2016 World Offshore Wind Market Forecast 2016-2025 Prospects, Technologies, World Markets
Contents Table of Contents 1 Summary and Conclusions...7 Summary... 8 Conclusions... 9 2 Drivers and Indicators... 10 Overview...11 Political Drivers...12 Economic Drivers...13 Low Carbon Power Generation...14 3 Offshore Wind Project Development... 15 Offshore Wind Project Lifecycle...16 Offshore Wind Project Cost Structure...17 Capex Phase 1: Planning & Development...18 Capex Phase 1: Wind Turbine...19 Capex Phase 1: Balance of Plant...20 Capex Phase 1: Installation...21 Opex Phase...22 Capex Phase 2: Decommissioning...23 Offshore Wind Supply Chain...24 4 Commercial Insights... 25 Project Scale...26 Supply Chain...27 Capital and Lifetime Costs...29 Risk Profile...30 Financing Challenges...31 Contracting Strategies...33 Industry Challenges...34 Technology: Wind Turbines...36 Technology: Foundations...38 Key Trends: New Technologies...39 Key Trends: Clustering and Repowering...40 Key Trends: Logistics...41 Key Markets: Current Capacity...42 Emerging Markets: Forecast Capacity 2016-2025...43 5 Market Forecast... 44 Methodology...45 Added Capacity by Country...48 Cumulative Capacity by Country...49 Capital Expenditure by Country...50 Annual Capital Expenditure by Type...51 Operational Expenditure by Country...52 Segment Forecasts: Wind Turbines by Country...53 Segment Forecasts: Wind Turbines by Size...54 Segment Forecasts: Wind Turbines by Manufacturer...55 Segment Forecasts: Foundations...56 Segment Forecasts: Cables...57 Segment Forecasts: Offshore Substations...58 Segment Forecasts: Vessels...59 Segment Forecasts: Helicopters...60 6 Appendix... 61 Data and Text Conventions...62 2015 Douglas-Westwood 2
Contents Figures Figure 1: Capital Expenditure by Country, 2016-2025...8 Figure 2: Drivers for Offshore Wind...11 Figure 3: EU 2020 Targets for Key Offshore Wind Markets Progress to Date... 12 Figure 4: Global Primary Energy Demand Growth...13 Figure 5: Energy Demand Forecast by Fuel Type...13 Figure 6: Global Power Generation Forecast...14 Figure 7: Levelised Cost of Energy Key Technologies in Europe...14 Figure 8: Offshore Wind Project Lifecycle...16 Figure 9: Cost Breakdown by Project Phase Capex, Opex, Decommissioning... 17 Figure 10: Offshore Wind Supply Chain Overview...24 Figure 11: Average Project Capacity, Distance from Shore and Water Depth... 26 Figure 12: Offshore Wind Capex Drivers...29 Figure 13: Offshore Wind Average Project Capex, 2000-2025...29 Figure 14: Planning & Development Timelines, UK....32 Figure 15: Size Evolution of Wind Turbines...36 Figure 16: Aerogenerator X...37 Figure 17: Two-bladed Offshore Wind Turbine....37 Figure 18: Types of Floating Foundations....38 Figure 19: Picture of UAV...39 Figure 20: Radar Image Showing Aircraft Flying Through Wind Farm...39 Figure 21: Siemens OTM Module...39 Figure 22: Artist s Impression of Siemens Facility...40 Figure 24: Wind Service Operation Vessel (SOV)...41 Figure 23: Heli-Hoist Basket...41 Figure 25: Key Markets, the Global Picture...42 Figure 26: Global Offshore Wind Installed Capacity, 2016...42 Figure 27: Key Region, North-Western Europe...42 Figure 28: Forecast Global Capacity Installation 2016-2025: Emerging Markets... 43 Figure 29: Global: Forecast Wind Farm, Capacity and Turbines...43 Figure 30: All Offshore Wind Projects vs. DW Forecast Capacity, 2016-2025... 45 Figure 31: Global Forecast Capacity...47 Figure 32: Global Offshore Wind Forecast Capacity Installed, 2016-2025... 47 Figure 33: North-Western Europe Forecast Capacity...47 Figure 34: Added Capacity by Country, 2016-2025...48 Figure 35: Cumulative Capacity by Country, 2016-2025...49 Figure 36: Capital Expenditure by Country, 2016-2025...50 Figure 37: Expected Annual Offshore Wind Capex, by Type 2016-2025... 51 Figure 38: Planning and Development Capex, 2016-2025, m...51 Figure 39: Wind Turbine Annual Capex 2016-2025, m...51 Figure 40: Balance of Plant Annual Capex 2016-2025, m...51 Figure 41: Installation Annual Capex 2016-2025, m...51 Figure 42: Operational Expenditure by Country, 2016-2025...52 Figure 43: Operational Expenditure by Activity...52 Figure 44: Wind Turbines Installed by Country, 2016-2025...53 Figure 45: Wind Turbines Installed by Size, 2016-2025...54 Figure 46: Wind Turbines Installed by Manufacturer, 2016-2025...55 Figure 47: Foundations Installed by Type, 2016-2025...56 Figure 48: Cable Length Installed by Country, 2016-2025...57 Figure 49: Cable Length Installed by Type, 2016-2025...57 Figure 50: Substations Installed by Country, 2016-2025...58 Figure 51: Substations Installed by Type, 2016-2025...58 Figure 52: Installation Vessels Required by Type, 2016-2025...59 Figure 53: Personnel Transfer Vessels Required, 2016-2025...59 Figure 54: Helicopters Required, 2016-2025...60 2015 Douglas-Westwood 3
Contents Tables Table 1: Renewable Energy Incentive Mechanisms in Key Markets...12 Table 2: Foundation Types Comparison...27 Table 3: Investor Types and Their Attitude to Risk...30 Table 4: Contracting Strategies...33 Table 5: Cost of Repowered Wind vs. CCGT 2005-2020...40 Table 6: Offshore Wind Projects Status Methodology...45 Table 7: Added Capacity by Country, 2016-2025...48 Table 8: Cumulative Capacity by Country, 2016-2025...49 Table 9: Capital Expenditure by Country, 2016-2025...50 Table 10: Operational Expenditure by Country, 2016-2025...52 Table 11: Wind Turbines Installed by Country, 2016-2025...53 Table 12: Wind Turbines Installed by Size, 2016-2025...54 Table 13: Wind Turbines Installed by Manufacturer, 2016-2025...55 Table 14: Foundations Installed by Type, 2016-2025...56 Table 15: Cable Length Installed by Country, 2016-2025...57 Table 16: Cable Length Installed by Type, 2016-2025...57 Table 17: Substations Installed by Country, 2016-2025...58 Table 18: Substations Installed by T ype, 2016-2025...58 Table 19: Installation Vessels Required by Type, 2016-2025...59 Table 20: Personnel Transfer Vessels Required, 2016-2025...59 Table 21: Helicopters Required, 2016-2025...60 2015 Douglas-Westwood 4
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