New Themes for Analysing Neo- Carbon Society 2050 Sirkka Heinonen, Juho Ruotsalainen, Marjukka Parkkinen, Joni Karjalainen Finland Futures Research Centre, University of Turku WP1 Neo-Carbon Enabling Neo-Growth Society Transformative Energy Futures 2050 6th Researchers' Seminar Neo-Carbon Energy Project LUT, Lappeenranta 29 th - 30 th August 2016
WP1 creates the big picture: How could the neo-carbon energy system transform society by 2050? WP1 UTU/FFRC: Sirkka Heinonen (WP Leader) Joni Karjalainen Juho Ruotsalainen Marjukka Parkkinen Merja Lang Sakari Nisula VTT: Tiina Koljonen Lassi Similä Juha Forsström LUT: Jarmo Partanen Samuli Honkapuro Probe the societal ecosystem and social relations of neo-carbon powered futures to provide a societal and business vision. Anticipate such futures with tentative product, service and social innovations. New opportunities and perspectives for citizens, decision-makers and businesses.
New, refined tasks based on work so far: Task 1.1 Neo-carbon energy vision Task 1.2 Neo-carbon powered social futures 2050 Task 1.3 Neo-carbon energy market & game-changing actors (VTT & LUT) Task 1.4 Opportunities for Finnish businesses emerging through case countries
OUTCOMES
Article Breyer, C., Heinonen, S. & Ruotsalainen, J. (2016). New consciousness: A societal and energetic vision for rebalancing humankind within the limits of planet Earth. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. Article in press. - To show how a 100% renewable energy system could be realised - To show how the development of ICTs, together with distributed, clean and cheap energy, could lead to shared consciousnesses and identities by 2050 - To indicate how this new consciousness could aid in achieving sustainable lifestyles, and stimulate new economic growth and societal progress
Futures Clinique II: The Fuzzy Futures of Neo-Carbon Work (April 2016) The workshop groups anticipated the futures of work in peer-to-peer, neo-carbon society of the future. The results have been documented and analysed, and the report will be published soon.
The results of the futures clinique point to a postwork future of a neo-carbon society, where work as a separate sphere in society has more or less withered away. Automated, neo-carbon powered workplaces could transform as communities found today outside the economic sector. As a consequence, the economic life would be defined and driven partly by other than economic goals and values moral, cultural, aesthetic, and social.
Futures Clinique II: The Fuzzy Futures of Neo-Carbon Work (April 2016) An article Ruotsalainen et al. (2016). Peer-topeer work in the digital meaning society 2050 has also been written based on the futures clinique results. The article is submitted to European Journal of Futures Research (EJFR).
The futures clinique results inspired new themes for the Neo- Carbon Vision
Abundance Neo-Carbon promises material abundance (cheap, abundant and decentralised energy, and synthetic materials). What are the social implications of abundance? How will companies transform in such a future? Will new forms of immaterial inequality arise?
Artificial intelligence and robotisation If AIs and robots are embedded everywhere in our environments, cheap and clean energy are needed. If Neo-Carbon enables ubiquitous AIs and robots, what will the social implications be?
International Symposium Clean Disruption for Abundant Futures 7th-8th June 2016 Kiasma, Helsinki Two-day Futures Clinique III on the topics of energy, internet, clean disruption and futures of communities. The objective was to address possible futures and related societal transition towards the convergence of energy and internet.
Keynote speakers José Cordeiro Clean Disruption EnerNet and Energularity Sirkka Heinonen What is Disruption? How to use futures methods? Christian Breyer How to reach 100% renewable energy system? Pasi Vainikka Ten Worst Ideas in Energy Future Markku Wilenius What is selforganising work? 29.8.2016
International Symposium Clean Disruption for Abundant Futures 7th-8th June 2016 Kiasma, Helsinki The event was also a Summer School for doctoral and master s students of futures studies and other related disciplines. José Cordeiro from the Singularity University gave two keynote speaks on the internet of energy and energularity. The results will be documented and published as a report
Futures Images of Group Work at Clean Disruption for Abundant Futures 7th-8th June 2016 Kiasma, Helsinki Society On-demand Ethical Optimization Storytellers & Plastic Smiths Not Sharing My Headache Meaningful Living New Entrepreneurial Lifestyle The results will be documented and published as a report
Business and Science: Leading the Way to Sustainable Energy 2 nd Stakeholder Forum of the Africa-EU Energy Partnership 16-17 May 2016 Milan, Italy http://www.iisd.ca/energy/aeep/forum2/ http://www.aeep-forum.org/en/youth/young-scientists-and-entrepreneurs
Submitted paper: Using Deliberative Foresight to envision a Neo- Carbon Energy Innovation Ecosystem Case Kenya Evaluating Renewable Energy Approaches and Business Models Idea: It is possible to compare renewable energy approaches (e.g. business models or projects) Data: Four cases were selected based on their societal significance Objective: To understand what is actually lasting and transformative change? What differences in impacts do innovation, projects or collaborations have and why?
Evaluating Renewable Energy Approaches and Business Models 2p Excellent (max.) 1.5p Very good 1.0p Moderate 0.5p Poor 0p Dissatisfactory (min.) NB. Selected cases from Kenya represent realized approaches (more innovative ones may already be on their way) (Submitted paper)
Case M-Kopa Solar in Kenya 6.0 / 8.0 points http://www.m-kopa.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/mkopaiii_aug14_278.jpg Deliberative foresight 1.5 / 2.0 p Transformative potential 2.0 / 2.0 p Innovation ecosystem 1.0 / 2.0 p Sustainability 1.5 / 2.0 p + Corporate foresight + Design thinking + Testing model with feedback + User needs + Affordability + Household RE & decentral. ICT + Low-income groups + High impact + Green business models linkages + Competitions + Environm. CO2 + Social + Economic? Cultural
NEXT STEPS
An article on how changes in energy systems relate to social and cultural changes literature survey
Expert survey on the Neo-Carbon Scenarios 2050 Link open 21 st July until 8 th August Millennium Project and other experts from case countries invited Ongoing analysis
EXPERT SURVEY AS INTERNATIONAL QUESTIONNAIRE Questions on who are the changemakers Which scenarios are probable, preferable Sample questions: What would need to change in your country for radical startups to flourish? How can society support these DIY engineers?
URBAN TRANSITIONS GLOBAL SUMMIT SHANGHAI 5 9.9.2016 Energising peer-to-peer urban futures Challenges for urban governance (Heinonen, Parkkinen, Karjalainen, Ruotsalainen): abstract for oral presentation and full paper submitted Four themes: 1) Economically competitive urban futures 2) Sustainable and resilient urban futures 3) Equitable and inclusive urban societies 4) Digitally supported urban futures Topics related to energy: energy sources/demand/management, energy poverty, energy security, regulation of energy, smart energy 16 keynotes, incl.: Herbert Girardet: Towards the Regenerative City Christoph Reinhart: Urban energy systems Towards more sustainable city and neighborhood design
SUMMARY WP1 2 nd term: Societal vision (Task 1.1) Social implications of energy and changemakers (1.2) Scenario feedback and case country opportunities (1.4) Forthcoming articles: Energy futures and social change, energy innovation ecosystem, peer-to-peer work in a RE world Abundance, artificial intelligence (AI) and robotisation as emerging topics International Dissemination Case Chile Neo-Carbon Futures Clinique 24 October 2016, Santiago, Chile Consejo Foresight Conference 26-27 October 2016, Santiago, Chile Take note: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-19/solar-sells-in-chile-forcheapest-ever-at-half-the-price-of-coal
THANK YOU! WP 1 Finland Futures Research Centre FFRC team sirkka.heinonen@utu.fi joni.karjalainen@utu.fi juho.ruotsalainen@utu.fi marjukka.s.parkkinen@utu.fi
NEW PUBLICATION Breyer C, Heinonen S and Ruotsalainen J (2016). New consciousness: A societal and energetic vision for rebalancing humankind within the limits of planet earth, Technological Forecasting and Social Change (Article in Press) http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2016.06.029 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/s004016251630138x