Lecture Notes in Control and Information Sciences 198 Editor: M. Thoma
H. Winter and H.-G. Nfif~er (Eds.) Advanced Technologies for Air Traffic Flow Management Proceedings of an International Seminar Organized by Deutsche Forschungsanstalt fiir Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR) Bonn, Germany, April 1994 Springer-Verlag London Berlin Heidelberg New York Paris Tokyo Hong Kong Barcelona Budapest
Series Advisory Board A. Bensoussan- M.J. Grimble. P. Kokotovie. H. Kwakernaak J.L. Massey" Y.Z. Tsypkin Editors Heinz Winter, Prof. Dr. DLR,/nstitut ffir Flugffihrung, Postfach 32 67, D-38022 Braunschweig, Germany Hans-Gustav Nfifier, Dr. DLR, Hauptabteilung Verkehrsforschung, Postfach 90 60 58, D-51140 K61n, Germany ISBN 3-540-19895-4 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg New York ISBN 0-387-19895-4 Springer-Verlag New York Berlin Heidelberg British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library Apart from any fair dealing for the purposes of research or private study, or criticism or review, as permitted under the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, this publication may only be reproduced, stored or transmitted, in any form or by any means, with the prior permission in writing of the publishers, or in the case of reprograpbic reproduction in accordance with the terms of licences issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency. Enquiries concerning reproduction outside those terms should be sent to the publishers. Springer-Verlag London Limited 1994 Printed in Great Britain The publisher makes no representation, express or implied, with regard to the accuracy of the information contained in this book and cannot accept any legal responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions that may be made. Typesetting: Camera ready by authors Primed and bound by Athenaeum Press Ltd, Newcastle upon Tyne 69/3830-543210 Primed on acid-free paper
Scientific Coordinators Prof. Dr. H. Winter DLR, Institut far Flugfahrung Postfaeh 32 67 D-38022 Braunschweig Dr. H.-G. NOlMr DLR, Hauptabteilung Verkehrsforschung Postfach 90 60 58 D-51140 K61n Authors Prof. Dr. W. Zimmerli Otto-Friedrieh-Universit~tt Lehrstuhl Philosophie II Markusstr. 4 D-96047 Bamberg Dr. H.-G. NiiBer DLR Hauptabteilung Verkehrsforsehung Postfach 90 60 58 D-51140 K~ln Mr. D. Wilken DLR~ Hauptabteilung Verkehrsforschung Postfaeh 90 60 58 D-51140 K61n Prof. Dr. W. Leutzbach StralM des Roten Krenzes 59 D-76228 Karlsruhe Professor A, R. Odoni Professor of Aeronautics and Astronautics and of Civil Engineering Massehusetts Institute of Technology Cambridge, MA 02139, USA Mr. w. Philipp EUROCONTROL, HQ 72, rue de la Loi B-1040 Bruxelles Mr. F. Gainche EUROCONTROL, HQ 72, rue de la Loi ]3-1040 Bruxelles Mr. G. Booth FAA, ARD-200 800 Independence Ave. Washington, DC 20591, USA Dr. ~ McCarthy Director, Research Applications Program National Center for Atmoshpheric Research P.O. Box 3000 Boulder, CO 80307-3000, USA Professor N. V. Finder Arizona State University Research Professor of Computer Science Director of the Artificial Intelligence Laboratory Department of Computer Science Tempe, AZ 85287-5406, USA Mr. K. Platz SE DFS Kaiserleistr. 29-35 D-63067 Offenbach am Main Dr. U. Brokof DLR Ins~itut Rat Flugt~uamg Postfach 32 67 D-38022 Braunschweig Dr. D. B~hme DLR Institut ~r Flugt~uhrung Postfach 32 67 D-38022 Braunschweig
FOREWORD The increase in traffic over recent years has greatly exceeded all traffic forecasts. In many areas, it has stretched the transportation systems to the limits of their capacity. To make matters worse, society imposes conflicting demands on the transportation systems regarding the expeditious and safe flow of traffic, a careful utilization of energy resources, and measures to protect the environment. In particular in aviation, the traffic demand exceeds the capacity of the current Air Traffic Management (ATM) system, and prognoses predict growth rates on the order of 4-8 % per year which makes the situation more and more difficult. In order to resolve this problem, advances in the productivity of the ATM system are required, while maintaining or improving the achieved levels of safety and environmental protection. Crucial areas are a more efficient utilization of airspace and infrastructure on the ground, precise navigation for aircraft, energy conserving designs of airframes and propulsion systems, and an advanced management of air traffic employing given human and new technical resources. The papers in this volume address the area of air traffic management, and in particular one of the integrating criteria and measures of productivity - the FLOW of air traffic. The FLOW CONTROL of air traffic by human operators is already today an essential part of air traffic management in areas of high air traffic density. However, promising prospects exist to implement much more advanced methods of FLOW MANAGEMENT by means of MACHINE INTELLIGENCE. The papers in this volume address the relationship between society and traffic (Paper 1 and 2), the potential of demand management (Paper 2) and the methods of mathematical modelling of traffic flows (Paper 3). A comprehensive overview is given of the present state of the art of FLOW MANAGEMENT (Papers 4, 5 and 6). As leading examples the flow management systems of EUROCONTROL and FAA are discussed in great detail. Examples of advanced new concepts and products using machine intelligence for the optimization of air traffic flow are described in
viii the Papers 7 to 10. In Paper 9 the situation at the Frankfurt Airport is used to demonstrate the potential for capacity improvements by the use of these advanced technologies. The Papers in this volume have been presented at the DLR SEMINAR 1994 ADVANCED TECHNOL OGLES FOR AIR TRAFFIC FL 0 W MANA GEMENT which has taken place in Bonn on April 12 and 13, 1994. The DLR Seminar Series "Fundamentals of Engineering Sciences" was initiated in 1984 to discuss fundamental problems of sciences in which DLR is involved. The t994 Seminar has brought together leading Scientists and Engineers who work in the area of Air Traffic Flow Management, and this volume shall bring their ideas and concepts to the attention of their colleagues. H. Winter H.-G. NOger Bratmschweig KSln-Porz
CONTENTS.. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Future Traffic - A Challenge to Human Intelligence and Social Values Prof. W. Ch. Zimmedi, Universities of Bamberg, Erlangen and Zurich Influencing Demand in the Future Transport System Dr. H.-G Ntil~er and D. Wilken, Deutsche Forschungsanstalt for Luftund Raumfahrt e.v. Modelling of Traffic Flow Prof. W. Leutzbach, University of Karlsruhe (Ret.) Issues in Air Traffic Flow Management Prof. A. R. Odoni, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, USA Air Traffic Flow Management in Europe W. Philipp and F. Gainche, EUROCONTROL Flow Management in the United States G. R. Booth, Federal Aviation Administration, USA Advanced Aviation Weather Products for Future Air Traffic Flow Management Dr. J. McCarthy, National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA 21 30 43 64 107 121 & 9. 1R Some Ideas about Future Air Traffic Control Systems - Theoretical and Experimental Investigations in a Simulated Environment Prof. N. V. Finder, Arizona State University, USA Optimizing Air Traffic Flow at Airports K. Platz, DFS - Deutsche Flugsicherung GmbH Dr. U. Brokof, Deutsche Forschungsanstalt fox Luft- und Raumfahrt e.v. Improved Airport Surface Traffic Management by Planning Dr. D. BOhme, Deutsche Forschungsanstalt for Luft- und Raumfahrt e.v. 132 153 191