimur 47.69 47.81 47.88 47.91 47.92 Patna 46.68 46.72 46.74 46.75 46.76 Rohtas 47.84 47.94 48.00 48.02 48.03 Nalanda 47.97 48.08 48.13 48.16 48.17 Araria 47.83 47.88 47.90 47.91 47.92 Katihar 48.02 48.08 48.12 48.13 48.14 Kishanganj 48.39 48.40 48.41 48.42 48.42 Purnia 47.94 48.03 48.07 48.09 48.10 Gopalganj 50.45 50.67 50.77 50.83 50.85 Saran 49.16 49.18 49.19 49.19 49.19 Siwan 50.95 51.04 51.08 51.10 51.11 East Champaran 47.48 47.58 47.63 47.65 47.67 Muzaffarpur 48.14 48.25 48.30 48.33 48.35 Sheohar 47.09 47.16 47.20 47.22 47.22 Sitamarhi 47.28 47.34 47.37 47.39 47.40 Vaishali 47.92 47.92 47.92 47.92 47.92 West Champaran 47.73 47.90 47.98 48.03 48.05 Method Used for Population Projection by Place of Residence The method and assumptions used in projecting rural-urban district population is also obtained by the same procedure; i.e. projecting the total population of the division and district. The final results are utilized as a basis for the projection at the next projection date by the same procedure. The population projection by rural and urban place of residence for each district is shown in Table 7B and 8B for rural population, and urban population, respectively. TABLE 7A Projected percentage distribution of rural population of Districts of Bihar, 2006-2026 Divisions & Districts Bhagalpur 80.97 80.79 80.70 80.66 80.64 Banka 96.47 96.45 96.45 96.44 96.44 Darbhanga 92.16 92.30 92.36 92.39 92.41 Madhubani 96.59 96.62 96.64 96.65 96.65 Samastipur 96.86 97.07 97.17 97.22 97.24 Madhepura 96.27 96.57 96.71 96.78 96.81 Saharsa 90.99 90.61 90.42 90.32 90.27 Supaul 95.56 95.85 95.99 96.05 96.08 Aurangabad 91.13 90.90 90.79 90.73 90.70 Gaya 86.12 86.03 85.99 85.96 85.95 Jehanabad 92.04 91.72 91.55 91.47 91.43 Nawada 91.97 91.77 91.67 91.62 91.59 Jamui 92.47 92.39 92.35 92.33 92.32 Khagaria 94.04 94.03 94.03 94.03 94.03 Munger 73.06 73.54 73.78 73.90 73.96 Lakhisarai 84.52 84.10 83.88 83.77 83.72 Sheikhpura 84.47 84.45 84.43 84.43 84.42 Begusarai 96.69 97.16 97.36 97.45 97.50 Bhojpur 85.66 85.44 85.34 85.28 85.25 Buxar 90.34 90.10 89.98 89.91 89.88 Kaimur 96.47 96.32 96.23 96.19 96.17 Patna 56.62 55.70 55.24 55.01 54.90 Rohtas 86.95 87.09 87.16 87.20 87.22 Nalanda 85.04 85.02 85.01 85.01 85.01 Vol. 55, No. 2, December 2009 59

Divisions & Districts Araria 93.97 94.02 94.05 94.06 94.07 Katihar 91.01 91.08 91.11 91.13 91.14 Kishanganj 90.12 90.15 90.17 90.17 90.18 Purnia 91.09 91.00 90.96 90.94 90.93 Gopalganj 93.73 93.63 93.57 93.54 93.53 Saran 90.77 90.74 90.73 90.73 90.73 Siwan 94.40 94.35 94.32 94.31 94.30 East Champaran 93.25 93.05 92.95 92.90 92.87 Muzaffarpur 90.71 90.71 90.71 90.71 90.71 Sheohar 95.64 95.51 95.44 95.41 95.39 Sitamarhi 94.39 94.45 94.47 94.49 94.49 Vaishali 93.04 92.99 92.97 92.95 92.95 West Champaran 89.79 89.76 89.75 89.75 89.75 Table 8A Projected percentage distribution of urban population of Districts of Bihar Divisions & Districts Bhagalpur 19.03 19.21 19.30 19.34 19.36 Banka 3.53 3.55 3.55 3.56 3.56 Darbhanga 7.84 7.70 7.64 7.61 7.59 Madhubani 3.41 3.38 3.36 3.35 3.35 Samastipur 3.14 2.93 2.83 2.78 2.76 Madhepura 3.73 3.43 3.29 3.22 3.19 Saharsa 9.01 9.39 9.58 9.68 9.73 Supaul 4.44 4.15 4.01 3.95 3.92 Aurangabad 8.87 9.10 9.21 9.27 9.30 Gaya 13.88 13.97 14.01 14.04 14.05 Jehanabad 7.96 8.28 8.45 8.53 8.57 Nawada 8.03 8.23 8.33 8.38 8.41 Jamui 7.53 7.61 7.65 7.67 7.68 Khagaria 5.96 5.97 5.97 5.97 5.97 Munger 26.94 26.46 26.22 26.10 26.04 Lakhisarai 15.48 15.90 16.12 16.23 16.28 Sheikhpura 15.53 15.55 15.57 15.57 15.58 Begusarai 3.31 2.84 2.64 2.55 2.50 Divisions & Districts Bhojpur 14.34 14.56 14.66 14.72 14.75 Buxar 9.66 9.90 10.02 10.09 10.12 Kaimur 3.53 3.68 3.77 3.81 3.83 Patna 43.38 44.30 44.76 44.99 45.10 Rohtas 13.05 12.91 12.84 12.80 12.78 Nalanda 14.96 14.98 14.99 14.99 14.99 Araria 6.03 5.98 5.95 5.94 5.93 Katihar 8.99 8.92 8.89 8.87 8.86 Kishanganj 9.88 9.85 9.83 9.83 9.82 Purnia 8.91 9.00 9.04 9.06 9.07 Gopalganj 6.27 6.37 6.43 6.46 6.47 Saran 9.23 9.26 9.27 9.27 9.27 Siwan 5.60 5.65 5.68 5.69 5.70 East Champaran 6.75 6.95 7.05 7.10 7.13 Muzaffarpur 9.29 9.29 9.29 9.29 9.29 Sheohar 4.36 4.49 4.56 4.59 4.61 Sitamarhi 5.61 5.55 5.53 5.51 5.51 Vaishali 6.96 7.01 7.03 7.05 7.05 West Champaran 10.21 10.24 10.25 10.25 10.25 Limitations Since these projections are based on data of Expert Committee on Population Projection, the accuracy depends upon the accuracy of Expert Committee Projections. Apart from this, the reliability of the projections generally decreases as the size of the area decreases mainly because of the impact of migration. The projections made in this analysis assume that migration is constant. Bihar has high out-migration to the rural and urban areas of the neighbouring states, especially Delhi, Haryana, and Punjab as well as Maharashtra. The projections presented in this paper are likely to prove over-estimated. Results Trends in Demographic Indicators of Bihar It can be seen from the Table 1 that Basic Demographic Indicators have a downward tendency through the last decades. For example, the Crude Birth Rate of Bihar which was 39.1 in 1981 has reduced to 31.2 60 The Journal of Family Welfare

in 2001. Similarly, the Crude Death Rate of Bihar has also reduced considerably during the said period which was 13.9 in 1981 and has reduced to 8.2 in 2001. If we consider Infant Mortality Rate then the reduction is more perceptible, reduced from 117.8 in 1981 to 61.0 in 2001. A close look at the trends of Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in Bihar from 1981 onwards suggests that it has stalled over a decade recording minor fluctuations in its trends. But the broad pattern has remained by and large the same over the period, i.e. TFR of around 4, a level much higher than the national average. The Sex Ratio shows an alarming situation in the state of Bihar, it was 946 in 1981 which reduced considerably to 919 in 2001, much lower than the national average. On the other hand, Expectation of Life at Birth, which is the best indicator of mortality, has increased considerably during the aforesaid periods. It was 54.2 years in 19817 for males which increased to 65.6 years in 2001. Similarly, female life expectancy at birth in 1981 was 51.5 years which increased to 62.1 year in 2001. As seen from the Table, if we consider the Age-Group composition it has remained almost the same through the decades with slight variation in the age groups of 15-59 and 60+ years. However, if urban-rural perspective is taken, it can be observed that the population in the age group 0-14 years has reduced through the decades in both rural and urban areas and the population percent has increased in the age group 15-59 years in both the rural and urban areas. TABLE 2 Projected population of Bihar for 2001-2026 by sex and place of residence Population (000s) 2001 Total 82,999 90,752 97,720 103,908 109,431 113,847 Male projected population 43,244 47,165 50,640 53,676 56,341 58,409 Male (%) 52.10 51.97 51.82 51.66 51.49 51.30 Female 39,755 43,586 47,080 50,231 53,091 55,437 Female (%) 47.90 48.03 48.18 48.34 48.52 48.69 Rural 74,317 81,232 87,440 92,946 97,853 100,626 Rural (%) 89.54 89.51 89.48 89.45 89.42 88.39 Male 38,595 42,079 45,162 47,851 50,208 51,414 Male (%) 51.93 51.80 51.65 51.48 51.31 51.09 Female 35,722 39,152 42,278 45,094 47,646 49,211 Female (%) 48.07 48.20 48.35 48.52 48.69 48.90 Urban 8,682 9,520 10,280 10,962 11,578 13,221 Urban (%) 10.46 10.49 11.76 11.79 11.83 13.14 Male 4,649 5,086 5,478 5,825 6,133 6,995 Male (%) 53.55 53.42 53.29 53.14 52.97 52.91 Female 4,033 4,434 4,802 5,137 5,445 6,226 Female (%) 46.45 46.58 46.71 46.86 47.03 47.09 Source: Expert Committee Population Projection for India and States 2001-2026. Vol. 55, No. 2, December 2009 61

Table 2 shows that there will be a downward trend of the proportion of males in the total population throughout the period 2001-2026. The proportion of males will reduce from 52.1 percent in 2001 to 51.3 percent in 2026. However, during the same periods female proportion in the total population will increase from 47.9 percent to 48.7 percent. In rural areas, male population will have a downward trend and will have reduced proportion. In case of males, the proportion will be reduced from 51.9 percent in 2001 to 51.1 percent in 2026. However, during the same periods female proportion in total population will increase from 48.1 percent to 48.9 percent. In urban areas the reverse will happen. The proportion of urban population will increase over the years as shown in the Table it will increase from 10.5 percent in 2001 to 13.1 in 2026. The same trend will be seen in the proportion of male and female population in urban areas. In the case of male population the increase in proportion will be 10.7 percent in 2001 to 13.6 percent in 2026. However in case of female population the increase in proportion will be 10.1 percent to 12.6 percent. TABLE 3 B Projected total population of Divisions of Bihar, 2006-2026 Division Projected total population Bihar * 90,752,000 97,720,000 103,908,000 109,431,000 113,847,000 Bhagalpur 4,412,094 4,749,815 5,049,557 5,317,287 5,531,483 Darbhanga 11,267,038 12,164,320 12,950,553 13,647,001 14,201,845 Kosi 5,303,875 5,760,798 6,151,673 6,492,296 6,761,363 Magadh 9,824,366 10,676,912 11,404,672 12,037,918 12,537,734 Munger 8,281,836 8,946,592 9,527,630 10,041,469 10,450,487 Patna 14,900,864 15,568,894 16,307,477 17,045,545 17,666,835 Purnia 9,443,144 10,312,818 11,042,850 11,670,375 12,162,433 Saran 8,873,983 9,550,719 10,152,089 10,689,653 11,119,896 Tirhut 18,444,801 19,989,133 21,321,500 22,489,456 23,414,925 * Source-Expert Committee Population Projection for India and States 2001-2026. Table 3B shows the projected population of divisions of Bihar. Review of the Tables reveal that there will be increasing tendency in absolute population in all divisions of Bihar. However, increase in population will be of diminishing nature. The highest absolute increase in population may take place in Tirhut division followed by Darbhanga, Patna, and Purnia; whereas, lowest increase in absolute population will take place in Bhagalpur followed by Kosi and Munger, respectively, during 2006 and 2026. The results of the projection are given in Table 4B. 62 The Journal of Family Welfare

TABLE 4 B Projected total population of Districts of Bihar, 2006-2026 Projected Total Population Divisions & Districts Bhagalpur 2,661,777 2,870,952 3,055,011 3,218,507 3,348,947 Banka 1,750,316 1,878,862 1,994,546 2,098,780 2,182,536 Darbhanga 3,718,222 4,040,718 4,315,980 4,555,520 4,744,607 Madhubani 3,954,953 4,255,956 4,523,581 4,762,914 4,954,510 Samastipur 3,593,863 3,867,646 4,110,991 4,328,567 4,502,729 Madhepura 1,692,341 1,834,864 1,957,606 2,065,072 2,150,172 Saharsa 1,695,304 1,850,720 1,981,308 2,093,664 2,181,815 Supaul 1,916,230 2,075,214 2,212,759 2,333,560 2,429,376 Aurangabad 2,244,754 2,439,459 2,605,680 2,750,328 2,864,504 Gaya 3,866,693 4,198,892 4,483,297 4,731,278 4,927,224 Jehanabad 1,677,097 1,816,290 1,936,710 2,042,463 2,126,338 Nawada 2,035,821 2,222,270 2,378,986 2,513,849 2,619,668 Jamui 1,577,308 1,720,830 1,841,630 1,945,724 2,027,465 Khagaria 1,423,879 1,543,053 1,645,825 1,735,923 1,807,325 Munger 1,220,998 1,299,852 1,374,176 1,442,995 1,499,025 Lakhisarai 872,838 935,691 992,620 1,044,129 1,085,606 Sheikhpura 573,782 616,141 654,179 688,416 715,913 Begusarai 2,613,031 2,831,025 3,019,201 3,184,282 3,315,154 Bhojpur 2,291,463 2,384,450 2,492,402 2,602,491 2,695,937 Buxar 1,454,429 1,524,973 1,600,071 1,673,917 1,735,667 Kaimur 1,348,448 1,419,739 1,492,763 1,563,287 1,621,802 Patna 4,919,945 5,172,769 5,434,985 5,689,743 5,901,669 Rohtas 2,526,550 2,642,250 2,768,780 2,894,688 3,000,499 Nalanda 2,360,029 2,424,713 2,518,476 2,621,418 2,711,261 Araria 2,435,204 2,662,936 2,853,280 3,016,390 314,4073 Katihar 2,670,626 2,904,806 3,104,138 3,277,210 3,413,655 Kishanganj 1,450,896 1,580,100 1,689,585 1,784,346 1,858,926 Purnia 2886418 3164976 3395846 3592429 3,745,777 Gopalganj 2,357,362 2,539,275 2,700,299 2,843,880 2,958,653 Saran 2,958,618 3,179,016 3,376,410 3,553,734 3,696,007 Siwan 3,558,004 3,832,427 4,075,380 4,292,038 4,465,235 East Champaran 4,367,757 4,734,225 5,050,127 5,326,928 5,546,218 Muzaffarpur 4,107,663 4,428,603 4,711,533 4,963,159 5,164,034 Sheohar 587,227 644,952 692,559 732,945 764,385 Sitamarhi 3,018,307 3,295,609 3,528,442 3,728,682 3,885,748 Vaishali 2,979,822 3,211,877 3,416,667 3,598,926 3,744,475 West Champaran 3,384,025 3,673,867 3,922,172 4,138,816 4,310,065 The projected population of the district synchronizes with the trend of projected population of the state which shows that the results, thus, show that the projected population of the districts are valid in the light of state level projection for the period from 2006-2026. It would be interesting to glance at Table 4B, showing population size during 2006, 2011, 2016, 2021 and 2026. As regards population size, Patna district stands first followed by East Champaran, Muzaffarpur, Madhubani and Gaya; whereas, Sheikhpura will occupy the last position followed by Sheohar, Lakhisarai and Munger, during the aforesaid periods. Vol. 55, No. 2, December 2009 63

TABLE 5B Projected total male population of Districts of Bihar, 2006-2026 Divisions and Districts Bhagalpur 1,414,142 1,522,735 1,619,008 1,704,941 1,773,669 Banka 913,994 979,243 1,038,540 1,092,290 1,135,607 Darbhanga 1,941,527 2,109,162 2,252,436 2,377,234 2,475,794 Madhubani 2,031,106 2,182,787 2,318,504 2,440,359 2,538,104 Samastipur 1,863,034 2,004,474 2,130,334 2,242,946 2,333,121 Madhepura 876,709 946,749 1,008,056 1,062,327 1,105,549 Saharsa 881,234 958,665 1,024,512 1,081,661 1,126,708 Supaul 993,542 1,073,644 1,143,564 1,205,340 1,254,490 Aurangabad 1,155,129 1,252,264 1,335,958 1,409,258 1,467,312 Gaya 1,986,663 2,152,775 2,296,150 2,421,869 2,521,500 Jehanabad 867,126 937,904 999,452 1,053,691 1,096,787 Nawada 1,043,514 1,137,638 1,217,091 1,285,679 1,339,586 Jamui 818,870 891,568 953,186 1,006,551 1,048,569 Khagaria 751,889 812,911 866,034 912,906 950,176 Munger 649,260 689,640 728,253 764,293 793,746 Lakhisarai 449,528 479,265 507,027 532,603 553,378 Sheikhpura 297,424 318,446 337,609 355,016 369,061 Begusarai 1,361,699 1,472,542 1,568,950 1,653,960 1,721,533 Bhojpur 1,205,677 1,254,944 1,311,938 1,369,979 1,419,218 Buxar 762,705 798,101 836,566 874,737 906,778 Kaimur 705,427 740,928 778,093 814,359 844,585 Patna 2,623,358 2,756,001 2,894,570 3,029,654 3,142,191 Rohtas 1,317,890 1,375,473 1,439,889 1,504,609 1,559,214 Nalanda 1,227,948 1,258,950 1,306,255 1,358,930 1,405,133 Araria 1,270,387 1,387,948 1,486,493 1,571,117 1,637,439 Katihar 1,388,228 1,508,048 1,610,511 1,699,767 1,770,255 Kishanganj 748,854 815,257 871,595 920,399 958,827 Purnia 1,502,558 1,644,991 1,763,603 1,864,966 1,944,194 Gopalganj 1,167,959 1,252,673 1,329,230 1,398,392 1,454,040 Saran 1,504,101 1,615,615 1,715,650 1,805,605 1,877,814 Siwan 1,745,286 1,876,489 1,993,634 2,098,667 2,182,858 East Champaran 2,293,963 2,481,708 2,644,784 2,788,416 2,902,513 Muzaffarpur 2,130,346 2,291,878 2,435,683 2,564,386 2,667,458 Sheohar 310,674 340,770 365,685 386,884 403,414 Sitamarhi 1,591,197 1,735,340 1,856,845 1,961,643 2,043,973 Vaishali 1,551,806 1,672,696 1,779,371 1,874,301 1,950,109 West Champaran 1,768,695 1,914,059 2,040,154 2,151,118 2,239,225 64 The Journal of Family Welfare

TABLE 6B Projected of Total female population of Districts of Bihar, 2006-2026 Divisions & Districts Bhagalpur 1,247,635 1,348,218 1,436,004 1,513,566 1,575,278 Banka 836,323 899,620 956,006 1,006,491 1,046,929 Darbhanga 1,776,695 1,931,556 2,063,544 2,178,287 2,268,813 Madhubani 1,923,847 2,073,169 2,205,077 2,322,555 2,416,406 Samastipur 1,730,829 1,863,171 1,980,658 2,085,621 2,169,608 Madhepura 815,632 888,115 949,550 1,002,744 1,044,623 Saharsa 814,070 892,055 956,796 1,012,004 1,055,107 Supaul 922,689 1,001,570 1,069,195 1,128,221 1,174,886 Aurangabad 1,089,625 1,187,195 1,269,722 1,341,070 1,397,192 Gaya 1,880,030 2,046,118 2,187,147 2,309,410 2,405,724 Jehanabad 809,971 878,387 937,259 988,772 1,029,550 Nawada 992,308 1,084,632 1,161,894 1,228,170 1,280,082 Jamui 758,438 829,261 888,444 939,173 978,896 Khagaria 671,990 730,143 779,791 823,017 857,149 Munger 571,739 610,212 6,465,923 678,701 705,278 Lakhisarai 423,310 456,426 485,593 511,524 532,228 Sheikhpura 276,358 297,695 316,570 333,399 346,852 Begusarai 1,251,332 1,358,483 1,450,251 1,530,322 1,593,621 Bhojpur 1,085,786 1,129,506 1,180,464 1,232,512 1,276,719 Buxar 691,724 726,872 763,505 799,180 828,889 Kaimur 643,021 678,812 714,670 748,928 777,217 Patna 2,296,588 2,416,768 2,540,415 2,660,089 2,759,478 Rohtas 1,208,660 1,266,777 1,328,891 1,390,080 1,441,285 Nalanda 1,132,081 1,165,763 1,212,222 1,262,488 1,306,128 Araria 1,164,817 1,274,988 1,366,788 1,445,273 1,506,634 Katihar 1,282,398 1,396,759 1,493,627 1,577,443 1,643,400 Kishanganj 702,042 764,842 817,990 863,947 900,099 Purnia 1,383,859 1,519,986 1,632,243 1,727,463 1,801,584 Gopalganj 1,189,403 1,286,602 1,371,069 1,445,488 1,504,614 Saran 1,454,517 1,563,402 1,660,760 1,748,129 1,818,193 Siwan 1,812,717 1,955,938 2,081,745 2,193,371 2,282,377 East Champaran 2,073,794 2,252,518 2,405,343 2,538,511 2,643,705 Muzaffarpur 1,977,316 2,136,725 2,275,850 2,398,773 2,496,576 Sheohar 276,553 304,182 326,873 346,061 360,971 Sitamarhi 1,427,110 1,560,269 1,671,597 1,767,039 1,841,775 Vaishali 1,428,016 1,539,181 1,637,297 1,724,624 1,794,366 West Champaran 1,615,330 1,759,808 188,2018 1,987,698 207,0840 Vol. 55, No. 2, December 2009 65

Table 5B and 6B shows the projected population by district and sex for the period under study. It may be observed from the Tables that the overall sex-ratio for the state of Bihar has a tendency to increase from 2006 onwards. The male and female population has tendency to increase, but the absolute increase will be of diminishing nature and the sex ratio will improve in the aforesaid periods. Of the 37 districts of Bihar, 2 districts namely, Gopalganj and Siwan have had a higher sex ratio in 2001 and they continue to have a higher sex ratio till 2026. In all other districts of Bihar the same trend followed in 2001 may be followed during 2006-2026. In absolute terms, the highest increase in male population may take place in Gaya district while in case of females; the highest increase in population may take place in East Champaran. On the reverse, the lowest increase in both male and female population may take place in Sheikhpura district during 2006-2026. TABLE 7B Projected of total rural population of Districts of Bihar Divisions & Districts Bhagalpur 2,155,362 2,319,576 2,465,518 2,596,003 2,700,451 Banka 1,688,456 1,812,201 1,923,643 2,024,100 2,104,837 Darbhanga 3,426,826 3,729,429 3,986,314 4,209,039 4,384,512 Madhubani 3,819,941 4,112,125 4,371,472 4,603,158 4,788,536 Samastipur 3,480,857 3,754,307 3,994,633 4,208,144 4,378,531 Madhepura 1,629,185 1,771,975 1,893,259 1,998,585 2,081,657 Saharsa 1,542,639 1,677,025 1,791,447 1,890,932 1,969,440 Supaul 1,831,217 1,989,112 2,123,935 2,241,413 2,334,227 Aurangabad 2,045,539 2,217,517 2,365,640 2,495,374 2,598,135 Gaya 3,329,998 3,612,324 3,854,977 4,067,136 4,235,019 Jehanabad 1,543,544 1,665,871 1,773,123 1,868,227 1,944,046 Nawada 1,872,349 2,039,415 2,180,821 2,303,160 2,399,435 Jamui 1,458,519 1,589,914 1,700,813 1,796,571 1,871,848 Khagaria 1,338,961 1,451,009 1,547,640 1,632,358 1,699,437 Munger 892,034 955,954 1,013,914 1,066,413 1,108,713 Lakhisarai 737,710 786,898 832,640 874,713 908,867 Sheikhpura 484,688 520,303 552,336 581,196 604,386 Begusarai 2,526,511 2,750,528 2,939,472 3,103,205 3,232,258 Bhojpur 1,962,784 2,037,349 2,126,896 2,219,427 2,298,385 Buxar 1,313,954 1,374,005 1,439,695 1,505,097 1,560,074 Kaimur 1,300,873 1,367,433 1,436,552 1,503,772 1,559,719 Patna 2,785,690 2,881,488 3,002,544 3,130,159 3,239,932 Rohtas 2,196,916 2,301,259 2,413,400 2,524,157 2,616,945 Nalanda 2,007,029 2,061,556 2,141,025 2,228,408 2,304,714 Araria 2,288,428 2,503,797 2,683,491 2,837,276 2,957,576 Katihar 2,430,614 2,645,693 2,828,277 2,986,512 3,111,136 Kishanganj 1,307,488 1,424,451 1,523,434 1,609,025 1,676,355 Purnia 2,629,219 2,880,244 3,088,877 3,266,910 3,405,956 66 The Journal of Family Welfare

Divisions & Districts Gopalganj 2,209,555 2,377,397 2,526,717 2,660,305 2,767,271 Saran 2,685,391 2,884,759 3,063,522 3,224,223 3,353,205 Siwan 3,358,616 3,615,781 3,843,991 4,047,815 4,210,879 East Champaran 4,072,999 4,405,364 4,694,186 4,948,732 5,151,015 Muzaffarpur 3,725,975 4,017,215 4,273,927 4,502,216 4,684,453 Sheohar 561,601 615,979 660,990 699,290 729,158 Sitamarhi 2,849,075 3,112,575 3,333,405 3,523,064 3,671,722 Vaishali 2,772,371 2,986,716 3,176,318 3,345,316 3,480,379 West Champaran 3,038,369 3,297,811 3,520,276 3,714,497 3,868,071 TABLE 8B Projected total urban population of Districts of Bihar, 2006-2026 Divisions & Districts Bhagalpur 506,415 551, 376 589,493 622,504 648,496 Banka 61,860 66,661 70,903 74,681 77,699 Darbhanga 291,396 311,290 329,666 346,481 360,094 Madhubani 135,012 143,831 152,109 159,755 165,973 Samastipur 113,006 113,338 116,358 120,424 124,198 Madhepura 63,156 62,888 64,347 66,486 68,515 Saharsa 152,664 173,695 189,860 202,732 212,375 Supaul 8,5013 8,6102 8,8824 92,148 95,149 Aurangabad 199,216 221,942 240,040 254,953 266,369 Gaya 536,695 586,569 628,319 664,142 692,205 Jehanabad 133,553 150,419 163,587 174,236 182,292 Nawada 163,473 182,855 198,165 210,688 220,233 Jamui 118,790 130,915 140,817 149,154 155,617 Khagaria 84,918 92,044 98,185 103,565 107,828 Munger 328,965 343,898 360,262 376,582 390,312 Lakhisarai 135,128 148,793 159,980 169,416 176,739 Sheikhpura 89,093 95,838 101,843 107,220 111,527 Begusarai 86,520 80,498 79,729 81,078 82,896 Bhojpur 328,678 347,101 365,506 383,064 397,552 Buxar 140,475 150,968 160,375 168,821 175,593 Kaimur 47,575 52,306 56,211 59,516 62,084 Patna 2,134,255 2,291,281 2,432,441 2,559,584 2,661,737 Rohtas 329,633 340,991 355,380 370,531 383,553 Nalanda 353,000 363,157 377,451 393,010 406,547 Araria 146,776 159,139 169,789 179,114 186,497 Katihar 240,012 259,113 275,861 290,699 302,519 Kishanganj 143,408 155,649 166,151 175,321 182,571 Purnia 257,199 284,732 306,969 325,519 339,821 Vol. 55, No. 2, December 2009 67

Divisions & Districts Gopalganj 147,807 161,878 173,582 183,575 191,383 Saran 273,226 294,257 312,889 329,511 342,802 Siwan 199,388 216,647 231,389 244,223 254,356 East Champaran 294,758 328,861 355,941 378,195 395,203 Muzaffarpur 381,687 411,388 437,606 460,943 479,581 Sheohar 25,626 28,973 31,569 33,655 35,227 Sitamarhi 169,233 183,033 195,038 205,618 214,026 Vaishali 207,451 225,161 240,349 253,610 264,096 West Champaran 345,656 376,055 401,897 424,320 441,993 Table 7B and 8B reveal the population size in rural and urban areas in different districts of Bihar during 2006-2026, respectively. In respect of rural population East Champaran may stand first followed by Madubani, Muzaffarpur, Samastipur and Siwan; whereas, the last position maybe held by Sheohar followed by Lakhisarai and Munger. Urban population of Patna district may hold the first position followed by Gaya, Bhagalpur, Muzaffarpur, and Nalanda; whereas, the last position may be held by Sheohar followed by Kaimur, Banka, and Madhepura. Conclusion The Ratio Method of projection adopted to project the district-wise populations may be considered as a technique which gives reasonably good estimates in the situation where detailed data on various components of population changes are not fully available and the fragmentary information like the ratio of the population of the smaller area (district) to that of the larger area (state) of which it is a part alone is known. The Ratio Method can be used with advantage for all practical purposes provided, of course, a reasonably acceptable population projection is available for the larger area of population change in these two areas are related. On the basis of projections done by the Expert Committee, the population of Bihar may increase from nearly 90.8 million (47.2 million males and 43.6 million females) in 2006, to nearly 113.8 million (58.4 million males and 55.4 million females) in 2026. On the basis of this projection, for 37 districts of Bihar, Sheikhpura is a district which occupies the lowest rank for male, female and total population; whereas, Patna occupies the highest rank for total population, for male population and for female population for 2006, 2011, 2016, 2021 and 2026, respectively. If division-wise projection for 2006 and 2026 is considered, in 2006 Tirhut would be placed at the first rank followed by Patna. Again, if bottom rank is considered, the two divisions; namely, Kosi and Bhagalpur will be 8th and 9th rank in 2006 and 2026. As people have a tendency to settle in areas which offer greater opportunities for earning a livelihood, better transport facilities due to development of railways and national highways, greater possibility of a comfortable living, development of new townships, government or cooperative efforts towards rehabilitation, industrial establishments, rural and urban characteristics, place of pilgrimage are other contributing factors. Accordingly, districts of Patna, Gaya and Muzaffarpur are better placed than the districts of Sheohar, Kaimur, Banka, which suffer from the drawbacks of possessing tracts of underdevelopment, remoteness, hilly regions and forest areas. 68 The Journal of Family Welfare

Thus, within Bihar wide disparity is prevalent among the districts with regard to the distribution of population, however, there are some districts such as Gopalganj and Siwan where the sex-ratio is in favour of females, probably because of the male dominant out-migration from the rural areas in these districts to other states in search of jobs. References 1. Registrar General of India, Government of India. Expert Committee population projection by agesex for period 2001-2026. 2. Districts Census Handbooks of Bihar for 1991 and 2001 Censuses. 3. Hagood, M.J. and Seigel, J.S. April. 1951. Projections for the regional distribution of the population of the United States to 1975, 3(2):44. 4. Techniques of demographic analysis, K.B. Pathak, and F. Ram (Eds.). Himalya Publishing House, 1998. 5. Basic demographic techniques and applications. K. Srinivasan, Editor. Sage Publications, 1998. 6. An introduction to the study of population. B.D. Mishra, Editor. South Asian Publishers Pvt. Ltd., 1980. 7. Singh, J.P and Tiwary, D. 2008. Population & health in Bihar (Figures at a glance). Population Research Centre, Department of Statistics, Patna University. 8. Registrar General of India. 1985. Sample Registration System, Statistical Report 1981. Office of the Registrar General, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of India, New Delhi. 9. Registrar General of India. 1993. Sample Registration System, Statistical Report 1991. Office of the Registrar General, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of India, New Delhi. 10. Registrar General of India. 2004. Sample Registration System, Statistical Report 2001. Office of the Registrar General, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of India, New Delhi. Vol. 55, No. 2, December 2009 69