Markets, He Wrote On Behalf of the CFMA Puget Sound By: Anirban Basu Sage Policy Group, Inc. February 15 th, 2017
Macro P.I. (Just How Hairy is the Global Situation?) Photo: Flixter.com
Estimated Growth in Output by Select Global Areas 2017 Projected Advanced economies Euro area France Germany Italy Spain Japan (2) United Kingdom Canada Australia (3) United States Emerging market & developing economies Sub-Saharan Africa Emerging & developing Europe Russia Emerging & developing Asia China India (4) Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, & Pakistan Latin America & the Caribbean Mexico Brazil 2017 Proj. Global Output Growth: 3.4% 1.9% 1.6% 1.3% 1.5% 0.7% 2.3% 0.8% 1.5% 1.9% 2.7% 2.3% 4.5% 2.8% 3.1% 1.1% 3.1% 1.2% 1.7% 0.2% 6.4% 6.5% 7.2% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% Annual % Change Source: International Monetary Fund: World Economic Outlook Update, January 2017; World Economic Outlook Database, October 2016. Notes: 1. Real effective exchange rates are assumed to remain constant at the levels prevailing during November 4-December 2, 2016. Economies are listed on the basis of economic size. The aggregated quarterly data are seasonally adjusted. 2. Japan's historical national accounts figures reflect a comprehensive revision by the national authorities, released in December 2016. The main revisions are the switch from the System of National Accounts 1993 to the System of National Accounts 2008 and the updating of the benchmark year from 2005 to 2011. 3. Australia's projected output growth is from the IMF's October 2016 WEO Database. 4. For India, data and forecasts are presented on a fiscal year basis and GDP from 2011 onward is based on GDP at market prices with FY2011/12 as a base year.
International Population Dynamics, 16 Largest Nations Nation Population (Millions) 2015 2050 Net Change % Change Nigeria 182.2 398.5 216.3 118.7% Ethiopia 99.4 188.5 89.1 89.6% Egypt 91.5 151.1 59.6 65.1% Pakistan 188.9 309.6 120.7 63.9% Philippines 100.7 148.3 47.6 47.2% India 1,311.1 1,705.3 394.3 30.1% Mexico 127.0 163.8 36.7 28.9% Bangladesh 161.0 202.2 41.2 25.6% Indonesia 257.6 322.2 64.7 25.1% United States 321.8 388.9 67.1 20.9% Vietnam 93.4 112.8 19.3 20.7% Brazil 207.8 238.3 30.4 14.6% China 1,376.0 1,348.1-28.0-2.0% Germany 80.7 74.5-6.2-7.7% Russian Federation 143.5 128.6-14.9-10.4% Japan 126.6 107.4-19.2-15.1% World 7.3 billion 9.7 billion 2.4 billion 32.3% Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision. *For statistical purposes, the data for China do not include Hong Kong and Macao, Special Administrative Regions (SAR) of China, and Taiwan Province of China.
Niamey Vice (Fertility Rates by Country, 2014) Rank* Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators Top 15 Bottom 15 Country Fertility Rate Rank* Country Fertility Rate 1 Niger 7.60 186 Germany 1.39 2 Somalia 6.46 186 Italy 1.39 3 Mali 6.23 188 Malta 1.38 4 Chad 6.16 189 Hungary 1.35 5 Angola 6.08 190 Slovak Republic 1.34 6 Congo, Dem. Rep. 6.01 191 Greece 1.30 7 Burundi 5.95 192 Poland 1.29 8 Uganda 5.78 193 Spain 1.27 9 Gambia, The 5.72 194 Bosnia and Herzegovina 1.26 10 Nigeria 5.65 194 Moldova 1.26 11 Burkina Faso 5.52 196 Singapore 1.25 12 Mozambique 5.36 197 Macao SAR, China 1.24 13 Zambia 5.35 198 Hong Kong SAR, China 1.23 14 Tanzania 5.15 200 Portugal 1.21 15 Malawi 5.13 200 Korea, Rep. 1.21 *Rank among 200 countries for which data are available for the most recent year (2014) **Total fertility rate represents the number of children that would be born to a woman if she were to live to the end of her childbearing years and bear children in accordance with age-specific fertility rates of the specified year.
Global Debt to Exacerbate Slow Growth? According to the IMF, global debt reached an all-time high in 2015; At $152 trillion, global gross debt of the nonfinancial sector now represents 225% of global GDP; About 2/3 of this debt is in the private sector; Current low nominal-growth environment is making adjustment difficult, setting the stage for a vicious feedback loop in which lower growth hampers deleveraging and the debt overhang exacerbates the slowdown. 2 Sources: 1. International Monetary Fund. October 2016. World Economic Outlook: Subdued Demand: Symptoms and Remedies. 2. International Monetary Fund (IMF). October 2016. Fiscal Monitor: Debt Use It Wisely. Note: The nonfinancial sector comprises the general government, nonfinancial firms, and households. Gross debt represents the unconsolidated liabilities of the three.
Jan-01 May-01 Sep-01 Jan-02 May-02 Sep-02 Jan-03 May-03 Sep-03 Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 $/Barrel NYMEX Crude Oil Future Prices in U.S. Dollars January 2001 through January 2017 $140 $120 $100 January 2017: $52.61 /Barrel $80 $60 $40 $20 $0 Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration *Month of January = average of daily prices from 1/3-1/31
Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 2010=100 Metal Price Indices January 2007 through January 2017 165 145 125 105 85 Precious Metals 65 Base Metals 45 Iron Ore 25 Source: The World Bank US$ Nominal Base metals include aluminum, copper, lead, nickel, tin and zinc. Precious metals include gold, platinum, and silver.
Jun-09 Oct-09 Feb-10 Jun-10 Oct-10 Feb-11 Jun-11 Oct-11 Feb-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Feb-13 Jun-13 Oct-13 Feb-14 Jun-14 Oct-14 Feb-15 Jun-15 Oct-15 Feb-16 Jun-16 Oct-16 Feb-17 Baltic Dry Index June 2009 through February 2017 5,000 4,000 3,000 February 13 th 688 2,000 1,000 0 Jan. 4, 1985: 1,000 Source: Quandl.com The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is a measure of the price of shipping major raw materials such as metals, grains, and fossil fuels by sea. The BDI is a composite of 3 sub-indices, each covering a different carrier size: Capesize, Panamax, and Supramax.
USA CSI (Commercial Situation Investigation) Photo: AMCNetworks.com
1990Q1 1990Q3 1991Q1 1991Q3 1992Q1 1992Q3 1993Q1 1993Q3 1994Q1 1994Q3 1995Q1 1995Q3 1996Q1 1996Q3 1997Q1 1997Q3 1998Q1 1998Q3 1999Q1 1999Q3 2000Q1 2000Q3 2001Q1 2001Q3 2002Q1 2002Q3 2003Q1 2003Q3 2004Q1 2004Q3 2005Q1 2005Q3 2006Q1 2006Q3 2007Q1 2007Q3 2008Q1 2008Q3 2009Q1 2009Q3 2010Q1 2010Q3 2011Q1 2011Q3 2012Q1 2012Q3 2013Q1 2013Q3 2014Q1 2014Q3 2015Q1 2015Q3 2016Q1 2016Q3 % Change from Preceding Period (SAAR) Gross Domestic Product 1990Q1 through 2016Q4* 8% 6% 2016Q4: +1.9% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis *1 st (Advance) Estimate
Percent Change from Preceding Period (SAAR) SAAR (%) Contributions to GDP Growth by Component 2016Q1 2016Q4* 4.0 3.5 3.5 2.9 3.0 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2.0 2.0 1.70 1.67 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.8 1.4 1.9 1.0 0.0-1.0-2.0 1.1 0.3-0.3 0.1 0.21 0.9 0.2 0.0-1.70-0.6-1.3 0.5 0.0 GDP -3.0 Personal Consumption Government Spending Net Exports Gross Investment Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis *1 st (Advance) Estimate 2016Q4: +1.9%
Jan-02 May-02 Sep-02 Jan-03 May-03 Sep-03 Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 Thousands Net Change in U.S. Jobs, BLS January 2002 through January 2017 600 400 200 0-200 -400 January 2017: +227K -600-800 -1000 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
National Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector January 2016 v. January 2017 Professional and Business Services 574 Education and Health Services 556 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 372 Leisure and Hospitality 347 Financial Activities 190 Construction 170 Government 162 Other Services 70 Information Manufacturing -46 4 All told 2,343K jobs gained Mining and Logging -56-100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 Thousands, SA Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 U.S. Employment to Population Ratio January 2000 January 2017 65.0 64.0 63.0 62.0 January 2017: 59.9% 61.0 60.0 59.0 58.0 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Note: Civilian employment-population ratio, population 16 years and over, seasonally adjusted (SA).
Jan-00 May-00 Sep-00 Jan-01 May-01 Sep-01 Jan-02 May-02 Sep-02 Jan-03 May-03 Sep-03 Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 Monthly Net Change (thousands) National Construction Employment Monthly Net Change January 2000 through January 2017 100 50 0-50 -100-150 -200 Industry Sector Jan-17 Dec-16 Jan-16 1-net 12-net 12-% Construction 6,809.0 6,773.0 6,639.0 36.0 170.0 2.6% Residential Building 761.8 752.8 716.9 9.0 44.9 6.3% Nonresidential Building 753.4 749.5 751.6 3.9 1.8 0.2% Heavy & Civil Engineering 938.9 932.6 943.3 6.3-4.4-0.5% Specialty Trade Contractors 4,354.5 4,338.5 4,227.0 16.0 127.5 3.0% January 2017: +36K Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
State-by-state Growth in Construction Jobs December 2015 v. December 2016 STATE Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Year-overyear Ch. ( 000) STATE Year-overyear Ch. ( 000) STATE Year-overyear Ch. ( 000) FLORIDA 22.3 MISSOURI 3.5 MARYLAND* -0.3 CALIFORNIA 20.9 NEW JERSEY 3.2 ALASKA -0.3 WASHINGTON 13.5 SOUTH CAROLINA 2.7 MAINE -0.7 COLORADO 11.0 OHIO 1.9 NEBRASKA* -0.9 NEVADA 11.0 WEST VIRGINIA 1.6 DELAWARE* -1.0 MINNESOTA 9.3 NEW MEXICO 1.4 WYOMING -1.1 MASSACHUSETTS 8.8 HAWAII* 1.3 ARKANSAS -1.2 ARIZONA 8.3 NEW HAMPSHIRE 1.0 MONTANA -1.2 OREGON 7.6 INDIANA 0.8 CONNECTICUT -1.9 IOWA 6.9 SOUTH DAKOTA* 0.7 MISSISSIPPI -2.3 GEORGIA 6.5 VIRGINIA 0.6 NORTH DAKOTA -2.4 TENNESSEE* 6.4 IDAHO 0.5 KANSAS -4.2 NORTH CAROLINA 6.0 LOUISIANA 0.5 TEXAS -4.5 WISCONSIN 4.0 OKLAHOMA 0.3 KENTUCKY -5.0 MICHIGAN 3.9 VERMONT 0.2 ALABAMA -6.1 PENNSYLVANIA 3.9 DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA* -0.1 NEW YORK -7.8 UTAH 3.8 RHODE ISLAND -0.2 ILLINOIS -9.7 U.S. Year-over-year Net Change December 2016: +145K January 2017: +170K *Construction, Mining, and Logging are included in one industry.
Washington Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups (SA) December 2015 v. December 2016 Absolute Change Trade, Transportation & Utilities 23,300 Education & Health Services 18,100 Construction Government Professional & Business Services Leisure & Hospitality Information 13,500 12,400 9,900 9,800 7,200 Other Services Financial Activities 3,400 5,800 WA Total: +97.4K; +3.0% Mining and Logging Manufacturing -6,200 200 US Total (SA): +2,242K; +1.6% -10,000-5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics *According to the Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) series WA added 136,681 jobs between December 2015 and December 2016.
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA MSA Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups (NSA) December 2015 v. December 2016 Absolute Change Trade, Transportation & Utilities 16,600 Education & Health Services Government Leisure & Hospitality Information 9,700 8,300 8,300 8,000 Construction Professional & Business Services 6,800 5,500 MSA Total (NSA): +64.6K; +3.4% Other Services Financial Activities Mining and Logging Manufacturing -6,500 0 5,200 2,700 WA Total (SA): +97.4K; +3.0% US Total (SA): +2,242K; +1.6% -10,000-5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Employment Growth, U.S. States (SA) December 2015 v. December 2016 Percent Change RANK STATE % RANK STATE % RANK STATE % 1 OREGON 3.3 16 SOUTH CAROLINA 1.7 35 DELAWARE 0.5 2 FLORIDA 3.1 19 TENNESSEE 1.6 35 ILLINOIS 0.5 3 NEVADA 3.0 20 MINNESOTA 1.5 35 IOWA 0.5 3 WASHINGTON 3.0 21 SOUTH DAKOTA 1.4 35 PENNSYLVANIA 0.5 5 UTAH 2.8 22 ARIZONA 1.3 39 ARKANSAS 0.4 6 GEORGIA 2.4 22 VIRGINIA 1.3 40 NEW JERSEY 0.3 7 DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA 2.3 24 NEW YORK 1.2 40 NEW MEXICO 0.3 7 MISSOURI 2.3 25 MARYLAND 1.1 40 WEST VIRGINIA 0.3 9 HAWAII 2.1 26 ALABAMA 1.0 43 MAINE 0.0 9 MASSACHUSETTS 2.1 26 WISCONSIN 1.0 44 CONNECTICUT -0.1 11 CALIFORNIA 2.0 28 MONTANA 0.9 45 LOUISIANA -0.2 11 NORTH CAROLINA 2.0 29 INDIANA 0.8 46 OKLAHOMA -0.3 13 COLORADO 1.9 29 OHIO 0.8 47 KANSAS -0.7 13 IDAHO 1.9 31 NEBRASKA 0.7 48 MISSISSIPPI -1.0 15 TEXAS 1.8 31 RHODE ISLAND 0.7 49 ALASKA -1.4 16 MICHIGAN 1.7 31 VERMONT 0.7 50 NORTH DAKOTA -1.8 16 NEW HAMPSHIRE 1.7 34 KENTUCKY 0.6 51 WYOMING -2.8 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics U.S. Year-over-year Percent Change: +1.6%
Employment Growth, 24 Largest Metros (NSA) December 2015 v. December 2016 Percent Change Rank MSA % Rank MSA % 1 Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL MSA 4.2 12 San Diego-Carlsbad, CA MSA 2.0 2 Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA MSA 3.4 12 San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA MSA 2.0 3 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX MSA 3.3 15 Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC MSA 1.7 4 Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO MSA 3.2 15 Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI MSA 1.7 5 Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA MSA 6 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA MSA 2.7 18 7 St. Louis, MO-IL MSA (1) 2.5 19 8 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL MSA Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 2.9 17 Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD MSA 1.6 2.4 19 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA MSA Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI MSA Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ- DE-MD MSA 9 Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA MSA 2.2 19 Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ MSA 1.4 9 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL MSA 2.2 22 11 12 Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA- MD-WV MSA Boston-Cambridge-Nashua, MA-NH Metro NECTA *CES Survey New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA MSA 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3 2.1 23 Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI MSA 0.7 2.0 24 Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX MSA 0.5
Unemployment Rates, 24 Largest Metros (NSA) December 2016 Rank MSA UR Rank MSA UR Boston-Cambridge-Nashua, MA-NH Metro 1 2.5 13 Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL MSA 4.2 NECTA 2 Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO MSA 2.6 13 San Diego-Carlsbad, CA MSA 4.2 3 Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA- MD-WV MSA 3.4 15 3 San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA MSA 3.4 15 5 Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI MSA Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA MSA Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ- DE-MD MSA 4.4 4.4 3.6 17 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL MSA 4.5 6 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX MSA 3.7 18 Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC MSA 4.6 7 Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD MSA 4.0 19 Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI MSA 4.8 7 Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA MSA 4.0 20 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL MSA 7 Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA MSA 4.0 21 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA MSA 5.0 7 St. Louis, MO-IL MSA (1) 4.0 22 11 New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA MSA 4.1 23 Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA MSA Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX MSA 11 Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ MSA 4.1 24 Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI MSA 5.4 4.9 5.2 5.3 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics U.S. Unemployment Rate December 2016: 4.7% January 2017: 4.8% 1. Area boundaries do not reflect official OMB definitions.
21 Jump Street (And Other Addresses of Interest) Photo: TheMoveDatabase.org
Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Architecture Billings Index January 2008 through December 2016 60.0 55.0 50.0 45.0 40.0 35.0 December 2016: 55.9 30.0 Source: The American Institute of Architects
Dec-06 Apr-07 Aug-07 Dec-07 Apr-08 Aug-08 Dec-08 Apr-09 Aug-09 Dec-09 Apr-10 Aug-10 Dec-10 Apr-11 Aug-11 Dec-11 Apr-12 Aug-12 Dec-12 Apr-13 Aug-13 Dec-13 Apr-14 Aug-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 Aug-15 Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16 Dec-16 SAAR ($billions) Nonresidential Construction Put-in-Place December 2006 through December 2016 800 700 Public Private Oct-08: $719.5B Dec-16: $708.2B 600 Jan-11: $506.8B 500 400 300 200 100 0 Source: U.S. Census Bureau
National Nonresidential Construction Spending by Subsector December 2015 v. December 2016 Office Lodging Amusement and recreation Conservation and development Commercial Health care Educational Communication Highway and street Power Water supply Public safety Religious Manufacturing Transportation Sewage and waste disposal -18.0% -0.1% -0.3% -2.8% -3.1% -5.9% -6.5% 7.1% 5.0% 2.6% 1.4% 13.0% 12.8% 12.0% 19.9% Total Nonresidential Construction YOY: +$31.25B; +4.6% 31.0% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 12-month % Change Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Billions of $US Commercial/Multifamily Offshore Investment Sales Volumes Reach New Heights in 2015 $90 $80 $70 $76.2 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $0 $45.0 $35.0 $30.1 $30.9 $26.8 $21.3 $19.0 $19.6 $12.5 $14.0 $8.5 $3.9 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: Jones Lang LaSalle; Real Capital Analytics Foreign Investment Increases 146.6 Percent in 2015 to $76.2b Note: Among transactions larger than $5.0 million
Top Markets for Foreign Office Investment, 2015 Annual Foreign Office Investment Volume New York Washington, DC Boston Seattle Bellevue Chicago Miami Atlanta Los Angeles San Francisco Dallas/Fort Worth Silicon Valley Houston $2,323 $1,935 $1,184 $995 $709 $602 $515 $394 $347 $249 $172 $11,237 $0 $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000 $12,000 Millions of $US Source: Jones Lang LaSalle; Real Capital Analytics
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016YTD Foreign Office Investment Activity, as of 2016Q3 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Foreign Participation as a % of Total Office Volume 14.9% Foreign Office Investment by Destination Market (as a % of Total, 2016YTD) New York San Francisco Boston Washington, DC Dallas-Fort Worth Los Angeles Seattle-Bellevue Miami Northern New Jersey Chicago Atlanta Austin Philadelphia San Diego 8.4% 7.1% 6.8% 5.6% 4.8% 4.8% 2.8% 2.1% 1.9% 1.6% 1.4% 1.1% 1.1% 45.5% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Source: Jones Lang LaSalle; Real Capital Analytics Note: Among transactions larger than $5.0 million; includes all office markets which received > 1.0% of offshore capital. Primary markets continue to capture the lion s share of inbound capital, receiving 78.2% of this capital YTD.
Jan-01 May-01 Sep-01 Jan-02 May-02 Sep-02 Jan-03 May-03 Sep-03 Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 12-month % Change Inputs to Construction PPI (NSA) January 2001 January 2017 15% 10% Jan. 2016 v. Jan. 2017: +3.8% 5% 0% -5% -10% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Construction Materials PPI (NSA) 12-month % Change as of January 2017 Natural Gas Crude Petroleum 77.5% 81.8% Crude Energy Materials 55.2% Iron and Steel Steel Mill Products Softwood Lumber Concrete Products Nonferrous Wire and Cable Fabricated Structural Metal Products Prepared Asphalt & Tar Roofing/Siding Products Plumbing Fixtures and Fittings Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 17.6% 11.4% 7.7% 3.0% 2.5% 2.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 12-month % Change
Down to The Wire Photo: RecapGuide.com
Sales Growth by Type of Business January 2016 v. January 2017* Gasoline Stations Internet, etc. Retailers Health & Personal Care Stores Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers Food Services & Drinking Places Miscellaneous Store Retailers Building Material & Garden Supplies Dealers Clothing & Clothing Accessories Stores Food & Beverage Stores Furniture & Home Furn. Stores General Merchandise Stores Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book & Music Stores Electronics & Appliance Stores -0.8% -1.3% 1.2% 0.4% 2.5% 2.2% 4.1% 3.8% 5.6% 6.8% 8.5% 12.0% 14.2% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 12-month % change Source: U.S. Census Bureau *January 2017 advanced estimate Total Retail Sales: +5.6% YOY
Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Savings Rate (%) U.S. Saving Rate, January 2005 December 2016 (Savings as Percentage of Personal Disposable Income) 12.0 10.0 8.0 December 2016: 5.4% 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
2000Q1 2000Q4 2001Q3 2002Q2 2003Q1 2003Q4 2004Q3 2005Q2 2006Q1 2006Q4 2007Q3 2008Q2 2009Q1 2009Q4 2010Q3 2011Q2 2012Q1 2012Q4 2013Q3 2014Q2 2015Q1 2015Q4 2016Q3 U.S. Gross Private Domestic Investment (SAAR) % Change from Previous Quarter, 2000Q1 2016Q4* 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0-10.0-20.0-30.0-40.0 2016Q4: +10.7% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis *1 st (Advance) Estimate
Aug-07 Dec-07 Apr-08 Aug-08 Dec-08 Apr-09 Aug-09 Dec-09 Apr-10 Aug-10 Dec-10 Apr-11 Aug-11 Dec-11 Apr-12 Aug-12 Dec-12 Apr-13 Aug-13 Dec-13 Apr-14 Aug-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 Aug-15 Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16 Dec-16 One-month Percent Change Conference Board Leading Economic Indicators Index August 2007 through December 2016 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% December 2016: 124.6 where 2010: 100-1.5% Source: Conference Board
The Closer Global economy remains weak, and correspondingly... ; Global money has continued to pour into America in search of yield and safety, including into commercial real estate that was particularly true in 2015, a bit less true in 2016; Inflationary pressures are on the rise so, too, are interest rates that could begin to squeeze asset prices in 2017, particularly if expected tax cuts are not passed into law; There are indications of minibubbles forming in commercial real estate, particularly in office, lodging and multifamily segments; But tax cuts, stimulus, and more defense spending should see us through 2017-18; There are also longer-term structural considerations, including the national debt and pending insolvencies of Medicare and Social Security the longerterm outlook may be deteriorating even as the short-run improves; 2017 shaping up to be solid, but beyond 2018, we may have some issues... Photo: Google *Kyra Sedgwick as Brenda Leigh Johnson
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