The Making of a Digital World
Evolutionary Processes in World Politics Series Series editor: William R. Thompson, Indiana University The Historical Evolution of World-Systems, edited by Christopher Chase-Dunn and E. N. Anderson (2005) Puzzles of the Democratic Peace: Theory, Geopolitics, and the Transformation of World Politics, by Karen Rasler and William R. Thompson (2005) The Making of a Digital World: The Evolution of Technological Change and How It Shaped Our World, by Joachim K. Rennstich (2008)
The Making of a Digital World The Evolution of Technological Change and How It Shaped Our World Joachim K. Rennstich
THE MAKING OF A DIGITAL WORLD Copyright Joachim K. Rennstich, 2008. Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 2008 978-1-4039-7448-8 All rights reserved. No part of this book may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission except in the case of brief quotations embodied in critical articles or reviews. First published in 2008 by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10010 and Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire, England RG21 6XS Companies and representatives throughout the world. PALGRAVE MACMILLAN is the global academic imprint of the Palgrave Macmillan division of St. Martin s Press, LLC and of Palgrave Macmillan Ltd. Macmillan is a registered trademark in the United States, United Kingdom and other countries. Palgrave is a registered trademark in the European Union and other countries. ISBN 978-1-349-53512-5 ISBN 978-0-230-61106-1 (ebook) DOI 10.1057/9780230611061 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Rennstich, Joachim K. The making of a digital world : the evolution of technological change and how it shaped our world / Joachim K. Rennstich. p. cm. (Evolutionary processes in world politics series) Includes bibliographical references and index. 1. Social change. 2. Social evolution. 3. Technological innovations Social aspects. 4. Globalization. I. Title. HM831.R46 2008 303.48 201 dc22 2007027280 A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. Design by Newgen Imaging Systems (P) Ltd., Chennai, India. First edition: March 2008 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
To my parents
This page intentionally left blank
CONTENTS List of Figures List of Tables Acknowledgments ix xi xiii One Thinking about Globalization an Introduction 1 Two An Evolutionary Theory of Globalization 26 Three Four Five Six Drivers of Global Change Leading Sectors of the Informational Network Economy 71 Drivers of Leading Sector Change the Role of States, Organizations, and Individuals 135 Drivers of Leading Actor Change Interstate Rivalry at the Systemic Level 165 The Continuation of Change of the Global Complex System an Outlook on Its Future Development 198 Notes 212 References 228 Index 253
This page intentionally left blank
LIST OF FIGURES 2.1 Generational Leadership Long Cycle 30 2.2 Global Complex Systems Schematic 33 2.3 Complex Global System Development Matrix 52 2.4 System Leadership Transition 58 3.1 IT-share (%) of Equipment Investment, United States, 1960 1996 96 3.2 Semiconductor Sales ($ million), 1976 2002 97 3.3 Internet Growth, Users and Share of World Population, 1995 2002 103 3.4 Internet Host Survey Count, 1981 2002 103 3.5 Number of Base Pairs (billions) and Sequences (millions) in GenBank Database, 1982 2001 125 4.1 B/C Matrix of Organizational Interaction Forms 147 4.2 Cellular Organizational Structures 151 5.1 Major Power Rivalries, Major Power Wars, and Rivalry Environments, 1494 2000 173 5.2 Number of Major Power Rivalries in Maritime Commercial Rivalry Environment, 1494 1640 188 5.3 Number of Major Power Rivalries in Transition Phase 1 and Industrial Production Phase Rivalry Environment, 1640 1815 189 5.4 Number of Major Power Rivalries in Industrial Production System Rivalry Environment, 1740 1914 190 5.5 Number of Major Power Rivalries in Transition Phase 2 and Digital Commercial System Rivalry Environment, 1914 2000 191
This page intentionally left blank
LIST OF TABLES 2.1 Hypothesized Relationship between Learning Long Cycle, K-waves, Global Lead Industries, and Network Phases (All Years CE) 41 2.2 Phases of World System Evolution, McNeill, Wallerstein, Buzan and Little, and Modelski 43 2.3 Extended Evolutionary World Politics Model of Process of Globalization, 930 2080 CE 45 2.4 Evolutionary World Politics Matrix, Modern Era, 930 2230 CE 49 3.1 ICT Equipment Investment in OECD countries, Percentage of Nonresidential Gross Fixed Capital Formation, Total Economy, 1980 2000 94 3.2 Contribution of IT Equipment to Growth in Capital Equipment, United States, Percentage, 1993 1998 95 3.3 Number of Internet Hosts (gtlds Adjusted) and Web Sites, per 1,000 Inhabitants, July 1997 July 2001 104 3.4 Key Global Telecom Indicators for the World Telecommunication Service Sector, 1991 2001, US$ billions (Adjusted for Inf lation) 107 3.5 Mobile Subscribers in OECD Countries, 1990 1999 112 3.6 Mobile Subscribers, Worldwide, 1995 2001 114 3.7 Broadband Penetration, Subscribers per 100 Inhabitants, 2002 2006 122 3.8 National Shares (in percentage) of the Total Number of Publications in the Biotechnology and Applied Microbiology NSIOD Journal Category, 1986 1998 130 3.9 International Strategic Biotechnology Technology Alliances with at Least One Partner Based in the United States, 1980 1998 132
xii List of Tables 5.1 Major Power Rivalries 168 5.2 Major Global Wars, 1494 2000 177 5.3 Global Complex System Rivalry Environments, 1190 2000 179 5.4 Main Characteristics, Global Complex System Rivalry Environments, 1190 2030 185 5.5 Summary of Summary Statistics for Major Power Rivalries, Major Powers, Major Power Dyads, and Rivalry Environments 194 5.6 Analysis of the Effect of Rivalry Environments on Number of Rivalries per Year 195
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS In the course of writing this book I have run up many debts of gratitude and it is my great pleasure to acknowledge them here. In the first place, my thanks are owed to William Thompson whose unrivalled intellectual rigor, breadth of knowledge, and sharpness of mind has never failed to open up new intellectual paths for me to venture on (as well as countless holes in my argument). No other teacher has ever presented me with such wealth of knowledge, devotion of time, attention, and guidance in such an extraordinarily generous and noble fashion. It is because of him that this work marks not an end but rather a beginning of many new endeavors. My deep appreciation extends to the following colleagues, Karen Rasler, Jeff Hart, and David Audretsch. How this work could have been completed without their generous advice and critical assistance I know not. I am especially grateful to Sharon La Roche and Scott Feickert who were generous in lending their assistance and encouragement during my entire time at Indiana University. The responsibility for the opinions conveyed in these pages is, of course, mine alone. However, the ideas themselves were developed, often challenged, and refined in the course of many exchanges with fellow colleagues and friends, old and new. In particular, I would like to mention: Giovanni Arrighi, Volker Bornschier, Chris Chase- Dunn, Claudio Cioffi-Revilla, Michael Colaresi, Catherine Daily, Ulrich Erlhof, Clark Gibson, Nathan Griffith, Albrecht v. Harder, Kimberly Mealy, George Modelski, Ursula Rennstich, Julian Westerhout, and Nathan Zook. The team at Palgrave has provided me with much appreciated guidance and assistance along the editorial process this book would have been lacking in substance and style without their hard work and dedication. I also owe much gratitude to
xiv Acknowledgments Meghan Teich, who has constantly reaffirmed me in my endeavors. Finally, my largest debt remains to my parents. Their unquestioning support and more importantly, their guidance and boundless love have never failed me. No words could ever adequately express my gratitude.