Stratollites set to provide persistent-image capability [Content preview Subscribe to Jane s Intelligence Review for full article] Persistent remote imaging of a target area is a capability previously unavailable to OSINT analysts. Allison Puccioni examines how the advent of stratollites, alongside growing constellations of small satellites, is set to radically change the outlook Commercial satellite imagery is a cornerstone of contemporary open-source intelligence (OSINT). Challenges in security analysis can be addressed by a growing constellation of satellites that offer high-resolution satellite imagery for payment, enabling analysts to derive intelligence-grade information about strategic military and proliferation-related activity. Commercial imaging satellites offer a reliable means of information gathering because they can image a target area in inaccessible territory from space, distant from sovereign airspace regulations and anti-aircraft or area-denial weapons systems. Page 1 of 5
World View s stratollite system during ascent. The primary balloon (top) serves as the main system for the initial lift to high altitude. The secondary balloons (pictured uninflated in the middle of the flight train) allow for altitude control and elevation shifts between 50,000 and 75,000 feet. (World View) 1707749 However, the current constellation of commercial imagery satellites lacks a crucial element of intelligence gathering: persistent imaging over the same area. Commercial imaging satellites orbit the earth at 27,000 km per hour, passing over an area of interest with approximately enough time to collect a single image before continuing rapidly past the area s line-of-sight. Electro-optical (EO) imaging satellites generally follow a sun-synchronous orbit (a polar orbit that places the satellite over a point of the Earth s surface at a specific time of the day to maximise light exposure while imaging). The single satellite will then revisit that target area of interest approximately every 1.7 days. Satellite imaging is tasked for collection in a form of prioritised triage, with some areas of interest having a higher priority than others. Consequently, even upon a revisit, a satellite may not be able to collect an image over a given area of interest as its sensor will be targeted towards a higher-priority spot nearby. Seeking persistence Such an imaging cadence can provide valuable information to the open-source community, but is inadequate for intelligence and military communities that rely on imagery intelligence (IMINT) to garner a nuanced understanding of strategic and military activities. Militaries have sought to expand their IMINT capability with increased on-station (persistent) platforms that can provide greater access to intelligence. In the 1980s and 1990s, the United States developed and deployed unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) such as the Predator and Hunter reconnaissance platforms specifically for persistence-capable reconnaissance. Crucially, UAVs removed risk to the pilot and could carry heavier and larger payloads, providing longer times on-station over the area of interest. Moreover, UAVs began collecting multi-frameper-second videos of the target; these added the dimension of multi-angled views of stationary objects, and the behaviour and movement of mobile objects. The resulting imagery changed the landscape of intelligence gathering, and UAVs and persistent video became ubiquitous in military reconnaissance. By design, UAVs can remain on station for multiple hours, and their on-station capability has steadily increased. One UAV in development is Airbus's solar-powered Zephyr High Altitude Pseudo-Satellite (HAPS), designed specifically to collect persistent imagery over a given area of interest. It has both a high-resolution electro-optical and synthetic-aperture radar (SAR) payload and has broken an unrefuelled flight-time record of 340 hours. Platforms such as the Zephyr address the growing need for persistent imagery in the military and security communities. Emerging OSINT capability Surveillance of this kind is currently unavailable to OSINT analysts; tight operational regulations, expense, and a high safety risk render persistent imaging surveillance UAVs or aircraft operations unfeasible. However, this will soon change. In the next decade, persistent image capture will Page 2 of 5
become more readily available through the expansion of commercial satellite imagery and sensor capabilities, and the availability of different types of imaging platforms. As commercial satellite companies continue their projected launch plans, newer high-resolution satellites will emerge that will vastly increase access to imagery. For example, Seattle-based BlackSky launched the first of its projected 60-satellite constellation in September 2016; and San Francisco-based Planet (formerly Planet Labs), has acquired Google s high-resolution satellite constellation and plans to continue launches of higher-resolution doves satellites purposed for the pursuit of transparency in coming years. Orbital patterns of the commercial satellite imaging company Planet. High-resolution, low-cost satellite constellations could provide increased public transparency on security and counterproliferation efforts. (Planet) 1707750 Transparency in this sense is a recent construct associated with new commercial satellite imaging companies such as Planet, with the mission to enhance security and counter-proliferation efforts by increasing free or low-cost access to satellite imagery. The resulting intelligence pertaining to security and counter-proliferation events yields a level of transparency for the public previously unavailable when satellites were the domain of governmental institutions. By 2020, more than 100 intelligence-grade (sub-one-metre resolution) satellites will provide imagery for payment and will increase the imaging cadence over a given area of interest by an order of magnitude. Areas currently imaged between 4 10 times per month will be imaged dozens of times per week, enabling a persistence-like capability of vastly increased aggregated imagery. Page 3 of 5
One other company poised to open a new era in open-source capabilities is Tucson-based World View, which has designed high-altitude balloons known as stratollites that are launched into the stratosphere the part of the atmosphere approximately 10 50 km above ground and then slowly navigated over an intended area of interest. The company s charter is to expand commercial access to space, and it aims to cater to communication companies, research platforms, and space tourism. High-resolution imagery captured by a World View stratollite from an approximate elevation of 75,000 feet, showing an electrical sub-station in the state of Arizona, United States. Operating at this altitude, stratollites can remain on station for multiple months. (World View) 1707751 Experimentation with persistent stratollite reconnaissance extends back to the early days of the Cold War. In the 1950s, the US government sought to augment its intelligence capability through the use of stratospheric balloons. Projects Genetrix and Skyhook involved developing long-range balloons that were deployed in the stratosphere over the Sino-Soviet bloc. However, difficulties in recovering the balloons and their data led to the project s cancellation in favour of the high-altitude U2 reconnaissance aircraft. Currently, Google X s Project Loon involves a global networked array of stratospheric balloons to provide wireless network coverage to remote areas. In March 2016, one such balloon broke the record for the longest continuous balloon flight, of more than six months The implications for remote sensing on stratollites are particularly significant. Flight safety organisations such as the International Civil Aviation Organization or the US Federal Aviation Administration do not impose safety regulations above 60,000 feet (18,288 m). Equally, the stratollite is not considered to be in space and so is not covered by the US entities that govern the operational and sensor resolution of US space-based sensors. For example, currently the US prevents US space-based imaging companies from collecting imagery of better resolution than 25 cm. Additionally, stratollites are unencumbered by the launch requirements regarding the weight and size of satellite-carrying rockets. Conventional high-resolution EO satellites were limited by size Page 4 of 5
and weight as a major factor in the cost of rocket launch and launch logistics. Stratollites are less limited and can carry a larger, heavier imaging platform that could include more sophisticated optics and multiple sensors. Moreover, as stratollites fly at a lower altitude, their sensor is closer to the Earth s surface and can obtain a higher resolution than a comparable sensor on a satellite; once aloft and in place, stratollites can also remain on station for multiple months. On the web Paid-for satellite imagery set to boom by 2020Radar imagery analysis fills intelligence gaps Thermal imagery aids in intelligence gathering Author Allison Puccioni is a freelance Jane s imagery analyst and founder of the imagery consultancy Armillary Services, LLC. For the full version and more content: Jane's Military & Security Assessments Intelligence Centre This analysis is taken from Jane s Military & Security Assessments Intelligence Centre, which delivers comprehensive and reliable country risk and military capabilities information, analysis and daily insight. IHS country risk and military capabilities news and analysis is also available within Jane s Intelligence Review. To learn more and to subscribe to Jane s Intelligence Review online, offline or print visit: http://magazines.ihs.com/ For advertising solutions visit Jane s Advertising Page 5 of 5