NORDIC ICT FORESIGHT Roadmapping: general process, phases and methods Toni Ahlqvist Senior Research Scientist, Project Manager VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland Foresight and Assessment 30.5.2006, Hanasaari
Applied roadmap for Nordic ICT Foresight Application that links the results of the SWOT workshops and especially scenario workshop Four roadmaps: experience economy, health, production economy, information security For each of the socio technical visions (or groups of these) the seminar will discuss needed developments within the following five s: 1. education (needs for scientific research, needs for competences) 2. (networks, terminals, content delivery, quality of service, security among others) 3. Business/industry (business opportunities, business development in the match between technologies and markets, finance, industrial standards) 4. (market mechanisms and end use markets) 5. (industry policy, public R&D, early market stimulation, standardisation) Realistic market shares and timeframes of each vision and milestones on the path to the visions will also be discussed.
Roadmap workshop process Backoffice Plenary session I Groupwork I four thematic groups Groupwork II Plenary session II Groupwork III Plenary session III Brainstorming: elaborating the sociotechnical visions for the roadmaps, four thematic groups, prioritizing Elaborating the visions Priority setting Identifying critical factors Linking the visions and factors Drafting links between roadmap s Drafting the roadmaps Draft roadmaps Discussion Deepening the links Elaborating Finishing the roadmaps Presenting the detailed roadmaps: elaboration, iteration Day 1 Day 2
Plenary session I Key question: Sociotechnical visions that enhance Nordic productivity, create jobs and well being. Media and communication (experience economy) Health Applications Technologies Policies Applications Technologies Policies Vision n Vision n Production economy Security Applications Technologies Policies Applications Technologies Policies Vision n Vision n
Groupwork I four thematic groups 1) Elaborating the visions 2) Prioritization 3) Identifying critical factors in the roadmap s What are the enabling and constraining dimensions of each factor? Media and communication (experience economy) Applications Technologies Policies Science and education Vision n Vision Business and industry
Groupwork II 1) Elaboration of the critical factors in the roadmap s 2) Characterizing and explicating the links between the factors Science and education Science and education Vision Vision Business and industry Business and industry = factor important only in this particular target = factor important in both targets
Groupwork II (continued) 3) Drafting the roadmaps in linear sequences education industry
Plenary session II Presentation and discussion of draft roadmaps Media and communication (experience economy) Health education education industry industry Production economy Security education education industry industry
Groupwork III 1) Characterization and detailing the nonlinear elements of the roadmaps 2) Deepening the links between the roadmap elements 3) Linking roadmap targets to different s (science, technology, business/industry, market, government ) 4) Preparing the roadmaps for the plenary session education industry
Plenary session III Presentation of the detailed roadmaps in the four focus areas Media and communication (experience economy) Health education education industry industry Production economy Security education education industry industry
Outcome of the roadmap workshop education industry Vision 4 Vision 5 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
THANK YOU! Toni Ahlqvist Senior Research Scientist VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland Foresight and Assessment Kemistintie 3, Espoo, P.O.Box 1002 FIN 02044 VTT, Finland Tel. +358 20 722 4260 fax +358 20 722 7007 toni.ahlqvist@vtt.fi www.vtt.fi