ADX Energy. Investor Update. For personal use only. Recent Progress and Immediate Opportunities. Ian Tchacos - Executive Chairman 8 November 2016

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Transcription:

ADX Energy Investor Update Recent Progress and Immediate Opportunities Ian Tchacos - Executive Chairman 8 November 2016 www.adx-energy.com 1

DISCLAIMER This document has been prepared by ADX Energy Ltd for the purpose of providing an activity update to interested analysts/investors and shareholders. Any statements, opinions, projections, forecasts or other material contained in this document do not constitute any commitments, representations or warranties by ADX Energy Ltd or its directors, agents and employees. Except as required by law, and only to the extent so required, directors, agents and employees of ADX Energy Ltd shall in no way be liable to any person or body for any loss, claim, demand, damages, costs or expenses of whatsoever nature arising in any way out of, or in connection with, the information contained in this document. This document includes certain statements, opinions, projections, forecasts and other material, which reflect various assumptions. The assumptions may or may not prove to be correct. ADX Energy Ltd recommends that potential investors consult their professional advisor/s as an investment in the company is considered to be speculative in nature. CONTINGENT RESOURCES & DEFINITIONS Tunisia: Refer to ASX announcements 26/9/2012 (contingent) and 6/9/2013 (prospective). Italy: Refer to ASX announcements 25/10/2016 and 17/2/2016 (contingent) and 21/4/2016 (prospective). ADX confirms that it is not aware of any new information or data that affects the information included in those market announcements and that all the material assumptions and technical parameters underpinning the estimates in the relevant market announcement continue to apply and have not materially changed. All Italian contingent resource figures quoted in this presentation are third party verified. Contingent Resources: those quantities of petroleum estimated, as of a given date, to be potentially recoverable from known accumulations but, for which the applied project(s) are not yet considered mature enough for commercial development due to one or more contingencies. 1C, 2C, 3C Estimates: in a probabilistic resource size distribution these are the P 90 (90% probability), P 50, and P 10, respectively, for individual opportunities. Totals are by arithmetic summation as recommended under PRMS guidelines. This results in a conservative low case total and optimistic high case total. Persons compiling information about Hydrocarbons. Pursuant to the requirements of the ASX Listing Rules 5.41 and 5.42, the technical and resource information contained in this presentation has been reviewed by Paul Fink, Technical Director of ADX Energy Limited. Mr. Fink is a qualified geophysicist with 23 years of technical, commercial and management experience in exploration for, appraisal and development of oil and gas resources. Mr. Fink has reviewed the results, procedures and data contained in this presentation and considers the resource estimates to be fairly represented. Mr. Fink has consented to the inclusion of this information in the form and context in which it appears. Mr. Fink is a 2 member of the EAGE (European Association of Geoscientists & Engineers) and FIDIC (Federation of Consulting Engineers)

Corporate Overview, Geography and Strategy A Large, Underappreciated Portfolio of Appraisal, Development and Exploration assets with a very compelling 2C resource base capable of being commercialised 3

Corporate Overview Summary An ASX listed international energy exploration and appraisal Company (ASX:ADX) Asset refocus on low cost, low risk, profitable asset commercialisation A 2C resource base of approximately 200 mmboe Geographic focus Offshore Mediterranean and Onshore Europe Experienced Board and Management team 11.5% of Riedel Resources (ASX:RIE) Capital Structure Shares on Issue 798.2 million No of Shareholders 2,613 Market Capitalisation @ 0.7 cents $ 5.5 million Top 20 shareholder Interest 48.31% ASX 2C Resources / Enterprise Value Source: Resource Invest 4

Geography - Sicily Channel (Tunisia and Italy) and Romania (Onshore) Portfolio Includes 1 Oil Field (Nilde), 3 Oil Discoveries (Nilde Area) and 1 Gas Discovery (Dougga) 200 mmboe 2C Resources (US 2 cents/bbl) 5

Sicily Channel Position - All Permits at 100% equity Nilde Area 34 mmbo (2C) Contingent Resource Senergy Feb 2016 Independent Assessment Lambouka Recent Award Tunisia Resource Potential (note 1) Contingent resources: 173 mmboe Prospective resources: 1,027 mmboe Dougga Gas Condensate Discovery 173 mmboe (2C) Contingent Resource Note 1. Prospective and contingent resources were calculated using the probabilistic method and are best estimates. Conversion factor: 1BOE = 5.62 scf. Reporting date: prospective resources 6 Sept 2013, contingent resources 26 Sept 2012. 6

Growth Strategy ADX has large existing Contingent Resource base at the Nilde Oil Redevelopment and Dougga Gas Condensate Discovery - converting these to reserves will create exceptional value growth 1. Nilde is a low risk resource with proven production performance and substantial independently assessed 2C resource 2. Dougga is a large well defined discovery requiring feasibility studies and an appraisal well to mature ADX has identified and is assessing a number of Production Opportunities in Romania capable of delivering immediate cash flow, value addition through production enhancement and reserves additions. 3. Ability to leverage in country knowledge relationships and partnerships to access low cost, low risk production. Convert Large Resource Potential to Reserves Introduce New Sources of Capital in line with maturation of Asset Base Rapidly Compliment Resources with Production 7

Summary of Recent Progress and Immediate Way Forward 8

Recent Company Focus and Activities Streamline management, finance and administration. Board and management renewal, centralised administration Aggressively progressing Nilde Oil Redevelopment Project. Finalising resource assessment based on entire data set Substantial increase in Oil in Place established Ready for farmout and / or project formation Substantial resource, near term cash flow, low cost, excellent economics Securing Dougga medium term strategic resource. Secured an extension for the Kerkouane permit Commenced feasibility work on large Dougga gas condensate discovery A large, under appraised, long life, strategic resource Targeting and assessing production and reserves development opportunities onshore Romania. Ongoing review and bidding on production opportunities Operating Exploration with cashed up Joint Venture Partner 9

Nilde Geotechnical Progress Summary 100 % increased Oil In Place Resource (300 million barrels) determined by ADX - Compared to Senergy Independent Report Based on new data and technical studies by ADX assisted by highly qualified geotechnical and reservoir engineering consultancies 60 million barrels 2C remaining resource inferred using same recovery factor as Senergy - 2C Resource of 28 Million Barrels announced 17/2/16 Reservoir production simulation with revised geological model Determine field recovery factor Field production forecasts using modern development techniques Completion end November Nilde Field: 3D oil layering model (Petrel software) upon which the 300 million barrels of oil OIIP (oil initially in place, best technical case) estimate is based. 10

Nilde Project Definition Progress Review of development options ongoing with facility providers FPSO s (floating, production, storage and offloading facilities) and MOPU s (mobile offshore production units). A drilling and well completion study completed Develop drilling programs and cost estimates for vertical, high angle or horizontal wells. Programs for appraisal wells that can be used as producers. Reviewing development philosophy Appraisal and then develop approach OR Drill & immediately produce scenario Above - FPSO option with sub sea well heads Above - MOPU option with dry well heads Source: Calm Oceans Pte. Ltd, Mono Column Platform and storage technologies are proprietary, patented and patent pending. 11

Immediate Way Forward for Nilde ADX is now well placed in terms of resource estimation, preferred development options, facilities costs and well cost estimates to provide clarity in relation to economic potential of the project Alternative Funding Options; Farm out or sale to fund appraisal drilling targeting late 2017 follow up with development after appraisal Engage facility provider that can provide facilities and funding in exchange for a share of oil potential to accelerate development and by pass appraisal based on minimum commercial reserve enables immediate submission of development plan and rapid commercialisation Both commercialisation options to be pursued immediately, interest in farm in and project participation already received from a number of parties. 12

Immediate Goals & Funding Objectives Nilde Redevelopment Project Finalise reservoir simulation to determine revised resource range. Finalise farm-in, partial Sale or alternative contractor facilities contribution solution. Progress appraisal or early development strategy Dougga Gas Condensate Field Appraisal and Feasibility Engage in an incentivise arrangement with suitably qualified Contractor to optimise development scenario and cost Commence discussions with Tunisian Authorities regarding Dougga appraisal and development license terms Commence farm-in discussions with clarity regarding commercialisation Romanian Reserves and Production Acquisition Continue reviewing production opportunities capable of delivering immediate cash flow and production growth 13

Asset Back Ground Nilde Oil Field Redevelopment, Dougga Gas Condensate Discovery and Romania 14

Nilde Area Field Area Offshore Sicily Nilde Redevelopment Project Potential 15

Nilde Oil Field Area - Back Ground 1 Abandoned Oil Field & 3 Oil discoveries (all tested) between 1979 to 1990 Nilde Oil field produced at approx 10,000 BOPD from a single well for 5 years before production acceleration resulted in premature water production Early generation FPSO facility could not handle water production nor did it have artificial lift facilities. Excellent 2D seismic and well data base Independently assessed 34 mmbo audited remaining 2C recoverable resources for Nilde & other oil discoveries Nailia-1 Nilde-1 bis Nilde-2 Norma-1 100 m waterbottom A substantial 1C resource at Nilde and Nilde- Bis of 18 million barrels with 2C resource of 28 million barrels 5 exploration leads defined with existing 2D seismic have total best estimate prospective resources of 90 million barrels of oil. Source: offshoreenergytoday/saipem 16

Nilde Oil Field - Production History Nilde Oil Field produced: 21 mmbls before abandonment Initial reserves post sanction in 1979: 6.3 mmbbls 5700 bbls/d ~10,000 bbls/d Nilde-2: 4 years without decline @ 9000 bopd 7860 bbls/d 4215 bbls/d Production Acceleration coincided with water break through and 1988 oil price collapse US$40 oil @ start up US$13 oil when acceleration occurred Source: ENI Nilde abandonment report which explicitly stated OIL rates NILDE-2 produced for 5 years at flat rate of 10,000 BOPD with no water NILDE 6 was added when oil price dropped to accelerate production. Resulted in water encroachment with no water handling on vessel or lifting capability in wells 1 17

Nilde Oil Field Contingent Resources Gross Contingent 1 Resources Volumes (MMstb) 1C 2 2C 2 3C 2 Estimate Estimate Estimate Nilde Field 8.7 13.1 17.8 Nilde- Bis Discovery 9.3 15.3 21.0 Norma Discovery 1.2 3.9 12.9 Naila Discovery 1.0 1.7 2.7 Total 3 20.2 34.0 54.4 Source: Senergy, Feb. 2016, Independent Resources Assessment Nilde Oil Field Notes 1. Contingent Resources: those quantities of petroleum estimated, as of a given date, to be potentially recoverable from known accumulations but, for which the applied project(s) are not yet considered mature enough for commercial development due to one or more contingencies. 2. 1C, 2C, 3C Estimates: in a probabilistic resource size distribution these are the P 90 (90% probability), P 50, and P 10, respectively, for individual opportunities. 3. Totals are by arithmetic summation as recommended under PRMS guidelines. This results in a conservative low case total and optimistic high case total. Nilde-Bis 90 meters water depth, Top oil reservoir at ~1500 m below Sea Level Green vertical lines: wells which tested 18oil

NPV10 US$ Million Nilde Oil Field Indicative Economics Development Scenario Assumptions 2 slanted production wells centrally located and one non utilised appraisal well Develop Nilde and Nilde Bis only FPSO Development Build Owned and Operated Well total TVD 1700 m and 90 m water depth Oil export via tanker(s) to local refinery $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 Project NPV10 versus Oil Price "Nilde Project Indicative Economics" High Value Potential Low breakeven oil price $14.0 $12.0 US $ Capex per Barrel $- $- $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 US$ per barrel $10.0 $8.0 $6.0 $4.0 $2.0 $- 1C Resource 2C Resource 3C Resource Low Capex / barrel lower for a leased FPSO Sources of Data Facilities costs from FPSO contractor estimates and drilling cost studies based on previous drilling performance and recent drill rig rates. Production rates based on Senergy resource estimates; 6000 BOPD/well for 1C and 10,000 BOPD/well for 2C resource case 1C Resource Case 2C Resource Case 19

Nilde Field Redevelopment - Key Attributes Technical Commercial Historical production and test data for all undeveloped discoveries Excellent 2 D seismic data quality and good coverage High well productivities (approx 10,000 BOPD - vertical wells). Shallow drill depths (approx 1700m), Modest water depths (approx 90m) and benign sea conditions. Large equity interest available for farmout or sale High API oil proximal to refineries Transformational cash flow potential Majority of Development Capex can be accessed via a facilities lease Excellent environment for securing leased FPSO or MOPU Fiscal & Regulatory Excellent fiscal terms - 4% royalty + Corporate Tax (27.5%) 5 year license term with one well commitment Similar offshore HSE regulatory obligations as Australia 20

Nilde Field Redevelopment - Current Status Progress on Project Definition and Commercialisation 1. Secured all historical production and geological data required to complete subsurface assessment 2. Review of Nilde core only outstanding work to complete revised resource assessment, finalise geological model and commence production modelling 3. Have finalise drilling and completion costs studies for appraisal and development drilling. 4. Alternative design options are being considered with associated 3 rd party facilities cost estimates available from FPSO or MOPU contractors 5. Ongoing engagement with potential funding partners with a view to securing appraisal / development drilling funding at an asset level. Firenze FPSO, on Nilde location from 1982-1989 On track to start marketing an asset farm out or part sale in October 2016 21

Dougga Gas Condensate Discovery Kerkouane permit Offshore Tunisia Dougga Gas Condensate Project Potential 22

Dougga Gas Condensate Field - Background (100% equity) Dougga West (oil) Prospect 227 mmboe Best case Prospective Resource Nilde oil field Dougga Gas Condensate Discovery Large Prospective Resource Potential ADX Best Case Estimate: 1,027 mmboe Note 1. Prospective and contingent resources were calculated using the probabilistic method and are best estimates. Conversion factor: 1BOE = 5.62 scf. Reporting date: prospective resources 6 Sept 2013, contingent resources 26 Sept 2012. The Dougga 1 well intersected approx 600 m gross gas column and tested condensate rich gas in 1981 Dougga 1 is located in 328m of water, 45kms east of Cap Bon. Dougga gas is liquids-rich but also contains 18% to 30% CO2. ADX acquired 3D seismic over the field and near field prospects Prior to the Arab spring highly reputable independent expert AGR Tracs assessed that the field was likely to be commercialised. Dougga project economics are attractive but contractor economics do not currently justify development. Previous project economics assumed offshore floating facilities. Near field discovery tie in opportunities and large exploration potential defined on 3 D seismic. What Has Changed Recently Improvement in the political landscape and willingness of Tunisian Authorities to consider revised fiscal terms Potential to significantly reduce Capex with revised development option. Tunisia has become net importer of gas 23

For personal use only Dougga Gas Condensate Field - Contingent Resource Potential Contingent Resources Estimates 1C 2C 3C Total Oil Equivalent [mmboe] Liquids: Condensate & LPG [mmbls] Sales Gas [bcf] 88 47 264 173 91 517 268 142 804 Dougga-West Dougga Sources: Competent persons reports (CPR) by TRACS and ISIS, Development Plan by Genesis Dougga Gas Condensate Appraisal Contingent unrisked resources The Tracs CPR from July 2012 estimates a 70% chance of success for a commercial development. Undrilled up dip Additional updip potential not yet reservoir section quantified DOUGGA-1 Abiod Map DOUGGA-1 Top Birsa Map UPDIP APPRAISAL 600 meter gas column intersected in Dougga #1 well mapped and supported by RFT pressure data. 300 Meters of Up dip potential based on 3D seismic not included in current resource assessment. Dougga West Oil Prospect located within 9kms of Dougga 24

Dougga Gas Condensate - Key Attributes Technical Commercial Large Condensate Rich Gas Resource Structure well defined with high quality 3D seismic Gas contains 70 to 90 Barrels / mcf of condensate and 18 30% CO2 The previous development scenario is based on floating offshore condensate removal and dehydration with a gas plant on shore. Appraisal well required to confirm up dip potential and economic flow rates. An alternative development scenario based on a 45 km subsea tie back to an onshore plant is expected to reduce costs. Excellent gas market opportunities in Tunisia (now a gas importer) and Europe via Transmed pipeline. Gas sold at oil equivalent pricing in Tunisia. Substantial nearby satellite tie in opportunities defined on 3D seismic Large equity available for farmout or sale. Fiscal & Regulatory PSC with 65% to 35% profit split for Government to Contractor, maximum of 45% Revenue can be claimed as Cost gas in any year. Tunisian Authorities have recently stated they will consider new license terms to facilitate a development The political situation in Tunisia has continued to stabilise with free elections. 25

Dougga Gas Condensate Project - Current Status Progress on Project Redefinition and Appraisal 1. Since the Arab spring, ADX has concentrated on the exploration potential of the permit in order to maximize the value of its 740 sq km Geostreamer 3D seismic however ADX believes a Dougga commercialisation strategy is more desirable and achievable 2. A twelve month license extension was awarded in August 2016 3. Commenced new feasibility studies based on a subsea tie back to an onshore tie back with a view to reducing development and operating costs 4. Continue discussions with Tunisian authorities regarding an improvement in terms for a Dougga gas condensate development. 5. Continue engagement with nearby stranded gas condensate discoveries defined on 3D seismic 6. Attract a farminee to fund an appraisal well Goal is to demonstrate the commercial viability of the Dougga gas condensate Firenze FPSO, on Nilde location from 1982-1989 project and its potential to be a transformational project for Tunisia 26

Parta Exploration Permit Onshore Romania Romanian Onshore Production Opportunities 27

Parta Permit Progress - 50% equity interest and Operator 30 months extension of first exploration phase agreed with government ratification pending 2 D seismic acquired indicating excellent prospectivity Extensive landowner work to secure access resulting in community support and application of petroleum law as an efficient and fast default process in local courts As a result 3D seismic now can be acquired for prospects close to producing fields ADX well positioned for farm out 3D area 28

For personal use only PARTA Permit 3D Seismic is a likely game changer S N PINCHOUT TRAPS tested 1.2 mmscf/d Oil production Ch IVb_ IVa IVb_ IVc_ IVc_ Va TS2 VI Vc BLOW OUT Oil & Gas charge proven Proven multi horizon plays Use 3D seismic to drill sweet spots >>> Like shooting fish in a barrel! VIII 8 sqkm trap area Horizon IVb tested 1.2 mmscf/d 29

Romanian Production Opportunities Background Romania is a prolific oil and gas province with good infrastructure and excellent fiscal terms (3.5% Well Head Royalty and 16% Corporate Tax) Dominated by a few larger players seeking to maximise production from larger assets ADX is a qualified operator in Romania with 4 years of operations in the Parta Permit. ADX is well placed to leverage local knowledge and relationships to gain access to production opportunities. The low oil price has created momentum in a market for privately held assets. ADX is assessing a number of low cost, low risk, production opportunities with substantial reserves upside. Acquisition Strategy Secure asset that is below the radar of large companies that dominate the landscape. Undertake immediate well reinstatement opportunities and development drilling to enhance production and cash flow. Get runs on the board while planning additional development drilling opportunities which can be progressed in a rising oil price environment to maximise returns. 30

Long Term Plan: A three pronged approach to build a sustainable growth platform with nearly all the necessary pieces in place Goal is to combine immediate production and reserves (Romanian Production Acquisition) with transformational near term development (Nilde Redevelopment project) and longer term value potential (Dougga Gas Condensate, Sicily Channel exploration and Romanian exploration) Large resource base which can provide extraordinary value development by converting it to reserves and then production 18 month ambitions a series of transformational opportunities Nilde Farmin Nilde Appraisal Drilling Potential Romanian Reserves and Production Acquisition Dougga feasibility Dougga development plan and fiscal terms discussions Dougga farmout 31

Ian Tchacos Paul Fink Executive Chairman Chief Executive Head Office: Level 2, Suite 14 210 Bagot Road, Subiaco, WA, 6008 Tel: 61 8 9381 4266 Website Email ASX Code ADX Fax: 61 8 9381 4766 www.adxenergy.com.au admin@adxenergy.com.au 32