From megatrends to opportunities: a fast and shared exploration of the future António Alvarenga 30/09/2016, IST DRIVERS OF CHANGE/DRIVING FORCES - DEFINITION DRIVERS (or DRIVERS OF CHANGE) are any factors or forces that can potentially influence a given strategic focus. DRIVING FORCES are forces of change outside your organization that will shape future dynamics in predictable and unpredictable ways. 1
The future will result from the interaction between Megatrends coming from the past and shaping the future, Weak Signals or issues at an embrionary stage of development, Wildcards that might surprise us in a positive or negative way, and Structural Uncertainties that might take us not just for one but for a plurality of possible futures. Strategic Focus Time horizon Trends Megatrends Wildcards KEY CONCEPTS Weak Signals Uncertainties / Key Uncertainties and Configurations Structures, systems and heuristics Scenarios Visions / Intents 2
TREND A declaration of the direction of change. It is usually a gradual and long term change in the drivers that shape the future of an organization, region, nation, sector or society. MEGATRENDS Megatrends are long-term processes of transformation with a broad scope and a dramatic impact. They are considered to be powerful factors which shape the future. Adapted from: Holger Glockner, Andreas Neef Z_trenddatabase - An Essential Tool for Strategy and Future Work in Companies Z_punkt GmbH - The Foresight Company Cologne, Germany 3
THE TREND TOWARDS MEGATRENDS MEGATRENDS are long-term processes of transformation with a broad scope and a dramatic impact. They are considered to be powerful factors which shape future markets. There are three characteristics in which megatrends differ from other trends: TIME HORIZON Megatrends can be observed over decades. Quantitative, empirically unambiguous indicators are available for the present. They can be projected with high probabilities at least 15 years into the future. REACH Megatrends impact comprehensively on all regions, and result in multidimensional transformations of all societal subsystems, whether in politics, society, or economy. Their precise features vary according to the region in question. INTENSITY OF IMPACT Megatrends impact powerfully and extensively on all actors, whether it is governments, individuals and their consumption patterns, or corporations and their strategies. The term Megatrends was coined by John Naisbitt, who, 25 years ago, published a book of the same title. Megatrends presented 10 far-reaching developments which painted a picture of our future at the turn of the millennium. The book became a bestseller and made Naisbitt a trailblazer for social and economic trend research. With hindsight, one has to acknowledge graciously that his analyses did not lack the necessary vision. He coined, e.g., the expression Globalisation, recognised every individual s increasing responsibility for his own life, envisioned the information and multi-option society, and realised how decentral, networking structures would dominate the new millennium. THE 4 UNSTOPPABLES ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY (Inc. CLIMATE CHANGE) DIGITAL AGEING? TH: 2030 4
DIGITAL Digitalization cannot be stopped [ ], along the lines of adapt or die. Karl-Heinz Land, GmbH & Co. KG (in his speech at the EuroCloud Germany Conference 2016) DIGITALIZATION automation (white-collar also) decentralisation inteligization (AI / IA) virtualization digitization desintermediation robotisation screenification mobilisation Gerd Leonhard 5
DIGITALIZATION AS MEGATREND 1. Digital transformation is changing business models - including revenue models 2. Declining PC usage and increasing mobile device adoption is driving a mobile first world 3. Digital transformation and a proliferation of data are fundamentally changing the relationship between businesses and their customers EY (2015) DIGITALIZATION AS MEGATREND 4. Digital disruption is changing the market context and competitive landscape of most industries 5. As cyber threats continue to multiply, it is becoming harder to safeguard data, intellectual property, and personal information 6. Workstyles and the means to engage talent are becoming more agile in the digital world 7. Digital and robotic technologies will increasingly augment or replace workers. No Ordinary Disruption, McKinsey Global Institute, 2015 EY (2015) 6
DIGITALIZATION AND SUSTAINABILITY digital technologies will boost sustainability promotes regional and international cooperation promotes access to science, technology and innovation promotes development, transfer, dissemination and diffusion of environmentally sound technologies 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development (2015) AGEING Between 2015 and 2030, the number of people in the world aged 60 years or over is projected to grow by 56 per cent. World Population Ageing Report 2015, United Nations 7
AGE AS A MEGATREND Global life expectancy 1950 47 years 2015 71 years 2050 76 years The triple ageing No Ordinary Disruption, McKinsey Global Institute, 2015 AGE AS A MEGATREND Population aged 60-79 years and aged 80 years or over World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision, United Nations 8
THINGS TO CONSIDER More pressure on healthcare systems, social services and the working population, as older citizens become increasingly dependent upon others Global aging will reshape consumer spending for decades to come. These changes will not only impact developed markets but also have a far-reaching effect on emerging markets, home to two-thirds of the world s elderly Five Megatrends and Possible Implications (pwc), 2013 http://www.who.int/gho/mortality_burden_disease/life_tables/situation_trends/en/ (2015) THINGS TO CONSIDER As the population ages in mature economies and the ability to use debt is limited, governments may come under pressure to raise taxes to maintain social programs Shifts in longevity may affect business models, pension costs, talent goals/ambitions Societal and political pressure to create jobs may increase, especially for older workers and the have nots Health systems may need to be re-engineered (and paid for) to handle many more participants in economies which will often see declining GDP The workforce may need to be retooled in all parts of the world: in the aging economies, older workers will need to learn new skills and work longer Five Megatrends and Possible Implications (pwc), 2013 http://www.who.int/gho/mortality_burden_disease/life_tables/situation_trends/en/ (2015) 9
OPPORTUNITIES (e.g.) Health care & technology Real Estate Five investable themes in these areas, according to a PGIM Report: 1. multifamily condos 2. senior housing 3. urban life sciences clusters 4. pharmaceuticals 5. biotechnology-enabled medical services and devices A Silver Lining - The Investment Implications of an aging world (PGIM, 2016) ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY (Sustainable development is the) development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. World Commission on Environment and Development, 1987 Environmental sustainability [ ] means maintenance of natural capital. Robert Goodland and Herman Daly, Environmental Sustainability: Universal and Non-Negotiable, 1996 10
ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY Sustainability is becoming the lens through which a business is judged by its consumers, workforce, society and even its investors. http://www.pwc.co.uk/issues/megatrends/climate-change-and-resource-scarcity.html EVIDENCE Sustainability is an emerging megatrend [ ]. The Sustainability Imperative, David A. Lubin and Daniel C. Etsy, 2010 Sustainability operates as a megatrend: it presents a framework that values interconnection, feedback, and holistic thinking. Understanding and operationalizing sustainability within the business, government, and non-profit sectors will allow for a healthier, wealthier, and more-balanced society. Daniel C. Esty, http://www.csrwire.com/press_releases/39193-sustainability-megatrend-of-the-21st-century-, 08.2016) A future global agenda has to address this strong sustainability challenge and facilitate transformative change at all levels - local, national and global. Global trends and challenges to sustainable development post-2015, 2013 11
ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY (THE CLIMATE COMPONENT) EVIDENCE Scientific evidence for warming of the climate system is unequivocal: Global temperature rise Warming ocean Ocean acidification Sea level rise Extreme events Shrinking ice sheets Glacial retreat Declining Arctic sea ice Decreased snow cover http://climate.nasa.gov/evidence, 2016 12
EVIDENCE NY Times USA Today Forbes Washington Post PHYS.org 2006 2010 2014 2012 2008 2016 EVIDENCE NY Times PHYS.org The Guardian ScientificAmerican 2016 13
KEY PLAYERS Governments Investors CEOs Entrepreneurs A new group of climate champions are emerging. They are the mayors, investors, CEOs, entrepreneurs, and community leaders who have the power to move markets and transform economies into a new inclusive, sustainable growth model. [ ] Andrew Steer, President & CEO, World Resources Institute, 05.2016 (The Paris Agreement) sets a clear and ambitious direction, based on science, which gives business and investors the signal they need to play their part [ ]. National climate plans under the Paris Agreement are estimated to represent a $13.5 trillion market for the energy sector in energy efficiency and low-carbon technologies through to 2030. Nigel Topping, CEO, We Mean Business, 05.2016 GO GREEN OR GO HOME? 14
Thank you. Do keep in touch. António Alvarenga https://pt.linkedin.com/in/antonioalvarenga 15