The Future of Space Exploration in the USA Jakob Silberberg
The History of Governmental Space Programs in the USA NASA - National Aeronautics and Space Administration Founded 1958 Government funded space organization Early achievements: Mainly Apollo Missions: first time around the moon, first lunar landing, first spaceship to leave the earth's gravitational field NASA operations after Apollo: Space Shuttle, ISS, satellite launches, space telescopes and probes
The History of Private Space Exploration in the USA Space exploration in the USA was limited to governmental organizations for a long time 1962 - Communications Satellite Act allowed private companies to launch satellites via NASA 1984 - Commercial Space Launch Act allowed private companies to launch rockets into space, the beginning of the private space sector
Progression of Private Sector Beginning-1984: it was obligatory that all commercial satellites be launched via NASA orbiter fleet (space shuttles) 1990: Launch Services Purchase Act commits NASA to buying necessary launch materials from private companies
Today NASA: currently has no functioning spacecraft for manned missions or transport to the ISS. Is working on the development of new spacecraft able of lunar, martian, and LEO missions scheduled to be ready for manned missions 2020. Private Sector: SpaceX: has two functioning launch rockets, the Falcon 9 and the Falcon Heavy. The Falcon heavy is a heavylaunch rocket which can lift more than twice the weight of the next functioning rocket into space. It is the most powerful rocket since the Saturn V from the Apollo missions. SpaceX also has a functioning capsule for manned missions, the Dragon Capsule. Virgin Galactic: has multiple functioning space ship designs which are being tested and are scheduled for first flights within the next year Bigelow Aerospace: has two functioning space stations in space and is developing two more. Is collaborating with Boeing on a new space capsule Boeing: also developing Atlas V rocket for NASA
Political Influence Last President Bush: Supported the space program but brought an end to the space shuttle program Current President Obama is supportive of and expansion of space exploration: The bottom line is, nobody is more committed to manned spaceflight, to human exploration of space than I am Possible other candidate: Romney: Supports the space program, but wants planned missions to stay realistic. Is endorsed by eight prominent members of the space industry?
Economic Influence: NASA NASA, is governmentally funded NASA funding reached a peak in 2010 and 2011, with $18 Billion spent on the space program These funds are used for a multitude of purposes, including missions, and now mainly the development of new spacecraft NASA is commonly known for underestimating costs for large projects and failing to keep deadlines Examples: ISS ($8 Billion -> $74 Billion), Space Shuttle Program ($43 Billion -> $196 Billion)
The funding of NASA has been constantly increasing, despite some disagreement in congress, until the fiscal year 2011, in which the budget began decreasing again.
Economic Influence: Private Sector Limited funds from governments in the case of a collaboration between a company and the government in producing new technology All other funds are raised through donations by private investors Problem because NASA underbids private companies in launch prices to keep launch power monopoly -> companies without NASA launch contracts are solely dependent upon investors SpaceX: spent $1 billion in 10 years of existence $200 million private investments, $800 Million launch contracts with NASA for Falcon rockets Amounts of funds are not disclosed by any of the other companies
Technological Influence Space Programs are very dependent upon the development of new technologies New spacecraft are constantly being developed and tested Technological progress is happening at a very fast rate Both private companies as well as NASA are producing new spacecraft to expand the field of space exploration. The rate of development of new technologies will probably only increase
Environmental, Cultural and Population Influence Cultural: Importance and public opinion on space exploration. This can decide an expansion or decrease in space programs. Currently: strongly backed, mainly by science community Future: this will probably continue, as the space program is seen as something very patriotic Environmental: Space launches produce a lot of environmentally harmful substances Virgin galactic predicted 3 tonnes of C02 per passenger each launch Environmental activists are fighting against such programs, though their success is questionable Population: space may soon harbor new habitable places which would offer one possible solution to the population problem the world currently has
Scenario I: Best Scenario 2020 NASA: finished development on the Orion space capsule. SpaceX: functioning Falcon rockets and Dragon capsule, plans to start Mars missions in the next decade. Virgin Galactic:regular LEO missions, planning on missions outside Earth's orbit. Bigelow Aerospace:multiple space stations in LEO, providing space stations for lunar and martian missions.
Scenario 2: Worst Scenario 2020 Either one or a series of accidents in spacefaring lead to a public fear of the space sector and space exploration, ending the backing of space programs and bringing them to an unexpected end. An example of this would be a possible crash or accident concerning the ISS Space Terrorism could also have a profoundly negative effect on the space program
Scenario 3: Probable Scenario 2020 SpaceX will be ready for launches with its new falcon rockets and dragon capsule by 2015 Virgin Galactic will be having regular tourist missions by this time NASA will have finished development on its Orion Capsule, and will at least be in the testing stage, if not performing first missions Boeing will have finished development on the CST-100 and will be in the testing phase
Scenarios in 2030 NASA and SpaceX have announced plans for possible Mars missions with their spacecraft by 2030 A possible base for future missions on the moon Renderings of what possible moon bases and mars missions could look like
Scenarios 2030 Continued Bigelow Aerospace can easily provide portable space stations to private investors and space agencies, making it possible for NASA to create orbiting bases around large bodies to be investigated in space The Robonaut: a humanoid robot to perform tasks in space will be able to effectively perform repair missions in place of humans OR The negative scenario named for 2020 occurs later
Possible Wild Cards: Scenario 1 A private space company misuses its power and influence in space e.g. actions against the US government such as providing espionage or other such things for enemies of the USA In this case, the USA would most definitely put all American private space programs on hold, trying to contain any other such occurrences
Possible Wild Cards: Scenario 2 NASA manages to finish development on the Orion capsule far before schedule, allowing them to reclaim dominance in American spacefaring This would bring a halt to the increase of the private sector, or at least greatly diminish its momentum
Side Note May 25 2012: SpaceX becomes the first private company to successfully launch and retrieve a spacecraft by itself with the Dragon Capsule
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