Environmental Security and Environmental Management: The Role of Risk Assessment

Environmental Security and Environmental Management: The Role of Risk Assessment

NATO Security through Science Series A Series presenting the results of scientific meetings supported under the NATO Programme for Security through Science (STS). The Series is published by IOS Press, Amsterdam, and Springer Science and Business Media, Dordrecht, in conjunction with the NATO Public Diplomacy Division. Sub-Series A. Chemistry and Biology (Springer Science and Business Media) B. Physics and Biophysics (Springer Science and Business Media) C. Environmental Security (Springer Science and Business Media) D. Information and Communication Security (IOS Press) E. Human and Societal Dynamics (IOS Press) Meetings supported by the NATO STS Programme are in security-related priority areas of Defence Against Terrorism or Countering Other Threats to Security. The types of meeting supported are generally Advanced Study Institutes and Advanced Research Workshops. The NATO STS Series collects together the results of these meetings. The meetings are co-organized by scientists from NATO countries and scientists from NATO s Partner or Mediterranean Dialogue countries. The observations and recommendations made at the meetings, as well as the contents of the volumes in the Series, reflect those of the participants in the workshop. They should not necessarily be regarded as reflecting NATO views or policy. Advanced Study Institutes (ASI) are high-level tutorial courses to convey the latest developments in a subject to an advanced-level audience Advanced Research Workshops (ARW) are expert meetings where an intense but informal exchange of views at the frontiers of a subject aims at identifying directions for future action Following a transformation of the programme in 2004 the Series has been re-named and re-organised. Recent volumes on topics not related to security, which result from meetings supported under the programme earlier, may be found in the NATO Science Series www.nato.int/science www.springeronline.com www.iospress.nl Series C: Environmental Security Vol. 5

Environmental Security and Environmental Management: The Role of Risk Assessment edited by Benoit Morel Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, U.S.A. and Igor Linkov Cambridge Environmental, Inc., Cambridge, Massachusetts, U.S.A. and Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, U.S.A. Published in cooperation with NATO Public Diplomacy Division

Based on papers presented at the NATO Advanced Research Workshop on The Role of Risk Assessment in Environmental Security and Emergency Preparedness in the Mediterranean Region Eilat, Israel 15-18 April 2004 A C.I.P. Catalogue record for this book is available from the Library of Congress. ISBN-10 1-4020-3892-5 (PB) ISBN-13 978-1-4020-3892-1 (PB) ISBN-10 1-4020-3891-7 (HB) ISBN-13 978-1-4020-3891-4 (HB) ISBN-10 1-4020-3893-3 (e-book) ISBN-13 978-1-4020-3893-8 (e-book) Published by Springer, P.O. Box 17, 3300 AA Dordrecht, The Netherlands. www.springeronline.com Printed on acid-free paper All Rights Reserved 2006 Springer No part of this work may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, microfilming, recording or otherwise, without written permission from the Publisher, with the exception of any material supplied specifically for the purpose of being entered and executed on a computer system, for exclusive use by the purchaser of the work. Printed in the Netherlands.

TABLE OF CONTENTS Preface Acknowledgements Part 1. Environmental Security Environmental Security, Critical Infrastructure and Risk Assessment: Definitions and Current Trends. D.A. Belluck, R.N. Hull, S.L. Benjamin, J. Alcorn, I. Linkov Security and the Environment in the Middle East Water Issues. B. Morel Potential of Solar Thermal Desalination to Defuse Water as a Conflict Issue in the Middle East Proposal for Functional Cooperation in the Gulf of Aqaba. H. G. Brauch Water Resources Management and Environmental Security in Mediterranean Transboundary River Basins J. Ganoulis The Role of Comparative Risk Assessment in Decision Analysis Marshlands of Mesopotamia and Affected Riparian Countries C. Maxwell A Future for the Dead Sea Basin: Options for a More Sustainable Water Management C. Lipchin Are Standard Risk Acceptability Criteria Applicable to Critical Infrastructure Based on Environmental Security Needs? D.A. Belluck, R.N. Hull, S.L. Benjamin, J. Alcorn, I. Linkov From global warming to water scarcity: what are the most urgent environmental problems of the region. Report of the Discussion Group on Environmental Security A. Morel and B. Morel ix xi 1 3 17 25 49 59 79 93 103 v

vi Part 2. Environmental Management The Interconnection Between the Built Environment, Ecology and Health. H. S. Koren, C. D. Butler Statistical Models for Distributions of Ambient Fine Particulate Matter. S. Yeh, M. J. Small QnD: A Scenario-Based Gaming System for Modeling Environmental Processes and Management Decisions G. A. Kiker, N. A. Rivers-Moore, M. K. Kiker, I.Linkov Mapping of Relative Risk U. Schlink, O. Herbarth, A. Kindler, P. Krumbiegel, K. Strebel, B. Engelmann Understanding Risk Culture and Developing a Soft Approach to Risk Assessment Methodologies S. Rao Different Preventive Strategies Require Diversified Risk Assessment Models S. Menoni Coupling Public Participation and Expert Judgment for Assessment of Innovative Contaminated Sediment Technologies T. P. Seager, S. H. Rogers, K.H. Gardner, I. Linkov, R. Howarth Environmental Risk Assessment and Management: Promoting Security in the Middle East and in the Mediterranean Region. Report of the Working Group on Environmental Risk Assessment and Management J. Ganoulis, L. Simpson 109 111 127 151 187 201 211 223 245 Part 3. Case Studies in Environmental Security and Environmental Management Reuse of Wastewater in Agriculture- Economic Assessment of Treatment and Supply Alternatives as Affecting Aquifer Pollution. N. Haruvy Minimizing the Risks Associated with Water Scarcity. S. Arlosoroff Integrated Risk-Based Management of Water Resources in the Jordan River Basin E. Levner 255 257 263 269

vii Outcome of Nato Workshop on Radiological Risk in Central Asia M.K. Zaidi, F. Steinhausler, I. Mustafaev, R.E. Dunker Public Transport Policy & Measures That Could Improve the Air Quality in Major Cities in Syria, A Case Study: Damascus. J. Chahoud The Modeling of Combine Impact of Waste Heat Discharge into Offshore Strip from Cooling Systems and Power Plants A. Andrijievskij, A. Lukashevich, A. Trifonov Role of Synergy in Biological Risk Assessment. N. Goncharova Cooperative Networks for Environmental Risk Analysis Studies: The Case of the Middle East Region M. K. Zaidi, J. Ganoulis List of Participants Author Index 281 287 297 307 315 321 325

PREFACE The concept of environmental security has emerged as one basis for understanding international conflicts. This phrase can mean a variety of things. It can signify security issues stemming from environmental concerns or conflicting needs, or it can mean that the environment is treated as a resource for the long term, and the question is what should be done today to preserve the quality of the environment in the future. In the same way that energy security is about ensuring access to energy for the long run, it can also mean that pressing environmental concerns create a situation where different countries and communities are forced to collaboratively design a unified response, even if cooperation is not generally in the logic of their relations. Over the last several years, the authors of this book and their colleagues have tried to demonstrate the power of risk assessment and decision analysis as valuable tools that decision makers should use for a broad range of environmental problems, including environmental security. Risk analysis is almost more a state of mind or a way of looking at problems than it is a kind of algorithm or a set of recipes. It projects a kind of rationality on problems and forces a certain degree of quantitative rigor, as opposed to the all too common tendency of making environmental recommendations based on anecdotal evidence. This book is based on the discussions and papers prepared for the NATO Advanced Research Workshop that took place in Eilat, Israel, in April 2004. The workshop in Eilat was the third meeting sponsored jointly by the Society for Risk Analysis and NATO. The goal of the first workshop in this series, entitled Assessment and Management of Environmental Risks: Cost-efficient Methods and Applications 1 (Lisbon, Portugal, October 2000), was to present risk assessment as a unified technique for providing a scientific basis for environmentally sound and cost-efficient policies, strategies, and solutions for various environmental problems. The workshop confirmed risk assessment as a viable tool for developing countries. One of the workshop suggestions was to organize a more focused topical meeting on the application of specific risk-based techniques in developing Mediterranean countries. The second workshop, Comparative Risk Assessment and Environmental Management, 2 was an important step in the development and application of comparative risk assessment (CRA) and other risk-based decision-analytical tools in environmental management. Comparative Risk Assessment (CRA) is a methodology applied to facilitate decisionmaking when various activities compete for limited resources. This application is thus especially relevant to developing countries. The workshop in Italy was one of the first 1 Linkov, I., Palma Oliveira, J.M., eds Assessment and Management of Environmental Risks, Kluwer, Amsterdam, 2001. 2 Linkov, I., Ramadan, A.B., eds Comparative Risk Assessment and Environmental Decision Making, Kluwer, Amsterdam, 2004. ix

x to place CRA as part of the more general but as yet quite academic field of multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA). The organization of the book reflects sessions and discussions during the meeting in Eilat. The goal of the workshop was to expand concepts introduced in the first two meetings and explore their applications to the field of environmental security as well as to specific realities of the Middle East. One question the workshop did not answer definitively is in fact what could have been construed as the fundamental question: what is exactly environmental security? The introductory chapter by Belluck et al. provides alternative definition to this term and explores its connection with risk assessment. In certain situations, such as extreme events, risk assessment provides a unique level of analytic power, as was illustrated in this workshop in the case of the earthquakes in Turkey, for example. The individual chapters are grouped into sections which reflect broad issues discussed at the meeting. Many of the contributions to the book do not deal directly with the region of Israel and its neighbors. Instead, they tend to apply a risk analytical approach to a variety of environmental problems. The goal was as much to inform about the problems as it was to show the power of risk analysis as a tool to discuss environmental policy. Risk assessment also points to the need for certain data. It helps to identify what data would be useful or are needed. It clarifies the discussion and provides a common language to the policy makers. It is also clear that risk analysis still needs refinements for it to be more universally accepted as a tool for environmental policy discussions. In addition to plenary sessions, the meeting included two discussion groups which took two very different perspectives on the issues. One took a risk analysis approach to environmental security. The other originally tried to put the environmental issues pertaining to the region in the broader context of climate change and international environmental concerns. Reports from these groups are included in this book. The workshop concluded that environmental security has a special connotation in the Middle East. The region defined by Israel and its neighbors is confronted with immediate environmental issues which make concerns about global warming a less urgent priority. Since the resumption of the Intifada in September 2000, the West Bank and Gaza have been suffering from environmental neglect. The fact that the environmental situation has been degrading is beyond debate, but the extent of the problem is not precisely known. This is happening in a location where for years water quantity (and now quality) have been a source of growing concern and also controversy. The agreements negotiated in the 90 s during the Oslo process in fact did not resolve the problems associated with water allocation and completely ignored the environmental implication of letting the Jordan River without replenishment of its water. One clear message of the discussions is that this region needs immediate and international attention. Igor Linkov and Benoit Morel April, 2005 Cambridge, MA

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The meeting took place at a time when terrorist acts and suicide bombings were relatively common in Israel and US nationals were advised to avoid visiting the region. We would like to thank workshop participants for their contribution to the meeting and the book. One unfortunate impact of the security situation was to preclude any Arab participation. We would like to thank Dr. Abou Bakr Ramadan for his enthusiastic support of the meeting and scientific collaboration in the region. We are grateful to Mr. David Letnik of the Israel Engineering Academy and Arava Institute for helping with meeting logistics. The editors would like to thank Drs. Tal, Levner, and Marquina for their help in the workshop organization. Excellent editorial and technical assistance was provided by Lori Simpson, Alexandra Morel and Elena Belinkaia. The workshop agenda was prepared in collaboration with the Society for Risk Analysis (SRA). Financial support for the workshop organization was provided mainly by NATO. Additional funding was provided by Isrotel. xi