A Vision of Our Society s Mobility and Communication: Summary of Workshop in Zurich Hearing is a fascinating sensation Dr. Harry J. Witchel, Senior Lecturer and Discipline Leader in Physiology, Author of You Are What You Hear Herzogenrath, 23rd September 2011
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CONTEXT: Fuel Consumption Increased Total km of driving SPECIFIC FUEL CONSUMPTION LITRES / 100 km TOTAL CAR FUEL CONSUMPTION MILLIONS OF TONS OF FUEL 3 Dr. Harry J. Witchel
Our Goal: Consensus predictions concerning the next 25 years for mobility and communication An interdisciplinary view, where we would stimulate, explore and integrate 4 Dr. Harry J. Witchel
Unique Aspects of This Approach Soundscape & Acoustics Strongly Inter-disciplinary Engineering of Communication & Mobility Environment: Soundscape & Acoustics Sociology, Economics, Leadership & Psychobiology Commercial & academic collaborative effort International with a focus on Europe 5 Dr. Harry J. Witchel
Caveats for Predicting the Future Others have made incorrect predictions Technology is not the only obstacle 6 Dr. Harry J. Witchel
Context: Trends Now and in the Future From West to East China expanding world dominance economically, and later academically Population growth Congestion & migration of populations Environmental challenges Scarcity and competition for resources 7 Dr. Harry J. Witchel
CONTRIBUTIONS TO SOCIETY FROM TECHNOLOGY energy resources social mobility transportation money finances technology efficiency future of human being and well-being healthy well-being quality of environment ecology education communication & networking information peace safety tolerance comfortable life lifestyle 8 Dr. Harry J. Witchel
Future of Communication: Improved communication technologies will increase face-to-face meetings Assistance vs Substitution We will be carrying more/all data about ourselves medical, financial, possibly social 3 levels of computing: palm, desk, wall For unhackable privacy in the future, one must make personal decision to disconnect 9 Dr. Harry J. Witchel
Future of Transport: There will be a Portfolio of transportation Changes will be via revolution AND evolution There will be opportunities from new (electric) drive train Controversy and disagreement as to exactly how extensive changes will be (cf. flying car) However, there is agreement that certain countries will lead the way Germany and northern continental Europe 10 Dr. Harry J. Witchel
METHODS evolution innovation revolution 11 Dr. Harry J. Witchel
EVOLUTION For Germany 12 Dr. Harry J. Witchel
History of the Unfortunate Artwork at the Dolder Grand bar 13 Dr. Harry J. Witchel
FACTORS DETERMINING SUCCESSFUL IMPLEMENTATION OF NEW TECHNOLOGIES attitude of car manufactures customer reactions infrastructure future of mobility and communication governments incentives price & reliability space at mega-cities 14 Dr. Harry J. Witchel
Subjective Predictions: % New Cars Sold without Combustion Who Where 2020 2035 Genuit Germany 10 % 50 % Schulte- Fortkamp New generation 15 % 35 % Pohlmeier Germany 5 % 10 % Boulouchos Mid Euro << < 10 % Maffei Euro Mean 5 % 8 % Rammert Germany 3 % 7 % Rosenstein USA 2 % 5 % Gierlich Germany 2 % 4 % Witchel UK < 0.1 % < 1 % 15 Dr. Harry J. Witchel
One Possible Transportation Possibility for Future: Self-mobility Systems: Minimalist A wide range of options Some technical progress has already been made It will have to be integrated with rest of infrastructure 16 Dr. Harry J. Witchel
Car Acoustics There are already legal requirements Our group prefer a soundscape approach Sound must work for 1 and for 10 cars Electric car sound can be accepted not universal train people 17 Dr. Harry J. Witchel
Future of Soundscape: All agreed that our soundscapes will improve in future The consumer interpretation of what is annoyance from noise can vary in unscientific ways Thus the academic interpretation of experiments is controversial Future progress will come through interpretation and experience: practise, not just laboratory data 18 Dr. Harry J. Witchel
Musical Phone Booths 19 Dr. Harry J. Witchel
Zurich Airport Sky-metro Bird singing Cow Cow bell Yodelling A choir 20 Dr. Harry J. Witchel
FACTORS DETERMINING SUCCESSFUL IMPLEMENTATION OF NEW TECHNOLOGIES attitude of car manufactures customer reactions infrastructure future of mobility and communication governments incentives price & reliability space at mega-cities 21 Dr. Harry J. Witchel
Questions for Everyone What sort of institutional support is needed and what will society supply? What sort of infrastructure is needed and what will society supply? 22 Dr. Harry J. Witchel
What Sort of Infrastructure is Needed and what will Society Supply? Computational Modelling Interdisciplinary Technology and advancement will have to constantly keep in mind competing with China fighting piracy assuming piracy will be advantageous for implementation & spread of technology 23 Dr. Harry J. Witchel
Technology at the Dolder Grand Bang & Olufson 66 24 Dr. Harry J. Witchel
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Cargo Ships are most efficient As per previous 1000 years Local delivery is expensive Road transport will increase Railway transport will increase 26 Dr. Harry J. Witchel