Front Digital page Strategy and leadership Who am I? Prof. Dr. Bob de Wit What concerns me? - How to best lead a firm - How to design the strategy process - How to best govern a country - How to adapt business models What do I do? - Director, Strategy Works / Strategy Academy - Professor, Nyenrode Business University - Member, Rotterdam Economic Council - Author, Strategy: An International Perspective How to reach me? - +31 (0)6 5377 8151 - B.dewit@Nyenrode.nl
The basic strategy lingo explained Current situation Target Strategy Objective Vision 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2
TODAY Digitalization drives the evolution of demand Artificial Intelligence Purpose Digital Agility Industry Efficiency Trade Scale Subsistence Survival 3
Our distorted view of intelligence 2016 4
A more realistic view of intelligence 2025 5
Ontwikkeling van het ambtelijk apparaat Three reasons why today s transformations are not merely an extension of the Third wave but rather the arrival of a Fourth and distinct one: Digital space 1. VELOCITY The Digital Wave blurs the lines between the physical and digital spheres. 1. SCOPE Physical space 1. SYSTEMS IMPACT Source: Klaus Schwab, The Fourth Industrial Revolution (2016) 6
Why is everyone talking about digital? The speed of current breakthroughs has no historical precedent Compared to previous wave, the Fourth is evolving at an exponential rather than a linear pace Time to reach 50 million users 75 years 38 years 13 years 1. VELOCITY 4 years 3 years 1. SCOPE 1 year.75 year 35 days 5 days 1. SYSTEMS IMPACT Phone Radio TV ipod Internet Facebook Twitter Angry birds Pokemon Go Source: Citi GPS, Technology at Work (2015); Dobs, No Ordinary Disruption: The Four Global Forces Breaking All the Trends (2016) 7
Growth potential Growth potential Why is everyone talking about digital? Digital developments are disrupting almost every industry in every country Top mature industries by 2020 Top new industries by 2020 1. VELOCITY Aerospace & Defense Chemical, Materials & Food Electronics Oil & Gas Engineering & Construction Pharma & Healthcare Auto mobile ICT Energy & Power Urban Logistics Alternative energy 3D printing Cyber security Big Data Managed services Virtual commerce Cloud computing 1. SCOPE Metals & Mining Waste management Wellness industry 1. SYSTEMS IMPACT Market size potential Market size potential Source: Frost & Sullivan, Mega trends (2015); Bloomberg industry data 8
Why is everyone talking about digital? Digital developments are disrupting almost every industry in every country Supply chain of steel stockholdings 1. VELOCITY 1. SCOPE Suppliers Stockholding Customers No exchange on available inventory, lead time, etc. No exchange on available products, contracts, etc. 1. SYSTEMS IMPACT Source: http://www.kloeckner.com/en/strategy.html 9
Why is everyone talking about digital? Digital developments are disrupting almost every industry in every country Industry platform of steel stockholdings Stockholding 1. VELOCITY Industry platform 1. SCOPE Suppliers Customers 1. SYSTEMS IMPACT 3th party platforms 3th party logistics Source: http://www.kloeckner.com/en/strategy.html 10
Why is everyone talking about digital? Digital developments are disrupting almost every industry in every country Next game changers (beyond BRICS) 1. VELOCITY Poland $1041 billion Turkey $2441 billion 1. SCOPE Mexico $2327 billion Egypt $653 billion Thailand $772 billion Vietnam $323 billion Phillepines $483 billion Indonesia $3071 billion 1. SYSTEMS IMPACT South Africa $635 billion Source: International Monetary Fund country data; Oxford Economics 11
Technologies that shape the digital age The breadth and depth of these changes herald the transformation of entire systems of production, management, and governance. What are we talking about? 1. VELOCITY Mobile Internet, cloud Technology 1 Processing power, Big Data 2 New energy supplies and tech. 3 Internet of things 4 Sharing economy, crowdsourcing 5 1. SCOPE Robotics, autonomous transport 6 Artificial intelligence 7 Adv. Manufacturing, 3D printing 8 Adv. Materials, biotechnology 9 Current impact Impact 2015-2017 Impact 2018-2020 Impact 2021-2025 1. SYSTEMS IMPACT Source: Future of jobs survey, World Economic Forum 12
Mobile Internet, cloud Technology 1 1 Monitoring 1000s of sensors Processing power, Big Data 2 New energy supplies and tech. 3 Internet of things 4 3 Decentralized energy production 9 Personalized medicine 7 Companion robot Pepper 2 Personalized policy Sharing economy, crowdsourcing 5 Robotics, autonomous transport 6 8 Fab-Lab local 3D printing Artificial intelligence 7 6 Self driving car 5 Social entrepreneurship Adv. Manufacturing, 3D printing 8 4 Parking monitoring Adv. Materials, biotechnology 9 Source: Proprietary 13
Customers have a different understanding of value Personal Real-time Everywhere 14
Businesses need to create value differently Failing to be personalized, real-time and everywhere implies inability to deliver value 15
To meet demanding customer expectations, businesses adopt digital means Better understand end-consumers needs Involve end-consumers in the value delivery process 16
In the digital age, consumers can create value in three ways An employee at a company Providing access through companies platforms Creating value independently 17
Digitalizing businesses destroys jobs Digitalization decreases the quantity of jobs Computer & Mathematical + 3.21 % Architecture & Engineering Management +.97 % + 2.71 % Business & Financial Operations Sales +.70 % +.46 % Installation & Maintanance -.15 % Construction & Extraction Art, Design, Entertainment, Sports & Media Manufacturing & Production - 1.63 % -.93 % - 1.03 % Office & Administrative Source: Future of jobs survey, World Economic Forum - 4.91 18
Portugal Ireland Finland Norway Holland Greece United Kingdom Sweden Germany Spain Belgium Denmark France Austria Italy United States Digitalizing businesses destroys jobs Digitalization impacts the quality of jobs 20 15 10 Lower-class jobs Middle-class jobs Upper-class jobs 5 0-5 - 10-15 - 20 Source: Future of jobs survey, World Economic Forum 19
Digitalizing businesses creates jobs Digitalization leads to the emergence of new occupations Digitalization leads to new industries Web design Preventive, personalized medicine Data mining Video streaming Professional Youtuber Virtual reality Digital marketeer Food analytics & Tech App developer Corporate Wellness Source: Oxford, The future of Employment (2015) 20
New occupations and industries do not address job loss and polarization Todays new industries % of new industry titles % of US employment % with college degree Internet publishing, broadcasting and web search portals 85.7 %.06 % 69.6 % Online shopping 42.8 %.08 % 49.7 % Data hosting, processing and related services 32.0 %.08 % 48.0 % Online auctions 66.6 %.01 % 52.2 % Source: Berger & Frey (2014b) 21
In the digital age, competences drive performance. Enable employees to continuously develop skills and competences Subject knowledge Soft skills 1 Complex problem solving Subject knowledge acquired during the first year of a fouryear technical degree 2 3 4 Critical thinking Creativity People management 5 Collaboration 6 Emotional intelligence 50% Outdated by the time students graduate 7 8 9 Judgement and decision making Service orientation Negotiation 10 Cognitive flexibility Source: Future of jobs survey, World Economic Forum 22
In the digital age, soft factors drive motivation Motivate and inspire employees towards achieving the desired results - Pay - Promotion - Recognition - Self-development - Value engagement - Work-life balance Top-down control Joint purpose Source: Future of jobs survey, World Economic Forum 23
Why digital strategies fail Its not just about technology It is also a management and people challenge 77% Lack of having the right skills and competences to implement them 55% Lack of having the right organizational culture in place Source: Capgemini Consulting & MIT, 2016 24
Leadership implications Current situation Strategy Vision Corporate strategy Current situation Way-of-working Long-term goal Operational plan Current situation Organizational development Personal aim Personal development 25
The Vision Map & The Action Map Action map Vision map Action map How to enhance pride How to exploit opportunities How to realize dreams Current situation Pride Opportunities Dreams Objective Disappointments Threats Nightmares How to beat disappointments How to prevent threats How to fight nightmares Vision 26