Computational Social Sciences

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A series of authored and edited monographs that utilize quantitative and computational methods to model, analyze and interpret large-scale social phenomena. Titles within the series contain methods and practices that test and develop theories of complex social processes through bottom-up modeling of social interactions. Of particular interest is the study of the co-evolution of modern communication technology and social behavior and norms, in connection with emerging issues such as trust, risk, security and privacy in novel socio-technical environments. is explicitly transdisciplinary: quantitative methods from fields such as dynamical systems, artificial intelligence, network theory, agent based modeling, and statistical mechanics are invoked and combined with state-of the-art mining and analysis of large data sets to help us understand social agents, their interactions on and offline, and the effect of these interactions at the macro level. Topics include, but are not limited to social networks and media, dynamics of opinions, cultures and conflicts, socio-technical co-evolution and social psychology. Computational Social Sciences will also publish monographs and selected edited contributions from specialized conferences and workshops specifically aimed at communicating new findings to a large transdisciplinary audience. A fundamental goal of the series is to provide a single forum within which commonalities and differences in the workings of this field may be discerned, hence leading to deeper insight and understanding. Series Editors Elisa Bertino Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN, USA Claudio Cioffi-Revilla George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, USA Jacob Foster University of California, Los Angeles, CA, USA Nigel Gilbert University of Surrey, Guildford, UK Jennifer Golbeck University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA Bruno Gonçalves New York University, New York, NY, USA James A. Kitts Columbia University, Amherst, MA, USA Larry Liebovitch Queens College, City University of New York, Flushing, NY, USA Sorin A. Matei Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN, USA Anton Nijholt University of Twente, Enschede, The Netherlands Andrzej Nowak University of Warsaw, Warsaw, Poland Robert Savit University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA Flaminio Squazzoni University of Brescia, Brescia, Italy Alessandro Vinciarelli University of Glasgow, Glasgow, Scotland, UK More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/11784

Andrew Pilny Marshall Scott Poole Editors Group Processes Data-Driven Computational Approaches

Editors Andrew Pilny University of Kentucky Lexington, KY, USA Marshall Scott Poole University of Illinois Urbana, IL, USA ISSN 2509-9574 ISBN 978-3-319-48940-7 DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-48941-4 ISSN 2509-9582 (electronic) ISBN 978-3-319-48941-4 (ebook) Library of Congress Control Number: 2017930624 Springer International Publishing AG 2017 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. Printed on acid-free paper This Springer imprint is published by Springer Nature The registered company is Springer International Publishing AG The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland

Contents 1 Introduction... 1 Andrew Pilny and Marshall Scott Poole 2 Response Surface Models to Analyze Nonlinear Group Phenomena... 5 Andrew Pilny and Amanda R. Slone 3 Causal Inference Using Bayesian Networks... 29 Iftekhar Ahmed, Jeffrey Proulx, and Andrew Pilny 4 A Relational Event Approach to Modeling Behavioral Dynamics... 51 Carter T. Butts and Christopher Steven Marcum 5 Text Mining Tutorial... 93 Natalie J. Lambert 6 Sequential Synchronization Analysis... 119 Toshio Murase, Marshall Scott Poole, Raquel Asencio, and Joseph McDonald 7 Group Analysis Using Machine Learning Techniques... 145 Ankit Sharma and Jaideep Srivastava 8 Simulation and Virtual Experimentation: Grounding with Empirical Data... 181 Deanna Kennedy and Sara McComb v