EDB Sonoma County Economic Development Board economy 2010-11 City of Rohnert Park : Local Economic Report E c o n o m i c D e v e l o p m e n t B o a r d 4 0 1 C o l l e g e Av e n u e S u i t e D S a n ta R o s a C A 9 5 4 0 1 ( 7 0 7 ) 5 6 5-7 1 7 0
Table of Contents 1 Letter & Highlights 2 Population & Employment 3 Projections 4 Residential Real Estate 5 Commercial Real Estate 6 Consumer Spending & Taxable Sales 7 Education 8 Sponsors Page
City of 2010 Rohnert Park: Local Economic Report September 2010 The Sonoma County Economic Development Board (EDB), in partnership with the Sonoma County Workforce Investment Board, is pleased to bring you the 2010 City of Rohnert Park Local Economic Report. Highlights from this Local Economic Report include: Between 2000 and 2009, median household income in Rohnert Park increased 27%; however, considering inflation, the median-household income in real dollars increased only 2%. Between 2009 and 2014, median household incomes are projected to climb an additional 5% nominally, to just below $70,000. Residential housing vacancy rates have been increasing in Rohnert Park. Up from 2% in 2000, 4.6% of housing was vacant in 2009. Five-year projections expect the vacancy rate to remain near 5%. Offce and retail vacancy rates in Rohnert Park are also projected to remain high. As of Q1 2010, more than 43% of offce space and 10% of retail space in Rohnert Park was vacant. The Rohnert Park economy is expected to track Sonoma County s performance. Improvements in the labor market will lag improvements in its core industries. Thank you for your continued interest in the EDB reports. As always, if you have any questions, please feel free to contact us at (707) 565-7170. Sincerely, Ben Stone Executive Director 2010 Sonoma County Economic Development Board. The Economic Development Board (EDB) believes all data contained within this report to be accurate and the most current available, but the EDB does not guarantee that this report is accurate or complete. This report was prepared by Keith Butts and Greg Smith.
Population & Employment The City of Rohnert Park's seasonally unadjusted unemployment rate was 10.2% for the second quarter of 2010, just below the county average over the same quarter. Rohnert Park s unemployment is up considerably from the second quarter of 2009 when the unemployment rate registered 9.6%. While Rohnert Park s unemployment has surpassed the national rate, it remains below that of Sonoma County and California. During the past decade, the population of Rohnert Park continued to increase, though at a considerably slower rate than it did during the 1990s. Between 2000 and 2008, the population increased by roughly 1,000 residents. In the first quarter of 2010, total employment in Rohnert Park reached its lowest level in 10 years. At 22,100, the number of jobs in Rohnert Park is down 10.5% from its peak in October of 2007. Moody s Economy.com has predicted that Sonoma County s employment should continue to face challenges into the first half of 2010, but then start seeing improvement. This could be a positive sign for Rohnert Park s employment profile, which has largely mirrored that of Sonoma County over the past decade. City of Rohnert Park Population 45,000 % Unemployed Rohnert Park Seasonally Unadjusted Unemployment Rate 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% June 2010: 10.3% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: California Employment Development Department (www.edd.ca.gov) Rohnert Park Seasonally U nadjusted Non-Farm Employment (Thousands) 25 Thousands of Residents 43,000 41,000 39,000 37,000 2009: 43,057 35,000 '90'91'92'93'94'95'96'97'98'99'00'01'02'03'04'05'06'07'08'09 Source: California Dept. of Finance. Demographic Research Unit. (www.dof.ca.gov) U.S. Census Bureau (www.census.gov) & ESRI Market Profile (www.esri.com) 24 23 22 21 20 2 Mar 2010: 22,100 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: California Employment Development Department (www.edd.ca.gov)
Population & Income Projection The population of Rohnert Park is expected to remain level over the next five years. While Sonoma County is expecting slightly higher growth during this period, Rohnert Park posted steady population growth over the past decade when the county was experiencing periods of out-migration. Between 2000 and 2009, median household incomes in Rohnert Park grew by 27%; however, considering inflation, the median household incomes increased 1.96% in real dollars. Over the next five years, the median-household income for Rohnert Park is expected to climb roughly 5% nominally, just shy of $70,000. As income in Rohnert Park rose during the past decade, the percentage of households earning less than $50,000 was reduced by over 10%. The percentage of middle-earning households ($50,000 to $100,000 per year) remained relative stable while households earning over $100,000 had the highest percentage growth. 50k 45k 40k 35k $70 $65 $60 Total Population City of Rohnert Park 2009: 43,057 '00 '09 '14 Median Household Income City of Rohnert Park 2009: $66,489 2.0% Increase Since 2000 2014 Projection 43,260 27% Increase Since 2000 Over the next five years, the percentage of households in Rohnert Park earning between $75,000 and $100,000 is expected to increase by 5 percentage points. Percentages in most other household income brackets are expected to remain relatively unchanged. $55 $50 $45 '00 '09 '14 5% Projected 5-year Increase 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% Households By Income, City of Rohnert Park 2009, 2014 Source ALL: ESRI Business Analyst (www.esri.com) 2000 2009 2014 5% 0% <$15,000 $15,000-$24,999 $ 25,000-$34,999 $35,000-$49,999 $ 50,000-$74,999 $75,000-$99,999 $100,000-$149,999 $ 150,000-$199,999 $200,000+ 3
Residential Real Estate Rohnert Park s median home price decreased roughly $60,000, or 19% on a year-over basis between 2008 and 2009. This is the fourth consecutive year of decline after nearly a decade s worth of strong price advances. Housing affordability levels are near their highest levels in over two decades. The total number of homes sold in Rohnert Park has been increasing since it reached a low in 2007. In a recent report by Moody s Economy.com, the price drops across Sonoma County have been fueling house sales. The average sale price of homes in Rohnert Park and Cotati was just under $300,000, almost the least expensive area in Sonoma County. Cotati-Rohnert Park and North Santa Rosa had the greatest number of homes sold in the second quarter of 2010. Median Price of an Existing Home Sold In Rohnert Park ($ Thousands) $600 2009: $252,000 $500 $400 $300 26% Increase Since 1999 $200 51.1% $100 $0 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 1000 Total Number of Homes Sold Decrease Since 05 900 39.2% 800 700 2009: 582 Increase since sep 07 600 500 400 20.2% '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 Increase Since sep 08 Average Sales Price ($ Thousands) and Total Sales by Sub-County Area, Q2 2010 $1000 Average Sales Price ($ Thousands) County Average Price ($ Thousands) Total Unit Sales (Right Axis) 250 $800 200 $600 150 $400 100 $200 50 $0 SW Santa Rosa Cotati/Rohnert Park NW Santa Rosa Russian River SE Santa Rosa Cloverdale Windsor Oakmont East Petaluma NE Santa Rosa West Petaluma Penngrove Sonoma Sebastopol C ostal Sonoma Sea Ranch Healdsburg 0 4
Real Estate & Construction 50% Rohnert Park Commercial Property Vacancy Rates Q1 2010 43.4% Retail 40% Offce The offce vacancy rate for Rohnert Park jumped 15.3 percentage points in Q4 2009 and climbed to 43.4% in Q1 2010. Petaluma and Rohnert Park have the offce highest vacancy rates in Sonoma County. Millions of Dollars 30% 20% 10% 0% 2007 2008 2009 Q1 2010: 11.6% Q1 2010: 10.8% 2010 Source: Keegan and Coppin Company, Inc. (www.keegancoppin.com) 10% 8% Rohnert Park and Sonoma County Residential Housing Vacancy Industrial 142% The industrial vacancy rate for Rohnert Park has been relatively stable over the past three years. Currently 11.6% of Rohnert Park s industrial space is vacant. Petaluma and Santa Rosa recorded the highest industrial vacancy rates in Sonoma County at 18.7% and 15.5% respectively for Q1 2010. Rohnert Park s retail vacancy rate, at 10.8% for Q1 2010, is higher than the county average (9%). This quarter represents the first quarter of decrease in the retail vacancy rate after five consecutively increasing quarters. Rohnert Park and Petaluma recorded the highest retail vacancy rates in the county. Rohnert Park residential vacancy rates remain well below the county average. Five-year projections see the rate remaining just under 5%. Increase Since 2000 6% 40.1% The value of building permits, which reflect 55.3% 4% 4.6% 4.7% Rohnert Park trends in construction activity, are at 10-year lows in Rohnert Park. Both residential and nonresidential construction are down considerably from 2% 1.9% Sonoma County their respective highs in 2005 and 2004. 0% '00 '09 '14 Residential Value of Residential & Non-residential Building Permits In Rohnert Park Non-residential ($Millions; Includes Alterations and Additions) $40 $35 $30 $25 2009: $1,676,000 $20 2009: $4,684,000 $15 $10 $5 $0 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 Source: Construction Industry Research Board (www.cirbdata.com) 5
Consumer Spending & Taxable Sales Rohnert Park Total Taxable Sales Taxable Sales in Rohnert Park has been in decline since 2006. All across Sonoma County, taxable sales have been falling. Sales have decreased 7.2% in Rohnert Park and 6.5% county-wide since 2007. $800 $700 2008 Total: $632,234,000 7.2% Compared to the national average, Rohnert Park residents spend considerably more per capita on housing, computers, education, and food away from home. They spend considerably less on apparel. Consumers biggest purchases cover general retail goods, shelter, food at home, and health care. $600 $500 $400 $300 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 Decrease Since 07 11.6% Increase Since 00 Source: California Board of Equalization (www.boe.ca.gov) 2009 City of Rohnert Park Consumer Spending by Commodity General Retail Goods $432,000,000 Shelter $285,000,000 Food at Home $79,000,000 Health Care $63,000,000 Food Away from Home $60,000,000 Entertainment & Recreation $57,000,000 Household Furnishings & Equip. $35,000,000 Travel $32,000,000 Apparel & Services $32,000,000 Investments $23,000,000 Education $23,000,000 TV, Video, & Sound Equipment $22,000,000 Vehicle Maintenance $16,000,000 Computers & Accessories $4,000,000 General Retail Goods Shelter Source: ESRI Business Analyst (www.esri.com) Food at Home Health Care Food Away from Home Entertainment & Recreation H.H. Furnishings & Equip. Travel Apparel & Services Investments Education TV, Video, & Sound Equipment Vehicle Maintenance Computers & Accessories 6
Education The National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) adjusted high school dropout rate for the Cotati- Rohnert Park Unified School District (9.8%) is below the state average (18.9%). Students identifying as Caucasian, which make up 63.8% of the district s student population, had a dropout rate of 8.3%. These rates do not reflect students transferred to alternative schools. There are fewer English learners in the Cotati-Rohnert Park School District than the Sonoma County average. The percentage of English learners has increased by nearly 80% over the past decade in Sonoma County, when in 2001, the percentage of English learners was just 15.1 percent. Compared to the State of California, Rohnert Park s percentage of English language learners is growing faster, but is still considerably below the state average of 24.2 percent. SAT scores for college-bound high school graduates in Cotati- Rohnert Park rank near the middle of Sonoma County school districts, but well above the state and national averages. Average Total SAT Scores by School District, 2008 1000 1250 1500 1750 2000 West Sonoma County Union Santa Rosa City Petaluma Joint Union Sonoma County Cotati-Rohnert Park Unified Healdsburg Unified Sonoma Valley Unified Windsor Unified U.S. 1664 1654 1604 1601 1584 1582 1568 1531 1511 West Sonoma County Union Petaluma Joint Union Cotati-Rohnert Park Unified Sonoma Valley Unified Adjusted NCES High School Dropout Rate, 2007-2008 Cloverdale Unified Windsor Unified Healdsburg Unified Santa Rosa City 6.1% 9.7% 9.8% 10.5% 11.4% 11.8% 16% 15.5% 16% *The NCES defines dropout as students who do not achieve a diploma or GED during their first four years of high school. Roseland Charter Healdsburg Unified Sonoma Valley Unified Cloverdale Unified Windsor Unified Cotati-Rohnert Park Unified Santa Rosa City English Learners By District 2008-2009 21.4% 17.7% 15.6% 25% 37.7% 32.9% 64.9% State 1500 Petaluma Joint Union 15.6% Cloverdale Unified Roseland Charter 1486 1194 West Sonoma County Union Source: ALL Educational Demographics Unit, CA Department of Education 3.3% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 7
EDB Sonoma County Economic Development Board With Acknowledgment and Appreciation to Local Key Businesses Supporting Sonoma County Economic Development: Director Executive Sponsor County of Sonoma General Services, Real Estate Division County of Sonoma Board of Supervisors Sonoma County Health Services Sonoma County Transportation & Public Works