(2010) Foresight experiences and output in Europe and Latin America Rafael Popper www.iknowfutures.eu rafael.popper@manchester.ac.uk PREST - Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
(2010) What is Foresight?
(2010) What is foresight? Broadly speaking Foresight is not about forecasting by experts Prospective & Futures Foresight is more about sharing a vision and/or a set of objectives (for our children s future?) promoting trandisciplinarity research Foresight engaging key stakeholders, including decision- and policy-makers drawing upon and creating knowledge networks Policy-making & Planning Participation & Networking extending the breadth and depth of the knowledge base for decision-making organising a long term thinking process Foresight is a process
(2010) Foresight has emerged as a key instrument for the development and implementation of research and innovation policy. The main focus of activity has been at the national level. Governments have sought to set priorities, to build networks between science and industry and, in some cases, to change their research system and administrative culture. Foresight has been used as a set of technical tools, or as a way to encourage more structured debate with wider participation leading to the shared understanding of long-term issues.
1 (2010) The Many Faces of Foresight Ian Miles, Jennifer Cassingena Harper, Luke Georghiou, Michael Keenan and Rafael Popper Year Country Exercise/Programme Method(s) Since 1971 Japan 1st to 4th STA surveys Delphi 1991 Japan 5th STA survey Delphi USA Critical Technologies Others 1992 1993 1994 New Zealand Public Good Science Fund Others Germany BMFT, T 21 Others South Korea Foresight Exercise Others Germany Delphi 93 Delphi UK 1st TF Programme Delphi + Others France Technology Delphi Delphi 1995 France 100 Key Technologies Others 1996 1997 1998 1999 Japan Germany Mini-Delphi Delphi Austria Delphi Austria Delphi Japan 6th STA survey Delphi Australia Matching S&T to futures needs Others Spain ANEP Delphi + Others Hungary TF Programme (TEP) Delphi + Others Netherlands Technology Radar Others Finland SITRA Foresight Others South Africa Foresight Exercise Delphi + Others Germany Delphi 98 Delphi Ireland Technology Foresight Ireland Others New Zealand Foresight Exercise Others UK 2nd UK Foresight Programme Others Sweden 1st Swedish Foresight Others Spain OPTI Technology Foresight Delphi South Korea Korean Technology Delphi Delphi European foresight is arguably more diverse and fragmented both in terms of the actors involved and the methodology applied than in the USA. Foresight is characterised by: long-term orientation use of a range of formal tools & techniques for long-term analyses involvement of a wide pool of expertise and stakeholders crossing disciplinary boundaries and professional compartments Foresight Generations: 1st Generation: dynamics of technology 2nd Generation: technology and markets 3rd Generation: technology and markets + social dimension 4th Generation: distributed role in the STI system 5th Generation: combined with other strategic fora Rationales to argue the case for, and inform the design and use of, foresight Rationale 1: directing or prioritising investment in STI Rationale 2: building new networks & linkages around a common vision Rationale 3: extending the breadth of knowledge & visions of the future Rationale 4: bringing new actors into the strategic debate Rationale 5: improving policy-making and strategy formation Thailand ICT Foresight Delphi + Others China TF of Priority Industries Delphi + Others Year Country Ex Japan 7th Brazil Pro 2000 Brazil TF France 2n Portugal ET Venezuela TF 2001 Chile TF Germany FU Czech Republic TF Turkey Vi Colombia TF 2002 UK 3rd Cyprus, Estonia, Malta ef Denmark Na USA NI China TF 2003 Greece Te Norway Re Sweden 2n Japan 8th South Korea Ko Ukraine Uk 2004 France Fu France AG Venezuela TF Russia Ke Colombia TF Brazil Br 2005 Romania Ro Finland Fin Luxembourg FN USA 21 2006 Finland SIT Poland Po
2 (2010) From Futures to Foresight Ian Miles Policy-making Participative FORESIGHT Prospective Foresight is a set of approaches: Policy-making approaches ( longer-term perspective to strategic planning, allowing flexibility and preparedness to deal with uncertainty, disruptive events and innovations, enabling greater integration and joining-up of discrete and compartmentalised lines of action. Participative approaches involve interaction of wider ranges of stakeholders and experts in envisioning the future. This reflects several goals: enlarging the knowledge base, engagement, legitimacy; and enlistment, the mobilisation of those involved in the process as actors that can embed the messages of the programme into their own organisations/practices. Prospective approaches: matching of (present and forecast) opportunities and capabilities, framing a vision of desirable and feasible futures.
3(2010) Foresight Methodology Rafael Popper Pre-Foresight Recruitment Generation Action Renewal Rationales Sponsor(s) Objectives Orientation Resources - Core team * - Time - Money - Infrastructure - Cultural - Political Approaches Time horizon Methodology Workplan - Activities - Tasks - Deliverables Scope - Context - Coverage Project team * - skills Partners Sub-contractors Steering Group Experts - Thematic - Sectoral - Regional - National - International Champions - Thematic - International Panels Methodologist Facilitators Rapporteurs Existing knowledge is amalgamated, analysed and synthesised Tacit knowledge is codified New knowledge is generated (e.g. elucidation of emerging issues, creation of new visions and images of the future, etc.) KNOWLEDGE Advising - Strategies - Policy Options - Recommendations - Transforming - Networking - Policy-making - Decision-making - Step 3: generating (new) knowledge/visions through the exploration, analysis and anticipation of possible futures Step 2: mobilising and engaging key stakeholders Learning - Process - Products Evaluation - Impacts - Efficiency - Appropriateness Dissemination - Shared Visions - Foresight Culture - Step 5: evaluating Step 4: shaping the future through strategic planning Step 1: scanning and understanding major S&T developments, trends and issues
3(2010) Foresight Methodology Rafael Popper Pre-Foresight Recruitment Generation Action Renewal Rationales Project team * Sponsor(s) The Foresight - skills Objectives Partners Orientation Diamond Sub-contractors Resources Steering Group - Core team * Experts - Time - Thematic -Methods Money relying on - Sectoral - Infrastructure tacit knowledge of - Regional - Cultural people with - National - privileged Political access to - International Approaches Champions relevant information Time horizon - Thematic or with accumulated Methodology - Workplan knowledge International - Activities Panels - Tasks Methodologist - Deliverables Facilitators Scope Rapporteurs - Context - Coverage Methods relying heavily on codified knowledge, information, data, indicators, etc. Existing knowledge is amalgamated, analysed and synthesised Tacit knowledge is codified New knowledge is generated (e.g. elucidation of emerging issues, creation of new visions and images of the future, etc.) KNOWLEDGE Transforming - Networking - Policy-making - Decision-making - Step 3: generating (new) knowledge through the exploration, analysis and anticipation of possible futures Step 2: mobilising and engaging key stakeholders Advising Learning Methods relying on the originality - Strategies - Process and inventiveness of very skilled - Policy Options - Products - Recommendations individuals & their Evaluation tacit knowledge - - Impacts - Efficiency - Appropriateness Dissemination Methods - Shared Visions relying - Foresight heavily Culture on the - participation and shared Step 5: evaluating views of Step 4: shaping the future experts through and strategic planning non-experts R. Popper (2008) Step 1: scanning and understanding major S&T developments, trends and issues
(2010) Foresight is not mere fashion
(2010) Evolution of Programmes/Exercises Year Country Exercise/Programme Method(s) Since 1971 Japan 1st to 4th STA surveys Delphi 1991 Japan 5th STA survey Delphi USA Critical Technologies Others 1992 New Zealand Public Good Science Fund Others Germany BMFT, T 21 Others 1993 South Korea Foresight Exercise Others Germany Delphi 93 Delphi 1994 UK 1st TF Programme Delphi + Others France Technology Delphi Delphi 1995 France 100 Key Technologies Others Japan Germany Mini-Delphi Delphi 1996 Austria Delphi Austria Delphi Japan 6th STA survey Delphi Australia Matching S&T to futures needs Others Spain ANEP Delphi + Others 1997 Hungary TF Programme (TEP) Delphi + Others Netherlands Technology Radar Others Finland SITRA Foresight Others South Africa Foresight Exercise Delphi + Others 1998 Germany Delphi 98 Delphi Ireland Technology Foresight Ireland Others New Zealand Foresight Exercise Others UK 2nd UK Foresight Programme Others Sweden 1st Swedish Foresight Others 1999 Spain OPTI Technology Foresight Delphi South Korea Korean Technology Delphi Delphi Thailand ICT Foresight Delphi + Others China TF of Priority Industries Delphi + Others Others include: scenarios, panels, roadmapping, critical technologies, etc. Year Country Exercise/Programme Method(s) Japan 7th STA Survey Delphi Brazil Prospectar Delphi 2000 Brazil TFP Brazil (UNIDO/MDIC) Delphi + Others France 2nd 100 Key Technologies Others Portugal ET2000 Others Venezuela TFP Venezuela 1st cycle Delphi + Others 2001 Chile TFP Chile Delphi Germany FUTUR Others Czech Republic TF Exercise Others Turkey Vision 2023 Delphi + Others Colombia TFP Colombia 1st cycle Delphi + Others 2002 UK 3rd UK Foresight Programme Others Cyprus, Estonia, Malta eforesee Others Denmark National TF Denmark Others USA NIH Roadmap USA Others China TF Towards 2020 Delphi + Others 2003 Greece Technology Foresight Greece Others Norway Research Council 2020 studies Others Sweden 2nd Swedish TF Others Japan 8th Japanese Programme Delphi + Others South Korea Korea 2030 Delphi + Others Ukraine Ukranian TF Programme Delphi + Others 2004 France FuturRIS Others France AGORA Others Venezuela TFP Venezuela 2nd cycle Others Russia Key Technologies Others Colombia TFP Colombia 2nd cycle Delphi + Others Brazil Brazil 3 Moments Delphi + Others 2005 Romania Romanian S&T Foresight Delphi + Others Finland Finnsight Others Luxembourg FNR Foresight Others USA 21st Century Challenges GAO Others 2006 Finland SITRA Foresight Others Poland Poland 2020 TF Programme Delphi + Others Others include: scenarios, panels, roadmapping, critical technologies, etc.
(2010) Evolution of Programmes/Exercises Year Country Exercise/Programme Method(s) Year Country Exercise/Programme Method(s) Japan 7th STA Survey Delphi Since Japan 1st to 4th STA surveys Delphi Brazil Prospectar Delphi 1971 1991 2000 Brazil TFP Brazil (UNIDO/MDIC) Delphi + Others Japan 5th STA survey Delphi France 2nd 100 Key Technologies Others USA Critical Technologies Others Portugal ET2000 Others 1992 New Zealand Public Good Science Fund Others Venezuela TFP Venezuela 1st cycle Delphi + Others Germany BMFT, T 21 Others Chile TFP Chile Delphi 2001 South Korea Foresight Exercise Others Germany FUTUR Others 1993 Germany Delphi 93 Delphi Czech Republic TF Exercise Others Turkey Vision 2023 Delphi + Others UK 1st TF Programme Delphi + Others 1994 Colombia TFP Colombia 1st cycle Delphi + Others France Technology Delphi Delphi UK 3rd UK Foresight Programme Others 2002 1995 France 100 Key Technologies Others Cyprus, Estonia, Malta eforesee Others We have mapped Japan Germany Mini-Delphi Delphi Denmark National TF Denmark Others Austria Delphi Austria Delphi USA NIH Roadmap USA Others 1996 China TF Towards 2020 Delphi + Others Japan 6th STA survey Delphi (i.e. scanned & analysed) Greece Technology Foresight Greece Others Australia Matching S&T to futures needs Others 2003 Norway Research Council 2020 studies Others Spain ANEP Delphi + Others Sweden 2nd Swedish TF Others Hungary TF Programme (TEP) Delphi + Others Japan 8th Japanese Programme Delphi + Others 1997 these and many more experiences Netherlands Technology Radar Others South Korea Korea 2030 Delphi + Others Finland SITRA Foresight Others Ukraine Ukranian TF Programme Delphi + Others 2004 France FuturRIS Others South Africa Foresight Exercise Delphi + Others France AGORA Others Germany Delphi 98 Delphi 1998 Venezuela TFP Venezuela 2nd cycle Others Ireland Technology Foresight Ireland Others Russia Key Technologies Others New Zealand Foresight Exercise Others Colombia TFP Colombia 2nd cycle Delphi + Others UK 2nd UK Foresight Programme Others Brazil Brazil 3 Moments Delphi + Others Sweden 1st Swedish Foresight Others Romania Romanian S&T Foresight Delphi + Others 2005 Spain OPTI Technology Foresight Finland Finnsight Others Delphi 1999 Luxembourg FNR Foresight Others South Korea Korean Technology Delphi Delphi USA 21st Century Challenges GAO Others Thailand ICT Foresight Delphi + Others Finland SITRA Foresight Others China TF of Priority Industries 2006 Delphi + Others Poland Poland 2020 TF Programme Delphi + Others Others include: scenarios, panels, roadmapping, critical technologies, etc. Others include: scenarios, panels, roadmapping, critical technologies, etc.
(2010) EFMN EFP Mapping Foresight in the world EFMN (now EFP) Mapping Foresight work has produced a vast amount of information on foresight unprecedented in the world The mapping has been useful to understand foresight practices in Europe and other world regions 846 cases mapped > 1600 identified > 1000 cases mapped > 2000 Identified Mapping Foresight Key Lessons + Findings Mapping Foresight & Forecasting 100 cases mapped 437 cases mapped > 800 identified 767 cases mapped > 1400 identified Introducing networking (SNA) and systemic analyses into Foresight (Foresight Ark) Introducing Wild Cards & Weak Signals (WI-WE) systems + Web 2.0 scanning + Bottom-up Evaluation 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010-2012
(2010) So, what do we know about Foresight experiences and practice?
International Europe Latin America North America Asia Oceania R. Popper (2010) Over 2000 foresight studies mapped Levels 0&1 Levels 2&3 800 600 400 200 0 +
(2010) Foresight in Europe
(2010) Foresight in Belgium Sponsors: Délégation à l'aménagement du territoire et à l'action régionale (DATAR); Ministry of Economy, Finance and Industry; the Ministry of Defence; the Conseil économique et social régional (CESR-Centre); among others 1. Supporting policy or strategy development: e.g. developing a long-term vision on the opportunities and threats for the Flemish region (broad socio-economic orientation). 2. Articulating supply and demand: e.g. investigating which energy system the Flanders region would need in 30-50 years and how such a system could be achieved. 3. Analysing the future potential of technologies: e.g. understanding the meaning of nanotechnology for improving the competitiveness of the country. 4. Methodology and capacity building: e.g. developing methodologies and tools to assess the impact of flood risk reduction measures. 5. Network building: e.g. organising a network of competent suppliers fitted to the companies needs and a framework for innovation.
(2010) Foresight in Denmark Sponsors: Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation (VTU); the Ministry of Trade and Industry; the Ministry of Environment; the Environmental Protection Agency; the Risø National Laboratory for Sustainable Energy; and the Nordic Innovation Centre, among others. 1. Analysing the future potential of technologies: e.g. analysing environmental potentials and risks related to three generic technologies (nanotechnology, biotechnology and ICT) within the coming 15-20 years. 2. Supporting policy or strategy development: e.g. promoting strategies for sustainable development in coastal areas. 3. Priority setting for S&T: e.g. providing decision support for companies and research institutes in defining R&D priorities and assisting governmental decision-makers in making effective framework policies for the introduction of hydrogen energy. 4. Network building: e.g. creating a framework for an open debate between experts, politicians and stakeholders in the energy sector.
(2010) Foresight in Finland Sponsors: National Fund for Research and Development (SITRA); Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry; Ministry of Education; Parliament; and the National Technology Agency of Finland (TEKES), among others. 1. Analysing the future potential of technologies: e.g. facilitating a multifaceted discussion about the potential of new technologies in supporting the independent living of elderly people. 2. Supporting policy or strategy development: e.g. exploring the future development trends in knowledge intensive business services (KIBS) as a whole and by sub-sectors. 3. Priority setting for S&T: e.g. helping regional bodies to prioritise innovations about knowledge society developments. 4. Network building: e.g. generating information on long-term development views for decisionmaking by regional, sub-regional and local actors. 5. Methodology and capacity building: e.g. influencing the educational system by promoting the capabilities for reacting to qualifications needs.
(2010) Foresight in France Sponsors: National Fund for Research and Development (SITRA); Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry; Ministry of Education; Parliament; and the National Technology Agency of Finland (TEKES), among others. 1. Supporting policy or strategy development: e.g. determining how France can distinguish itself and stay among the most competitive and attractive countries through technology. 2. Analysing the future potential of technologies: e.g. detecting weak signals of disruptive events, to forecast next technological breakdowns and to provide a continuous technology watch on key subjects for the micro/nanotechnology community. 3. Public engagement: e.g. reviewing and launching a national debate on the challenges of the French Research and Innovation System. 4. Articulating supply and demand: e.g. analysing supply and demand of technologies for France in order to help firms to have a better vision of their technological preferences. 5. Methodology and capacity building: e.g. developing, piloting & demonstrating the value of light and flexible regional foresight methods.
(2010) Foresight in Germany Sponsors: Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF); Bavarian State Ministry of Sciences, Research and the Arts; government of Rheinland-Pfalz; companies like Siemens AG; among others. 1. Supporting policy or strategy development: e.g. analysing the strategies that regions should implement to become future-oriented. 2. Public engagement: e.g. picking up values and ideals of the population and implementing concrete measures in order to overcome gaps due to different mentalities within the country. 3. Analysing the future potential of technologies: e.g. analysing the relevance of applications and innovations of nanotechnology in the health sector. 4. Priority setting for S&T: e.g. introducing new perspectives into the research agenda of the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) by adding to the traditional mechanisms for agenda-setting and prioritisation. 5. Methodology and capacity building: e.g. developing methodologies and tools to assess the impact of flood risk reduction measures and scenarios.
(2010) Foresight in Italy Sponsors: Ministry of Defence; Lombardia Regional Government; Milan Regional Government; Regional Government of Trentino; and the Chamber of Commerce; among others. 1. Supporting policy or strategy development: e.g. developing a SWOT analysis of the Trentino region, its potential and future vision. 2. Articulating supply and demand: e.g. looking at the upcoming changes for manufacturing industry in various regions in order to prepare SMEs for the future. 3. Analysing the future potential of technologies: e.g. evaluating the national interest and the scientific and industrial feasibility of developing new emerging technologies in selected areas. 4. Priority setting for S&T: e.g. helping public decision-makers set priorities in a rational way. 5. Methodology and capacity building: e.g. providing socio-economic perspectives using foresight techniques.
(2010) Foresight in the Netherlands Sponsors: Centraal Plan Bureau (CPB); Sociaal Cultureel Planbureau (SCP); Ministry of Social Affairs and Employment; Ministry of Economic Affairs; Ministry of Education, Culture and Science; Ministry of Internal Affairs; the Provinces of Limburg, North-Brabant and Utrecht; among others. 1. Supporting policy or strategy development: e.g. identifying future trends in agri-business generated by internationalisation. 2. Articulating supply and demand: e.g. articulating major knowledge and innovation challenges in rural areas. 3. Priority setting for S&T: e.g. Identifying priorities in national innovation areas for the Dutch economy based on the innovation and research portfolios of SenterNovem and NWO (public funding agencies). 4. Analysing the future potential of technologies: e.g. identifying technology fields that are likely to be of strategic importance to business and industry in the next 10 years. 5. Public engagement: e.g. stimulating public discussion on a sustainable future for Brabant.
(2010) Foresight in Norway Sponsors: Norwegian Research Council (NRC); Nordic Innovation Centre; Norwegian Institute for Urban and Regional Research (NIBR) and the Drammen Municipalities; among others. 1. Methodology and capacity building: e.g. identifying best practices in the Nordic countries for technology foresight and similar methodologies for prioritising in S&T. 2. Priority setting for S&T: e.g. identifying research priorities and policy recommendations related to advanced materials technology; nanotechnology; oil and energy; and aquaculture sectors. 3. Public engagement: e.g. developing an arena in which different stakeholders and actors can reflect together on future options for a region. 4. Supporting policy or strategy development: e.g. developing a strategic plan for the development of Drammen Kommune over the coming years. 5. Articulating supply and demand: e.g. demonstrating the energy and power that will be consumed within buildings in 2030 (scenario approaches show different averages of energy standards in new and existing residential buildings).
(2010) Foresight in Spain Sponsors: Ministry of S&T; the Ministry of Industry; Ministry of Education; Guipuzkoa Government; Junta de Castilla la Mancha; and Galicia Regional Government; among others. 1. Supporting policy or strategy development: e.g. analysing the current state of key sectors in Spain (e.g. civil construction, chemical, transport, design, etc.) in order to assess actions in the next 15 years. 2. Analysing the future potential of technologies: e.g. defining key technologies in the materials sector that will influence both energy and transport industries in the next 15 years. 3. Priority setting for S&T: e.g. identifying research priorities in biotechnology in accordance with the guidelines of the Regional Plan for R&D. 4. Articulating supply and demand: e.g. identifying new demands on tourism at a global level over for the next 10 years.
(2010) Foresight in the United Kingdom Sponsors: British Council; Defra; the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI); Department of Transport; Government Office for Science (former OST); and the UK Royal Academy of Engineers; among others. 1. Analysing the future potential of technologies: e.g. exploring the implications of future information technologies in areas such as identity and authenticity, surveillance, system robustness, security and information assurance. 2. Supporting policy or strategy development: e.g. producing a challenging and long-term (30-100 years) vision for the future of flood and coastal defence. 3. Methodology and capacity building: e.g. identifying where foresight could add the greatest value, and helping generate a foresight culture. 4. Articulating supply and demand: e.g. identifying key areas of long-term opportunity, assessing these against UK capabilities, and agreeing a plan of action to exploit these areas. 5. Priority setting for S&T: e.g. identifying priorities for public and private R&D spending.
(2010) Foresight in Latin America
(2010) Historical landmarks (1970s influence) Bariloche Group (Argentina) Javier Barros Sierra Foundation (Mexico) CENDES (Venezuela) S&T Observatory (Cuba) S&T Office COLCIENCIAS (Colombia) Source: Popper & Medina (2008)
(2010) Foresight in UNIDO TFLAC TFP created in 1999 Main actors UNIDO Governmental agencies and departments Main objectives Foresight culture High-level political awareness Industrial & technological development Main activities Capacity building / Training courses Seminars / conferences Sectoral / industrial exercises Publications Main countries Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, Uruguay, Venezuela Source: Popper & Medina (2008)
(2010) Foresight in Argentina TFP created in 2000 Main actors Secretary for Science & Technology (SECyT) and UNIDO Main activities Learning from international experiences diagnostic studies in 3 sectors: Biotechnology Chemical Textile industries Technology Foresight Observatory (created in 2000 but frozen in 2001) Strategic Middle Term Plan of STI for 2015 started in October 2003, completed in 2005 coordinated by the National Observatory of Science, Technology and Productive Innovation (ONCTIP) Panels, Survey, workshops, prioritisation of key areas Over 4,000 people involved Main goals: To strengthen & enlarge the National System of STI To improve quality, efficiency & pertinence of S&T activities To increase S&T expenditure to 1% of the GDP in 2007 To increase participation of the private sector to the 0.50% of the GDP Source: Popper & Medina (2008)
(2010) Foresight in Chile TFP Created in 2001 Main actor Ministry of Economy Main objectives discovery pathways toward a desired future identification of strategies or action plan for its achievement. Main methods Brainstorming Delphi Main activities e-ducation industry : ICT applied to Education aquaculture industry wine production and exports biotechnology applied to fruits and horticulture biotechnology applied to forest industry the Chilean software industry. Source: Popper & Medina (2008)
(2010) Foresight in Cuba Main actor Cuban Observatory of Science and Technology (OCCyT) Main objectives Monitoring emerging technologies developing foresight exercises in key strategic sectors developing human capital with proactive attitudes as opposed to reactive Main methods Technology watch (trends & disruptions) Brainstorming Delphi Main activities Health Biotechnology Information technology Source: Popper & Medina (2008)
(2010) Foresight in Peru Main actors UNIDO since 2001 CONCYTEC since 2002 Consortium Prospective Peru (CPP) since 2002 Main objectives Build foresight capabilities Support exercises in strategic sectors Strengthen links with international foresight practitioners Main methods Brainstorming SWOT Scenarios Cross-impact Main activities textile and clothing, biotechnology and agriculture, sea products and water, new materials, energy, housing and construction and tourism Source: Popper & Medina (2008)
(2010) Foresight in Uruguay Main actors Presidency UNIDO (2000) Various ministries Main objectives competitive industrialization of the country integration of knowledge in the value chain Main methods Brainstorming Surveys Panels Delphi Scenarios & recommendations Main activities Energy Transport and logistic Biotechnology & agriculture Source: Popper & Medina (2008)
(2010) Foresight in Venezuela Main actors MCT MPD CENDES IESA PDVSA LUZ, ULA, UCV, UNEFM, UNEFA Main objectives Building capabilities & foresight culture + execute exercises Promote endogenous development, social inclusion & technological sovereignty Main methods Brainstorming, Surveys, Panels, SWOT, focus groups, community dialog, Interviews Main activities Yucca in Gondola; Shared Vision of the Future of the Gas Industry; Scenarios for the Agro-biotechnological Development of the Country; and Foresight on Biotechnology for Agro-Food Security by 2011 National Plan for STI 2005-2030 Main actors FONACYT, IVIC, INTEVEP, CDCH, MCT, FUNDACITES, universities Main objectives: To build an evaluation & promotion system for new stakeholders To relate STI results to the needs of most excluded people To promote a selective assimilation of technologies To promote pertinent technological developments To build S&T networks on priority areas To create and strengthen R&D centres To promote priority research areas To build S&T capabilities Source: Popper & Medina (2008)
(2010) Foresight in Brazil Main actors MST, MDIC, NAE, FINEP, CNPq UFRJ, UNICAMP, USP, among others CGEE Main objective To inform both government and industry about possible impacts of S&T trends Main methods Brainstorming Prioritisation workshops and surveys Delphi Scenarios & cross-impact Main activities Brazil 2020 MST / PROSPECTAR MDIC / BTFP NAE / Brazil 3 Tempos CGEE activities Source: Popper & Medina (2008)
(2010) Foresight in Colombia Main actors Colciencias, National Centre of Productivity (CNP), SENA UNIVALLE, Externado CAF, CAB, UNIDO Main objectives Building capabilities & foresight culture Fund and execute exercises Main methods Brainstorming, Surveys, Panels, SWOT, Delphi, cross-impact Scenarios & recommendations Main activities Electric Sector Food Packaging Sector Lacteous Sector Export potential of the health sector cluster in the Cauca Valley Agro-industrial productive chain of Fique in Santander Making Cartagena a tourist destiny Horticulture productive chain of the Bogotá plains Among others Evaluation The first Latin American Foresight Programme to be evaluated Source: Popper & Medina (2008)
(2010) Highlights of Latin American Foresight Foresight entered the LA policy environment as a tool for anticipating possible futures However, there have been many interpretations and uses. Some refer to traditional futures studies Some focus on technology assessment Many focus on the French prospective tool box And recently, in part due to international initiatives such as the UNIDO s Technology Foresight Programme for Latin America and the Caribbean (UNIDO TFLAC) and a number of European Commission s networks and projects some countries began to practice foresight as a combination of: Prospective approaches Participation approaches Policymaking approaches as a tool for building consensus & shaping the future Source: Popper & Medina (2008)
(2010) Influence of IGOs The role of IGOs have been fundamental for dissemination and capacity building activities: UNIDO ECLAC UNESCO Andres Bello Agreement (CAB) Andean Development Bank (CAF) Organisation of American States (OAS) Latin American Economic System (SELA) European Union (EU) Source: Popper & Medina (2008)
(2010) Influence of associations & networks The RIAP Network The Quo Vadis network The S&T for Development (CYTED) The Euro-Latin SELF-RULE network Current practices and exercises are more characterised by collaborative work between: International organisations Institutions Networks Source: Popper & Medina (2008)
(2010) Organisational Forms Europe Many national Programmes Many networks (mostly EU funded) Many exercises (national, international, regional, sectoral and thematic) Some specialised centres Latin America Few National Programmes (Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Venezuela) Few networks (SELF-RULE, RIAP) Many one-off / sectoral exercises Few specialised centres S C O P E + - Networks Consortiums & Projects Exercises (One-off & Sectoral) Programmes (Nationals & Internationals) Specialised Centres & Institutions - + ORGANISATIONAL DEVELOPMENT Source: Popper & Medina (2008)
(2010) A Panorama of the Latin Experience Country State of Evolution * Level + Focus # Objectives ~ Argentina A/I R, Se, O, Ac F/s, P A, Ne, Act-P Bolivia Im Se F/s A Brazil A/I N, R, Se, O, Ac F/s, P A, Ne, Act, Act-P Chile Le N, R, Se F/s, P A, Act, Act-P Colombia A/I N, R, Se, O, Ac F/s, P A, Ne, Act, Act-P Cuba A/I R, Se, Ac F/s, P A, Ne, Act, Act-P Ecuador Le Se, Ac F/s A Panama Im Se F/s A Paraguay Im Se F/s A Peru Le N, R, Se, O, Ac F/s, P A, Ne Mexico A/I N, Se, O, Ac F/s, P A, Ne Uruguay Le N,R, Se F/s A Venezuela A/I N, R, Se, O, Ac F/s, P A, Ne, Act, Act-P * State of evolution: position of foresight/future activities in the country along a spectrum from imitation [Im], via learning [Le} to adaptation/innovation [A/I] + Level: national [N], regional [R], sectoral [Se], organizational [O], academic [Ac] # Focus: foresight [F/s], policy action [P] ~ Objectives: anticipation [A], networking [Ne], action achieved [Act], action proposed [Act-P] Source: Popper & Medina (2008)
(2010) Lessons and Key Findings of Mapping Foresight Available at: http://rafaelpopper.wordpress.com/mapping-foresight and http://ec.europa.eu/research/social-sciences/pdf/efmn-mapping-foresight_en.pdf
(2010) mapping sponsors government agencies and departments (or simply government ) are the main sponsors of foresight in all regions, although we can see a few differences. For example, government sponsorship is present in nearly all European and Latin American cases mapped, but is to some extent less dominant in North America, Asia and Oceania.
(2010) mapping target audiences Broadly speaking, there is no great variation, government agencies and departments are the main target groups, regardless of the region. The most remarkable results are the relatively large numbers of research and business community targets far more than there are sponsors. This basically indicates that public administrations often sponsor studies targeted at these other groups. But also governments are among target groups more often than they are among sponsors, suggesting that other sponsors could be using foresight exercises to shape public policy agendas.
(2010) mapping time horizons Most exercises are looking 10 to 20 years ahead into the future. With the majority of mapped exercises being initiated in the late 1990s or early 2000s, our analyses are focusing on early 21st Century foresight practices. The figure also shows that Europe, North America, Asia and Oceania have a more strategic attitude towards the far future (e.g. 30, 50, 100 years ahead).
(2010) mapping territorial scale For all world regions, the national level is by far the most important. As policy-making is still predominantly carried out at this level, this result should come as little surprise. The remaining foresight initiatives are more or less equally distributed over the other territorial scales, although there are some significant differences between regions. Sub-national exercises are found most frequently in Europe possibly reflecting long-term trends of regionalisation in many European countries closely followed by Latin America.
(2010) mapping socio-economic sectors
(2010) mapping outputs The results shows the popularity of some common codified outputs.
(2010) mapping methods The results indicate that some methods are very widely used across the world; such is the case for: expert panels, literature review, scenarios trend extrapolatio.
(2010) Other key lessons about Foresight practices and methodologies
(2010) How are foresight methods selected? First argument methods are chosen based on their intrinsic attributes their nature Qualitative Quantitative Semi-quantitative their capabilities, i.e. the ability to gather or process information based on: Evidence Expertise Interaction Creativity Second argument methods are chosen based on fundamental elements and conditions influencing the foresight process; in other words, foresight process needs matter. See Popper (2008), How are foresight methods selected?, Foresight, Volume 10, 2008, issue 6
(2010) Two questions related to the intrinsic attributes of methods: 1. 1 How is selection influenced by the nature of methods? 2. 2 How is selection influenced by the capabilities of methods? Nine questions related to the elements of foresight processes: 3. 3 How is selection influenced by the Geo-R&D context? 4. 4 How is selection influenced by the Domain coverage? 5. 5 How is selection influenced by the Territorial scale? 6. 6 How is selection influenced by the Time horizon? 7. 7 How is selection influenced by the Sponsorship? 8. 8 How is selection influenced by the Target groups? 9. 9 How is selection influenced by the Participation scale? 10.How is selection influenced by the Codified outputs? 11.How is selection influenced by the Methods Mix?
(2010) Classifying methods by their nature Qualitative Quantitative Semi-quantitative Methods providing meaning to events and perceptions. Such interpretations tend to be based on subjectivity or creativity often difficult to corroborate (e.g. brainstorming, interviews) 1.Backcasting 2.Brainstorming 3.Citizens panels 4.Conferences/workshops 5.Essays /Scenario writing 6.Expert panels 7.Genius forecasting 8.Interviews 9.Literature review 10.Morphological analysis 11.Relevance trees /logic charts 12.Role play / Acting 13.Scanning 14.Scenario /Scenario workshops 15.Science fictioning (SF) 16.Simulation gaming 17.Surveys 18.SWOT analysis 19.Weak signals /Wildcards Methods measuring variables and apply statistical analyses, using or generating (hopefully) reliable and valid data (e.g. economic indicators) 20. Benchmarking 21. Bibliometrics 22. Indicators / time series analysis 23. Modelling 24. Patent analysis 25. Trend extrapolation / impact analysis Methods which apply mathematical principles to quantify subjectivity, rational judgements and viewpoints of experts and commentators (i.e. weighting opinions) 26. Cross-impact / structural analysis 27. Delphi 28. Key / Critical technologies 29. Multi-criteria analysis 30. Polling / Voting 31. Quantitative scenarios / SMIC 32. Roadmapping 33. Stakeholder analysis Source: Popper (2008)
(2010) Popper (2008) 1 How is selection influenced by the intrinsic nature of methods? very high influence
(2010) How is selection influenced by their capabilities? 2 (Even if unintentionally!) high influence Popper (2008) If you take into account that, on average, foresight studies use from 5 to 6 methods
(2010) 3 final remarks for better Foresight experiences and outputs
(2010) First: Remember how are foresight methods selected
(2010) Remember how are foresight methods selected Foresight methods are selected in a (not always coherent or systematic) multi-factor process. So far this process has been dominated by the intuition, insight, impulsiveness and sometimes inexperience or irresponsibility of practitioners and organisers. Two factors with very high influence: Intrinsic nature Methods Mix Three factors with High influence: Capability to gather and process knowledge Geo-R&D context Codified outputs Some factors with Moderate influence: Participation scale Time horizon see other factors in figure below Popper (2008)
(2010) Second: Recognise the power of interdisciplinarity by interconnecting knowledge
(2010) Recognising key sub-areas Introducing SNA and systemic analyses into our Mapping Foresight work In a way, research in Social Sciences is the binder of all research topics in the foresight exercises. This is quite the opposite with research within Humanities, which have the least salient links to other research topics in the exercise. A Natural sciences A04 Chemical Science (key broker) A06 Biological Science B Engineering & Technology B02 Industrial Biotechnology & Food Sciences B04 Manufacturing Engineering B09 Environmental Engineering (key broker) B10 Materials Engineering B11 Biomedical Engineering B12 Electrical and Electronic Engineering B13 Communications Technologies (key broker) C Medical sciences C01 Medicine General C05 Pharmacology & Pharmaceutical Sciences C12 Public Health & Health Services (key broker) D Agricultural sciences D01 Crop and Pasture Production (key broker) E Social sciences E01 Education E02 Economics E03 Commerce, management, tourism & services E04 Policy and Political Science (key broker) E05 Studies in human society Source: Popper (2009)
(2010) Third: Consider surprising and emerging issues (Wild Cards & Weak Signals)
(2010) What if? iknow Policy Brief 001 - Major EU state elects neo fascist leader iknow Policy Brief 002 - Transhumanism becomes a significant force iknow Policy Brief 003 - Universal electronic systems breakdown iknow Policy Brief 004 - Wheat crisis hits humans and animals iknow Policy Brief 005 - Floods in Europe cause mass migration iknow Policy Brief 006 - Outburst of the black economy iknow Policy Brief 007 - Pervasive self-diagnosis and self-treatment iknow Policy Brief 008 - Invisibility spray available in Boots iknow Policy Brief 009 - China s investment and services great wall iknow Policy Brief 010 - Abrupt disintegration of the Euro Zone And many more Source: iknow see www.iknowfutures.eu
(2010)
(2010) Exploiting Wild Cards and Weak Signals Imaginary Call Thematic area(s) Research topic Objective Expected impact Importance for Europe Page 4 of 4
(2010) Thank you! rafael.popper@manchester.ac.uk
(2010) References and further reading The Handbook of Technology Foresight (2008) Luke Georghiou, Jennifer Cassingena Harper, Michael Keenan, Ian Miles and Rafael Popper (Eds) From futures to foresight Ian Miles (Chapter 2) Foresight methodology Rafael Popper (Chapter 3) Foresight in Latin America Rafael Popper & Javier Medina (Ch. 12) Policy Transfer and Learning Luke Georghiou & Jennifer Cassingena Harper (Ch 14) Evaluation and Impact of Foresight Luke Georghiou and Michael Keenan (Chapter 15) New Frontiers: Emerging Foresight Ian Miles et al. (Chapter 16) Foresight, Volume 10, Number 6, 2008 Editors introduction to the European Foresight Monitoring Network Maurits Butter, Felix Brandes, Michael Keenan and Rafael Popper Comparing foresight style in six world regions Michael Keenan and Rafael Popper How are foresight methods selected? Rafael Popper Mapping Foresight (2009) Rafael Popper NOTE: This is the final report of the Mapping Workpackage of the EFMN project. The report will be printed by the European Commission in 2009. A limited number of hardcopies will be produced but its electronic versions will be freely available in the EC and EFMN websites.