40 Years of innovation policy: what s next? 25-26 March 2015, Vienna Selected notes on nature, rationale and impacts of STI and STI policies Principal Scientist Torsti Loikkanen VTT Innovations, Economy and Policy
Click to edit Master title Content style Milestones in Post-War STI & policy development Dynamics of technological development as driver of STI & policies contributing economic development Challenge of transformational STI policies Impacts of STI policies Scope of international comparisons Evidence based impact analysis Conclusions 14/04/2015 2
Milestones in Post-War STI & policy development Click to edit Master title style Social function of science by Bernal, Vannevar Bush, Manhattan & mission oriented projects Solow growth model (1956) -- (separate) effects of technological change, capital ands labor on economic growth Economic rationale of S&T policy -- Nelson (1959), Arrow (1962) Impacts of Fourth S&T in level society science, technology and society (STS) studies Oil crises 1970s -- Club of Rome -- Technology Assessment (OTA U.S.), future studies & foresight OECD: STI policies, evaluation and impact studies, methodologies & indicators Towards evidence based STI policy STI policies in the era of austerity, cuts of public STI funding 14/04/2015 3
Technology dynamics as driver of STI & policies Click to edit contributing Master title economic style development By referring to Kondratieff, Schumpeter, Freeman etc., we express worry about STI policy analysis in terms of technology dynamics Renda (2015): due to the advent of cloud computing, the Internet of Things and the increased virtualisation of phases of (global) value chain(s).., innovation occurs in so many different ways that governments will be forced to focus on a limited number of very crucial roles, such as facilitating the flow of information and promoting the competitiveness of innovation platforms where needed. Kondratiev-waves IT and Health with phase shift acc to Goldschmidt-AJW 2004.jpg 14/04/2015 4
Challenges of transformational STI policies Click to edit Master title style Continuing debate from market failures -- to system failures to transition failures among main challenges of transition approach will evidently be avoidance of transition failures due to enforcement of such long-term STI policies which crosses both political and generational cycles introduction and implementation of Kyoto Protocol as concrete example in good & bad 14/04/2015 5
Impact analysis of STI policies Click to edit Master title style Aspect 1: In the era of austerity grows significance of impact assessment due to cuts in public STI funding (statistical evidence from several OECD countries), which raises temptations towards short-term industrial policy Aspect 2: Bias of international comparisons in the analysis of STI indicators only need to broaden scope to socio-economic and ecological impacts -- despite challenges in attribution and causalities example: differences are there (Technology Barometer) but how much to count on STI & policies, other policies and other factors 14/04/2015 6
Impacts of STI policies Click to edit Master title style 14/04/2015 7
Impacts of STI policies Click to edit Master title style 14/04/2015 8
Impacts of STI policies Click to edit Master title style 14/04/2015 9
Click to edit Master title style Impacts of STI policies Evidence based STI policies need evidence based impact analysis Evaluation and impact assessment builds much on surveys & Third judgements level of experts (`subjects ) of enterprises and other STI institutions Would innovation based methodology help, building on LBIO* based innovations as `objects, and judgements of various technology and business experts around systematically collected innovations in question (SFINNO, SWINNO) - examples of impacts via innovations approach * Literature Based Innovation Output 14/04/2015 10
Innovations in SFINNO database 1945-2009 Click to edit Master title style *Metal sector innovations are missing from figures of 2008 and 2009 14/04/2015 11
Role of Tekes funding with regard to role of drivers of innovation development Click to edit Master title style Tekes has significant role in contributing, for example, to regulation driven innovations projects scientific breakthroughs licenses 14/04/2015 12
Click to edit Master title style 50% Evidence of VTT impacts via innovations VTT is one of the biggest players in the Finnish innovation system. 40% 47% 35% 30% 20% 10% 0% 18% 10 domestic universities 27% Foreign universities VTT Other domestic research institutes 17% Foreign research institutes VTT is 2 nd most important innovation partner after all domestic universities combined. 40% VTT is an important collaboration partner 30% 20% 10% 34% 35% 33% 0% 1980-ties 1990-ties 2000-ths 14/04/2015 13 Source: data from the SFINNO database on Finnish innovations VTT: a steady collaboration partner with impact for innovating firms.
Click to edit Master title style Major Innovation project for Evaluation Unit of RTD Directorate of the EC 14/04/2015 14
MI Task 3 Case studies Click to edit Master title style Objectives to provide judgment on the actual benefits Click to of edit the Master projects text financed styles by the EU research Second level programs and their contribution Third to level the development of major innovations via quantitative and qualitative analysis of selected 10 case studies. Framework of MI study the objective of case studies is to analyze the contribution of the EU Framework Programs to Major Innovations, in order to identify the main determinants and factors for success as well as the weaknesses. Major Innovations selected to case studies: Mobile phone Smart Grid Stem cells treatment LED Personalized medicin In vehicle navigation system New generation superjumbo-jet`(cf. Airbus A 380) Open source / Linux Optical fibres Photovoltaic solar panel 14/04/2015 15
Click to edit Master title style Example of framework of Major Innovation: MOBILE PHONE 14/04/2015 16
Click to edit Master title style Questions Need and adequacy of analysis of technology dynamics as a basis of STI policies & analysis our response? Second Potential level and rationale of transformational STI policies our response? Legitimacy Fourth of level STI policies under pressure due to austerity temptations to short-term industrial policy our response? How much to count welfare impacts on STI & STI policies, how far this is the right question our response? Need of evidence based evaluation and impact assessment of STI and additional impacts of public STI does f.ex. impact via innovation analysis help -- our response? 14/04/2015 17
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