ITGA Leaf Supply Trend And Market situation António Abrunhosa CEO International Tobacco Growers Association CHIANG MAI SEPTEMBER 2011
ITGA OVERVIEW
ITGA MEMBER COUNTRIES USA R. DOMINICANA PORTUGAL ITALIA CROACIA PAKISTAN INDIA CHINA THAILAND COLOMBIA BRASIL TANZANIA INDONESIA MALASIA PHILIPINES ZAMBIA MALAWI ZIMBABWE ARGENTINA SOUTH AFRICA
ITGA OVERVIEW HIGHLIGHTS: ITGA is a non-profit organization founded in 1984 Run by: Board Directors, President and a CEO ITGA represents: tobacco farmers, own growersrun organizations, regional tobacco leaf boards and national tobacco institutes.
ITGA S OBJECTIVES
ITGA S OBJECTIVES Develop contacts between tobacco growers around the world. Sharing non-competitive information. Strategies to stabilise prices and supply. Ensuring legitimate policies regarding tobacco growers interests. Monitoring market conditions. Coordinating with other stakeholders.
ITGA S REGULAR ACTIVITIES
ITGA S REGULAR ACTIVITIES: Publication of quarterly magazine. Regional meetings by continents. Participation in ECLT foundation. Up-dating of web-site. Contacts with media. Organizing the AGM. Follow up of Market Regulation.
TOBACCO PRODUCTS MARKET OUTLOOK
TOBACCO PRODUCTS MARKET OUTLOOK Tobacco Sectors performance and outlook 2004-2014 Tobacco trends by sectors
TOBACCO PRODUCTS MARKET OUTLOOK The forecast for all the tobacco sectors is for continuing volume growth. Volume growth is expected to continue because of the growth in smoking population in Asia. Over the period 2004-2014 smokeless tobacco is forecast to be by far the fastest growing sector by volume. However the fastest growth over 2009-2014 is forecast to be in smoking tobacco due to switching to cheaper smokes by consumers.
CIGARRETE PRICE AND MARKET OUTLOOK
CIGARRETE PRICE OUTLOOK Cigarette Prices Trend Analysis by Region 2009-2014 2014 % growth 2009-2014 % growth 2004-2009 Asia Pacific 1.6 36.2 34.9 Australasia 7.1 10.0 23.7 Eastern Europe 2.0 51.4 73.8 Latin America 2.4 28.5 78.0 Middle East and Africa 1.4 6.9 23.4 North America 7.2 37.5 41.0 Western Europe 6.3 16.4 34.4 World 2.4 24.0 28.5
CIGARRETE PRICE OUTLOOK
CIGARRETE MARKET OUTLOOK China set to continue to dominate China added nearly 400 billion sticks to the global cigarettes market over 2004-2009, enabling the global cigarettes market to grow by nearly 33 billion sticks.
CIGARRETE MARKET OUTLOOK The volume growth of the Chinese market, driven by smoking population growth and traditions of smoking will maintain the growth rate of the past five years in volume terms due to smoking population growth..
CIGARRETES: PRESENT AND FUTURE PERFORMANCE
CIGARRETES: PRESENT AND FUTURE PERFOMANCE Latin America -6.3% 352-19.1% -2.9% -3.5% North America 254
CIGARRETES: PRESENT AND FUTURE PERFOMANCE -5.4% Eastern Europe -11.5% 591 1.9% -1.2% 727 Western Europe
CIGARRETES: PRESENT AND FUTURE PERFOMANCE 13.4% 13.7% 3,331 Australasia Asia Pacific -4.3% -1.7% 24.4
CIGARRETES: PRESENT AND FUTURE PERFOMANCE: MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA
LEAF SUPPLY TRENDS
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
FCV SUPPLY TREND
FCV SUPPLY TREND
FCV SUPPLY TREND FCV has moved to an oversupplied situation. Stock levels at 30 June 2010 are up by about 37 million kilos (strip) compared to a year ago, to a level of 92 million kilos. World production in 2010 is estimated at 4,545.1 million kilos (5.0 % increase over 2009). Total Exporters 2010 production (excl. PRC) is estimated to be 1,865.7 million kilos (5.7 % increase over 2009).
BURLEY SUPPLY TREND
BURLEY SUPPLY TREND
BURLEY SUPPLY TREND Burley supply and demand is currently in a balanced position. Stock levels remain low at 30 June 2010, and are predicted to remain relatively low by crop end 2011. World production in 2010 is estimated at 759.5 million kilos (9.7% below the 2009 production level). Total Exporters 2010 production is estimated at 707.6 million kilos (10.2% decrease from 2009).
ORIENTAL SUPPLY TREND WUS million of kilos strip
ORIENTAL SUPPLY TREND
ORIENTAL SUPPLY TREND Oriental supply is currently in relative balance. Total Oriental and Semi-oriental 2010 crop production (excluding the PRC) is estimated at 233 million kilos, a decrease of 8.2% from the 2009 crop level. Despite decreased production estimated for the 2010 crop, overall stock levels are forecast to decrease only slightly by crop end.
LEAF SUPPLY TRENDS FORECAST SELECTED COUNTRIES
MALAWI
ZIMBABWE
TANZANIA
BRASIL
ARGENTINA
INDIA
Market factors affecting supply and demand Green Pricing Cost of Production and Return Human Nature The Yoyo Undersupply / Oversupply Unsold Stocks Pricing Pressures Demand Indications throughout the supply chain Setting realistic expectations for all of the tobacco partners
THANK YOU a.abrunhosa@tobaccoleaf.org