The 4A Vision: Anytime, anywhere, by anyone and anything Dr Tim Kelly Head, Strategy & Policy Unit, ITU and Visiting Scholar, HKUST Business School ITAHK Luncheon, 8 December 2005
2 The 4A vision: Agenda Alternative visions of our common future Ubiquity Next generation networks Convergence What s driving the market? Market evolution Technological drivers Price trends Policy questions Governance Privacy and data protection Towards a new digital ecosystem
Alternative visions Ubiquitous network societies anytime, anywhere, by anyone and anything (Tokyo WSIS Thematic Meeting) Ubiquitous computing: The most profound technologies are those that disappear. They weave themselves into the fabric of everyday life until they are indistinguishable from it. Mark Weiser (1991) 3 Next Generation Networks: packet-based network able to provide telecommunication services and make use of multiple broadband [ ] transport technologies in which service-related functions are independent from underlying transport-related technologies. ITU-T Recommendation Y.2001
A new ubiquity for technology 4 Weiser s vision: dedicated IT devices will eventually disappear, while information processing capabilities will be increasingly available Ubiquity refers refers to unobtrusive connectivity anytime and anywhere, by anyone Extending connectivity to the underserved Early example: reaching two billion mobile phones in 2005 but also by anything Creating a network of things
enabling a new dimension Any TIME connection On the move Outdoors and indoors Night Daytime On the move Outdoors Indoors (away from the PC) At the PC Any WHERE connection Between PCs Human to Human (H2H), not using a PC Human to Thing (H2T), using generic equipment Thing to Thing (T2T) 5 Any THING connection Source: ITU, Adapted from NRI (Japan)
Today s and tomorrow s networks Today s PSTN network Circuit-switched. Limited mobility of end-user services. Vertical integration of application and call control layers, with dedicated networks. Non-responsive network. Next Generation Networks Packet-based, based on Internet Protocol (IP). Broad-based generalised mobility. Horizontally-integrated control layers, with simultaneous delivery of applications. Servicerelated functions independent of transportrelated technologies. NGN will be able to identify and adapt to user needs in real-time. 6 Source: ITU Internet Reports 2005: The Internet of Things
Viewed from a different perspective Fixed/mobile convergence Speed Broadband WLAN Battleground for fixed/mobile convergence 7 3G Mobility
What s driving the market? (1) Near saturation of traditional markets Telecom services revenue, in US$ bn Fixed-line and mobile services revenue, in US$ bn 1'200 25% 1'200 45% 1'000 800 600 400 Developing countries Developing as % of total 20% 15% 10% 1'000 800 600 400 Mobile as % of total Mobile 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 200 Developed countries 5% 200 Fixed-lines 10% 5% 0 1990 1 2 3 4 1995 6 7 8 9 2000 1 2 3 0% 0 1990 1 2 3 4 1995 6 7 8 9 2000 1 2 3 0% Developing countries growing faster that developed ones Mobile markets growing faster than fixed-line markets Source: ITU Internet Reports 2005: The Internet of Things
What s driving the market? (2) Miniaturization of devices and prices (4) Smart Things Miniaturization and cost reduction (1) Mainframe (2) PCs (3) Mobiles / Smart Cards Source: ITU, Ubiquitous Network Societies Their Impact on the Telecommunication Industry, April 2005. Time
Four key technological enablers Tagging Things: RFID enabling real-time identification and tracking Sensing Things: Sensor technologies enabling detection of environmental status and sensory information Thinking Things: Smart technologies building intelligence into the edges of the network enabling smart homes, smart vehicles etc Shrinking Things: Nanotechnology making possible the networking of smaller and smaller objects 10
RFID multiplies network connections; and maps the physical onto the virtual world Source: Adapted from Murakami, ITU-T NGN Forum
From RFID to sensors Sensors detect context and humanise technological helpers If RFID answers the question what and where, a sensor might answer the question how A sensor detects, senses and/or measures physical stimuli, e.g. motion, heat, speed, pressure, presence of bacteria etc RFID combined with sensors enhance the data flow between objects Sensors can act as a further bridge between the physical and virtual worlds 12
Trends in broadband speeds and prices Lowest sampled cost, US$ per 100 kbit/s per month 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2003 2004 2005 Note: Based on 70 economies that had launched broadband services by 2003. Source: ITU Internet of things. Prices sampled in July/August. Median $ per 100 kbit/s Average down speed 4'500 4'000 3'500 3'000 2'500 2'000 1'500 1'000 500 0 Down speed (kbit/s)
Important emerging policy challenges 14 Standards-setting and interoperability Harmonization required particularly in the area of transmission protocols Competing tag formats: EPC and UCode Governance of resources Who controls the unique identifiers? More commercial value at stake than for the domain system? Data protection and consumer privacy Information contained on tags should appropriately managed and controlled
Facets of privacy protection Legal/regulatory Consumer consent Collection limitation Use limitation Openness Accountability Technical Encryption ID management Privacy-enhancing technologies (PETs) Privacy Protection Economic/market Self-regulation Codes of conduct Privacy certification Consumer education Source: ITU Internet Reports 2005: The Internet of Things 15 Socio-ethical Consumer rights Public awareness Disclosure consumer advocacy
Towards a new digital ecosystem the Internet of Things 16 Source: ITU Internet Reports 2005: The Internet of Things
Thank you The Internet of Things report is available at http://www.itu.int/internetofthings Tim Kelly Tim.kelly@itu.int 17