Challenges and Expectations for Today s Innovation Uwe Cantner Friedrich Schiller University Jena & University of Southern Denmark, Odense Berlin, June 10, 2015 TAFTIE 2015 Annual Conference Complex Innovation: New Challenges, Requirements and Approaches for Research and Innovation Programmes
Challenge Industrial dynamics and innovation: a slowdown What is industrial dynamics? Productivity and Innovation dynamics: the European and the German case
Industrial dynamics Innovation driven development of industries Industrial dynamics is not an uniform process From risk to uncertainty: Innovation and investment decisions New directions in innovative activities
Productivity dynamics: the European and the German case Slowing down of labor productivity growth Especially after 2008 Financial crisis technological exploitation? 50000 45000 40000 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 Labor productivity 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 France Germany Italy Netherlands Spain United Kingdom
Productivity dynamics: the European and the German case 0,20 Annual growth rate of labor productivity Declining growth rates of labor productivity Potentials exploited? 0,15 0,10 0,05 0,00 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010-0,05 France Germany Italy Netherlands Spain United Kingdom
Productivity dynamics: the European and the German case 0,10 Annual growth rate of labor productivity 0,08 Declining growth rates of labor productivity Different EU areas 0,06 0,04 0,02 0,00 1996 2001 2006 2011-0,02-0,04 Euro area (18 countries) European Union (28 countries) Euro area (15 countries) Linear (European Union (28 countries))
Innovation dynamics: the German case Declining innovation activities in Germany Clear decline already before 2008 and also after 2008 despite o prosperous economic development o easy credit conditions 85 75 65 55 45 Share of innovative firms in all firms in % 35 25 Research intensive industries Other industries Knowledge intensive services Other services 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012
What is / can be the role of policy? Policy styles and their times The new mission oriented policy
2010 2005 2000 1995 1990 1985 1980 1975 1970 1965 1960 1955 1950 Policy styles and their times Cluster & network orientation New mission orientation Key technologies and Diffusion orientation Mission orientation
2010 2005 2000 1995 1990 1985 1980 1975 1970 1965 1960 1955 1950 Policy styles and their times Cluster & network orientation New mission orientation Key technologies and Diffusion orientation Mission orientation Reconstruction Restructuring / Imitation Catching-up / Innovation Efficiency Dirigism / Internationalisation Modernisation / Globalisation Sustainability Changing styles, targets and means Along Fier/Harhoff (2002)
2010 2005 2000 1995 1990 1985 1980 1975 1970 1965 1960 1955 1950 The new mission oriented policy Cluster & network orientation New mission orientation Key technologies and Diffusion orientation Mission orientation large research basic research Reconstruction Restructuring / Imitation innovations labour and environment key technologies Catching-up / Innovation Efficiency Dirigism / Internationalisation networks Modernisation / Globalisation societal demands and topics & future technologies Sustainability Changing styles, targets and means Along Fier/Harhoff (2002)
Market vicinity Policy changes (Cantner/Pyka 2001) Diffusion: low technological specificity, high market vicinity Mission: high technological specificity and clear idea of economic application Basic I: basic research in a narrow sense; no market relevance Basic II: technologically specific, but far away from economic relevance I Technological specificity
Policy changes (Cantner/Pyka 2001) 1975 1996
Policy Changes (Cantner/Pyka 2001)
Policy Changes (Cantner/Pyka 2001)
2010 2005 2000 1995 1990 1985 1980 1975 1970 1965 1960 1955 1950 The new mission oriented policy Cluster & network orientation New mission orientation Key technologies and Diffusion orientation Mission orientation linear innovation model feedback-driven innovation model innovation sequences Innovation intensity Industrial Organization New Industrial Economics Innovation intensity Innovation Systems Industrial Dynamics Innovation direction Competitive diffusion Technological dynamics Reg./indus. dynamics Theoretical foundations and viewpoints FAZ end of the 1980ies / early 1990ies o Weak innovation in the German economy! A problem of incentives or of competencies?
2010 2005 2000 1995 1990 1985 1980 1975 1970 1965 1960 1955 1950 The new mission oriented policy Cluster & network orientation New mission orientation Key technologies and Diffusion orientation Mission orientation innovations as public and meritoric goods market failure incentive problem (knowledge as a public good) private versus social returns uncertainty & capital markets large projects & finances system failure intermediation problems complementarity problems reciprocity problems "long-run" failure lock-in problems intergenerational problems aberrations Not intensity but direction of innovation as a policy relevant problem From explicitly emphasizing the technological solution (mission) toward emphasizing the problem solution (new mission policy)
Expectations A new direction - how to get it right! New Mission Orientation: Germany s High Tech Strategy Schumpeterian Catalytic Policy I: Policy Mix Schumpeterian Catalytic Policy II: Entrepreneurial power
Example for New Mission Policy : High Tech Strategy High Tech Strategy in Germany prioritising future challenges relative to prosperity and quality of life strengthening the dynamism of innovation in industry consolidating resources and promoting transfer creating favourable conditions for innovation strengthening dialogue and participation Digital economy and society: Industrie 4.0 // Internet of Things Sustainable economy and energy Energiewende Innovative workplace Healthy living Intelligent mobility Civil security
The catalytic principle intervention
Funding per year (in 1995 mio. Euro) 0 20 40 60 80 Schumpeterian Catalytic Policy I: Policy Mix Photovoltaic Wind Overall research funding Individual research funnding Cooperative research funding Case: Energy technologies Overcoming system lock-in Policy mix Transition to a new trajectory 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 Demand-pull year Technology-push Cantner/Graf/Hermann/Kalthaus (2015)
Schumpeterian Catalytic Policy II: Entrepreneurial power The initial problem: Incumbents in favor of dominant design once motivated, power to achieve mass market adoption strong influential power, financial resources, cost reductions (incremental innovation & economies of scale) Case: Alternative Technical Vehicles Policy focus on SME Transition to a new trajectory stimulate incumbents The solution: Entrants stimulate incumbents R&D (1) direct: competitive & complementary forces (2) indirect: stimulate demand, enlarge scope of niche markets, master new technologies Cantner/Dieckhoff (2015) entry barriers, liability of newness, fail to reach mass market penetration
Conclusion
Conclusion Slow down of industrial dynamics & innovation activities in Europe Indicates exploited technological potentials, uncertainty and/or lock-in of potential innovators New mission policy flagging societal needs, inducing major technological changes Focus on the direction of change instead on its intensity Schumpeterian Catalytic policy enabling transition to a new trajectory policy mixes and entrepreneurial power
Mastertitelformat bearbeiten THANK YOU!