GLOBAL ENERGY TRANSFORMATION
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GLOBAL ENERGY TRANSFORMATION FOUR NECESSARY STEPS TO MAKE CLEAN ENERGY THE NEXT SUCCESS STORY Mats Larsson Management Consultant
Mats Larsson 2009 All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of this publication may be made without written permission. No portion of this publication may be reproduced, copied or transmitted save with written permission or in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, or under the terms of any licence permitting limited copying issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency, Saffron House, 6-10 Kirby Street, London EC1N 8TS. Any person who does any unauthorized act in relation to this publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages. The author has asserted his right to be identified as the author of this work in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. First published 2009 by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN Palgrave Macmillan in the UK is an imprint of Macmillan Publishers Limited, registered in England, company number 785998, of Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS. Palgrave Macmillan in the US is a division of St Martin s Press LLC, 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY 10010. Palgrave Macmillan is the global academic imprint of the above companies and has companies and representatives throughout the world. Palgrave and Macmillan are registered trademarks in the United States, the United Kingdom, Europe and other countries. ISBN 978-1-349-31055-5 ISBN 978-0-230-24409-2 (ebook) DOI 10.1057/9780230244092 This book is printed on paper suitable for recycling and made from fully managed and sustained forest sources. Logging, pulping and manufacturing processes are expected to conform to the environmental regulations of the country of origin. A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. A catalog record for this book is available from the Library of Congress. 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 09
Dedication To my wife Bodil and my daughters Cajsa and Maja with thanks for all their support through the writing of this and previous books. Global Energy Transformation Institute, www.getinstitute.com
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Contents Acknowledgments ix 1 Executive Summary 1 Part I The Challenge 11 2 Who Should Read This Book and Why? 13 3 The Sustainability Challenge 19 4 Four Scenarios for the Future 27 5 Three Examples of Large-Scale Transformation Efforts from 42 American Twentieth-Century History 6 Gradual Change Has Caused the Need for Energy 60 Transformation 7 Thoughts on Planning and Market Economics 87 Part II Organizational Learning and Change Management 105 8 Two Levels of Control Executive Direction and Program 107 and Project Management 9 Tools for Program and Project Executive Direction 111 10 The Standard Tools of Program and Project Management 118 11 Change Tools 135 12 New Tools for Learning and Analysis 144 13 Financial Tools 151 14 Change Happens in Steps 157 15 A Step Change Model for Energy 166 16 Change in Different Sectors of the Economy 196 Part III The Program Structure 199 17 The Transformation Program 201 18 Transforming Transportation 208 vii
viii Contents 19 Transforming Heating and Utilities 238 20 Transforming Industrial Processes 251 21 Transforming the Built Environment 263 22 Transforming Agriculture 268 23 Behavior and Work Life Change 272 24 The Program A Very Rough Outline 278 Conclusion 285 Notes 287 References 291 Index 293
Acknowledgments I would like to thank my friend Stuart Pledger, who helped with the development of the idea for the book in the early stages and who also contributed to the climate change discussion and to the part on his method for collaborative problem solving, the Collaboration Café. Thanks also to Julian Darley and Richard Heinberg of The Post Carbon Institute in California. The e-mail questions you asked during the writing of the book generated ideas such as the global embrace and added to my thoughts on organizational learning in society. Peter Wennström, whom I met by chance at Schiphol airport, enthusiastically contributed ideas for the title of the book. Mikael Edholm, at the Swedish Trade Council, contributed his extensive knowledge about prediction markets. Thanks to Thomas Björkman, Johanna Moberg, Glenn Widerström and Urban Bergström at the Swedish Energy Agency for support in the development of ideas on energy improvement of supply chains. Thanks also to Håkan Knutsson and Per Simonsson at Sustainable Business Hub. Our discussions gave me the ideas that generated the part about communication of ideas that drive behavior change toward sustainability. I also thank Hans Enocson, Nordic General Manager of GE, for generously giving his time and contributing information about the GE Ecomagination project. Similarly, Inge Horkeby, Director at Volvo AB, in a series of meetings over the past 2 years, explained to me the opportunities of energy transformation in the transportation sector. Harry Frank, former Research Director at ABB and Professor at the Royal Swedish Academy of the Sciences, provided early insight in the need for leadership in the process of energy systems transformation. Many thanks also to Lennart Swanström, Senior Scientist at ABB, and Pontus Cerin, Assistant Professor at the Swedish Environmental Institute, for contributing their knowledge about life cycle analysis. I wish to thank Eva Ståhl, Fredrik Adolfsson and Thomas Bergmark, managers at IKEA, for the generous contributions of information about this company and its projects in the areas of energy and the environment. Thanks to Bengt Gebert, Jenny Bramell, Kjell Persson, Curt Schröder, Ingela Bogren and Åsa Dahl for daily encouragement and support. I am also grateful to the team at Palgrave Macmillan led by Stephen Rutt for their support and ideas. ix