U.S. National Space Policy Opportunities and Challenges in Shaping the International Space Regime AIAA Space 2007 Long Beach, California 18 September 2007 0 9/18/2007 Dana J. Johnson, Ph.D. Senior Analyst, Northrop Grumman Analysis Center Arlington, Virginia
Overview Space policy s 50-year foundation: Will it serve us well in the next 50 years? Foundational elements of U.S. space policy Emerging security trends and issues shaping U.S. space policy goals and objectives Example: Global change and environment Opportunities and challenges to shape the international space regime 1 9/18/2007
Foundational Elements of U.S. Space Policy Have Remained Fairly Constant Over Time Preservation and advancement of national interests through exploration and use of space inherent right of self-defense Commitment to principle of exploration and use of space by all nations for peaceful purposes and for benefit of all mankind Rejection of territorial claims over space or celestial bodies, or of limitations on data acquisition from space Space systems are national property and have right of passage/ operations without interference International space cooperation for scientific, political, economic, or national security benefits Encouragement of commercial use/exploitation of space technologies/systems for national economic benefit 2 9/18/2007
Other Focusing Events and Factors Shape U.S. Space Policy As Well Example focusing events Sputnik Moon landing 9-11 U-2 shoot-down First Gulf War Chinese ASAT test Other shaping factors: Compelling human urge to explore and discover (President s Science Advisory Committee, 1958) National prestige and stature Global recognition of importance of minimizing orbital debris Renewed consideration urgency of need to protect critical space assets and infrastructure Improving economic competitiveness through space programs Preserving and enhancing the aerospace industrial base and workforce International efforts to protect environment 3 9/18/2007
Near-Term Challenges Posing Far-Term Catastrophes? WMD and global terrorism Islamic extremism Emerging democracies and failing states Multi-regional crises and insecurity Evolving relationships with Russia and China Pandemic diseases Energy and natural resource scarcity Global change environmental challenges How/whether U.S. space policy addresses these challenges will be scrutinized by the international community 4 9/18/2007
Environmental Disasters Cause Overwhelming Impacts to Ecosystems and Society $250 $2 5 9/18/2007
Environmental Security Is National Security Richard Clarke s Threat List (December 2006) Global Warming Russian Revanchism Latin American Leftist Lurch Africa at War Arms Control Freeze Transnational Crime Pakistan-Afghan Border A Climate or Weather event can severely exacerbate or accelerate any number of global threats Potential Impact: New directions for U.S. space policy? 6 9/18/2007
Environment, Economy, and Security Depend Upon Global Change Information Weather & Climate Impacts ~1/3 of the Nation s GDP >$4 Trillion Annually Many military operations do not proceed without good 7 theater 9/18/2007 weather information
A Long Pole in the U.S. Space Policy Tent No enterprise approach to managing/optimizing space asset use to deal with needs for global information Space policy could include section focusing on space s capacity to contribute to U.S. interests in global information infrastructure Other nations follow pragmatic policy approaches to considering space as a critical component of sustaining economic and environmental security U.S. policy could be forward-leaning, to provide leadership, a focus for investment, and sustainment of competitive advantage 8 9/18/2007
Policy Provides Guidance for Effective Response to Cross-Sector Issues Like Global Change Third GEO Plenary Session, Bonn Germany 71 member countries + European Commission, and 46 Participating Organizations 15 member agencies + 3 White House offices 9 9/18/2007 Other GEO Members Participating
Choices of Space Policy Language, Tone, and Topics Can Influence Others Actions Space policy topics receiving particular emphasis may signal: Potential shifts in balance U.S. intent Language and tone can influence other states confidence in: Engaging with U.S. on cooperative space ventures Shaping their own space decisions and investments 10 9/18/2007
Opportunities and Challenges to Shape the International Space Regime U.S.-developed set of societal benefits of an integrated global Earth observing system: Improve weather forecasting Reduce loss of life and property from disasters Protect and monitor our ocean resource Understand, assess, predict, mitigate, and adapt to climate variability and change Support sustainable agriculture and forestry, and combat land degradation Understand the effect of environmental factors on human health and well-being Develop the capacity to make ecological forecasts Protect and monitor water resources Monitor and manage energy resources U.S. national and economic security interests warrant maintaining an independent, global Earth observation capacity policy can provide the appropriate guidance and signals 11 9/18/2007
Implications for Future U.S. Space Policy Space policy s 50-year foundation: Will it serve us well in the next 50 years? Space policy can help identify common/shared interests, values, and objectives Among agencies and other domestic organizations Across borders, among countries with different space capabilities, technologies, and cultures Space policy can help shape responses to shared security threats U.S. space policy s foundation is solid but must be sufficiently flexible to: Adapt to global change and unforeseen events Proactively demonstrate global leadership and collaboration Provide foundation for national security and economic competitiveness 12 9/18/2007