Intelligent knowledge based systems in electrical power engineering

Intelligent knowledge based systems in electrical power engineering

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Intelligent knowledge based systems in electrical power engineering J.R. McDonald Centre for Electrical Power Engineering University of Strathclyde Scotland, GM. Burt Centre for Electrical Power Engineering University of Strathclyde Scotland, J.S. Zielinski Department of Informatics University of Lodz Poland and S.DJ. McArthur Centre for Electrical Power Engineering University of Strathclyde Scotland, SPRINGER-SCIENCE+BUSINESS MEDIA, B.V

First edition 1997 1997 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht Originally published by Chapman & Hall in 1997 Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 1997 Typeset in 10/12 Palatino by Florencetype Ltd, Stoodleigh, Devon ISBN 978-1-4613-7934-8 ISBN 978-1-4615-6387-7 (ebook) DOI 10.1007/978-1-4615-6387-7 Apart from any fair dealing for the purposes of research or private study, or criticism or review, as permitted under the Copyright Designs and Patents Act, 1988, this publication may not be reproduced, stored, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without the prior permission in writing of the publishers or in the case of reprographic reproduction only in accordance with the terms of the licences issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency in the, or in accordance with the terms of licences issued by the appropriate Reproduction Rights Organization outside the. Enquiries concerning reproduction outside the terms stated here should be sent to the publishers at the London address printed on this page. The publisher makes no representation, express or implied, with regard to the accuracy of the information contained in this book and cannot accept any legal responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions that may be made. A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library ( 5/ Printed on permanent acid-free text paper, manufactured in accordance with ANSI/NISO Z39.48-1992 and ANSI/NISO Z39.48-1984 (Permanence of Paper).

Contents List of contributors xi Introduction 1 Part One A General Overview of Intelligent Knowledge Based systems 1 An introduction to intelligent knowledge based systems 5 Jerzy S. Zielinski and Stephen D.J. McArthur 1.1 Computers and artificial intelligence 5 1.1.1 A short history 5 1.2 Current trends in applied AI 7 1.3 Definition and terminology of IKBSs 8 1.3.1 Definitions 8 1.3.2 Terminology 8 1.4 The architecture Of IKBSs 9 1.5 The implementation cycle of IKBSs 11 References 11 2 Intelligent knowledge based system development 13 Jerzy S. Zielinski and Stephen D.J. McArthur 2.1 Historical review 13 2.1.1 General information 13 2.1.2 IKBS tools 13 2.1.3 Applications of IKBSs 14 2.1.4 IKBS generations 15 2.2 IKBSs in technology 15 2.3 Opportunities and bottlenecks in IKBS development 16 2.4 Discussion of costs and benefits 17 References 17

VI Further reading Contents 19 Part Two The Application of Intelligent Knowledge Based Systems in Electrical Power Engineering 3 Comments on contemporary power systems and other engineering systems Jerzy S. Zielinski 3.1 Main characteristics of electrical power systems 3.2 Problems in electrical power system operation 3.3 Computer applications in power systems 3.3.1 A short history 3.3.2 Some remarks on hardware and software 3.3.3 IKBSs 3.4 Some remarks on the relationships between phenomena in power systems and other fields of engineering 3.5 Conclusions References 4 Forecasting and planning in power systems U. George Knight 4.1 Introduction 4.2 Planning tasks in the extension of power systems 4.3 Forecasting tasks in the extension of power systems 4.4 The evolution of techniques for system planning and forecasting 4.5 The characteristics of system planning and forecasting tasks in relation to IKBSs 4.5.1 Algorithmic, human and expert system capabilities 4.5.2 The characteristics of planning and forecasting tasks in relation to IKBSs 4.5.3 Frequency of study 4.5.4 Retention of expertise 4.6 Areas of research and development 4.7 Descriptions of some proposed and actual applications of IKBSs in generation expansion planning 4.7.1 A decision tree and IKBS model 4.7.2 A combined dynamic programming, IKBSs and fuzzy sets approach 4.8 Descriptions of some proposed and actual applications of IKBSs in transmission network planning 27 27 28 29 29 29 30 31 33 33 35 35 35 36 37 38 39 40 42 42 44 45 46 49 55

Contents 4.8.1 An IKBS for the preliminary design of power transmission networks 56 4.8.2 Development of an IKBS for long-term planning of power transmission networks 58 4.9 Descriptions of some proposed and actual applications of IKBSs in distribution network planning 60 4.9.1 EHV /HV substation location and HV network design 61 4.9.2 Connection of new customers 62 4.10 Descriptions of some proposed and actual IKBSs in power system analysis 64 4.10.1 Interactive load flow for power system planning 65 4.10.2 Support to load flow calculations 65 4.10.3 Support for transient stability studies 66 4.11 Demand forecasting 70 4.12 Trends and conclusions 71 References 72 5 Design of electrical plant and systems 75 Stefano Massucco 5.1 Introduction 75 5.1.1 General overview 75 5.1.2 Reasons for the application of IKBSs to design and planning 76 5.2 The state of the art in IKBS applications for the design of electrical plant and systems 78 5.2.1 Introduction 78 5.2.2 Applications to large systems 79 5.2.3 Applications to systems of limited dimensions 80 5.2.4 Applications to the design of specific subsystems or equipment 82 5.3 An IKBS application: electrical auxiliary system design in a power station 83 5.3.1 Problem formulation 83 5.3.2 The IKBS approach: building the knowledge base and design procedure 87 5.4 Conclusions 95 Acknowledgements 96 References 97 6 Intelligent knowledge based systems in condition monitoring 99 Barclay Weir 6.1 Introduction 99 vii

viii Contents 6.2 Types of electrical machines 100 6.3 Condition monitoring 102 6.4 IKBSs in condition monitoring 105 6.5 Applications 106 6.6 Some Successful applications 107 6.6.1 TURBOMAC 108 6.6.2 GenAID 108 6.6.3 GEMS 110 6.6.4 TOGA 111 6.6.5 MOTORMON 114 6.7 Summary 116 References 117 7 Alarm processing 119 David J. Young and James R. McDonald 7.1 Introduction 119 7.2 The history of alarm processing 120 7.2.1 Message routing 120 7.2.2 Message prioritization 121 7.2.3 Advanced alarm-processing techniques 121 7.2.4 Review of previous work 123 7.3 The practical problems of alarm processing 127 7.3.1 Speed of operation 127 7.3.2 Limited scope of telemetry 128 7.3.3 Missing alarm messages 128 7.3.4 Unreliable time ordering of alarms 129 7.3.5 Arrival rate of alarms is not constant 129 7.3.6 Multiple simultaneous events 130 7.4 Development of an alarm-processing expert system 130 7.4.1 Setting initial targets 132 7.4.2 Identification of knowledge and data requirements for the IKBS 133 7.4.3 Identification of existing data and knowledge 135 7.4.4 Knowledge acquisition 135 7.4.5 Identification of approach and IKBS techniques 137 7.4.6 Identification of language or tools for IKBS construction 138 7.4.7 Knowledge base design 139 7.4.8 User interface design 140 7.4.9 IKBS construction - knowledge base and user interface 140 7.4.10 Prototyping 141 7.4.11 Testing 141 7.4.12 Installation and integration 142

Contents ix 7.5 A case study: APEX 143 7.5.1 Details of APEX construction 144 7.5.2 Example of APEX operation 146 7.5.3 Performance 151 7.6 Conclusion 152 References 152 8 Event and fault diagnosis 155 Graeme M. Burt and James R. McDonald 8.1 Introduction to the problem of fault diagnosis 155 8.1.1 Events 155 8.1.2 Reasons for fault diagnosis 156 8.1.3 Basis for diagnosis 156 8.1.4 Reasons for a fault diagnosis system 157 8.1.5 IKB5-based fault diagnosis 158 8.2 Review of IKBSs for network fault diagnosis 158 8.2.1 The 'automatic system trouble analysis' system 158 8.2.2 IKBSs based on AST A ideas 159 8.2.3 A distributed approach 160 8.2.4 Fault diagnosis using object-oriented features 161 8.2.5 Localized fault diagnosis 162 8.2.6 Applications where SCADA data is lacking 163 8.2.7 A system suited to parallel implementation 164 8.2.8 A system for distribution feeders 164 8.2.9 CRAFT - customer restoration and fault testing 165 8.2.10 SEPT 165 8.2.11 An IKBS developed by Amantegui et al. 166 8.2.12 Further comments 166 8.3 The development of an IKBS for fault diagnosis: RESPONDD 167 8.3.1 Introduction 167 8.3.2 Structure of the diagnosis: its results 168 8.3.3 Structure of the diagnosis: its mechanics 170 8.3.4 An initial prototype: wait-and-see 171 8.3.5 Hypothesizer strategy 173 8.3.6 Hypothesizer gut reaction 174 8.3.7 Evolution of hypothesizing strategies for central diagnosis 174 8.3.8 Dealing with uncertainty 177 8.3.9 Network data requirements 179 8.3.10 Qualitative simulation 181 8.3.11 Modelling knowledge 184 8.4 Demonstration of the developed system 187 8.4.1 Case study 187

x Contents 8.4.2 Hypothesizer diagnosis 8.5 Final remarks References 189 190 192 9 Other applications in power system operation and control 195 Jerzy S. Zielinski 9.1 Voltage/reactive power control 195 9.2 Emergency control and restoration 196 9.3 Real-time processing 198 9.4 The testing of equipment 199 9.4.1 Transformers 199 9.4.2 Protection relays 200 9.4.3 Substations 200 9.5 Management systems 200 9.6 Electrical and other industries 201 References 201 10 Future trends in intelligent systems in power systems 206 Alan Moyes 10.1 Introduction 206 10.2 The importance of knowledge 206 10.2.1 Knowledge acquisition 207 10.2.2 Model-based reasoning 209 10.2.3 Case-based reasoning 210 10.2.4 Data mining 210 10.3 Integrated solutions for complex problems 211 10.3.1 Control and monitoring architecture 211 10.3.2 Integrated IKBSs 214 10.4 Conclusions 215 References 216 Index 219

Contributors Graeme M. Burt Centre for Electrical Power Engineering, Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, University of Strathclyde, Royal College Building, 204 George Street, Glasgow G1 1XW, U. George Knight Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Imperial College of Science, Technology and Medicine, Exhibition Road, London SW7 2BT, Stefano Massucco EPSL, Electrical Engineering Department, University of Genoa, Via ai' Opera Pia, 11a, 1-16145 Genoa, Italy Stephen D.J. McArthur Centre for Electrical Power Engineering, Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, University of Strathclyde, Royal College Building, 204 George Street, Glasgow G1 1XW, James R. McDonald Centre for Electrical Power Engineering,

xii Contributors Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, University of Strathclyde, Royal College Building, 204 George Street, Glasgow G1 1XW, Alan Moyes Centre for Electrical Power Engineering, Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, University of Strathclyde, Royal College Building, 204 George Street, Glasgow G1 1XW, Barclay Weir Technology Division, ScottishPower plc, 47 Hawbank Road, East Kilbride G74 5EG, David J. Young Scottish Nuclear, Electrical and Control Design Department, 3 Redwood Crescent, Peel Park, East Kilbride G74 5PR, J erzy S. Zielinski Department of Informatics, University of Lodz, 39 Rewolucji 1905r Str., 90-214 Lodz, Poland