THE SUBSEA SECTOR IN BRAZIL BUSINESS OPPORTUNITIES IN A GLOBAL MARKET Marcus Tadeu R. de Paula Subsea Project coordinator for PRESAL development E&P Service Unit June 8 th, 2011
The presentation may contain forecasts about future events. Such forecasts merely reflect the expectations of the Company's management. Such terms as "anticipate", "believe", "expect", "forecast", "intend", "plan", "project", "seek", "should", along with similar or analogous expressions, are used to identify such forecasts. These predictions evidently involve risks and uncertainties, whether foreseen or not by the Company. Therefore, the future results of operations may differ from current expectations, and readers must not base their expectations exclusively on the information presented herein. The Company is not obliged to update the presentation/such forecasts in light of new information or future developments. All projects forecasted herein are subject to approval by the appropriate stakeholders. CAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR US INVESTORS The United States Securities and Exchange Commission permits oil and gas companies, in their filings with the SEC, to disclose only proved reserves that a company has demonstrated by actual production or conclusive formation tests to be economically and legally producible under existing economic and operating conditions. We use certain terms in this presentation, such as oil and gas resources, that the SEC s guidelines strictly prohibit us from including in filings with the SEC.
Agenda Petrobras The subsea vocation Service and Equipment demands Presal New Frontier E&P Results and Perspectives Conclusions
Agenda Petrobras The subsea vocation Service and Equipment demands Presal New Frontier E&P Results and Perspectives Conclusions
Journey
A Company Driven by Technology Successive records in drilling and completion OTC OTC 1992 2001 US$ 4 Billion invested in R&D in the last 5 years
Concessions areas Concessions 100% W.I Petrobras Concessions Parnerships Total Other Companies Total Brazil Explor Contracts 68 75 143 152 295 Evaluation Plans 17 21 38 0 38 Production 256 30 286 43 329 Total 341 126 467 195 662
Agenda Petrobras The subsea vocation Service and Equipment demands Presal New Frontier E&P Results and Perspectives Conclusions
Petrobras E&P equipment and services demand Equipment Installed Dec/10 Business Plan (2010-2014) Subsea Trees 803 500 Subsea Manifolds 25 30 Subsea Flexible Flowlines (km) 4,364 4000 Umbilicals (km) 3,303 2200 Rigid Pipelines (km) 1,773 500 Critical Resources Current Situation Dec/10 Delivery Plan (to be contracted) Accumulated Value 2013 2015 2020 Drilling Rigs Water Depth Above 2.000 m 14 26 31 53 Supply and Special Vessel 298 465 491 504 Production Platforms SS e FPSO 47 53 63 84 Others (Jacket and TLWP) 79 81 83 85
Special vessels and rigs ( % growth) Drilling Rigs Special Vessel - PLSV 160 240 140 200 160 120 120 100 80 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 80 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Special vessels and rigs ( % growth) Support Vessel Special Vessel DSV / RSV 180 200 160 180 140 160 140 120 120 100 100 80 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 80 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
SUBSEA INDICATORS 2400 2000 1600 1200 800 400 0 Pipe installaded (km) 1373 1436 1007 1100 517 641 381 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Source:: Subsea sctor hystoric date and plannning 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Subsea manifolds 64 66 68 71 76 82 84 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Source: subsea planning Subsea Tress installaed 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 1213 1034 822 469 546 620 696 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Source: Subsea planning
Construction Plans Support vessels: - 146 vessels planned to be contracted in 7 rounds; - vessels to be built in Brazil; - 41 vessels already under contract (2009 and 2010) - 3rd round on progress (technical proposals under analysis); Small support vessels: - vessels to be built in Brazil; - 31 vessels already contracted ( LH and P ); - up to 29 to be contracted ( UT and LH). PLSV: - tension capacity of 200 and 300 ton to be built in Brazilian shipyards; - tension capacity of 550 ton may be built wherever; - Technical proposals under analysis
Commercial Strategy Operation in pool regime Subsea and Well Equipment long term contracts standardization Special Vesses and Rigs long term contracts Anticipation that allows the construction and/or new companies entry in Brazil
Agenda Petrobras The subsea vocation Service and Equipment demands Presal New Frontier E&P Results and Perspectives Conclusions
The Pre Salt Province: A New Era For Petrobras Blocks BMS-8 BMS-9 BMS-10 BMS-11 BMS-21 BMS-22 BMS-24 Total Area = 12.000 km2 Consortium BR (66%), SH (20%) e PTG (14%) BR (45%), BG (30%) e REP (25%) BR (65%), BG (25%) e PAX (10%) BR (65%), BG (25%) e PTG (10%) BR (80%), PTG (20%) EXX (40%), HES (40%) e BR (20%) BR (80%), PTG (20%)
Outstanding Exploratory Sucess 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 06 2007 07 2008 08 2009 09 2010 2011
Transfer of Rights areas 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 09 2010 2011 6+1 contingent areas 5 bi boe production right 100% Petrobras
Development Strategy Phase 0 Information Gathering 2008/2018 Phase 1a OperatedProduction> 1 MM bbl 2013/2016 Phase 1b Significant production increase After 2017 Appraisal wells Extended Well Tests Lula Pilot Guará Pilot Lula NE Pilot Guará N Cernambi S 8 definitive production systems (replicants) 4 Transfer of Rights production units Innovation acceleration Massive use of new technologies specially tailored for Pre-Salt conditions
FPSOs Operating in Pre-Salt cluster BW Cidade de São Vicente Tupi EWT Lula NE EWT Dynamic Producer GuaráEWT BW Cidade de Angra dos Reis Lula Pilot
PRE-SALT UPDATE -SANTOS BASIN Accomplishments 2010 Transfer of rights to produce 5 billion boe in specific areas of the pre-salt that are not under concession. Start up of FPSO Cidadede Angrados Reis in Lula (Pilot Project). Start up of Guara Extended Well Test. 8 more wells drilled, taking Santos Basin Pre-Salt total to 20 wells drilled. 2011 Activity 9 rigs currently operating in the Pre-Salt Cluster (1 ANP), up to 3 new rigs to arrive. 4 new wells with drilling concluded, up to 20 additional wells to be drilled. Start-up of Northeast Lula Early Production System (BM-S-11): first semester 2011. Start-up of Northeast Carioca Extended Well Test (BM-S-9): mid 2011. Start-up of South Cernambi Extended Well Test (BM-S-11): late 2011.
Petrobras Development Approach Subsea System Satellite or manifolded wells connected to a floating production unit by means: Rigid pipes in a SLWR configuration Decoupled system by means of subsea tethered buoys or multi hybrid riser system Flexible pipe in a lazy wave configuration
Agenda Petrobras The subsea vocation Service and Equipment demands Presal New Frontier E&P Results and Perspectives Conclusions
E&P Profile Oil and Gas Production Total Proven Reserves (SPE) 57% 50% 11% 13% 19% 9% 9% 32% 2,338 thousand boed 15.28 billion boe Onshore Shallow water (0-300m) Deep water (300-1500m) Ultra-deep water (> 1500m) Current Exploratory Area 124.6 thousand km 2 31% 33% 52% of the concession areas are located in deep / ultra-deep waters. 21% 15%
Petrobras estimated production 5,382 7.6% p.y. 3,907 4.6% p.y. 2,583 1,810 Pre-salt 241 1078 * Production curve does not currently assume any contribution from Transfer of Rights
Proven Reserves SPE (billion boe) 12.6 0 13.0 2 13.2 3 13.75 13.9 2 14.0 9 14.17 15.2 8 9.6 7 11.0 1 2010 growth:8 % 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 10
Proven Reserves
Oil and Gas Proven Reserves and Production Publicly Traded Peer Group Proven Reserves SEC Criteria (billion boe) Production (million boed) ExxonMobil 23,0 BP 3,9 PetroChina BP Lukoil Royal Dutch Shell Petrobras Chevron 12,1 11,3 18,0 17,5 13,9 6 th 22,1 ExxonMobil PetroChina Royal Dutch Shell Chevron Petrobras ConocoPhillips Lukoil 2,7 2,5 2,5 2,3 6 th 3,3 3,1 3,9 ConocoPhillips Total ENI 6,4 10,3 10,1 Total ENI Repsol-YPF 0,9 1,7 2,2 Repsol-YPF 2,0 Reserve / Production Ratio (years) Reserve Replacement Index (%) Lukoil 21,2 Royal Dutch Shell 373% PetroChina ExxonMobil Petrobras Total 12,5 14,0 15,5 4 th 18,5 ExxonMobil Petrobras ConocoPhillips PetroChina 139% 132% 209% 226% 3 rd BP 12,3 BP 129% ConocoPhillips 11,9 Chevron 115% Royal Dutch Shell 11,9 ENI 94% Chevron 11,6 Total 92% ENI 10,2 Repsol-YPF 62% Repsol-YPF 6,3-140% Lukoil
Source: Evaluate Energy, 2009 Oil and Gas Production Growth 5 year Production Growth (% p.y.) Production Grow th 2009(5year period) Petrobras ConocoPhillips 4.3% 4.6% 1 st Lukoil 3.4% PetroChina Chevron 2.6% 2.4% ENI 0.3% Oil & Gas Production (thousand boed) -4.5% -0.1% BP -0.7% ExxonMobil -1.9% Total -2.3% Royal Dutch Shell Repsol-YPF 2600 2400 2200 2000 1800 1600 2525 2217 2298 2301 2400 2037 2020 1810 1638 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Oil Production (bpd) 4.500.000 Histórico e Projeção do Póleo (bpd) 4.000.000 3.500.000 3.000.000 2.500.000 2.000.000 1.500.000 1.000.000 500.000 UN-AM UN-RNCE UN-SEAL UN-BA OUTROS - BC ALBACORA MARLIM RONCADOR MARLIM SUL BARRACUDA MARLIM LESTE ALBACORA LESTE CARATINGA LGN - RIO FRADE SIX UN-ES UN-BS DPD NOVAS DESC. TOTAL - 950 953 956 959 962 965 968 971 974 977 980 983 986 989 992 995 998 001 004 007 010 013 016 019
Oil Production (bpd) New discoveries Pré-Salt (B.Santos) Namorado, Enchova, Garoupa, Bonito, Pampo Cherne etc AM, RNCE, SEAL, BA Barracuda Marlim Sul Roncador Albacora Marlim UN-ES
Impressive Record of Accelerating Development 2.000.000 1.800.00 1.600.00 16 years 54 years Production (bpd) 1.200.00 1.000.00 800.00 12 years 22 years 27 years 45 years 400.00 0 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 Number of Years Production since incorporation of Petrobras (1953) Discovery of Garoupa in the Campos basin (1974) Discovery of giant fields in Campos basin including Albacora/Marlim (80 s & 90 s) Discovery of the Pre-Salt, since Parati (2006)
Investment Plan by Business Segment 2010 / 2014 US$ 224.1 billions 33% 118,8(*) 53% (*) Exploration & Production Exploration: US$ 18,1 billions Production: US$ 68,0 billions Pre-salt Santos: US$ 22,1 billions International: US$ 10,6 billions 1% 2%1% 2% 8% E&P RTC G&E Petrochemicals Distribution Biofuels Corp. Projects
E&P-BRAZIL INVESTMENTS 2010-2014 Continued emphasis on Post-Salt acreage, growing spending on Pre-Salt Pre-Salt Post-Salt US$ 33.0 Billion US$ 75.2 Billion 3% 0.9 4.3 13% 15% 11.4 13.7 18% 27.8 50.1 84% 67% Exploration Development Infrastructure Annual expenditures for exploration of more than US$4 billion annually Development Capex in Pre-salt approaching 50% of Post-salt spending
Agenda Petrobras The subsea vocation Service and Equipment demands Presal New Frontier E&P Results and Perspectives Conclusions
Conclusions Petrobras s strategy of Extended Well Test followed by a Pilot System and a Phased Development has been shown suitable in reducing the capital exposure and increasing the flexibility Standardization provides: anticipation, flexibility and cost reduction All this knowledge was only possible due to essential integrated work with suppliers of goods and services partners as well as the Universities and Research Institutes.
Conclusions The increasing projects portfolio given by Pre-Salt and new discoveries open up a huge opportunity either for growing the capacity of the players already established and for starting up of new Companies in Brazil. The providers should be prepared to add new technologies aiming to reduce the costs and to improve the reliability. The Local Content is being considered seriously as one of the most important factors in the bid processes. There are enormous challenges to face, such as modernization of shipyards, personnel training, financial structuring, improving the business environment in Brazil etc.