Annotated Chapter Outline Chapter 1: Context, Scope and Approach 1. Context. Access-poverty-economy linkages, need for substantive scale-up, global movement SE4ALL, SDGs, etc. 2. Rationale. Complementary narrative around the GTF numbers, complementing the other components of the Knowledge Hub Comprehensive report on global progress in extending access to electricity, modern cooking solutions, productive and community uses of energy covering different facets. Analysis of key issues and challenges for scale up. The analytical framework will focus on different dimensions of energy access including socio-economics, policy and regulation, finance, institutions and markets, and technologies. 3. Expected outcomes. Development knowledge on energy access extended and deepened: the SEAR s country examples will draw on good emerging practices that could be tailored for learning and replication in other countries and highlight the challenges so as to aid development of meaningful solutions. Energy access policy/strategy informed: SEAR s country status analysis and focused discussion on special themes/ development aspects are expected to stimulate debate among SE4ALL stakeholders and the development community leading to informed policies and strategies. 4. Approach. SEAR will build the analysis around different dimensions that influence the access programs: policy and regulation; finance; institutions and markets; technology; socioeconomic issues; gender; and, co-benefits. Issues relevant across all dimensions such as capacity building, knowledge management, sustainability, etc. will be covered in the analysis. In each dimension, the discussion is illustrated with specific case study examples. In addition to regular chapters, the report will have special features (5-6 pages) that focus on specific themes, and will then be linked to the respective chapters. Detailed case studies will be conducted to highlight major national/regional programs, their success factors, benefits, lessons learnt, etc. Retrospective impact assessments will be added to provide evidence on socio-economic benefits of energy access. Chapter 2: Status and trends of modern energy access The status discussion will build on the second GTF report (to be released in early 2015), and will provide an updated global, regional, and country-level snapshot on electricity and clean cooking access of developing countries. Additionally, the chapter will focus on a set of high impact countries and how interventions in those countries could address the global access gap. 1
Electricity Access Need for scale up action in expanding electricity access Status of electricity access and historical trends: updated data including countries with lowest access rate; countries with largest access deficit; and fastest growing countries in access Regional breakdown baseline and trends Trends and scenarios towards 2030 Modern cooking energy Access Rationale for major interventions in clean cooking sector Status of clean cooking access and historical trends Updated data including countries with lowest access rate; countries with largest access deficit; fastest growing countries in access; regional breakdown Trends and scenarios towards 2030 Chapter 3: New approach in defining and measuring access SEAR will highlight the multi-tier framework developed for measuring energy access as one of the most significant developments in the analytical sphere of energy access. SEAR will also report on the updated efforts to validate the methodology through compilation of new data across different countries. Building on the work done in ESMAP/WB and reported in the GTF, SEAR will discuss the implications for policy, planning and tracking energy access programs in detail and presents arguments on why this should become the standard approach for measurement as the world moves towards the goal of universal energy access. Chapter 4: Key dimensions of energy access interventions Key dimensions of energy access interventions To understand and develop energy access interventions, it is valuable to use an analytical framework (Figure below) to capture the various dimensions underlying planning for and provision of energy access by varied stakeholders. These dimensions relate to various elements that affect and influence access to electricity and cooking solutions. Each of these dimensions also entail varied considerations such as issues and constraints, success factors, and risks that need to be taken into account for the planning, design, development, and implementation of energy access interventions. There also cross-cutting areas such as defining and measuring access, capacity building, knowledge management, and sustainability that span the various dimensions and affect the nature, robustness, ownership, and long-term success of energy access interventions. The sections below discuss these various dimensions of energy access interventions illustrated with contextual examples to provide insights into the issues and constraints as well as the levers and opportunities to consider in increasing electricity and cooking access. This chapter concludes with an application of this lens to a select energy access programs and an exercise that illustrates how the various dimensions and cross-cutting areas interplay in planning for energy access under varied scenarios for electricity access. 2
Policy and Regulation Co-benefits (Nexus) Finance Gender Definition and measurement; Capacity Building; Knowledge management Sustainability Institutions and Markets Socioeconomics Technology What are the key dimensions of energy access interventions? Define and disaggregate elements of the key dimensions Policy and Regulation, Technology, Socio-economics, Financing, Institutions, Markets, Gender, Nexus (Co-benefits) How do the dimensions affect provision and scale up of energy access? How does each of these dimensions affect the success or failure of energy access interventions? What are the challenges and opportunities each dimension entails? Considerations along the dimensions for design and implementation of energy access interventions Issues and constraints Success factors and Risks Lessons learned and insights from global experiences Cross-cutting areas and enablers Defining and measuring access (Chapter 2); Knowledge management; Capacity building; Sustainability Application and Use of the analytical framework Analytical Lens into select energy access programs An exercise in planning: Considerations and illustration for electricity access In SEAR, a new effort will be undertaken to complement the knowledge and tools currently in place for understanding the scope and cost of achieving universal access and planning for access in the context of a country s energy system, demand scenarios, institutions, and economic and financial considerations. This effort will use the cost models and the system planning tools as starting points to delve into a representative sample of countries and develop scenarios for electricity access under the context of the SE4ALL goals. In particular, the planning exercise will: Assess the current goals and targets for a country Identify portfolio of electrification options [grid(densification, cost-effective options), off-grid (pre-electrification, off-grid (last-mile electrification)] feasible in the country and size the impact 3
Apply the tiered framework for electricity access to identify alternative scenarios for varied mix of the options Develop scenarios including costing to illustrate pathways in planning Discuss interplay of the key dimensions and cross-cutting areas and enablers for planning of a scenario Chapter 5: Energy access initiatives and programs Key initiatives and programs and their achievements, lessons and challenges including various government, donor, and private sector initiatives such as national rural electrification programs, Lighting Africa, Lighting Asia, Africa Clean Cooking Energy Solutions, EAP Clean Stove Initiative, ESMAP SE4ALL Technical Assistance Program (S-TAP), Energizing Development Programme (GIZ), the Energy Access Practitioners Network, and the Global Alliance for Clean Cookstoves (GACC). Various country action programs and high impact opportunity (HIO) initiatives under SE4ALL will also be covered. Chapter 6: Impact Assessment of Energy Access This chapter purports to highlight the impacts energy access programs (in conjunction with other contributing factors) may have had on people s lives in terms of economic improvements, productivity, quality of life including health, education, community welfare, gender mainstreaming, etc. An evidence gathering exercise will be undertaken using a retrospective evaluation approach for at least four programs. Varied experiences and contexts across geographies would be considered for cross-cutting analyses and lessons across different dimensions of impact. In this regard, countries and interventions where impact evaluations do not exist or do not address certain dimensions of impact would provide a diverse portfolio of candidates for impact evaluations. Broadly, the following selection criteria will be considered as programs and interventions are screened for potential studies: Represent specific typologies. For instance, o At least two evaluations in the electricity sector and two from the cooking sector o Electricity: A grid and an off-grid program o Cooking: A stove and a fuel supply program The associated IE will fill gaps in evidence across geographies - geographical representation across different regions, but with global relevance The associated IE can be designed to fill gaps in evidence across dimensions of impact Program is innovative and replicable Involves substantial resource allocations and has well-defined interventions Sufficiently advanced or completed implementation with discernible impacts and robust data availability (for Retrospective IE) Ongoing interventions with potential to combine Prospective and Retrospective analysis. Has project/intervention team/implementer/stakeholder buy-in and commitment to support the IE 4
Chapter 7: Emerging Landscape The report will conclude with a summary of key messages from the status review, a look at the prospect of reaching the SE4ALL energy access goal by 2030, and priorities for action moving forward. Emerging insights, good practices, and lessons learned will be drawn to aid the adoption and implementation of effective practices for promoting energy access under SE4ALL, and their implications for different stakeholders: country governments, private sector, civil society, SE4ALL and global development community, etc. 5