EPO, SCENARIOS FOR THE FUTURE, 2007 15.Dec.2009 Tanaka lab. M1 Minoru Masujima 2009/12/15 Page 1
Outline ~EPO, SCENARIOS FOR THE FUTURE, 2007~ 1. Background of this report 2. 4 scenarios 3. My Consideration 2009/12/15 Page 2
~EPO, SCENARIOS FOR THE FUTURE, 2007~ EPO, SCENARIOS FOR THE FUTURE, 2007 These scenarios draws the IP world of 2025. the course of 2 years project 150 key players interview These scenarios were developed in a series of workshops. These scenarios are not drawing of the answer beforehand. The purpose of these scenarios are to offer the policy a correct question. EPO hopes to be discussed actively all over the world based on this report. 2009/12/15 Page 3 The focal questions which these scenarios seek to answer are: How might IP world evolve by 2025? What global legitimacy might such IP world have?
4 scenarios is ~EPO, SCENARIOS FOR THE FUTURE, 2007~ Business as dominant driver Society as dominant driver Geopolitics as dominant driver Technology as dominant driver 2009/12/15 Page 4
~EPO, SCENARIOS FOR THE FUTURE, 2007~ - Business is is the the dominant driver driver - - 2010 2011 2019 2020 2021 2 major steps to harmonisation. The Asian Patent office adopted English for filings. JPO announced an extended automatic translation system. started to quote the IP300 Index as a key market index replacing the. and patent systems merged. became the leader of a Pacific Rim group. This group shared information, methodology and language. joined this group to become the global patent family. The competitive condition became equal by a global patent system. The global market had an appropriate tool of IPR management. 2009/12/15 Page 5
The IP world in 2025 in ~EPO, SCENARIOS FOR THE FUTURE, 2007~ The IPR system is used as a commodity to be used and developed. The object of IP expands and more players enter the IP system. Licensing is a huge business. Patents are widely used as a financial tool. The key to the IP success changed into finance and the business skill from the technology. The volumes of patent applications are increasing. The rationalization of the IP system is hoped. The pressure of the harmonization rises from the industrial world. A single filing, one patent system is still not achievable by a political reason. The IPR is more widely recognised as a tradable product around the world. 2009/12/15 Page 6
~EPO, SCENARIOS FOR THE FUTURE, 2007~ 2009 2018 - Geopolitics - is the dominant driver - - The changes of geopolitical balances strike today s dominant players. economy slowed down suddenly. A big new comer - - has increased influence in the international institution (WTO etc.). Asian countries were increasingly integrated. innovative capacity grew, rather than are feared. They wanted closer relationships with their geographic neighbor. TAFTA treaty was signed. (Trans-Atlantic Free Trade Area) Only the highest standards products would be admitted to 2020 Asian countries opposed TAFTA, and made ASAFTA. ASAFTA (Asian-South American Free Trade Area) Including TRIPS, the age of multilateral trade agreements ended. 2009/12/15 Page 7
The IP world in 2025 in Patent protection is ignored due to the economic downturn. Enforcement of IPR becomes difficult. They try to alternative protection mechanisms. TAFTA The trade and IP systems fragmented into two blocks. ASAFTA ~EPO, SCENARIOS FOR THE FUTURE, 2007~ They use patents with their large research base and innovative industries increasingly. They defend a strong global patent system. Global trade routes become split with high barriers between them. 2009/12/15 Page 8
~EPO, SCENARIOS FOR THE FUTURE, 2007~ Trees of - Society - is is the dominant driver -- The key players are popular movements opposed the current standard. 2009 2010 Many people were united based on the theme of access to knowledge and medicines. This A2K movement was recognized more widely. A2K The open source movement had started in the software sector, and rapidly gained influence in other areas. ( biotechnology, agriculture and environmental technologies ) 2012 The flu pandemic arose. It spread rapidly all over the world. And Then, the vaccine development was delayed several months because of the patent. this pandemic killed nearly 20 million people in a few months. Demonstrations with slogans like Patents kill took place all over the world. Most countries were finally led to the restriction of patenting in many technical fields. 2009/12/15 Page 9
~EPO, SCENARIOS FOR THE FUTURE, 2007~ The IP world in 2025 in Patents have been stopped in most technical fields worldwide. Copyright has been reformed that sharing information is the standard. Open source, creative commons and science commons are the standard forms. In business market, First-mover advantage and customer relationship management are the most important for the successful. The lack of a profit motive has reduced innovation levels. The use of secrecy to protect innovation is increased. The innovation speed has slowed. 2009/12/15 Page 10
~EPO, SCENARIOS FOR THE FUTURE, 2007~ 2009 2013 - Technology is is the the dominant driver driver - - The key players are engineer. The IP needs of new technologies come into conflict with the old one. set a new goal to develop the best greenhouse technologies and dominate new environmental markets. The ambition was both clear and admirable. Business could grow through rapid technological developments to clean energy and reduce greenhouse gases. proposed it to imitate the Japanese experiment by 'soft IP' rule concerning the technologies. soft IP was accepted in Europe for several complex energy technologies. European companies began to expand their inventions for carbon markets. took a similar approach for the development of a hydrogen-based transport system. 2009/12/15 Page 11
The Journey from 2020 to 2025 ~EPO, SCENARIOS FOR THE FUTURE, 2007~ 2020 The new technologies were being applied around the world; energy conservation, clean fossil fuels and renewable energy production. By the success of soft IP systems in, the expansion of a similar rule was demanded to cover a complex technological area of other industries. 2023 Without warning on a certain day, all traffic stopped all over the world. For a week, there was total chaos. This crisis returned people to a simpler type of communications and work. Many found it refreshing. Perhaps complexity was not progress. There was a method that was simpler to do a lot. 2009/12/15 Page 12
The IP world in 2025 in ~EPO, SCENARIOS FOR THE FUTURE, 2007~ Patent offices today can adapt quickly to technological change. Especially, the examination of the patent application has changed quickly. The Information and the ideas are shared with the ICT tool between IP institutions. Computer translations are available from and into almost any language. Translation costs have dropped to a very cheap level. The kind of IP available has evolved. The patent system relies on technology, and new forms of knowledge classification emerge. New soft IP use other new forms of IP protection. The former patent still applies to classic technologies. For complex technologies, soft IP and the open source approach co-exist and support a collaborative innovation process. 2009/12/15 Page 13
My Consideration ~EPO, SCENARIOS FOR THE FUTURE, 2007~ Which scenario is best? Any scenario have both merits and demerits. All are very extreme. For EPO, seem the best scenario among 4 ones. The worst scenario is. EPO might start leading the world to. EPO might already constructed the strategy that achieves. I think that the situation which exists in background of and is a chance, and the situation which exists in background of and is a threat. We should construct the strategy that obtains chance and excludes threat. 2009/12/15 Page 14
Reference EPO, SCENARIOS FOR THE FUTURE, 2007 http://www.epo.org/topics/patent-system/scenarios-for-the-future.html Thank you.