Henrik Skov, DHI Water Environment Environment Health hsk@dhigroup.com International perspective: contribution to a European approach we@sea Conference den Helder 1-2 December 2009
Potential conflicts between OWF development and conservation interests Same sub-littoral zone 10-30 m targeted by the offshore wind industry and internationally important concentrations of birds and mammals Harbour porpoise Source: Skov et al. 2006 we@sea Conference den Helder 1-2 December 2009
However, main areas comprise a small proportion of target development areas Areas targeted by seabirds and marine mammals are few and large 100 100 100 Common scoter Red-/Black-throated diver Velvet scoter 80 80 80 Cumulative proportion 60 40 20 Cumulative proportion 60 40 20 Cumulative proportion 60 40 20 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 we@sea Conference den Helder 1-2 December 2009
Key areas for wide-ranging species comprise a network of internationally important areas Few key areas focus for fly-way conservation we@sea Conference den Helder 1-2 December 2009
Estimation of displacement effect ranges for divers from OWFs Some data from Horns Rev 1 and Nysted OWFs More data expected from Kentish Flats and Horns Rev 2 Source: Petersen et al. 2006 Source: Petersen et al. 2006 London Array Diver Model ORP meeting 25 Nov 09
Estimation of displacement effect ranges for common scoter from OWFs Some data from Horns Rev 1 Complex response, including use of razor clam stocks in OWF Source: Petersen et al. 2006 Source: Petersen et al. 2006 London Array Diver Model ORP meeting 25 Nov 09
Estimation of displacement effect ranges for harbour porpoise during OWF construction (pile-driving) Some data from Horns Rev 1 Complex response, including use of razor clam stocks in OWF Source: Petersen et al. 2006 Source: Skov & Thomsen 2007 London Array Diver Model ORP meeting 25 Nov 09
Henrik Skov, DHI Water Environment Environment Health hsk@dhigroup.com A common strategic perspective for offshore wind farm development Nature conservation priorities Existing plans Development potential we@sea Conference den Helder 1-2 December 2009
Henrik Skov, DHI Water Environment Environment Health hsk@dhigroup.com Existing plans (example Denmark) developed entirely from legal requirements and field data we@sea Conference den Helder 1-2 December 2009
Henrik Skov, DHI Water Environment Environment Health hsk@dhigroup.com Development potential (example 3.6 MW turbine Denmark) we@sea Conference den Helder 1-2 December 2009
From empirical (population) models to regional habitat prediction models Determination of habitat quality in the target zones for offshore wind (example birds)» Red-/Black-throated diver» Northern gannet» Common scoter» Velvet scoter Distribution» Common eider» Long-tailed duck» Little gull Prey» Black guillemot» Harbour porpoise Hydrodynamics we@sea Conference den Helder 1-2 December 2009
Why spatial modelling? Low power of survey data Count data are not representative of system dynamics London Array Diver Model ORP meeting 25 Nov 09 Source: MacLean et al. 2008
Spatial modelling Concept
Assessing habitat quality in a dynamic environment Teasing out linkages between hydrodynamic forcings and responses in benthic and pelagic animals using empirical data from offshore wind development regions Biological field data Static statistical distribution model Empirical data Calibration Regional hydrodynamic model Dynamic habitat model we@sea Conference den Helder 1-2 December 2009
Assessing habitat quality in a dynamic environment Example: Benthic habitat prediction (mussel growth) 52 interacting state variables (e.g. nutrients, oxygen, phytoplankton and food availability for mussels) we@sea Conference den Helder 1-2 December 2009
Establish quantitative links between CCI index and biodiversity Important Bird Areas Baltic Sea Modelled CCI 2002
Establish quantitative links between CCI index and biodiversity 5.0 Aythya fuligula (log n+1) 4.0 Bucephala clangula (log n+1) 4.5 4.0 3.5 R 2 =0.81 3.5 R 2 =0.64 Predicted 3.0 2.5 2.0 Predicted 3.0 2.5 1.5 1.0 2.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 Observed 1.5 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 Observed 4.0 Somateria mollissima (log n+1) 3.5 Clangula hyemalis (log n+1) 3.5 3.0 3.0 R 2 =0.75 2.5 R 2 =0.49 Predicted 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 Predicted 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 Observed 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 Observed
Pelagic habitat prediction
Quasi-dynamic spatial model based on hydrodynamic data
Red-throated diver habitat ROFI specialist
Current models London Array Diver Model ORP meeting 25 Nov 09
Quasi-dynamic spatial model based on hydrodynamic data
International co-ordination badly needed to minimise impacts and break down environmental barriers to the sector Potential ecological impacts aggregated in space efficient mitigation by improved planning measures we@sea Conference den Helder 1-2 December 2009