Do More! Do Things That Were Previously Impossible! Tim O Reilly @timoreilly wtfeconomy.com
In 1625, they thought California was an island
In 2005, we thought the connected taxicab looked like this
In 2017, we think AI and robots will put Will there really be nothing left for people to do? people out of work.
When Amazon added 45,000 robots, they added 250,000 human workers
Jeff Bezos calls this the flywheel
This is the master design pattern for applying technology: Do more. Do things that were previously unimaginable.
Framing blindness
We have to draw a new map of the world
Gradually, and then suddenly.
Gradually, then suddenly 1. The world is becoming digital 2. Artificial Intelligence and algorithmic systems are everywhere 3. We are creating new kinds of partnerships between machines and humans
The coming robots are not autonomous
Don t just recreate what went before. Rethink business models, workflows and processes!
A business model is the way that all of the parts of a business work together to create competitive advantage and customer value. - Dan and Meredith Beam
Why simply adding an app doesn t change the game for taxis
A Business Model Map of Uber Magical user experience realizing the power of networked sensors Replacing ownership with access A platform, not just a company An algorithmic matching marketplace Cognitively augmented workers
A Business Model Map of Southwest Airlines
Who Do You Want Your Customers to Become? Henry Ford didn t just rethink the automobile and the factory, he rethought the work week, and the reasons why people might want to drive. Uber and Lyft, Airbnb, Amazon, Google, Facebook, and Apple are all changing who we are and what we expect.
Markets are outcomes. You have to design them. A service like Uber or Lyft or Airbnb or, for that matter, Google or Facebook is a matching marketplace.
How are you going to augment your workers?
Amazon warehouse worker
A matching marketplace has to work for all of its participants, not just for users or for the marketplace owner
Lyft vs Uber Market Share
O Reilly s Platform-Centered Learning Ecosystem Our ecosystem integrates the physical and digital worlds making learning possible when and in the ways our learners want most. Conferences/ Foo Camps Cutting-edge idea forum Networking forum Workshops? Immersions? Retreats? Podcasts? Expert Network Safari (learning platform) Live training Immersive learning experiences with like-minded professionals Digital platform for on-demand learning as well as synchronous online learning experiences. Books Physical books for reference and learning (available through resellers like Amazon, B&N)
If the students we are training today are going to live to be 120 years old, and their careers are likely to span 90 years, but their training will only make them competitive for 10 years, then we have a problem. Jeffrey Bleich, Former US ambassador to Australia Chair of the Fulbright scholarship board
We are developing new kinds of partnerships between human and machine
My grandfather wouldn t recognize what I do as work. -Hal Varian
A new kind of management It s the difference between playing Caesar (deciding which projects live and die), and playing the scientist (being perpetually open to search and discovery.) - Eric Ries, The Startup Way
Algorithmic systems all have an objective function Uber and Lyft: Pick up time Google: Relevance Facebook: engagement Scheduling systems used by Walmart, the Gap, or McDonalds: reduce employee labor costs and benefits
Like the djinn of Arabian mythology, our digital djinn do exactly what we tell them to do
AI is the most serious threat to the survival of the human race Elon Musk
The runaway objective function Even robots with a seemingly benign task could indifferently harm us. Let s say you create a self-improving A.I. to pick strawberries, Musk said, and it gets better and better at picking strawberries and picks more and more and it is self-improving, so all it really wants to do is pick strawberries. So then it would have all the world be strawberry fields. Strawberry fields forever. No room for human beings. Elon Musk, quoted in Vanity Fair https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2017/03/elon-muskbillion-dollar-crusade-to-stop-ai-space-x
The Equinix NY4 data center, where trillions of dollars change hands
We didn t mean to increase inequality and gut our economy The Social Responsibility of Business Is to Increase Its Profits Milton Friedman, 1970
Divergence of productivity and real median family income in the US
The art of debugging is figuring out what you really told your program to do rather than what you thought you told it to do. Andrew Singer Andrew Singer
It isn t technology that wants to eliminate jobs Prosperity in human societies is best understood as the accumulation of solutions to human problems. We won t run out of work until we run out of problems. Nick Hanauer
Imagine A world where the fruits of machine productivity are not allocated to a few, but shared by all
Imagine We put people to work tackling the world s greatest problems We treat humans as assets, not liabilities We create an economy based on caring and creativity, while machines focus on repetitive tasks We apply on-demand marketplace models to healthcare and education We augment community health workers with telemedicine and AI We all have access to knowledge on demand, whenever we need it We have fresh approaches to public policy based on what is possible now, rather than picking from the same tired menus
WTF??!! Amazement or Dismay wtfeconomy.com
How is work changing? What does technology now make possible that was previously impossible? What work needs doing? How do we make the world prosperous for all? Why aren t we doing it? wtfeconomy.com
What s the Future? It s Up To us wtfeconomy.com