QUID 2017, pp. 870-875, Special Issue N 1- ISSN: 1692-343X, Medellín-Colobia MODELING OF EXPECTATIONS OF ECONOMIC AGENTS AS INSTRUMENT OF DIAGNOSTICS OF ECONOMIC CYCLES (ON THE EXAMPLE OF THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY) (Recibido el 22-05-2017. Aprobado el 31-08-2017) Marat Rashitovich Safiullin Kazan Federal University, the vice rector of the Kazan federal university concerning econoic and strategic developent, e-ail: Leonid.Elshin@tatar.ru Leonid Alekseevich Elshin, Kazan Federal University, Center of strategic estiates and forecasts of Institute of anageent, econoy and finance; State Budgetary Institution Center of Perspective Econoic Researches of Acadey of Sciences of the Republic of Tatarstan Abtract. The eerging trends in the developent of socio-econoic systes characterized by a high level of the dynaics of institutional transforations and their corresponding acroeconoic generations, based on progressive fors of creating value added, require iproved approaches to the analysis ethods of their developent. If previously the processes of econoy industrialization, ipleentation of large-scale decisions, high localization of econoic processes have been the priority developent directions, now the following strategic developent guidelines coe to the fore: the foration and large-scale replication of local low concentrated growth points; diversification of business activity; developent and disseination of technological, institutional, product changes; developent of social paraeters of econoic growth, based, inter alia, on the principles of environental friendliness of econoic and operational activities, etc. The coplexity and ultidiensionality of the socio-econoic developent processes creates a basis for iproving the traditional approaches to the theory of odeling and forecasting the econoic growth and, consequently, cyclical developent of the econoy. Strengthening the econoy globalization processes and siultaneously regionalization, foration of coplex and dynaic structures that for crisis phenoena actualizes the issue of odern regulation of the cyclical developent of the econoy, whose solution becoes difficult within the fraework of classical ethods of the theory of cyclis. The traditional approaches to odeling the cyclical developent of the econoy can lead to a decrease in the quality of predictive odels built on the basis of extrapolation ethods with the use of scenario forecasts for the developent of arket and institutional factors - drivers of cycle phase changes. The foregoing eans that the current developents of the forecasting odels under consideration carry a whole range of risks associated with the accuracy of prediction and anticipation of cyclical fluctuations. In this regard, there is a need to develop, scientifically substantiate (verify) and approbate the odels of cyclical fluctuations based on such factors that would have a high sensitivity level to changes in the external and internal environent of the econoic syste and had a high level of predictability of the cyclical trends. In the course the research, we scientifically substantiated and tested the odel of cyclical fluctuations of the econoy constructed on the basis of an integral cross-correlation indicator that characterizes the expectations of econoic agents in a concentrated for. Keywords: short-ter cycles, forecasting, phase shifts, leading indicators, advanced developent cycles, taxonoic odeling ethod, developent institutions, structural shifts, expectations, cross-correlation analysis. Citar, estilo APA: Safiullin, M. & Elshin, L. (2017). Modeling of expectations of econoic agents as instruent of diagnostics of econoic cycles (on the exaple of the Russian econoy). Revista QUID (Special Issue). 870-875.
1. INTRODUCTION Traditional approaches to the interpretation of econoic cycles are based on the odeling of syste-foring acroeconoic factors that for the expectations of econoic agents. The fundaental difference between the Keynesian and neoclassical approaches is the interpretation odeling of these expectations, which on the one hand, are not rational in accordance with the Keynesian theory, and on the other hand, are extreely rational based on the views of neoclassicists. Despite the polarity of views between the representatives of Keynesianis and neoclassicis, expressed priarily in the interpretation of the expectations of econoic agents that deterine the paradig of odeling the cyclical developent of the econoy, their syste of identified factors generating the acroeconoic generations of these cycles unites the. They include fluctuations in the interest rates, oney supply, eployent, external conuncture factors, etc. In essence, we can state that the traditional approaches to odeling the econoic growth operate with the econoic factors, which, to our ind, narrows the research field in the context of deterining the expectations of econoic agents whose fluctuations for the econoic cycles to a significant extent. In a odern econoy characterized by a high level of globalization and integration into the syste of world value added chains, social responsibility of the state, developent of regulatory institutions and acroeconoic generations based, for exaple, on the principles of "green" econoy, etc., the interpretation of the econoic entities behavior, based on expectations, cannot be liited to a set of exclusively econoic factors. There is a need to develop the ultifactorial odels that take into account not only the econoic paraeters undoubtedly having a significant ipact on the expectations of econoic agents, but also institutional, social and other factors that set the tone for the cyclical developent of socioeconoic systes in any ways. A prediction of acroeconoic generations on the basis of nature and logic knowledge of phase shifts within the generated econoic cycles is of great interest within the fraework of studying the theory of cyclis. At the sae tie, the overwheling aority of works are focused on the fact that the character and dynaics of cyclical developent in the past will deterine the nature and dynaics of cyclical developent in the future. However, in our opinion, this approach causes a lot of discussion issues. 2. METHODS Thus, the in-depth study of the processes of econoic developent of the territories and the generated econoic cycles corresponding to the requires a fundaental analysis of a wide range of factors that deterine their sensitivity to the, as well as predeterine the foration of channels for the spread of cyclical fluctuations of other econoic systes that are utually integrated into a particular econoic syste (Sauelson, 1939) (Petrosyan, (2002) (Viktorov, 2003). Cognition and scientific substantiation of this process will allow optiizing the solution of a nuber of issues (in the field of regulation and "anual anageent" of the phases of econoic cycles) in the case of occasional need to ipart additional ipulses to the dynaics of econoic developent of a syste that is in a certain cyclic phase at a certain historical period (Lucar, 1980) (Kaldor, 1940). At the sae tie, the use of ore factors and explanatory variables in the odel for deterining and identifying the econoic cycles ay lead to a nuber of known issues that reduce the quality of statistical estiates (Safiullin, Elshin & Prygunova, 2015). Thus, there arises the need to select a very liited set of such exogenous factors that would copletely correspond to the solution of the issue posed. In our opinion, the optial solution to the issue posed is to use an integral indicator in the odel, which is an expression of the whole set of paraeters in a concentrated for that characterize the echaniss of acroeconoic, social, institutional and other types of generations. A quantitative assessent of the expectations of econoic agents - the ain drivers of phase change in the cyclical developent of the econoy - ay act as such integrated indicator. In this case, the expectations of econoic agents need to be odeled as an integral function of weighted coponents characterizing the institutional and conunctural paraeters of the socio-econoic environent developent. In the course of study, we developed and ustified a structural and logical odel for diagnosing the advanced developent cycles, which allows deterining, on the basis of the advanced
developent indicators, the cyclical nature of the eerging trends in econoic systes characterized by different types of structural disequilibriu. The ost iportant condition for the developent of the odel of cycles for the advanced developent is the use of factors that are extreely advanced in relation to the trends in the econoic dynaics of the national (regional) syste that have developed over tie. First of all, this is due to the fact that the theory of rational expectations lies at the basis of the ethodology developed. In this regard, it is advisable to develop a odel that would reflect the current expectations of econoic agents, which, in turn, would reflect the ost probable paraeters of the syste functioning in the future. The use of factors that would have a parallel trend with the general econoic dynaics will not allow solving the task posed. Not to ention the extent to which it would not be true and counterproductive to use the factors that are lagging behind. Cross-correlation analysis serves as an effective factor filtering tool by the criterion of their advanced developent (Finn & Prescott, 1982) (Prescott, 1986). In accordance with the above-entioned research concept, we developed a set of indicators grouped into sub-indices, reflecting the expectations of econoic agents and deterining the coposite advanced developent index (Table 1). Table 1: The list of sub-indices involved in odeling the expectations of econoic agents No. Sub-index nae 1 Urban developent index (I1) 2 Huan capital index (I2) 3 Production-resource sub-index (I3) 4 5 Sub-index of the quality of institutional and cultural developent of a syste (I4) Sub-index of econoic activity of the econoic entities (I5) 6 Research capacity sub-index (I6) 7 Capital change sub-index (I7) All the factors selected for constructing the coposite sub-indices were presented in the for of chain growth rates at coparable prices. 3. RESULTS The results of cross-correlation analysis of the statistical series under consideration, which include the effective factor (the reference series), on the one hand, and the tie series of the analyzed factors under study, on the other hand, are presented in Table 2. Table 2: Coposition of factors characterized by advanced dynaics of the relative reference series (GDP) in the context of enlarged leading indices No. Factor nae Lag value, nuber of years Shortterterter Mediu- Long- cycle cycle cycle I. Urban developent change index 1. Nuber of rural population 1, 2 3, 4 II. Huan capital index 2. Nuber of graduates fro secondary schools 3 12 3. Nuber of graduates fro higher educational institutions 2 III. Production index 4. Coodity stocks 1 5. Freight turnover of otor transport 1 6. Mining process 1, 2 3 7. Freights transported by rail 1.2 IV. Social well-being index 8. Nuber of hospitals 11 9. Nuber of theatres 2 10. Nuber of cultural and leisure type institutions 1, 2 3, 4 V. Econoic activity index 11. Investents in the fixed assets 8, 9 12. Consuer price index 1, 2 3 13. Monetary incoes of the population 2 VI. Research capacity index 14. Nuber of scientists 1, 2 4 15. Nuber of research institutes 1, 2 16. Nuber of proposals received in the field of R&D 9 17. Internal costs for the research and developent 3 12 VII. Capital change index 18. Oil price 9 19. Interest rate level 1 3 According to the results of cross-correlation analysis, the final coposition of factors included 19 units. At the sae tie, the factors that have a short-ter ipact on the behavior odel of econoic agents include those that are copletely consistent with the existing theoretical and ethodological approaches to odeling the socalled short-ter Kitchin cycles (Charles, 1982) (fluctuations in business and investent activity, introduction of innovations with a short-ter payback period, inflationary pressure, aount of stocks, fluctuations in eployent, etc.). It should be noted that one of the ain results was that the factors characterizing the institutional and cultural potential of the syste possessed the signs of advanced developent. The observed phenoenon
indicates that the institutional and cultural factors influence both exclusively onetary factors and acroeconoic factors (this is perissible, and this is often found in the econoetric odels (Modigliani & Bruberg, 1954) (Lucas, 1976). Deterination of the set of factors involved in the developent of the odel of cycles of advanced developent ade it possible to ove on to the subsequent stages of calculations aied at assessing the aggregate values of grouped indicators subindices, which deterine the integral indicator of econoic activity of the econoic entities. To calculate the integral index, it is necessary to isolate the enlarged coponents, which are subindices in their essence, fro the total nuber of coponents. According to the generally accepted ethodology for calculating the generalized or integral indices, if the calculated indicator includes ore than one factor, it consists of the su of interediate indicators ultiplied by the weight: I ki К 1 R, i i (1) where Iki value of the k-th coponent in the i-th year, Ri value of the -th indicator in the i-th year, Ki weight ratio of the -th value. The ain condition that should be necessarily fulfilled is the equality of the su of weight ratios to one. The taxonoic ethod fors the basis of the calculation of sub-index weight ratios deterining the value of the coposite advanced developent index (Mkhitaryan, Arkhipova & Sirotin, 2008). It is based on deterining the distances between the ultidiensional space points, the diension of which is deterined by the nuber of factors involved in the odel. The distances between the factors are deterined by the Equation 2: 1 ars bir bis, r, s 1, n i1 (2) where a rs - the distances between the factors r and s. The final for of the distance atrix between the factors will have the following for: 0 a21... an1 a 12 0...... 0 a1 n a 2n... 0. (3) After deterining the values of the distance atrix, it shall be calculated the so-called critical distance, characterizing the axiu distance between two factors: a крит ax in a (4) r s rs Further, the su of all distances not exceeding the critical distance is found for each factor: p a s1 s, для a s a крит (5) Then the weight ratios are calculated by the Equation 6: w p p (6) In the for of a forula, (Equation 7) the calculation of the coposite advanced developent index is as follows: I, i W k*iki W ф*iфi W р*i рi Wп*Iпi where Ii - value of SOP; i value of a period (of the onth in our case); I1(i) urban developent index in the i-th year; I2(i) huan capital index in the i-th year; (7) I3(i) production and resource developent index in the i-th year; I4(i) institutional and cultural developent index in the i-th year;
I5(i) econoic activity developent sub-index in the i-th year; I6(i) research capacity sub-index in the i-th year; I7(i) - capital change sub-index in the i-th year. W1, W2, W3, W4, W5, W6, W7 weight ratios of the corresponding indices. The calculation results for short-ter cycles of advanced developent applied to the Russian econoy in the period of 1996-2015 are shown in Figure 2. Figure 2. The advanced developent cycles of the Russian econoy in the period fro 1996 to 2015 (Advanced developent index) 4. CONCLUSIONS Based on the calculations of the advanced developent indices for the Russian econoy, the dynaics of short-ter cycles of Russia's advanced developent, consisting of two phases, is presented in Table 3. Table 3: The advanced developent short-ter cycles of the Russian econoy in the period fro 1994 to 2015. Advanced developent cycle Downward phase Upward phase 1994 1997 1994-1995 1996-1997 1998 2002 1998-2000 2000 2002 2002 2009 2002-2004 2004-2009 2009 2013 2009-2011 2011 2013 2013-2018, 2019* 2013-2017* 2017-2019* * Evaluation It shall also be borne in ind that the Russian econoy, as it has been previously noted, synchronously cobines the principles of arket and planned econoy, which of course cannot but affect the arrhythicity and duration of the observed cyclical fluctuations. As the share in the echaniss of econoic regulation of instruents attributed to the adinistrative and coand syste decreases, the observed arrhythia will decrease, and the classical echaniss of cyclical developent will becoe ore widespread. 5. SUMMARY The analysis results deonstrate that the short-ter cycles of the Russian econoy differ slightly fro the classic short-ter cycles of Kitchin, whose periodicity is fro 2 to 4 years. The revealed duration of the econoy cycles of the Russian Federation fluctuates in a rather wide range, depending on the corrective easures taken by the public authorities, as well as on the volatility of conuncture paraeters. Moreover, it shall also be borne in ind that the Russian econoy, as it has been previously noted, synchronously cobines the principles of arket and planned econoy, which of course cannot but affect the arrhythicity and duration of the observed cyclical fluctuations. Given that the short-ter cycles of advanced developent are presented in Figure 2, the real cyclical fluctuations in the Russian econoy have corresponding values of the years ahead of the dates of the phases of advanced developent cycles for 1-2 years. Thus, it is possible to predict, in accordance with the data on the adustents of advanced developent index, that the Russian econoy will enter a revival phase in 2016 (due to the fact that over the past two years (2014-2015) there has been a positive trend in the dynaics of advanced developent cycle). Following the logic of data extrapolation, as well as trends in the sinusoidal developent of the traectory of advanced developent cycles in the Russian econoy, it is highly probable that the revival phase will enter the growth phase in 2016-2017. Given the advanced nature of developent of the series obtained, real growth in the Russian econoy can be observed not earlier than in 2018-2019. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The work is perfored according to the Russian Governent Progra of Copetitive Growth of Kazan Federal University (26.8732.2017/8.9). The publication was prepared within the fraework of the scientific proect No.15-32-01353 supported by the Russian Huanitarian Science Foundation.
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