Foresight Impact on Policy making and Lessons for New Member States and Candidate Countries Insights from the FORLEARN mutual learning process Cristiano CAGNIN, Philine WARNKE Fabiana SCAPOLO, Olivier DA COSTA European Commission / Joint Research Centre / Institute for Prospective Technological Studies
Outline FOR LEARN project Challenges of policy / decision making What? Contribution of Foresight to policy making 1. Informing policy 2. Facilitating policy implementation Three additional functions How? (II part) 3. Supporting policy definition 4. Embedding participation 5. Reorienting the policy system Emerging guidelines for high impact
FOR LEARN Project Part of the Foresight Knowledge Sharing Platform initiated by DG Research Objectives: Consolidating and advancing Foresight knowledge and know how Promote and facilitate good use of Foresight throughout Europe Improving accessibility of Foresight knowledge Through Mutual learning between relevant actors To address knowledge gaps To transfer existing knowledge Codification and dissemination of Foresight knowledge Direct support to people embarking into Foresight
FOR LEARN Learning Cycle Information about Foresight such as what it is what it can do for you and what not. WP1 Practical guidance on how to design WP1 and carry out a Foresight exercise Online Foresight Detailed description and implementation advises on Foresight methods guide Case studies of past and current debates and research issues http://forlearn.jrc.es/guide/0_home/index.htm Feedback to update the Expertise for the guide support to practitioners To promote Transfer and consolidation of knowledge Codification of practises Research on knowledge gaps WP3 Different types Mutual Learning Workshop Bilateral (in support to a specific exercise, ex Romanian) Foresight Learning Cycle WP2 WP2 In addition we are Online setting Query up online discussion forums (multilateral support) Multilateral (addressing a knowledge gap with 10 15 Knowledge gaps Possibly set up of a Mutual Learning experts) Workshop to focus on the issue Consolidation (presenting results to a larger audience) Individual and targeted support to practitioners, especially beginners Direct answer Reference to other sources or contacts
Why revisiting impact on policy making? Experience allows for review of lessons learned Increasing emphasis on impact assessment and on value for money Exercises launched to respond to a specific demand Shift of emphasis from product to process Impact on policy needs to be redefined Debate on new types of policy support instruments and new modes of governance Need to position Foresight
Mutual Learning workshop series on the impact of Foresight on Policy making 1. Seville Dec 05 Positioning of Foresight in the policy making System Framing the debate 2. Brussels April 06 Towards practical conclusions Adaptive Foresight and other Inroads to policy 3. Seville Sept 06 The Policy makers' perspective 4. Seville Dec 06 Consolidation workshop Presenting the results to a wider audience Capture further reactions to refine and validate the outcomes Foster wide dissemination of FOR LEARN insights
What?
2 + 3 functions 1. Informing policy 2. Facilitating policy implementation 3. Supporting policy definition 4. Embedding participation 5. Reorienting the policy system
Two core functions of Foresight for policy making (model) Policy Informing policy Actor Foresight product Foresight process Actor Actor Facilitating policy implementation
Policy Informing policy 1: Informing policy Foresight product Anticipatory intelligence Dynamics of change (scenarios, roadmaps) Future opportunities & threats Strengths & weaknesses of the current system for addressing future challenges Policy (e.g. skills & competencies available) Informing policy Visions for change Recommendations for action Based on a diversity of knowledge sources Stakeholders views Foresight product Viewpoints and expectations in reference to a policy field New ideas from new channels
Facilitating Policy through enabling change 2: Facilitating policy implementation Actor Policy Foresight process Actor Within the targeted arena of change: Common ground Linkages & interfaces Combinations between elements (e.g. institutions, companies, people, knowledge, beliefs, technologies, products) Joint visions Learning platforms Soft coordination Awareness of policy objectives, strategy and constraints Willingness to contribute to policy implementation because of agreement with the goal to reach and even feeling of ownership Actor Distributed intelligence Policy Foresight process Actor Shared information as an input to decision making for various actors and stakeholders beyond policy makers Policy benefit: Enhanced the receptivity of the systems and thereby its capability to react to future challenges and to evolve in phase with policy Actor Actor Facilitating change
Policy Foresight product Informing policy Informing policy Dynamics of change Future risks & opportunities System capabilities New ideas & visions Stakeholders views Foresight process Foresight process Actors Actors Facilitating policy implementation Facilitating policy implementation Building amongst stakeholders: Common ground Soft coordination Distributed intelligence Actors
3 additional functions Refined through the Mutual Learning process 1. Supporting policy definition Establishing a linkage to implementation 2. Embedding participation Improving governance of policy making 3. Reorienting the policy system Adapting it to changing context and challenges
f Supporting policy definition Problem: Anticipatory intelligence is not easily translated into options for policy definition, even more so if it stems from a collective process Reluctance of policy makers to communicate their agenda within open process Lack of understanding about real needs of policy makers Stakeholders not in a position to develop policy strategies Danger of blocking the creative process To improve impact on implementation informing and facilitating are not enough. Support for policy definition is a possible function of Foresight that has to be addressed explicitly
f Embedding participation A new infrastructure for participatory democracy : improved mode of governance in multi layered and multi actor arenas Improve the transparency of policy making process Improve the legitimacy of policy making process Especially for policy with long term impact or large budget spending Crisis of (S&T) expertise Restoring trust afterwards Better identification of citizens with policy Building policy on societal debate Trigger societal debate about central issues (also access to media via Foresight) Making societal values explicit Evolution towards shared values
f Reorienting the policy system New configurations of policy making bodies around new conceptualisations of topics e.g. establishment of linkages between ministries Better ability to address future challenges
Compatibility of the functions A Foresight exercise can fulfil several of the functions but Not everything can be achieved simultaneously and with the same approach Need to tailor phases to functions with different: Levels of stakeholder participation Modes of policy involvement Methods Adaptive Foresight (WS2)
Diversity and level of participation Tailoring Phases to Functions Large societal debate Phase IV: Making choices Citizen participation Stakeholder expert groups Phase II: Exploration Phase V: Implementation and coordination A few decisionmakers Phase I: Diagnosis Phase III: Strategic orientation From vision to action Diagnosis Vision How to get there + recommendations Measures, actions
What is the relevance of these functions to your country or specific context? Informing policy Facilitating policy implementation Supporting policy definition Embedding participation Reorienting the policy system