Anticipatory hybrid governance testing a conceptual model for a peer-to-peer-driven urban landscape Joni Karjalainen, Marjukka Parkkinen, Sirkka Heinonen & Juho Ruotsalainen joni.karjalainen@utu.fi University of Turku, Finland Futures Research Centre, Project researcher University of Sussex, Science Policy Research Unit, SPRU, Visiting Fellow Thursday 9 November 2017 Anticipation Conference: Session 33 Senate House, London
Neo-Carbon Energy Transformative Energy Futures 2050 (NEO-FORE) The foresight part of the project has aimed to study a possibly distributed energy production system, related economic, political, cultural and social changes, driven by low-carbon technologies and emerging issues Key research question: what kinds of novel business opportunities, organisational models and lifestyles does the peer-to-peer neo-carbon society enable to companies, citizens and society? See: www.neocarbonenergy.fi University of Turku, Finland Futures Research Centre (FFRC) Professor Sirkka Heinonen Project researchers Juho Ruotsalainen, Marjukka Parkkinen and Joni Karjalainen Tekes The Finnish Funding Agency for Innovation
Economically viable city centre and urbanizing downtown (ENCORE) The aim of the project has been to explore the novel success factors of city centres and illustrate the future possibilities of urban planning Key research question: how the interaction between different actors (citizens, city management, companies, and organisations) can improve the attractiveness and liveability of a city? University of Turku, Finland Futures Research Centre (FFRC) Professor Sirkka Heinonen Project researchers Juho Ruotsalainen, Marjukka Parkkinen and Joni Karjalainen Turku Urban Research Programme
FORESIGHT METHODOLOGY In ENCORE project, building on previous research, urban futures were probed using three analytical lenses 1. meaningful urban environment 2. grassroots approaches and local democracy 3. hybrid spaces Emphasis of horizon scanning in emerging issues and especially weak signals, early signs of phenomena with potential for strategic relevance. 100 collected, 10 more closely examined Not only identification, interpretation of weak signals is important Heinonen & Hiltunen 2012, Hiltunen 2010, Kuusi & Hiltunen 2007; Hiltunen 2016, Lesca & Lesca 2012, Mendonça et al 2012
WAITING WALL Waiting Wall, art by Alan Donohoe and Steven Parker in Brighton train station. A digital display displaying confessions of anonymous people. The contents of these messages vary from work-related confessions to disclosures of love life and worries about health. Contemporary adaptation of Jerusalem s Wailing Wall.
UVAs in MEDELLÍN UVAs, Unidades de Vida Articulada (Articulated Life Units) can be described as neighbourhood-level urban interventions. In Colombia, the City of Medellín experienced a metamorphosis from a city with high criminal rates into one of the most liveable and equitable urban environments. Various infrastructural improvements were made, with an emphasis on sustainability and inclusiveness. The idea of UVAs is to create public spaces that bring further opportunities for the citizens. http://www.archdaily.com/782851/uva-el-paraiso-edu-empresa-de-desarrollo-urbano-de-medellin
SELF-PRODUCERS OF ENERGY Utility bought electricity has placed citizens as passive users. PROSUMER = PRODUCER+CONSUMER Energy prosumerism would allow citizens to self-produce their own energy. Further transformations could come with selfdriving, electric cars and eco-friendly technologies. The cost of solar PV is now less than 1/100 of what it was in the 1970s, in use already in the 1990s, but have begun to spread only in recent years. China has now risen as a massmanufacturer. Emergence from a marginal phenomenon to a trend, the technology is increasingly accessible to citizens. Photo: BP
Self-organising and activism in a peer-to-peer society 1) community activism 2) sharing economy, platform economy (e.g. community exchange, neighbourhood rental services) 3) spatial activism (e.g. art projects as activism, squatting) 4) ICT-aided digital activism 5) activism in support of other activities (Pasi Mäenpää & Maija Faehnle)
PEER-TO-PEER City as commons: city environment created and upheld by its citizens and community groups Attention to the growing recognition and potential of self-organizing and P2P networks in shaping urban futures Self-organizing peer-to-peer networks networks (no central and hierarchical coordination) produce commons freely, openly exchanged resources (cf. Linux, Wikipedia) Read: Michel Bauwens (2003), Yochai Benkler (2006), David Harvey (2013)
WHAT IS THE ROLE OF DECISION-MAKERS? Inspire people from the bottom-up Communicate governance = steering the society Overcome the silo effect Recognise power and constant change as crucial elements of organizational life
EMERGING GOVERNANCE APPROACHES EMERGING GOVERNANCE THEORIES? Multi-level governance (Hooghe & Marks 2001; Marquardt 2017) Deliberative (Dryzek 2012; Hendriks 2009) Adaptive (Chaffin 2014; Hurlbert & Gupta 2016) Reflexive (Voß et al., 2011) Anticipatory (Barben et al. 2008; Guston 2014, Poli 2017) Hybrid (Colona & Jaffe 2016)
ANTICIPATORY GOVERNANCE Anticipatory governance as 1) how research, development, application and use of a technology are developed and steered, between adapting to a coming revolution and halting development in the context of emerging technologies (Barben, Fisher, Selin, & Guston, 2008). 2) a stance in urban planning approaches (Quay 2010) 3) bringing forward engagement, with a whole-of-government (governance) approach to complex issues, to be cultivated as a systemic culture (Fuerth 2009) (Poli 2017)
HYBRID GOVERNANCE Hybrid = questioning conventional structures, ways of organising, a phenomenon combining previously distinct spheres Attempt to understand the mutual entanglement of actors through hybrid governance arrangements Added value of the hybridity approach lies exactly in the blurring of lines between the different actors involved (Colona & Jaffe 2016)
ANTICIPATORY HYBRID GOVERNANCE Proposing a set of principles: 1. accounts systematically for foresight knowledge, prepares for alternative outcomes and risks 2. allows for flexibility in the governance approaches for best possible outcomes, with multi-level actors 3. harnesses the logics of peer-to-peer and digitalisation 4. allows spontaneous behaviour, such as piloting potential solutions 5. is to be cultivated across all organizational levels, as a systemic culture
ANTICIPATORY HYBRID GOVERNANCE: IMPLICATIONS When analyzing weak signals through an anticipatory lens of governance, the following questions are important: What implications will the occurrence of these weak signals have on urban governance? How should urban governance react to such changes? How to follow these suggested principles?
Conducting foresight systematically Pioneering for a diverse, liveable society and culture Collaborating with citizens as partners across conventional siloes Harnessing the logic and tools of digital communications and peer-to-peer (P2P) networks Defining actions based on ecological, social sustainability and cultural diversity Model of anticipatory hybrid governance
DISCUSSION We propose anticipatory hybrid governance for identifying weak signals, designing new principles allowing a range of governance approaches for proactively shaping the future. What gaps could potentially emerge? Combining anticipation and hybridity is appealing for peer-topeer futures. In a self-organizing city, could the private strengthen over the public sphere? If so, is this a desirable or non-desirable future?
KEY REFERENCES Batty, Michael (2013). The New Science of Cities. MIT Press, Massachusetts. Benkler, Y. (2006) The Wealth of Networks How Social Production Transforms Markets and Freedom. London: Yale University Press. Budhathoki, N.R & Haythornthwaite, C. (2012) Motivation for Open Collaboration: Crowd and Community Models and the Case of OpenStreetMap. American Behavioral Scientist, 57:5, 548 575. Colona, F. & Jaffe R. (2016) Hybrid Governance Arrangements. The European Journal of Development Research 28: 2, pp 175 183 Forte, A. & Lampe, C. (2013). Defining, Understanding, and Supporting Open Collaboration: Lessons From the Literature. American Behavioral Scientist, 57:5, 535 547. Guston, D.H. (2014) Understanding Anticipatory Governance. Social Studies of Science, 44: 2, 218-242. Girardet, Herbert (2014). Creating Regenerative Cities. Hiltunen, E. (2010) Weak Signals in Organizational Futures Learning, Doctoral dissertation, Helsinki: Aalto University School of Economics, http://epub.lib.aalto.fi/fi/diss/?cmd=show&dissid=400 Harvey, D. (2012) Rebel Cities: From the Right to the City to the Urban Revolution. London: Verso. Jacobs, Jane (1961) The Death and Life of Great American Cities Karinen R, Guston DH (2010) Toward anticipatory governance: The experience with nanotechnology. In: Kaiser M, Kurath M, Maasen S, Rehmann- Sutter C (eds.) Governing Future Technologies: Nanotechnology and the Rise of an Assessment Regime. Dordrecht: Springer, pp. 217 232. Kostakis, V. & Bauwens, M. (2014). Network Society and Future Scenarios for a Collaborative Economy. Palgrave Macmillan, New York. Pierre, J. (2014) Can Urban Regimes Travel in Time and Space? Urban Regime Theory, Urban Governance Theory, and Comparative Urban Politics Poli, R. (2017) Introduction to Anticipation Studies. Anticipation Science 1. Springer. 275 p, 10.1007/978-3-319-63023-6
ENCORE and NEO-CARBON ENERGY Research Projects: https://www.utu.fi/en/units/ffrc/research/project-archive/foresight-nat/pages/encore.aspx https://www.utu.fi/en/units/ffrc/research/projects/energy/pages/neo-fore.aspx Peer-reviewed articles Heinonen S, Parkkinen M, Karjalainen J, Ruotsalainen J (2017), Energising Peer-to-Peer Urban Futures - Challenges for Urban Governance. Procedia Engineering. 198, 267-282 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proeng.2017.07.160 Heinonen, S. & Minkkinen, M. (2016). Interpreting built cityscape: Deconstructing the metaphorical messages of futuristic buildings, Futures, ISSN 0016-3287, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2016.03.015. Juho Ruotsalainen, Sirkka Heinonen, Joni Karjalainen and Marjukka Parkkinen (2016), Peer-to-peer work in the digital meaning society 2050, European Journal for Futures Research 4:10, Dec 2016, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40309-016-0092-2 Open access link: http://paperity.org/p/78129453/peer-to-peerwork-in-the-digital-meaning-society-2050 Ruotsalainen Juho, Joni Karjalainen, Michael Child & Sirkka Heinonen (2017) Culture, values, lifestyles, and power in energy futures: a critical peer-to-peer vision for renewable energy, Energy Research & Social Science 34: 231 239, http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/s2214629617302402
Joni Karjalainen, Project researcher University of Turku, Finland Futures Research Centre University of Sussex, Science Policy Research Unit, SPRU joni.karjalainen@utu.fi Twitter: @jonikarjalainen researchgate.net/profile/joni_karjalainen https://www.utu.fi/en/units/ffrc/research/project-archive/foresight-nat/pages/encore.aspx https://www.utu.fi/en/units/ffrc/research/projects/energy/pages/neo-fore.aspx Read more: Heinonen S, Parkkinen M, Karjalainen J, Ruotsalainen J (2017), Energising Peer-to-Peer Urban Futures - Challenges for Urban Governance. Procedia Engineering. 198, 267-282 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proeng.2017.07.160