Outcomes and Implications of the Bali Climate Change Conference: A Few Personal Reflections Prof. Hironori Hamanaka Chair, Board of Directors Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES) 1
Changing Landscapes (1) 1995 (COP1) Limited knowledge of economics of climate change (IPCC Second AR) Limited attention outside IPCC Lack of urgency Limited concern by the general public, media and the private sector 2007 (COP13) More detailed knowledge on costs of action and inaction (IPCC AR4, Stern Review) High attention outside IPCC and UNFCCC (UNSC, UNGA, MEM, G8, APEC, EAS, Davos Forum etc.) Links to security & stability; High sense of urgency; Growing concern on climate impacts by the general public and media; 2
Changing Landscapes (2) 1995 (COP1) Limited private sector involvement Very few think tanks, NGOs and academia at COPs Very few informal dialogues Relatively less informed climate negotiators Less confidence among stakeholders 2007 (COP13) Growing private sector involvement Many think tanks and NGOs; More participants than negotiators; More side events than negotiating sessions; Many informal dialogues by both governments and RINGOs (IISD, IGES, etc.); Increasing role for ENGOs & BINGOs More informed negotiators; Growing confidence among stakeholders 3
The Bali Accomplishments (1) Bali accomplished what it was meant to: Setting an agenda for negotiations with a roadmap and a firm deadline A shared vision with long-term goals An inclusive process characterized by Perceptible change in the position of USA Dramatic change in the position and tone of developing countries Greater breadth, depth & balance in issue coverage 4
The Bali Accomplishments (2) Wide range of mitigation commitments or actions Adaptation moved toward centre stage New consensus and commitment to early action on deforestation Strategic programme for technology Improved understanding of financial & investment needs Encouraging signals to carbon markets Kyoto-track negotiations - Targets for Annex 1 (25-40% reduction by 2020) are still on the table 5
The Bali Concerns (1) Inclusive process came at the expense of losing specificity IPCC findings on 2020 targets for developed countries relegated to a footnote Implied action by all but no specific details No comprehensive post-2012 mandate Continuing reservations from the US Strategic programme on technology - no firm commitments on its funding 6
The Bali Concerns (2) Limited discussion on market mechanisms Eligibility of CCS for CDM remains unresolved No consensus on destruction of HFC23 in new facilities Strong political will and institutionalization procedures are still missing Lack of clarity on sectoral approaches, policy-based agreements, etc. Discussion on adaptation funding may be rhetoric REDD - several technical and policy challenges remain 7
Implications for the Future Negotiations Growing confidence among developing countries Procedural improvements to market mechanisms Broader range of commitments or actions Policy-based agreements Sectoral agreements in carbon-intensive industries Private sector to play a more critical role More proactive role of NGOs, media and academia Recognition of synergies with processes outside the UNFCCC 8
Challenges for the Future Negotiations Short timeline and complex negotiations Much more complex language than in 1995 Long discussions likely on verifiable, measurable, reportable, and comparable commitments or actions Two-track negotiation: a burden on negotiators Limited progress in the Protocol track may lead to more frustration in the Convention track & vice versa. Discussions on adaptation, REDD and technology transfer may turn into rhetoric The huge North-South divide, the growing complexity of issues, and the wide range of actors and interests to be affected challenging process. 9
Pointers for Progress Each country may need to prepare a road map in line with Bali Action Plan. Clarity of commitments or actions, and strong political will from all parties are essential. Recognition of differing national circumstances and abilities to take on different types of commitments or actions will be central to negotiations. Mechanisms to decouple economic growth and GHG emissions in developing countries are crucial. Initiatives outside UNFCCC and regional climate partnerships can play a complementary role. 10
Cool Earth Promotion Programme Announced by Japan s Prime Minister Fukuda at Davos, in January 2008 Climate change will be a top priority issue for the G8 Hokkaido Toyako Summit 11
Cool Earth Promotion Programme Post-Kyoto framework Global GHG emissions to peak in the next 10 to 20 years and be reduced by at least half by 2050 Create a mechanism for inclusive process in which all major emitters participate Setting a quantified national emissions reductions target based on a bottom-up approach by compiling on sectoral basis energy efficiency, and tallying up reductions that would be achieved based on the technology to be in use in subsequent years 12
Cool Earth Promotion Programme International environmental cooperation Setting a global target of 30% improvement in energy efficiency by 2020 Establishing a new financial mechanism on the scale of US$10 billion Creating a new multilateral fund together with US and UK Innovation Investing approximately US$30 billion in technology R&D over the next 5 years Developing a framework for international collaboration on technology R&D 13
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