How science and policy can work together for better environmental change policies? Dr. Silke Beck, Helmholtz Zentrum für Umweltforschung - Leipzig (UFZ) IRGC workshop on governance of slow-developing catastrophic risks Zurich Friday 28 June
STRUCTURE What role(s)/ function(s) for experts to policy in risk governance? How can scientific advice can support policy-making? Responsive and flexible organization Rese arch Socie ty Polic y Source: Beck, UFZ Leipzig
Empirical Findings case studies (IPCC, MA, IPBES) Comparison feedback by practioneers
SCIENCE-POLICY EXPERTS AT UFZ Network-Forum Biodiversity (NeFo) at national-, BiodiversityKnowledge at EU-level Scientific coordination of TEEB, TEEB-Germany involvement in IMoSEB/IPBES HGF Regional Climate Office IPCC-AR5 coordinating lead author TASK: chemical polluted Megasites Water Science Alliance GLUES etc. Seite 4
SETTING OUT THE PROBLEM WHAT ROLE FOR EXPERTS? Rio+20 UN conference: Science has been asked to be relevant Demand for usable information for decision-making Demand Side: Governments expect decisions to be based on the best available science (evidence based policy making) Supply Side: Predictions of futures global change and regional impacts will be uncertain Reliable information about near term, regional impacts and changes are not available
DEMAND & SUPPLY The science is unlikely to fulfill the expectations of decision makers and potentially misleading if misinterpreted or used incorrectly Can we wait until the science is sound? Page 6
MOVING BEYOND THE SCIENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE Need to reconcile supply of scientific findings and the societal demands align research closely to the needs of the decision making process Opening up choices in how experts relate to decision making What role may they play and with what consequences? Page 7
Models of expertise HOW TO ASSESS AN ASSESSMENT? Source: Beck 2012
LINEAR MODEL - ASSUMPTIONS Science is expected to determine and compel policy: n linear, and one-way influence more and better information trigger political action and consent scientific evidence as the only authority to justify policy action success' = 'impact on decision making' Speaking truth to power Science (facts) Truth Power (values) Knowledge closure Policy choice www.va-bne.de World in Transition: A Social Contract for Sustainability Page Episode 9 9 Scientific Advice for Policy. Dr. Beck
ONE SIZE FITS ALL? Scientific consensus as a prerequisite for action. Experts are expected to provide: One framing One framework One approach One scale One level One single uniform voice One solution silver bullet shot Source: IPCC.ch Page 10
'DANGEROUS ASSUMPTIONS The linear model proved as empirically false and politically risky: Even if there is a remarkable degree of scientific consensus Neither politicians nor the public automatically heed experts warnings Policy does not necessarily flows from the quality of the science More and better information and communication address the symptoms rather than the causes
THE LINEAR MODEL PARADOXICAL CONSEQUENCES FOR SCIENCE POLICY politicizing science while claiming to be neutral, experts engage in implicit and explicit policy advocacy compel people to act in a particular way de-politicizing policy experts unlikely to fulfill the expectations of decision maker for sound scientific evidence political inaction and vulnerable to controversy Proxy debates stifled discussion of alternative policy approaches Does robust policy necessarily depend upon debating the science? Source: UFZ Leipzig Page 12
The linear model LESSONS LEARNED The equation between success and impacts (= trigger) has been shown to be too simplistic in empirical terms. It is not the solution but part of the problem itself. The limitations of this approach, however, have become increasingly obvious. One-size-fits-all approach is the wrong tool for addressing the needs of decisionmaking if it is based on a too simple model. It also points to a deeper problem, which lies in the way the question at stake is framed.
Boundary Organization at the Interface Include/ accountable to legislators, technical experts and representatives from other areas of society Combine scientific expertise and political representation Reconcile public demands for accountability with scientific requirements for scientific integrity Translate scientific findings into policy relevant information Coordinate across scales & levels
OPENING UP TO POLICY ALTERNATIVES Pragmatic models As Robert May, former government chief scientist, explained more than 20 years ago: The role of the scientist is not to determine or deciding what choices we should take, but indicating what the possible choices, constraints and possibilities are honest broker (Pielke 2007) to determine what the possibilities are rather than to decide between the possibilities to explore choices and various development pathways to engage with alternative approaches and to generate ideas to inform its solutions
ONE SIZE FITS ALL? The one-size-fits-all model cannot work because the most appropriate ways to address the challenges and information needs vary from case to case and are dependent on the particular context. Need to the changing political landscape and expectations that are open to change and revision. The pace in which the world is stepping up and we can assure that experts must adapt to these changes if it still wants to attain its significance in the future. are responsive and flexible, enabling readjustments to specific needs. www.va-bne.de World in Transition: A Social Contract for Sustainability Episode 9 Scientific Advice for Policy. Dr. Beck
OPENING UP To a full spectrum of options and explore the choices that scientists and decision-makers both its political feasibility, real world conditions, the changing needs of potential audiences and contributing experts The more perspectives that are available, the more options will be conceivable (closure & path dependency)
COLLECTIVE EXPERIMENTATION Many choices and priorities faced in scientific advice open to revision and change: What is actually the problem? Who are the users for whom knowledge is generated? What are the criteria for the scientific evidence and political relevance? What are the kinds of knowledges that are needed? What experts and expertise? How is the public invited? How to organize review procedures? How demarcate mandates between scientific and political institutions numerous other issue
ORGANIZATIONAL ADAPTIVENESS AND REFLEXIVITY How can the expert panels themselves effectively respond to novel challenges and changings needs Are they fit for function/ purpose? Need to adjust procedures and governance structures? How can the processes and structures be designed so that they are flexible and responsive? Need to develop and experiment with novel processes and design features Which are processes and institutional arrangements are instrumental to maintain and improve flexibility & adaptive capacity
ReACCOUNTABILITY OF SCIENCE POLICY RESPONSIVE ORGANIZATION forms of public engagement in understanding the processes and practices transparency and accountability for judgments and choices in organizing science advice instrumental to improving the quality of the expertise ensuring the legitimacy of the process enabling the capacity to respond adequately to unexpected events (responsive & flexible)
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION! For more information: BMBF-Project NESNET (http://www.ufz.de/index.php?de=5770) Beck, S. (2012): The challenges of building cosmopolitan climate expertise - with reference to Germany. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change: Vol. 3/1: 1-17. Beck, S. (2012): Between Tribalism and Trust: The IPCC under the public microscope. Nature and Culture: Vol. 7/2. E. Lövbrand, R. Pielke, Jr., and S. Beck, 2010. A Democracy Paradox in Studies of Science and Technology Science, Technology & Human Values, first published on August 26, 2010 as doi:10.1177/0162243910366154