The future: Megatrends and people Jesper Bo Jensen, ph.d. Futurist Centre for Future Studies http://uk.fremforsk.dk/
Cities in the future The interweaved city a mixture of functions The company without office space The new nomads travelling from oasis to oasis The work day and leisure day as a long fractal route
The networked person: The new nomads Observed in airport lounges, on fast inner-city trains and motorway service station always on the move Juggling with a laptop computer, a smartphone and a mega size ipad In touch with people, he or she do no longer regularly bump into in a corridor Take decisions all the time guided by the knowledge base they have access to
New era new Zeistgeist: Futurisme From Retro knitting, baking, growing your own herbs and vegetables since 2008 To Futurisme: New thinking and perspective New optimism Belief in the future New digital structures and new technology will give growth and prosperity in society and in companies in the future
Population in cities or suburban areas in billions 1970 1990 2005 2015 2030 World 1.160 2.280 3.170 3.860 4.990 Asia 480 1.010 1.550 1.980 2.660 China 144 320 530 690 870 US 170 210 270 300 350 Europe 410 520 530 540 550
Moore than 7 billion people
Africa US India China Vietnam Thailand EU (East) Turkey Mexico East-Afrika The new middle classes approx. 2,5 billions
The growing Global Middle Class 2030 Source : OECD Homi Kharas
Revitalizing cities Gentrification old city centers and old industrial quarters being changed to attractive city appartments for young urban professionals Manhattan, Brooklyn, Berlin, London, Lyon, Copenhagen, Stockholm, Oslo..etc Young families tend to stay in the city with their children becoming a part of the revival process of modern bigger cities Infrastructural renewal of water supply, heating and sewers New tendency: Revitalizing the suburban centers
Wearables already i many forms and shapes
Self driving Trucks and Lorries 75% of all vehicles automatic in 2040 (Wired)
The digital revolution version 3.0 We are in the middle of a real digital revolution that changes the way we work, produce and communicate in a new digital society Digital structure and software has become a basic part of peoples lives and public and privates companies A essential infrastructure in daily life like water and electricity Your chances of succeeding depends very much on your digital capacity
New Technology Three steps A: Doing the old in at new way Combustion engine instead of a steam engine Computers calculating large mathematic formulas B: Doing something new that was prior not possible Word processers, PC, spreadsheet, photos, the Internet, video, automation, production robots C: Society change Suburbs, New distribution of the manufacturing process, Globalization Robots artificial intelligence, 3D printers, New ways of manufacturing
THE PRICE OF OIL Dependency of uconventional oil and shale gas
The world population: Changing shape
The world economy will continue to grow
World Trade grows faster than World GNP Sources: MIRAGE database / World Bank database, UNCTAD, IMF WEO database
New criticism r > g The rate of return on capital is generally higher than the rate of economic growth Capital is built on more than a decade of research by Mr Piketty. The evolution of inequality since the beginning of the industrial revolution. Private wealth dwarfed national income. Only the chaos of the first and second world wars and the Depression disrupted this pattern. But the shocks of the early 20th century have faded and wealth is now reasserting itself.
Recycling and cradle to cradle Coming to a city near you! Green roofs and green walls But the real interesting idea is the reuse of buildings be reusing all the materials from a demolished building Concrete is not CO2 neutral so reuse can green the image of concrete It makes the building process in inner cities more demanding and complicated
WHO EATS WHO? Listen to Darwin: Survival of the Fittest Size is not important and it is not always good to be fast Managers plays a vital role in keeping the company fit
uk.fremforsk.dk Jesper Bo Jensen Fremforsk - centre for future studies Balticagade 15, st. th. 8000 Århus C E jbj@fremforsk.dk T 86 11 47 44 M 20 67 45 00