Hello James Cridland, Radio Futurologist @jamescridland facebook.com/radiofuturologist Image: Pulse FM Ltd Images: Virgin Radio, BBC News, The Guardian Video: CNBC Asia Virgin Radio Ltd
British Broadcasting Corporation Radio Futurologist (n) A writer, speaker, and consultant who works with broadcasters in Asia, Australia, Europe and North America to help them innovate and retain audience Images: BBC, UK Radioplayer Today Trends in radio s future from across the world Some graphs A few acronyms Radio has no future. - Lord Kelvin, 1899
Radio has no future. Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible. X-rays will prove to be a hoax. - Lord Kelvin, 1899 Photo: Novak Archive, 1934 Photo: 1949, Flickr: bigduck
Photo: WIRED, March 2005 Glassford Graveyard, Jared Earle
Radio is still massive UK 90.0% tune in each week RAJAR Q4/2015 Adults 15+ Brisbane 92.7% GfK, Survey 1, 2016 Adults 10+ Canada 88.1% Numeris, 2015 Adults 12+, 0500-0100 USA 93.0% Neilsen Total Audience Report Q1 2015 Adults 12+ Peninsular Malaysia 97.0% GfK, RAM Wave 2, 2016 Adults 10+ Data: weekly listeners to radio in above markets: reach/cume Tell people about this number UK - Share of Audio 2.0% Catchup radio 97.0% 6.1% Spotify, etc 2.0% Podcasts 75.8% Live radio (AM/FM, DAB, IP) 5.1% CDs 1.0% Cassette and vinyl of Malaysians listen to the radio every week Data: Peninsular Malaysia; GfK, RAM Wave 2, 2016 Adults 10+ 8.1% MP3s, etc Data: RAJAR Midas research, summer 2016
US - Share of Ear Australia - Share of Audio 61% Live radio (AM/FM SiriusXM & IP) 15% Streaming Audio (Spotify, Pandora, etc) 2% Podcasts 68% Live radio (AM/FM DAB+ & IP) 10% Streaming Audio (Spotify, Pandora, etc) 4% 2% Podcasts TV Music Channels 5% TV Music Channels 14% Owned files: CDs, MP3s, etc Data: Edison Research Share of Ear, Spring 2016 - some categories merged 16% 1% Other Owned files: CDs, MP3s, etc Data: Commercial Radio Australia October 2016 - some categories merged 3% Other Radio: a shared experience a human connection
Radio is going multiplatform The way we listen to radio is changing Photo: Wikimedia Commons UK radio is going multi-platform FM or AM 54.7% share of listening Online and apps 8% Digital Television 5.1% DAB Digital Radio 32.2% Total hours / TSL using DAB TV Internet Source: RAJAR/Ipsos MORI/RSMB Q2/2016 Source: RA JAR Q4/2011 - %age of total hours / TSL, excluding unknown platforms
Norway - switching off FM in 2017 75% 50% 25% DAB+ FM Internet DTV Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 radio.no Source: TNS Gallup - total hours as a percentage of radio listening Pop-up radio and being cleverer with content
Analogue and digital Digital-only UK: A set of additional, low-cost digital radio stations from existing commercial broadcaster to grow brand and appeal #
DIFFERENT MUSIC, SAME PRESENTER SINGLE SONG POSITIONS 118% LIVE LINK 3 48 4 50 BEATLES ACROSS THE UNIVERSE TOM ROBINSON 2-4-6-8 MOTORWAY THE CURE - LOVECATS OASIS LIVE FOREVER LIVE LINK ROLLING STONES TEMPTATIONS BALL THE LAST TIME OF CONFUSION DAVID BOWIE STAR MAN A-HA THE SUN ALWAYS SHINES ON TV KASABIAN EEZ-EH Total hours listened New digital brands Main station BLUR - PARKLIFE KLF WHAT TIME IS LOVE FEEDER BUCK ROGERS STEPPENWOLF BORN TO BE WILD BEYONCE CRAZY IN LOVE JIMI HENDRIX ALL ALONG THE WATCHTOWER Q4 2009 Q4 2010 Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013 Q4 2014 Q4 2015 resulting in twice the airtime to sell, and the UK s biggest digital-only commercial radio station Source: RA JAR/Ipsos MORI/RSMB - total UK hours
The way we make radio is changing 1974: Millions of dollars for new radio studios 2009: Virtual radio stations, with shared studios, playout systems and lots of hardware 2010: Mixing, playout and transmission all in one suitcase
james@cridland.net 2013: Playout, processing and encoding all in one computer 2014: Playout and transmission using one smartphone, one transmitter, and one bucket 2020: Playout, processing and encoding in millions of computers?
First: latest national and local newscast Then into reports (from both), with as-live cues App plays more stories it thinks you ll like Tweaking NPR s algorithms have more than doubled time-spent-listening in the app Data from this app is being used to help journalists write better cues Atomisation - stripping radio programmes into individual component parts, with metadata This app is making better radio for everyone
Lego-bricking Lego-bricking An opportunity to rethink the way we produce some of our radio stations: to re-examine the primacy of live, and produce a genuinely connected-first radio service that offers personalisation and production savings On-demand aka: Is there an alternative to the program grid? and archives
UK: On-demand versus live - total time spent listening 2.9% on-demand radio and podcasts 97.1% of total time spent listening is to live radio Data: UK - Rajar Midas Survey Summer 2016 Data: RA JAR/IpsosMori MIDAS Spring 2016 Photo: Lyrics and microphone, Marcos Fernandes Diaz
Method used most often to listen to podcasts 23% Download manually to listen later 100 million downloads so far 59% Click and listen immediately 15% Subscribe and download automatically to listen later 3% Don t know Source: Edison Research, Spring 2016 Visualising radio
Don t believe the doomsayers: radio continues to be in great shape The way we tune into radio is changing: this gives opportunities for broadcasters and clients The way we make radio is changing: time to rethink how we make radio to best exploit all platforms, not just FM/DAB+; and rethink about the primacy of live radio With new platforms, there are more opportunities than ever for clients and for audiences alike Content What is the future of radio? Technology User experience
Get my future of radio newsletter: http://james.crid.land Twitter @jamescridland Email Photo: JC Hancock, Flickr